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我国是世界养禽大国,禽蛋产量位居世界首位。随着我国捉产品市场从计划流通体制向国家宏观调控下的自由流通体制过渡,禽蛋市场价格的周期性波动益加频繁。如何筛选出变量因子,建立起因子模型,实现适时、动态地监测禽蛋短期市场价格波动状况,不仅关系我国禽蛋产业的健康发展,而且可以为养殖户提供即时的市场信息和市场走向,增强养殖户的抗市场风险能力,促进农民增收。本文在系统分析禽蛋市场价格的种类及主要影响因素的基础上,依据价格是商品供求变化的最终表现这一特征及现有数据基础,在禽蛋价格主要影响因素中筛选出4个能够及时、全面获取数据的相关因子作为自变量因子,为禽蛋短期市场价格进行因子预测模型的建立奠定基础。 相似文献
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国内市场方面,2010年我国禽蛋市场平稳发展,禽蛋产量较去年同比增长0.8%,居民人均鲜蛋消费达10kg。进入2011年第一季度,全国鸡蛋零售价格同比、环比均大幅上涨,但季度内先升后降,波动幅度大于往年;蛋雏鸡价格、蛋鸡配合饲料价格高位运行,同比大幅上涨;蛋料比价先升后降,养殖户仍有赢利;在禽蛋贸易方面,1-2月我国禽蛋进口总量同比大幅下降,进口总额同比大幅增长;禽蛋出口量和出口金额同比均有所增加。国际市场方面,2011年第一季度美国鸡蛋批发价格同比、环比均大幅下降,加拿大鸡蛋批发价格同比、环比均上涨。展望未来,国内鸡蛋价格总体仍处于调整期,在第二季度以先降后升的态势发展。美国方面,2011年鸡蛋产量将继续小幅增加。 相似文献
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近几年,在多因素的复合作用下,我国农产品市场的波动频率和幅度日益加剧,传统的农产品价格形成机制中注入许多新的不确定性变量,因此,构建和完善我国农产品价格形成机制已成为当前全面深化改革的一项重要内容。本文从制度经济学层面分析了农产品价格形成机制的内涵,在进行国内外比较分析的基础上,提出一个包含目标价格评估机制、市场体系完善机制、农业补贴机制、进出口调控机制、市场应急处理机制等五大机制在内的以目标价格为核心的农产品价格形成机制框架模式。 相似文献
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苹果短期价格影响因素分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
掌握农产品价格变化趋势,可以为政府市场宏观调控提供信息支撑,并引导农民及企业正确进行微观决策。在市场经济发展和农产品流通体制改革中,农产品价格的决定更为贴近于市场规律。随着人民生活水平的提高,水果成为居民消费的必要组成部分。本文首先对苹果价格进行了定性分析,其次通过对北京新发地批发市场苹果短期批发价格建立回归模型进行定量分析。结果表明,模型能很好地模拟苹果的短期价格,为农产品市场信息的准确判定提供了重要方法。 相似文献
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2009年是极不寻常的一年,国际金融危机蔓延对世界经济产生了重大影响。回顾2009年,国内鸡蛋零售价格一波三折,总体是震荡上升的。引起鸡蛋价格波动的原因来自多方面,主要包括饲料成本不断上涨、蛋鸡存栏出现短期变化、季节效应和节日效应明显、突发事件引发短暂剧烈波动等。国际市场方面,美国鸡蛋批发价格上半年受金融危机影响甚大,下半年随着经济形势好转价格回升明显,全年呈现"V"型反弹;加拿大鸡蛋批发价格较为平稳;国际期货市场价格年底大幅跳水。 相似文献
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Sarah E. Dumas Luke Lungu Nathan Mulambya Whiteson Daka Erin McDonald Emily Steubing Tamika Lewis Katherine Backel Jarra Jange Benjamin Lucio-Martinez Dale Lewis Alexander J. Travis 《Food Security》2016,8(3):507-520
In Zambia’s Luangwa Valley, highly variable rainfall and lack of education, agricultural inputs, and market access constrain agricultural productivity, trapping smallholder farmers in chronic poverty and food insecurity. Human and animal disease (e.g. HIV and Newcastle Disease, respectively), further threaten the resilience of poor families. To cope with various shocks and stressors, many farmers employ short-term coping strategies that threaten ecosystem resilience. Community Markets for Conservation (COMACO) utilizes an agribusiness model to alleviate poverty and food insecurity through conservation farming, market development and value-added food production. COMACO promotes household, agricultural and ecological resilience along two strategic lines: improving recovery from shocks (mitigation) and reducing the risk of shock occurrence. Here we focus on two of COMACO’s poultry interventions and present data showing that addressing health and management constraints within the existing village poultry system resulted in significantly improved productivity and profitability. However, once reliable productivity was achieved, farmers preferred to sell chickens rather than eat either the birds or their eggs. Sales of live birds were largely outside the community to avoid price suppression; in contrast, the sale of eggs from community-operated, semi-intensive egg production facilities was invariably within the communities. These facilities resulted in significant increases in both producer income and community consumption of eggs. This intervention therefore has the potential to improve not only producers’ economic resilience, but also resilience tied to the food security and physical health of the entire community. 相似文献
