A new NAMA framework for dispersed energy end-use sectors

This paper presents a new approach for a nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMA) framework that can unlock the huge potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in dispersed energy end-use sectors in developing countries; specifically, the building sector and the industrial sector. These two sectors make up the largest portions of energy consumption in developing countries. However, due to multiple barriers and lack of effective polices, energy efficiency in dispersed energy end-use sectors has not been effectively put into practice. The new NAMA framework described in this paper is designed to fulfill the demand for public policies and public sector investment in developing countries and thereby boost private sector investment through project based market mechanisms, such as CDM. The new NAMA framework is designed as a need-based mechanism which effectively considers the conditions of each developing country. The building sector is used as an example to demonstrate how NAMA measures can be registered and implemented. The described new NAMA framework has the ability to interface efficiently with Kyoto Protocol mechanisms and to facilitate a systematic uptake for GHG emission reduction investment projects. This is an essential step to achieve the global climate change mitigation target and support sustainable development in developing countries.     

Opportunities for low carbon sustainability in large commercial buildings in China

China's building sector consumes one quarter of total energy consumption in the country and plays an important role in long-term ability of the country to achieve sustainable development. This paper discusses a comprehensive approach to achieving low carbon sustainability in large commercial buildings in China incorporating both energy and carbon-reduction strategies. The approach concentrates primarily on three complementary aspects: (a) the introduction of an effective energy management system; (b) the incorporation of relevant advanced energy saving technologies and measures and (c) the promotion of awareness among occupants to make changes in their behaviour towards a more environmental-friendly behaviour. However, reference is also made to the role that renewable energy and offsetting may have in the effective management and environmental performance of buildings.Nine examples of large commercial buildings in Beijing and Shanghai were studied and the average electricity consumption of around 153 kWh/m² per annum is about 5 times higher than average electricity use in residential buildings. At the same time the associated green house gas (GHG) emissions are around 158 kg/m² per annum.     

CO2 emission from China's energy sector and strategy for its control

This paper identifies the main features of CO₂ emission from fossil energy combustion in China. Then it estimates China's future energy requirements and projects its CO₂ emission from 2010 to 2020 based on the scenario analysis approach. China's rate of carbon productivity growth is estimated to be 5.4% in the period 2005–2020, while the CO₂ intensity of GDP will reduce by about 50% but CO₂ emission in 2020 will still be about 40% higher than prevailing in 2005 because of rapid growth of GDP. This estimation is based on the assumption that China will implement a sustainable development strategy in consideration of climate change issues. The main objectives of the strategy are to implement an “energy conservation first” strategy, to develop renewable energy and advanced nuclear technology actively, to readjust the country's economic structure, and to formulate and legislate laws and regulations, and to build institutions for energy conservation and development of renewable energy. It concludes that international measures to mitigate CO₂ emission will limit world fossil fuel consumption. China is not placed to replicate the modernization model adopted by developed countries and has to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emission control while still in the process of industrialization and modernization. China has to evolve a low carbon industrialization model. This is the key to the success of sustainable development initiatives in China.     

Impacts of China's emissions trading schemes on deployment of power generation with carbon capture and storage

The establishment of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) in China creates the potential for a “least cost” solution for achieving the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions required for China to meet its Paris Agreement pledges. China has pledged to reduce CO₂ intensity by 60–65% in 2030 relative to 2005 and to stop the increase in absolute CO₂ emissions around 2030. In this series of studies, we enhance the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to include the latest assessments of the costs of power generation technologies in China to evaluate the impacts of different potential ETS pathways on deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. This paper reports the results from baseline scenarios where power generation prices are assumed to be homogeneous across the country for a given mode of generation. We find that there are different pathways where CCS might play an important role in reducing the emission intensity in China's electricity sector, especially for low carbon intensity targets consistent with the ultimate goals of the Paris Agreement. Uncertainty about the exact technology mix suggests that decision makers should be wary of picking winning technologies, and should instead seek to provide incentives for emission reductions. While it will be challenging to meet the CO₂ intensity target of 550 g/kWh for the electric power sector by 2020, multiple pathways exist for achieving lower targets over a longer timeframe. Our initial analysis shows that carbon prices of 35–40$/tCO₂ make CCS technologies on coal-based generation cost-competitive against other modes of generation and that carbon prices higher than 100$/tCO₂ favor a major expansion of CCS. The next step is to confirm these initial results with more detailed modeling that takes into account granularity across China's energy sector at the provincial level.     

