Neural Network Model to Support International Market Entry Decisions

Bidding for international construction projects is a critical decision for companies that aim to position themselves in the global construction market. Determination of attractive projects and markets where the competitive advantage of a company is high requires extensive environmental scanning, forecasting, and learning from the experience of competitors in international markets. In this paper, a neuronet model has been developed as a decision support tool that can classify international projects with respect to attractiveness and competitiveness based on the experiences of Turkish contractors in overseas markets. The model can be used to guide decision makers on which type of data should be collected during international business development and further help them to prepare priority lists during strategic planning. Information derived from the model demonstrates that the most important factors that increase attractiveness of an international project are availability of funds, market volume, economic prosperity, contract type, and country risk rating. Similarly, level of competition, attitude of host government, existence of strict quality requirements, country risk rating, and cultural/religious similarities are the most important factors that affect competitiveness of Turkish contractors in international markets.     

Estimation of Minimum Working Capital for Construction Projects in Malaysia

Forecasting cash requirements is essential for all contractors during the tendering stage since cash flow at the beginning of the project is a major cause of construction companies’ failure. Unfortunately, estimating minimum working capital (MWC) is not the mainstream practice of the majority of contractors in Malaysia, who find that the present models for estimating MWC are cumbersome and seldom give an accurate estimate. Therefore estimates of MWC made during the tendering stage need to be simplified so they can be prepared quickly with minimum input. It is important for the developer or owner to select a qualified contractor with competent financial backing. This paper establishes the relationship among the factors that contribute to MWC requirements and presents a simple model that could be used as a guide to estimate MWC for housing construction projects in Malaysia. The estimation is based on percentages of variables of contract value based on the historical data that influence MWC; the MWC obtained is then expressed in terms of percentage of contract value.     

Risks in Chinese Construction Market—Contractors’ Perspective

With China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Chinese construction market will be increasingly open and finally become part of the international market. Because of different social and economic systems, as well as different historical and cultural backgrounds, contractors are likely to encounter different risks in different markets. Based on questionnaires and case studies, this paper adopts an importance evaluation index and makes an importance evaluation of various risks encountered by Chinese contractors when contracting for projects in Chinese markets. This paper also makes comparisons between and analyses of the research findings and related available investigation results. The Cox–Stuart trend increase test method is applied in the current research, the results indicating that the variance corresponding to the importance index value tends to increase as the risk event importance decreases. This tendency shows that those investigated tend towards unanimity in terms of higher importance risk events. This paper also examines the reliability of the questionnaires by means of Cronbach’s Alpha Coefficient. The research shows that the main risk currently encountered by Chinese contractors in domestic markets includes owner’s irregular behavior and government departments’ interference in construction markets. China’s accession to the WTO has provided greater opportunities for international contractors to enter the Chinese construction market. Therefore the research results described in this paper can provide valuable data enabling international contractors to gain a better understanding of the potential risks in the environment of the Chinese construction market.     

Ontology for Relating Risk and Vulnerability to Cost Overrun in International Projects

Risk management is about identifying risks, assessing their impacts, and developing mitigation strategies to ensure project success. The difference between the expected and actual project outcomes is usually attributed to risk events and how they are managed throughout the project. Although there are several reference frameworks that explain how risks can be managed in construction projects, a major bottleneck is the lack of a common vocabulary for risk-related concepts. Poor definition of risk and patterns of risk propagation in a project decrease the reliability of risk models that are constructed to simulate project outcomes under different risk occurrence scenarios. This study aims to extend previous studies in risk management by presenting an ontology for relating risk-related concepts to cost overrun. The major idea is that cost overrun depends on causal relations between various risk sources (namely, risk paths) and sources of vulnerability that interfere with these paths. Ontology is used to develop a database system that represents risk event histories of international construction projects and to construct a model for estimation of cost overrun. It will form the basis of a multiagent system that can be used to simulate the negotiation process among project participants about sharing of costs considering the risk allocation clauses in the contract, sources of vulnerability, and causal relations between risk events and their impacts. The ontology is constructed by interaction with Turkish contractors working in international markets and extensive literature review on risk-related concepts. The validation test results provide evidence that the ontology is fairly effective to help Turkish contractors to assess cost overrun by considering sources of vulnerability and risk in international construction projects.     

