梯级水库多目标优化调度多属性决策研究

为客观全面评价梯级水库多目标优化调度方案的合理性,需对多目标优化调度非劣方案集进行多属性决策,以便获得最佳均衡方案。文章首先构建了梯级水库多目标优化调度多属性决策指标集,并采用基于权重的投影寻踪模型对非劣方案集进行多属性决策,以此应用于汀江流域棉花滩-青溪梯级水库。实例研究表明该决策模型合理可行,决策结果能够充分发挥流域水资源综合效益,促进流域梯级水资源更合理健康地利用。     

权衡供水与发电目标的水库调度建模及优化

以供水水库为研究对象,考虑了水库的供水、发电目标及两目标的权衡,构建了供水计算、发电计算和多目标计算等三个模型,并分别通过二次规划、混合整数线性规划、非线性规划对三个模型进行优化求解。研究涉及高维性、非线性、多目标在内的水库优化调度问题求解难点。以某两水库调度问题为例,应用优化软件LINGO高质高效求解,为以供水与发电作为主要目标的水库调度问题求解分析提供了示范。     

梯级水库多目标生态优化调度研究

现行水库调度方式侧重于发挥水库社会经济功能,对下游河流生态环境功能发挥没有提到应有高度。文章构建了考虑下游河道生态需水目标梯级水库多目标优化调度模型,并应用于汀江流域棉花滩-青溪梯级水库多目标生态优化调度。研究表明,调度模型合理可行,计算结果可为梯级水库多目标调度方案决策提供数据集。     

灌区水资源利用优化调度研究

实现灌区水资源利用的优化调度,对提高农业生产的灌溉效益,发挥水资源在生产、生活和生态中的资源价值具有重要的意义。结合具体灌区水资源利用实践,从灌区需水量的分析预测、水库模拟调度计算、水库蓄水量的优化调度、灌区规模及各干支渠规划的优化调度及种植结构的优化等方面探讨了灌区水资源利用优化调度的方案。以期实现水资源的科学合理调配,提高灌溉效益。     

基于长期与中长期嵌套的水库优化调度

为解决水库优化调度过程中时间尺度不同而导致的水库综合效益不高的问题,以防洪与兴利为目标,将水库长期优化调度与中长期优化调度进行嵌套,建立水库多目标优化调度嵌套模型。其中,多目标问题通过约束法将防洪目标转换为硬性约束后,再转化为求解发电量最大值的单目标问题。算法方面,综合对比后确定长期优化调度采用动态规划算法求解、中长期优化调度采用遗传算法求解。为验证嵌套模型的优化效果,以澄碧河水库为例,进行水库优化模拟调度。结果表明:在满足防洪目标的前提下,嵌套模型优化调度方案相较于长期优化调度方案和实际调度方案效益均更高,验证了嵌套模型在水库优化调度问题中的优越性。     

单一水库优化调度方案在水库调度中的应用研究

水资源作为一种可再生资源，在生产生活中占据着十分重要的地位，水库的优化调度能够进一步提高水资源的利用率。本文在分析了水库优化调度理论；研究现状以及发展趋势的基础上，介绍了两种水库优化调度的基本法模型：动态规划（DP）数学模型以及逐步优化算法（POA）数学模型。对单一水库的优化调度，提高水库的综合效益，意义将是非常深远的。通过模型计算，可得到水库优化调度的具体方案，根据优化方案，结合水库特点，制定合适的实施策略。研究成果对进一步开发更为完善的单一水库优化调度方案有着重要的推动作用。     

隔河岩和高坝洲梯级水电站水库联合调度方案研究

发电量和保证出力是水库调度的两个对立目标,如何协调发电量和保证出力,是制定水库群联合调度方案的关键。本文对隔河岩和高坝洲梯级水电站水库联合调度,以发电量和保证出力为目标函数,建立了多目标联合优化调度数学模型,并提出了求解多目标优化模型最优解的交互式决策偏好系数法。此方法首先应用约束法将多目标优化模型转换成多个单目标优化模型,采用动态规划法求单目标优化模型的解,得到多目标优化数学模型的不劣解集,在此基础上,提出了一个评价多目标方案的决策偏好系数,并以决策偏好系数为依据,从不劣解集中选择多目标优化数学模型的最优解。应用此方法求出了隔河岩和高坝洲梯级水电站水库联合调度的最佳方案。     

小水电水库优化调度技术（6）：单库优化调度的随机性方法及方案的…

根据马尔柯夫决策规划原理及随机动态规划方法，对单库建立优化调度数学模型，通过模型上机计算，可获得水库优化调度方案。根据优化方案，结合小水电特点，编制方案的实施措施。     

基于模拟-优化模式的供水水库群联合调度规则研究

提出了基于模拟-优化模式的混联供水水库群联合优化调度规则求解框架。首先,通过构建虚拟聚合水库,编制联合调度图,以做出水库群对各用水户的供水方案;其次,通过优化成员水库供水任务分配因子,并结合供水水库群常规调度规则,实现共同供水任务在水库间的优化分配。采用改进粒子群算法 （NSPSO） 对观音阁-葠窝-汤河水库群联合供水调度模型决策变量 （联合调度图调度线位置和成员水库供水任务分配因子） 进行多目标优化,分析联合供水调度过程中目标之间的竞争关系,检验联合调度规则的合理性与有效性以及NSPSO算法的优化效率。     