The promotion of sustainable development in China through the optimization of a tax/subsidy plan among HFC and power generation CDM projects

China is expected to reach record growth by 2020 in the energy sector by at least doubling its electricity generation capacity. In order to protect the environment and foster economic development, China will greatly benefit from transfers of state-of-the-art power generation technologies through international agreements such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). However, a buyer-driven carbon market and a highly competitive environment due to more cost-effective projects attribute to China's need to achieve a balance between sustainability and profitability for CDM projects implemented in China.     

Analysis of China's energy utilization for 2007

China is the world's second-largest energy producer and consumer, so that it is very necessary to analyze China's energy situation for saving energy consumption and reducing GHG emission. Energy flow chart is taken as a useful tool for sorting out and displaying energy statistics data. Energy statistics data is the premise and foundation for analyzing energy situation. However, there exit many differences between China and foreign energy balance. Based on the international criterion of energy balance and some advices given by related experts, the author properly adjusts China's energy balance. And the purpose of this paper is to draft China's energy flow chart for 2007, which is used to study the characteristics of energy production and consumption in China. We find that: (1) coal is the main energy in China, which accounted for 73.2% of total energy supply in 2007; (2) thermal power accounted for 83.2% of the total electricity supply, and 78.43% thermal power was based on coal; (3) in 2007, the secondary industrial sector consumed about 69.93% of energy; (4) China's energy utilization efficiency was about 33.23% in 2007.     

China's natural gas: Resources,production and its impacts

In order to achieve energy consumption targets, and subsequently reduce carbon emissions, China is working on energy strategies and policies aimed at actively increasing the consumption of natural gas—the lowest carbon energy of the fossil fuels, and to enhance the proportion of gas in total primary energy consumption. To do this, it is a necessary prerequisite that China must have access to adequate gas resources and production to meet demand. This paper shows that the availability of domestic gas resources are overestimated by China's authorities due to differences in classification and definitions of gas resources/reserves between China and those accepted internationally. Based on official gas resource figures, China's gas production remains low with respect to the projected demand, and will only be 164.6 bcm in 2020, far lower than the 375 bcm of forecast demand. The gap between gas production and demand will reach 210.4 bcm by 2020. Existing plans for the importation of gas and the development of unconventional gas will not close this gap in the next 10 years, and this situation will therefore present a severe challenge to China's gas security, achievement of targets in improving energy consumption structure and reducing carbon emissions.     

Progress in renewable energy under clean development mechanism in India

Kyoto protocol was the first agreement regarding control of climate change problems. Clean development mechanism (CDM) was included in the Kyoto protocol to promote sustainable development in developing countries (non-Annex I countries) and assist developed countries (Annex I countries) to achieve their emission reduction targets. CDM allows trading of emissions reductions and helps to increase sustainable development in a developing country and reduce global emissions in developed country. Renewable energy sources are the appropriate alternatives for sustainable development through CDM. India is one of the emerging nations in renewable energy sector. Government of India is trying to enhance energy generation through renewable and carbon trading. This paper shows the current status and progress of renewable energy through CDM in India.     

Changes in carbon intensity in China's industrial sector: Decomposition and attribution analysis

The industrial sector accounts for 70% of the total energy-related CO₂ emissions in China. To gain a better understanding of the changes in carbon intensity in China's industrial sector, this study first utilized logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis to disentangle the carbon intensity into three influencing factors, including the emission coefficient effect, the energy intensity effect, and the structure effect. Then, the analysis was furthered to explore the contributions of individual industrial sub-sectors to each factor by using an extension of the decomposition method proposed in Choi and Ang (2012). The results indicate that from 1996 to 2012, the energy intensity effect was the dominant factor in reducing carbon intensity, of which chemicals, iron and steel, metal and machinery, and cement and ceramics were the most representative sub-sectors. The structure effect did not show a strong impact on carbon intensity. The emission coefficient effect gradually increased the carbon intensity, mainly due to the expansion of electricity consumption, particularly in the metal and machinery and chemicals sub-sectors. The findings suggest that differentiated policies and measures should be considered for various industrial sub-sectors to maximize the energy efficiency potential. Moreover, readjusting the industrial structure and promoting clean and renewable energy is also urgently required to further reduce carbon intensity in China's industrial sector.     