Critical Success Factors for Transfer-Operate-Transfer Urban Water Supply Projects in China

Over the years, build-operate-transfer (BOT) has continuously attracted research interests. Many studies on BOT have been carried out. Variations of BOT such as build-own-operate-transfer and build-own-operate have also been reported in some relevant publications. However, few investigations thus far have been conducted for transfer-operate-transfer (TOT). Therefore, there is a knowledge gap in this particular field. TOT is a new model that is suitable for existing infrastructure and public utility projects formerly funded by the governments and currently operated by state-owned enterprises. It refers to the transfer of a running public project to a foreign business or domestic private entity. Based on four case studies carried out in the Chinese water supply industry, this paper examines why there is an increasing need for TOT projects and identifies the distinctive features of TOT practice in China. This is followed by an introduction of a framework of critical success factors (CSFs) for TOT projects. The most important factors include project profitability, asset quality, fair risk allocation, competitive tendering, internal coordination within government, employment of professional advisors, corporate governance, and government supervision. The identification of CSFs provides a useful guidance to project parties planning to participate in TOT practice.     

Contractor’s Opportunistic Bidding Behavior and Equilibrium Price Level in the Construction Market

The competitive bidding system has been to blame for abnormally low bids, which are considered as one of the main causes of poor project quality. Previous studies have regarded the pricing of bidders as an optimum decision based on contractor’s cost and market competition level. However, the sell to produce characteristic of construction projects may induce contractors to offer a low bid and then make up the amount initially sacrificed from beyond-contractual reward (BCR) gained through cutting corners and claims. System dynamics was adopted in this study to develop a contractor’s pricing model with consideration of the dimensions of cost, market competition, and BCR. The model was then examined by statistical analysis of data collected from 44 highway projects in Taiwan. It was found that the equilibrium market price is significantly associated with BCR, which is assumed to be determined by the strictness of the owner’s construction management, including both soundness of contract and tightness in construction supervision. Research results suggest that contractors divide the market into different segments according to the owner’s strictness of construction management and the equilibrium price level of each market segment varies. The price level for projects with a strict owner is remarkably higher than for those with relatively less strict owners. Improvement in the construction management system of projects is crucial to lower the possibility that contractors gain BCR and do opportunistic bidding, and to further enhance project quality.     

Empirical Study of the Risks and Difficulties in Implementing Guaranteed Maximum Price and Target Cost Contracts in Construction

Over the past few decades, both the guaranteed maximum price (GMP) and target cost contracting (TCC) arrangements have been regarded as alternative integrated procurement strategies for clients to mitigate risks, minimize claims, integrate the diverse interests of a complex construction project, and offer incentives to provide value-added services. However, the adoption of GMP/TCC contracts may also generate significant risks and difficulties that merit considerable attention. This paper aims to provide a concise review of the potential pitfalls of the GMP/TCC scheme in general and identifies the key risk factors and potential difficulties associated with GMP/TCC in comparison with other procurement strategies in construction in particular via an empirical survey of clients, contractors, and consultants in Hong Kong. The survey data gleaned from 45 valid replies were analyzed using the mean score ranking technique, Kendall’s concordance test, and Spearman’s rank correlation test. The survey results indicated that “involvement of inexperienced or claim-conscious contractors in a project procured by a GMP/TCC contract” was considered to be the most significant risk factor; while “design development must keep pace with main contractor’s program for tendering the domestic subcontractors’ works packages” as the major difficulty in implementing GMP/TCC projects. The research findings derived from this study are particularly essential in assisting the contracting parties to mitigate the detriments brought about by potential risks or difficulties when embarking on GMP/TCC contracts. It has also generated valuable insights into developing effective recommendations for alleviating the barriers to GMP/TCC success for future construction projects.     

