供应链系统运行整体风险评估指标体系

根据现有文献研究成果,结合实际调研分析,将供应链风险因素整理归纳为系统风险、供应风险、物流风险、信息风险、财务风险、管理风险、需求风险和环境风险.在此基础上,从静态与动态相结合的视角,探索性地提出一套供应链系统运行整体风险评估指标体系,并对评估指标进行了定量或定性辨识.     

舰船推进轴系设计方案的综合评估

探讨了将多目标决策理论应用于舰船推进轴系设计方案综合评估的方法，建立了推进轴系设计方案的多层次评估模型，讨论了基于层次分析法评估以值确定的矢量计算方法，给出了运用模糊隶属函数的底层典型定量指标的确定方法，文中论述的方法对舰船推进轴系设计方案的科学评估决策具有实用价值。     

舰艇研制的技术风险问题分析

分析了舰船研制的技术风险的组成以及与其他风险万分的相互关系，给出了技术风险的指标体系、各指标的量化分析手段及其评价，并提出了相对研制风险的概念和这种分析方法的实验途径。     

空管安全风险评估指标体系的优化设计

近年来,随着国家经济实力的增强,我国在各个领域都有着极大地发展。而在交通上发展也是日新月异。特别是空中的交通发展更是一日千里。但是空中的不确定因素过多,随之带来的就是空中交通管理的安全。本文就从影响空中交通管理的因素就行分析,并从并按照空中交通管理、安全的人员、设备、环境以及管理4个方面进行分类、提炼合并以及综合,而设计了空中交通管理的风险评估指标体系并进行优化。希望这套优化设计后得到的指标体系能够有助于空中交通管理系统进行风险识别和综合预警以及能够查找空中交通管理安全隐患和分析空中交通管理的不安全事件或事故征候的原因,为我国的民航安全风险信息化管理能够提供依据。     

产品缺陷风险评价指标体系和方法研究

风险评价在产品缺陷判定领域的应用处于起步阶段,相关理论模型和评价方法都处于空白.本文根据事故隐患和缺陷定义,将缺陷定为产品的危险状态,属于一种事故隐患.基于缺陷与事故隐患的相似性,借鉴事故隐患风险评价思路,探讨缺陷事故的发生和发展过程,提出产品缺陷风险评价指标体系和方法,为缺陷产品风险评价应用提供理论支撑.     

舰船等级修理模式改革研究与实践

针对新形势下舰船使命任务拓展和装备技术水平提高对舰船等级修理提出的新要求,开展了舰船等级修理模式改革研究,提出了舰船等级修理由"定期修理"为主向"定期修理与视情修理相结合"转变的总体思路,研究了合理确定舰船等级修理类别、修理时机、工程范围和在修时间等关键问题,探讨了与之配套的舰船水下清洗机制、主要设备整机"先换后修"机制、依据状态监测确定装备修理需求机制,并在具有代表性的舰船上开展了相关试点。实践表明,通过变革舰船等级修理模式,可提高舰船理论在航率约5%,效益十分明显。     

检验检测技术科技成果评价指标体系研究

本文从分析检验检测技术科技成果具有的科研成果共性及自身特点入手,按照科学性、系统优化性、目标导向性原则,探索筛选检验检测技术科技成果潜力评价指标,构建了多层次指标分析结构模型;采取主客观综合赋权法及局部状态变权法对评价指标赋权赋值,构建了检验检测技术科技成果评价指标体系。该指标体系对于正确评价检验检测技术科技成果具有一定的技术支撑作用,对于提升检验检测技术创新具有一定的促进作用。     

物流金融服务行业风险评价指标体系的完善设计

随着世界经济的快速发展和企业全球化的经营策略，物流的发展成为全球企业关注的重点。对于物流的相关研究也成为学术界追求的热点，特别是近年来对物流金融的相关研究。对于物流金融的研究涵盖范围较广，为了确保这一新兴行业运营的合理性和决策的正确性，建立一套科学完善的物流金融服务风险评价指标体系是非常必要的。但是，现行的一些指标体系往往较为片面，缺乏一定的完整性和系统性。因此，本文从物流金融服务行业的整体出发，设计出一套符合行业发展规律的较为完整的风险评价指标体系，这一体系的构建对于物流金融服务行业的良好健康发展具有极大地促进作用。     

舰船装备再制造防腐蚀技术研究及应用

再制造防腐蚀是针对在役装备或腐蚀装备所进行的高技术修复与改造。再制造通过使用优于原始制造的先进技术,充分挖掘了腐蚀装备中蕴含着的高附加值,使得再制造装备具有显著的节能环保特色。通过再制造关键技术对舰船装备进行腐蚀控制,将有效提高装备的防腐性能,赋予装备新的寿命,最大限度地保障舰船装备的在航率。文中着重介绍了高速电弧喷涂长效防腐技术、纳米电刷镀防腐耐磨涂层技术、非晶态合金化学镀层防腐技术、纳米固体薄膜减摩防腐技术和纳米防腐涂料及涂装等再制造防腐技术的实际应用。再制造工程在国内外得到了快速发展,推动了"资源节约型、环境友好型"两型社会的建设,已经引起了国家的高度重视和支持,中国已成为国际再制造中心之一,且已将具有中国特色的再制造工程发展到了一个新阶段。     

基于体系的舰船装备军民融合保障能力建设研究

本文针对舰船装备保障能力现状与建设需求,开展了舰船装备军民融合保障能力建设研究,提出了构建"以军为主、军民融合"保障体系的建设目标,明确了能力建设的基本原则,从保障模式、保障机制、配套建设三个方面探讨了加强能力建设的主要内容和基本途径,对于促进舰船装备军民融合保障深度发展,形成军方装备保障核心能力具有积极的借鉴意义。     