Overview of the use of artificial neural networks for energy‐related applications in the building sector

The incessant growing of the world's energy consumption and associated greenhouse gases emissions have created tremendous problems to be solved by today's and future generations. As the building sector is one of the biggest energy consumers, reducing its energy consumption is now mandatory. Being able to conceive and built efficient buildings, to effectively manage and operate them, and to rapidly renovate the existing building stock is a challenging task. Neural networks models open new possibilities to address this problem. This paper offers a comprehensive review of the studies that use neural networks for energy‐related applications in the building sector focusing on their application and on the technical characteristics of the network (ie, learning algorithm, number of layers, number of neurons, inputs and output variables, and performance criteria). On the basis of this review, limitations concerning the use of neural networks in the building sector along with existing research gaps and future research directions are identified.     

Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The ‘Best Case’ scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the ‘Best Case’ scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated.     

A state-of-the-art review of the sustainability and energy efficiency of buildings in Saudi Arabia

Sustainable buildings have an important role in achieving sustainable development by improving energy utilization and environmental performance. Buildings are considered as the biggest single contributor to world energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In Saudi Arabia, the significance of the building sector can be described on the basis of per capita electricity consumption, per capita carbon dioxide emissions, and the increasing number of buildings because of economic and population growth. Therefore, the country should consider establishing energy-efficient buildings to promote sustainable development. Efforts in developing energy-efficient technologies should increase for the national energy policy. This article comprehensively describes the current challenges and opportunities of energy consumption and various energy conservation options that are viable for the Saudi building sector. Current policy efforts for improving energy efficiency in Saudi buildings have been analyzed to enhance the sustainable development in the country. The study reveals that the energy conservation policy of the country has fairly improved in the past decades. However, the country has to focus on this area and perform urgent measures to adopt energy-efficient technologies in the building sector.     

Model projections and policy reviews for energy saving in China's service sector

Energy efficiency of buildings in the service sector is becoming increasingly important in China due to the structural shift of the economy from industry to services. This paper employs a bottom-up cohort model to simulate current energy saving policies and to make projections for future energy use and CO₂ emissions for the period 2000–2030 in the Chinese service sector. The analysis shows that energy demand in the service sector will approximately triple in 2030, far beyond the target of quadrupling GDP while only doubling energy use. However, it is feasible to achieve the target of emission reduction by 40% in 2020 even under the poor state of compliance rate of building standard. This paper also highlights four crucial aspects of designing optimal energy saving policies for China's service sector based on the model results.     

Review of Taiwan's climate policy after Copenhagen

The Copenhagen Accord in 2009 initiated new opportunities for international cooperation in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The purpose of this study was to review Taiwan's current climate policy and, in response to the Copenhagen Accord, to deliberate this policy in the light of new strategic thinking. The study proposes a two-stage approach with a dividing line in 2020. In the first stage, from now until 2020, strategy should be based on cost constraints, with a suggested reduction cost below $60/t-CO₂, and implementation of domestic GHG emissions trading scheme and reduction strategies. In the second stage, from 2020 and beyond, action by Taiwan should, accord with international cooperative actions to link its domestic emissions trading scheme with the international carbon market.     