Portfolio Cash Assessment Using Fuzzy Systems Theory

Gaps between cash outflows and inflows throughout the life cycle of construction projects can create extended periods of low cash availability for a construction contractor, jeopardizing the financial stability of the business. A number of researchers have therefore attempted to model cash availability at a project level. However, at a firm level, financial stability is more thoroughly examined as a function of the cash flows related to multiple projects. This paper proposes a methodology on the basis of fuzzy systems theory to forecast cash requirements of a portfolio of projects for a construction firm, taking into account the effect of changing portfolio composition on portfolio cash-flow risk. Portfolio cash-flow risk is calculated from a variance matrix created by using covariance among cash flows of pairs of projects. Expert opinions of a group of highway construction contractors regarding project selection, project risk assessment and cash control were collected to create a fuzzy proportional derivative (PD) model that predicts portfolio risk for a construction firm. The model was assessed by the same group of contractors for overall logic (if/then rule base), appropriateness of cash-flow calculations (moving weights of cost categories), and practicality through application on a hypothetical test case. The paper concludes that a fuzzy proportional derivative model can be an effective tool to establish trends in cash-flow availability and risk across a portfolio of construction projects.     

Relationship between Organizational Sizes and Contractors’ Risk Pricing Behaviors for Weather Risk under Different Project Values and Durations

A problem that always annoys building employers and their consultants when drafting building contracts is whether it is more cost efficient to retain certain risks with themselves or to transfer the same to contractors, and it has long been a difficulty to accurately estimate the cost for transferring risks to the other contract party. It is a very common market practice to remove contractors’ entitlement to extension of time due to inclement weather, and in view of the significant impacts that inclement weather posed on construction progress, it would be helpful to assess the associated costs for such risk allocation exercises in order to ensure that it is a cost-effective transaction. The costs for these potential weather-caused delays are priced by contractors in their returned tenders. This risk-pricing behavior is affected by the contractor’s risk perception and risk attitude. However, merely working out contractors’ risk perception and risk attitude patterns is inadequate, as they may vary in accordance with different organizational sizes and project backgrounds. Therefore, further studies should be carried out on the implications of project information, such as project value and contract period, on different-sized contractors’ risk behaviors. In this research, a questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate the weather-risk-pricing behavioral patterns of various-sized contractors under different given project scenarios. The survey revealed that the impacts of project value and contract period (and, thus, the intensity of work and scale of exposure to weather risk) were significant on contractors’ risk behaviors, and these impacts varied in accordance with different organizational sizes. The medium-sized contractors’ pricing behaviors were rather constant under different project values and contract periods, while both small and large contractors behaved differently when the intensity of work and scale of risk exposure varied. Despite the fact that contractors of various sizes behaved differently in some given scenarios, the number of days of delaying cost allowed by them in returned tenders were generally less than the actual number of days of inclement weather affecting work.     

Economic Value of Combined Best Practice Use

This paper measures the value of best practices based on data taken from the Construction Industry Institute Benchmarking and Metrics database. A three-step process provides the basis for measuring the potential benefits of increased best practice use. First, a practice use index is derived to model the way in which best practices are utilized on actual projects. The index combines data from eight best practices to create a single measure of practice utilization. Second, a project performance index, combining cost and schedule metrics, is derived as an indicator of overall project performance. Third, the practice use index is correlated with cost, schedule, and overall project performance metrics. Both owners and contractors benefit from increased practice use. Potential cost savings for owners range from $1.7 to $3.4 million, depending on industry group and project size. Potential cost savings for contractors are higher, averaging $7.2 million for the typical $88 million heavy industrial project. Benefits from schedule reductions are most apparent for owners. On large building projects, schedule reductions for owners average 27 weeks. Finally, improvements in overall project performance on the order of 30% are observed for both owners and contractors.     