舰船装备综合保障工程管理研究

舰船是结构复杂、体系庞大、技术密集的武器装备,其战备完好性和战斗力水平高度依赖于综合保障工程管理。本文对舰船装备综合保障工程管理的内涵与特点做了全面分析,研究了舰船装备综合保障工程管理的主要内容,总结了舰船装备综合保障工程管理方法,对做好舰艇装备综合保障工作具有重要的指导意义。     

Quantified risk assessment in railway system design and operation

Over the last few years quantified risk assessment (QRA), a technique developed in the process industries, has moved into the railway and mass transport arenas. Many quantified risk assessments are now appearing covering varying aspects of railway operation and design. This paper highlights the strengths and weaknesses of the QRA technique, with specific reference to its use in railway system design and operation. Suggestions are made as to how best to manage and present a QRA, and these are illustrated in a section explaining the systematic approach of Cross Rail, a joint London Underground/British Rail/Railtrack £2 billion railway for London. Throughout this paper it is stressed that good QRA comes from management of the process and not of the ‘final figure’. The paper concludes with a listing of recommendations that are considered to be the minimum needed for the future progress of railway QRAs. Consequently the paper will be of special interest to those railway organizations undertaking or managing a QRA for the first time. Special reference is made to the use of QRAs in the presentation of Railway Safety Cases and project design.     

以TRIZ进化理论为基础的产品技术预测支持系统研究

产品技术预测是使企业保持长久竞争优势的有效方法之一,而TRIZ的技术进化理论恰恰是众多产品技术预测理论中最具优势和生命力的。以TRIZ的技术进化理论为基础,运用先进的计算机软件编程技术--基于Windows2000环境, 以Visual Basic 6.0为开发语言,Access作为后台数据库,采用DAO数据库访问技术,构建了基于TRIZ进化理论的产品技术预测支持系统。该系统由8个模块组成,分别是系统维护、待预测产品数据库、产品技术成熟度预测、技术进化路线分析、技术进化知识库、工程报表、编辑和学习帮助模块,通过系统的应用可以实现产品技术成熟度的预测分析,为产品提供可能的技术进化模式或进化路线,将以前手工完成的工作软件化,从而使企业快速、准确地把握产品的技术走向,实现产品和技术的创新。     

Redundancy index of lifelines for mitigation measures against seismic risk

Basic consideration is made on how comprehensively we can evaluate potential seismic risk of lifeline systems and gain an insight into the safety by way of information entropy, which transmits information of various kinds under uncertainties. It is clarified that a redundancy index R_E defined via Shannon's information entropy can be an index to represent redundancy of a system and whose value plays a role to choose the best alternative for designing a system or for finding the best damage mitigation measure against earthquake hazard. The redundancy index R_E takes a value between zero and unity with zero for no redundancy, and unity for maximum redundancy. After the validity of R_E is justified to represent a redundancy measure, a case study is conducted for a Kobe water supply system to evaluate a mitigation measure against earthquake risk where the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake is used as the input hazard.     

西部交通科技项目绩效评价体系研究 及系统设计初探

在明确交通科技项目实施流程的基础上,站在后评价视角分析项目的社会经济效益,制订出一套相对完善的项目评价标准,同时应用Microsoft Visual Basic6．0和Access2003搭建系统框架,充分实现交通科技项目评价的科学性、有效性、合理性,促进决策过程的程序化、科学化。     

基于容差分析的武器装备体系耦合风险仿真研究

武器装备体系的耦合程度是衡量武器装备体系整体作战能力的一个重要指标。文中通过容差分析对武器装备性能的耦合风险进行了研究，通过实例对产生武器装备体系耦合风险的武器装备性能容差进行了模拟仿真，实例证明是有效的。     

A proposal for including technical failure risk in market-based resource reallocation for spacecraft design

This paper summarizes past efforts to use market-based approaches to reallocate resources during the design of space systems, and it proposes an extension to these previous efforts that would include the risk of system failure as a tradable resource. The proposed approach builds from the Cassini Resource Exchange, a method used to allow instrument developers for the Cassini space mission to trade resources among themselves over the life of the project. Market-based design methods offer potential for increased efficiency in engineering design, and small-scale field trials would be a logical step in further testing and improving these approaches.     

"三化"技术指标体系研究

在"三化"内涵分析基础上,本文提出了"三化"技术指标体系构建的原则,建立了"三化"技术指标体系,提出产品研制过程中"三化"目标的确定方法.建议结合产业、产品特点,有效开展"三化"工作.     

Optimal maintenance plan for two-level assembly system and risk study of machine failure

This paper deals with the optimisation of two-levels assembly system planning. This system is composed of a single machine, inventories at levels 1 and 2 for stock keeping components to assembly and final assembled product. It assumed that the machine processes all assembly operations and is subject to random failure. A mathematical model is developed to incorporate a supply planning for two-level assembly systems under stochastic lead times and breakdowns machine. A preventive maintenance plan is carried out to reduce the frequency of the corrective maintenance actions. This work has double goals. The first one is to find the optimal order release dates for the different components at level 2 and the optimal preventive maintenance plan. The second one is to quantify the risk due to machine failures which have an impact on the lead-time of the finished product. To consider the maintenance actions, preventive maintenance actions are perfectly performed to restore the machine to state “as good as new”, minimal repair is considered at failure. The model minimises the total cost, which is the sum of inventory holding cost for components at levels 1 and 2, backlogging and inventory holding cost for the finished products and maintenance costs. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, different meta-heuristics are applied; the genetic algorithm shows the most suited to our analytical model, the optimal release date founded by this algorithm allows finding the optimal preventive maintenance plan. The obtained optimal maintenance planning is used in the risk assessment in order to find the threshold repair period that avoids lost profit.