Decarbonising new city precincts: A case study in Perth,Western Australia

The performance of our cities in terms of how they deal with energy across a wide range of indicators is the key factor in reducing carbon emissions. The focus of this paper is a precinct in Perth which is about to be redeveloped. The proposed plan is modelled looking specifically at Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from: materials used in the construction, not only of the buildings but also the infrastructure (i.e. roads and paving in the public realm); electricity and gas consumption through the use of everyday residential and commercial appliances and equipment; the energy required for the pumping and treatment of water supplied to the development site including water required for the irrigation of public areas as well as for individual consumption; and private motor vehicles owned by residents on the development site. A baseline model representing the proposed plan built to existing codes and standards is used to determine the impact of a range of low-carbon interventions proposed for the development, including reducing parking and adding good quality public transport. Significant GHG emissions reductions of greater than 50% are possible at quite minimal additional cost due to the alternative systems of development that are found to be effective at a precinct scale. In order to achieve such precinct-scale innovations there are policy and regulatory barriers for electricity, thermal energy and water utility providers to overcome. There needs to be a reasonable business case for developers, energy service companies (ESCO's) and potential customers to enable investment in low carbon, precinct scale options. Some examples of these are also discussed.     

Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector.     

Price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand during urbanization: An empirical analysis based on the household-level survey data in China

Urbanization, one of the most obvious characteristics of economic growth in China, has an apparent “lock-in effect” on residential energy consumption pattern. It is expected that residential sector would become a major force that drives China's energy consumption after urbanization process. We estimate price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand using data from China's Residential Energy Consumption Survey (CRECS) that covers households at different income levels and from different regional and social groups. Empirical results from the Almost Ideal Demand System model are in accordance with the basic expectations: the demands for electricity, natural gas and transport fuels are inelastic in the residential sector due to the unreasonable pricing mechanism. We further investigate the sensitivities of different income groups to prices of the three types of energy. Policy simulations indicate that rationalizing energy pricing mechanism is an important guarantee for energy sustainable development during urbanization. Finally, we put forward suggestions on energy pricing reform in the residential sector based on characteristics of China's undergoing urbanization process and the current energy consumption situations.     

Energy caps: Alternative climate policy instruments for China?

Decoupling fossil energy demand from economic growth is crucial for China's sustainable development, especially for addressing severe local air pollution and global climate change. An absolute cap on coal or fossil fuel consumption has been proposed as a means to support the country's energy and climate policy objectives. We evaluate potential energy cap designs that differ in terms of target fuel, point of control, and national versus regional allowance trading using a global numerical general equilibrium model that separately represents 30 provinces in China. First, we simulate a coal cap and find that relative to a cap on all fossil fuels, it is significantly more costly and results in high localized welfare losses. Second, we compare fossil energy cap designs and find that a national cap on downstream fossil energy use with allowance trading across provinces is the most cost effective. Third, we find that a national fossil energy cap with trading is nearly as cost effective as a national CO₂ emissions trading system that penalizes energy use based on carbon content. As a fossil energy cap builds on existing institutions in China, it offers a viable intermediate step toward a full-fledged CO₂ emissions trading system.     

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.     

低碳发展时代的世界与中国能源格局

哥本哈根会议认定了"2℃"和"在2050年前全球排放量减到1990年的一半",到2050年,碳减排要求世界人均能耗不高于2.5t标煤/a。能源碳强度ω是一个反映碳排放与能源结构关系的新指标,利用它与一次能源消费中生成并排放二氧化碳的各种形式能源所占比率γ的关联式ω=2.4γ进行推算:按照450情景方案,二氧化碳排放峰值307×108t出现在2020年,而能耗峰值在2030年左右;按照丹麦方案,二氧化碳排放峰值320×108t出现在2025年,能耗峰值也大约在2030年,将达到273×108t标煤/a,人均3.3t标煤/a。碳排放峰值年越推迟,达到2050年远期目标的难度越大。按照丹麦方案,2030~2050年的20年间,需平均每年减排10×108t二氧化碳,同时与450情景方案相比,大气中二氧化碳总量将增加400×108t以上。根据中国政府宣布的2010~2020年的减排目标推算,2020年能耗为41×108t标煤,二氧化碳排放约74×108t,中国只要能做到能耗强度每5年降低20%,就能够实现此目标。中国应在2020年之前快速发展非化石能源、加速产业转型、大力发展天然气、大幅提高能效,这样就完全能够与世界减排同行。