小水电水库优化调度技术(6)──单库优化调度的随机性方法及方案的实施

根据马尔柯夫决策规划原理及随机动态规划方法，对单库建立优化调度数学模型．通过模型上机计算，可获得水库优化调度方案．根据优化方案，结合小水电特点，编制方案的实施措施．     

随机约束线性规划在水库综合利用中的应用

由于水库入流的不确定性，各用水目标的基本要求（目标放水量）将体现在年内各时期水库放水的随机约束上，配合水库线民生蓄泄水决策规则，将全部随机约束进行确定性等效转换，得到线性规划模型，经多次解析，就可得到水主加容量一定情况下的最优运行规则，针对大型水资源工程综合利用的多目标要求，研究建立了随机约束线性规划模型，以求解水库最优运行规划的方法，并以西南地区某大型综合利用水库为例，对模型进行求解，该方法随机     

Optimizing Reservoir Operation Policy Using Chance Constraint Nonlinear Programming for Koga Irrigation Dam,Ethiopia

One of typical problems in water resources system modeling is derivation of optimal operating policy for reservoir to ensure water is used more efficiently. This paper introduces optimization analysis to determine monthly reservoir operating policies for five scenarios of predetermined cropping patterns for Koga irrigation scheme, Ethiopia. The objective function of the model was set to minimize the sum of squared deviation (SSD) from the desired targeted supply. Reservoir operation under different water availability and thresholds of irrigation demands has been analyzed by running a chance constraint nonlinear programming model based on uncertain inflow data. The model was optimized using Microsoft Excel Solver. The lowest SSD and vulnerability, and the highest volumetric reliability were gained at irrigation deficit thresholds of 20 % under scenario I, 30 % under scenario II, III and V, and at 40 % under scenario IV when compensation release is permitted for downstream environment. These thresholds of deficits could be reduced by 10 % for all scenarios if compensation release is not permitted. In conclusion the reservoir water is not sufficient enough to meet 100 % irrigation demand for design command areas of 7,000 ha. The developed model could be used for real time reservoir operation decision making for similar reservoir irrigation systems. In this specific case study system, attempt should be made to evaluate the technical performance of the scheme and introduce a regulated deficit irrigation application.     

水库调度决策单调性与动态规划算法改进

在灌溉、供水等调度中,水库经济效益随供水量增加常呈现"边际效用递减"的特征。本文在"边际效用递减"(即水库调度目标函数为凹函数)的假设下分析得到两阶段水库调度中本时段泄水量、下一时段余留水量与本时段初水库蓄水量间的单调增加关系,将这一单调关系由两阶段推广到多阶段水库调度并进一步提出动态规划算法改进:搜索域缩减算法和邻域搜索算法。在供水调度研究案例中,搜索域缩减算法和邻域搜索算法能将动态规划计算时间分别缩减50.4%和92.1%。进一步分析发电调度中水库水头、下泄水量对总发电量的耦合影响,讨论搜索域缩减算法和邻域搜索算法对发电调度的适用性,并将这两种算法在陡岭子水库发电调度中进行应用;计算结果表明搜索域缩减算法、邻域搜索算法能为发电调度提供有效的参考方案。     

Deriving Reservoir Refill Operating Rules by Using the Proposed DPNS Model

The dynamic programming neural-network simplex (DPNS) model, which is aimed at making some improvements to the dynamic programming neural-network (DPN) model, is proposed and used to derive refill operating rules in reservoir planning and management. The DPNS model consists of three stages. First, the training data set (reservoir optimal sequences of releases) is searched by using the dynamic programming (DP) model to solve the deterministic refill operation problem. Second, with the training data set obtained, the artificial neural network (ANN) model representing the operating rules is trained through back-propagation (BP) algorithm. These two stages construct the standard DPN model. The third stage of DPNS is proposed to refine the operating rules through simulation-based optimization. By choosing maximum the hydropower generation as objective function, a nonlinear programming technique, Simplex method, is used to refine the final output of the DPN model. Both the DPNS and DPN models are used to derive operating rules for the real time refill operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) for the year of 2007. It is shown that the DPNS model can improve not only the probability of refill but also the mean hydropower generation when compare with that of the DPN model. It's recommended that the objective function of ANN approach for deriving refill operating rules should maximize the yield or minimize the loss, which can be computed from reservoir simulation during the refill period, rather than to fit the optimal data set as well as possible. And the derivation of optimal or near-optimal operating rules can be carried out effectively and efficiently using the proposed DPNS model.     