Hybrid Prequalification-Based, Innovative Contracting Model Using AHP

Design-build, cost-plus-time, and warranty are three innovative contracting methods used by the Federal Highway Administration (FHwA). Because of the challenges inherent in the nature of these approaches, contractors need to be capable and experienced to successfully deliver projects. It is then necessary to prequalify contractors to reduce the inherent risk of a project. Therefore, the objective of the research project described in this paper is to provide a methodology that will help public owners prequalify and select contractors within the context of the three delivery methods mentioned above. As a result, a hybrid prequalification and selection model to screen contractors who want to submit bids on public projects using any of the three innovative contracting methods above was developed. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to make prequalification decisions when multiple criteria are used. In addition, three case studies were developed to evaluate the application of AHP to the prequalification criteria in the three innovative contracting methods. AHP was utilized as an effective prequalification decision-making tool that eliminates subjectivity and produces decisions built on consistent judgments.     

Exploring the Bidding Situation for Economically Most Advantageous Tender Projects Using a Bidding Game

Most open tendering procedures in the real world are highly complex, uncertain, and costly. With an increasing emphasis on the quality and value of procurement, economically most advantageous tender (EMAT) has been widely adopted as an alternative contract-awarding criteria, which has changed competitive strategies in the construction industry. A conceptual model of competitive bidding in EMAT is first established to reflect the credibility of the bidding situation. A bidding game for EMAT projects is performed by 24 participants to partially test the conceptual model. The result reveals that the game has the potential to reveal important factors in the bidding situation, simulate competitive bidding behaviors, and explore competitive advantages in the EMAT bidding process. The learning effect from the game should be useful for contractors who are preparing to deliver optimal tenders in EMAT projects.     

Benchmarking Productivity Indicators for Electrical/Mechanical Projects

Labor-intensive industries such as the electrical and mechanical trades are considered high risk due to the high percentage of labor costs. Because of this high risk, it is important for contractors in these industries to closely track labor costs on projects and compare these costs to industry benchmarks. In this paper, benchmark indicators for these industries are established on the basis of actual project data. These benchmarks include the relationship between the percent complete or percent time and cumulative work hours or cost, project size and duration, project size and average man power, project size and peak man power, and average versus peak man power. These relationships were developed using regression analysis. Man power loading charts and the related S-curves were developed from actual project data. The man power loading charts and the related S-curves are useful for resource planning and for tracking progress on a construction project. They can be used to show the cause-and-effect relationship between projects impacted by outside factors and normal labor productivity.     

浅议实行工程量清单招投标

实行工程量清单计价是我国深化建设工程管理改革的一项重大举措,是建设领域里的一件大事,是规范建设市场秩序的有效措施,是招标投标竞争报价定价和评审合理低标价中标的要求。工程量清单招投标是国际通行的招投标方式,我国加入WTO后,建设市场将进一步对外开放,更多的国外企业以及投资项目进入我国建筑市场,我国建筑企业也必然要利用加入WTO的机会走向世界,开拓国际市场,这就需要我们建立与国际惯例接轨的工程量清单招投标模式。     

Causes of Bad Profit in Overseas Construction Projects

International construction projects do not necessarily produce a high level of profit, as opposed to what is generally expected of high-risk international attempts. Overseas construction projects tend to have various risk factors that can diminish project profitability. This paper provides a comprehensive hierarchical framework to investigate the cause-and-effect relationships of various profit-influencing factors for international construction projects. After long-term profitability trends are analyzed based on a total of 3,487 international projects performed by Korean global contractors during the last 4 decades, case surveys of 126 overseas projects are conducted to draw the criticalities of each factor and to develop a hierarchical framework. An in-depth comparative case study of 20 additional international projects is also performed to verify the applicability of the hierarchical framework. Finally, we present significant distinctions between successful and failed projects from the comparative case study.     