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北京市蔬菜批发市场行情变动分析 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
对北京市蔬菜批发市场行情监测结果表明,北京市蔬菜市场价格存在年度间交替波动的特点,而且在同一时期内,不同蔬菜的价格和上市量变化存在不同的形态特征,大体可分为一峰一谷型、两峰两谷型、量价趋同型和价格平稳型等四种类型。 相似文献
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世界商品纸浆的十年沧桑 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文回顾了1985 ̄1995年间,世界商品纸浆的产量,价格和贸易情况;并与1975 ̄1985年间,世界商品纸浆价格波动情况,进行对比。一般认为:今后世界商品纸浆的生产,将继续发展。在市场竞争激烈的情况下,世界商品浆价格,不可避免地会发生波动。希望能建立新的市场供、求关系、平稳世界商品纸浆价格波动的频率和幅度,尽量减少因价格波动而产生的损失。 相似文献
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本文介绍了1998年我国肉类产销概况,预测了1999年我国肉食市场的产销走势。1998年因供大于求,肉禽蛋价格剧跌,消费者得到了实惠;1999年,畜牧生产将持续稳步上升,肉蛋商品总体价格水平也将比较稳定。为了满足消费者不断提高的要求,生产经营者必须以市场为导向,注重提高商品质量,才能在竞争中取胜,也才能使供求两旺。 相似文献
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《Food additives & contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure & risk assessment》2013,30(11):1834-1839
The use of antibiotics in poultry can result in residues in eggs. The joint FAO/WHO committee recommended banning the use of chloramphenicol (CAP) in food animals due to its public health hazards of aplastic anaemia, leukaemia, allergy, antibacterial resistance and carcinogenicity. This paper determines the prevalence of CAP residues in chicken eggs and assesses the usage and awareness of its ban amongst poultry farmers in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria. A cross-sectional survey of registered poultry farmers in FCT was conducted using questionnaires to determine CAP administration in poultry and awareness of its ban. Pooled egg samples were collected from each poultry farm surveyed and from randomly sampled government-owned markets in FCT. Source of eggs by state were identified by the marketer at the time of collection. Samples were analysed using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique for the presence of CAP, and prevalence was determined. Of 288 total pooled samples collected, 257 (89.2%) were from the markets and 31 (10.8%) were from poultry farms. A total of 20 (7%) pooled egg samples tested CAP-positive; market eggs originated from 15 (41%) states of the country. Of the market eggs, 16 (6.2%) pooled samples tested positive. Of eggs from poultry farms, four (12.9%) tested positive. Mean CAP concentrations in the positive samples ranged from 0.49 to 1.17 µg kg?1 (parts per billion). CAP use amongst poultry farmers in FCT was 75.5%; awareness of the CAP ban was 26.3%. Though 66% of veterinarians were unaware of a CAP ban, they were more likely to be aware than other poultry farmers (odds ratio (OR) = 1.4). Farm managers who use CAP were more likely to be aware of CAP ban than the farm managers not using CAP (OR = 5.5; p = 0.04). Establishing a drug residue surveillance and control program and enforcement of CAP legislation/regulation is needful to educate and prohibit the widespread CAP use amongst Nigerian poultry farmers. 相似文献
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整体衣柜初见端倪的定制家具市场——从万家丽家居建材广场看长沙整体衣柜市场走势 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文以“整体衣柜”为题,通过对湖南万家丽家居建材广场的专题调查研究,就其品牌概况、计价方式、消费倾向作了分析,并对其市场发展前景作了预测。指出整体衣柜将成为家装市场的一个新的经济增长点。 相似文献
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2013年,中国禽蛋市场形势总体疲软,全年价格平均波幅小于上年;禽蛋进出口贸易额、贸易量同比均下降.国际市场方面,美国鸡蛋批发价格呈震荡上行走势,同比大幅上涨;加拿大市场鸡蛋收购价格企稳,同比明显上涨.展望2014年,中国禽蛋价格将继续呈现高位震荡走势,进出口贸易相对稳定. 相似文献