水库群长期优化调度研究

在进行水库群长期优化运行的研究中，讨论了一种适合于寻求水资源系统优化运行决策规则调度模型。该模型包括双状态动态规划（ＢＳＤＰ）和混合回归的疏系数模型。该调度模型充分反映了水库群最优运行的规律，且大大节省了计算时间的内存量。模拟运行结果表明，该模型是可行的。     

A Model for Optimal Allocation of Water to Competing Demands

The present study develops a simple interactive integrated water allocation model (IWAM), which can assist the planners and decision makers in optimal allocation of limited water from a storage reservoir to different user sectors, considering socio-economic, environmental and technical aspects. IWAM comprises three modules—a reservoir operation module (ROM), an economic analysis module (EAM) and a water allocation module (WAM). The model can optimize the water allocation with any of two different objectives or two objectives together. The two individual objectives included in the model are the maximization of satisfaction and the maximization of net economic benefit by the demand sectors. Weighting technique (WT) or simultaneous compromise constraint (SICCON) technique is used to convert the multi-objective decision-making problem into a single objective function. The single objective functions are optimized using linear programming. The model applicability is demonstrated for various cases with a hypothetical example.     

Integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) Model for Optimal Release Policy

Complexicity in reservoir operation poses serious challenges to water resources planners and managers. These challenges of water reservoir operation are illustrated using a simulation to aid the development of an optimal operation policy for dam and reservoir. To achieve this, a Comprehensive Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Artificial Neural Network (SDP-ANN) model were developed and tested at Sg. Langat Reservoir in Malaysia. The nonlinearity of the natural physical processes was a major problem in determining the simulation of the reservoir parameters (elevation, surface-area, storage). To overcome water shortages resulting from uncertainty, the SDP-ANN model was used to evaluate the input variable and the performance outcome of the Model were compared with the Stochastic Dynamic Programming integrated with auto-regression (SDP-AR) model. The objective function of the models was set to minimize the sum of squared deviation from the desired targeted supply. Comparison result on the performance between SDP-AR model policy with SDP-ANN model found that the SDP-ANN model is a reliable and resilience model with a lesser supply deficit. The study concludes that the SDP-ANN model performs better than the SDP-AR model in deriving an optimal operating policy for the reservoir.     

Multi-Objective Operating Rules for Danjiangkou Reservoir Under Climate Change

The natural variations of climatic system, as well as the potential influence of human activity on global warming, have changed the hydrologic cycle and threatened current water resources management. And the conflicts between different objectives in reservoir operation may become more and more challenging because of the impact of climate change. This study aims at deriving multi-objective operating rules to adapt to climate change and alleviate the conflicts. By combining the reservoir operation function and operating rule curves, an adaptive multi-objective operation model was proposed and developed. The optimal operating rules derived both by dynamic programming and NSGA-II method were compared and discussed. The projection pursuit method was used to select the best operating rules. The results demonstrate that the reservoir operating rules obtained by NSGA-II can increase the power generation and water supply yield and reliability, and the rules focusing on water supply can significantly increase the reservoir annual water supply yield (by 18.7 %). It is shown that the proposed model would be effective in reservoir operation under climate change.     

Optimal reservoir operation using Nash bargaining solution and evolutionary algorithms

Optimizing reservoir operation is critical to ongoing sustainable water resources management. However, different stakeholders in reservoir management often have different interests and resource competition may provoke conflicts. Resource competition warrants the use of bargaining solution approaches to develop an optimal operational scheme. In this study, the Nash bargaining solution method was used to formulate an objective function for water allocation in a reservoir. Additionally, the genetic and ant colony optimization algorithms were used to achieve optimal solutions of the objective function. The Mahabad Dam in West Azerbaijan, Iran, was used as a case study site due to its complex water allocation requirements for multiple stakeholders, including agricultural, domestic, industrial, and environmental sectors. The relative weights of different sectors in the objective function were determined using a discrete kernel based on the priorities stipulated by the government (the Lake Urmia National Restoration Program). According to the policies for the agricultural sector, water allocation optimization for different sectors was carried out using three scenarios: (1) the current situation, (2) optimization of the cultivation pattern, and (3) changes to the irrigation system. The results showed that the objective function and the Nash bargaining solution method led to a water utility for all stakeholders of 98%. Furthermore, the two optimization algorithms were used to achieve the global optimal solution of the objective function, and reduced the failure of the domestic sector by 10% while meeting the required objective in water-limited periods. As the conflicts among stakeholders may become more common with a changing climate and an increase in water demand, these results have implications for reservoir operation and associated policies.     

水电站水库长期优化调度模型及调度图

为绘制高效可靠的水库运行调度图,以平衡保证出力保证率与发电量矛盾的惩罚系数为优化变量、以保证出力设计保证率满足条件下发电量最大为目标函数,综合集成以黄金分割法为时段决策优选法的随机动态规划核心模型,以及评估调度方案优劣时历法长系列模拟计算模块,利用遗传算法的并行计算能力,结合电站调度方案制定与有效性检验,构建水电站水库长期优化调度模型。应用结果表明:所建模型具有不受年调节和多年调节库容机械划分约束、快速获得满足发电保证率所要求的优化调度图的优秀特性;较之常规调度方法,可增发电量2.0%以上,保证率更高,决策信息更丰富。