Risk Management in International Construction Joint Ventures

This paper identifies the risk factors associated with international construction joint ventures (JVs) from and “integrated” perspective. The risk factors are grouped into three main groups: (1) Internal; (2) Project-specific; and (3) External. It examines the most effective mitigating measures adopted by construction professionals in managing these risks for their construction projects in East Asia. Based on an international survey of contractors, it was found that the most critical risk factors exist in the financial aspects of JVs, government policies, economic conditions, and project relationship. When entering a foreign construction market in the form of a JV, a foreign construction company could reduce its risks if it would carefully select its local partner, ensure that a good JV agreement is drafted, choose the right staff and subcontractors, establish good project relationships, and secure a fair construction contract with its client.     

Discriminant Analysis for Predicting Ranges of Cost Variance in International Construction Projects

Unanticipated market conditions as well as project-related risks can easily lead to cost overruns in international construction projects. For a contractor to be financially successful in international projects, a careful examination of the project is a prerequisite to understanding the cost variance characteristics. Based on the reasonably accurate characterization of the cost performance, the markup or contingency amount is determined to ensure both a decent level of profit and a good chance of winning the contract. This paper presents a classification model to categorize international construction projects, particularly faced by Korean contractors, into five cost-variation classes: extreme cost overrun, moderate cost overrun, neutral, moderate cost saving, and extreme cost saving. The model is able to characterize an international project for its cost performance prediction in comparison to the contractor’s initial cost estimate. A linear discriminant analysis is utilized to develop the predictive classification model with the support of the bootstrap method. Tests show that the proposed model is able to help cost estimators determine a proper level of cost contingency before bidding on an international project.     

Model for Predicting the Performance of Project Managers at the Construction Phase of Mass House Building Projects

The need to match project managers’ (PMs) performance measures onto projects of both unique and similar characteristics has long since been acknowledged by researchers. The need for these measures to reflect the various phases of the project life cycle has also been contended in the recent past. Here, a competency-based multidimensional conceptual model is proposed for mass house building projects (MHBPs). The model reflects both performance behaviors and outcome in predicting the PMs’ performances at the conceptual, planning, design, tender, construction, and operational phases of the project life cycle. Adopting a positivist approach, data elicited for the construction phase is analyzed using multiple regression techniques (stepwise selection). Out of a broad range of behavioral metrics identified as the independent variables, the findings suggest the best predictors of PMs’ performances in MHBPs at the construction phase are: job knowledge in site layout techniques for repetitive construction works; dedication in helping works contractors achieve works schedule; job knowledge of appropriate technology transfer for repetitive construction works; effective time management practices on house units; ability to provide effective solution to conflicts, simultaneously maintaining good relationships; ease with which works contractors are able to approach the PM and volunteering to help works contractors solve personal problems. ANOVA, multicollineriality, Durbin–Watson, and residual analysis, confirm the goodness of fit. Validation of the model also reflected reasonably high predictive accuracy suggesting the findings could be generalized. These results indicate that the model can be a reliable tool for predicting the performance of PMs in MHBPs.     

Single versus Multiple Prime Contracting

Policies regarding public building construction affect the interests of taxpayers, construction authorities, general contractors, specialty contractors, and other stakeholders. At the state level, the debate as to the optimal form such policies should take has become an ongoing struggle among competing interests. This study presents a systematic analysis of the main issues regarding single versus multiple prime contracting with the purpose of providing objective data to illuminate the debate. A statistical analysis of project bids and final costs from a national sample of state construction projects reveals that public construction projects organized with multiple prime contracts tend to have 5% less direct costs than projects using a single prime contractor. Moreover, approximately 80% of these savings are attributable to lower bid costs for multiple prime projects. The results of this study are in agreement with theoretical bidding models and efficient risk allocation models. Theoretical bidding models suggest that, in the absence of disruptions, multiple prime projects should have lower direct costs than single prime jobs. Efficient cost allocation models suggest that when specialty contractors do not bear the risks associated with the single prime contracting method (e.g., bid shopping and payment delays) they are willing to lower their bids, and forego the premium they would normally charge in response to such risks, as seems to be the case in multiple prime jobs.