Analysis and Dynamics of Fractional Order Mathematical Model of COVID-19 in Nigeria Using Atangana-Baleanu Operator

We propose a mathematical model of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to investigate the transmission and control mechanism of the disease in the community of Nigeria. Using stability theory of differential equations, the qualitative behavior of model is studied. The pandemic indicator represented by basic reproductive number R₀ is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Local as well as global asymptotic stability conditions for the disease-free and pandemic equilibrium are obtained which determines the conditions to stabilize the exponential spread of the disease. Further, we examined this model by using Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative operator and existence criteria of solution for the operator is established. We consider the data of reported infection cases from April 1, 2020, till April 30, 2020, and parameterized the model. We have used one of the reliable and efficient method known as iterative Laplace transform to obtain numerical simulations. The impacts of various biological parameters on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is examined. These results are based on different values of the fractional parameter and serve as a control parameter to identify the significant strategies for the control of the disease. In the end, the obtained results are demonstrated graphically to justify our theoretical findings.     

Numerical Analysis of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCov) Pandemic Model with Advection

Recently, the world is facing the terror of the novel corona-virus, termed as COVID-19. Various health institutes and researchers are continuously striving to control this pandemic. In this article, the SEIAR (susceptible, exposed, infected, symptomatically infected, asymptomatically infected and recovered) infection model of COVID-19 with a constant rate of advection is studied for the disease propagation. A simple model of the disease is extended to an advection model by accommodating the advection process and some appropriate parameters in the system. The continuous model is transposed into a discrete numerical model by discretizing the domains, finitely. To analyze the disease dynamics, a structure preserving non-standard finite difference scheme is designed. Two steady states of the continuous system are described i.e., virus free steady state and virus existing steady state. Graphical results show that both the steady states of the numerical design coincide with the fixed points of the continuous SEIAR model. Positivity of the state variables is ensured by applying the M-matrix theory. A result for the positivity property is established. For the proposed numerical design, two different types of the stability are investigated. Nonlinear stability and linear stability for the projected scheme is examined by applying some standard results. Von Neuman stability test is applied to ensure linear stability. The reproductive number is described and its pivotal role in stability analysis is also discussed. Consistency and convergence of the numerical model is also studied. Numerical graphs are presented via computer simulations to prove the worth and efficiency of the quarantine factor is explored graphically, which is helpful in controlling the disease dynamics. In the end, the conclusion of the study is also rendered.     

Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning for Effective Public Health Management

COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected nearly every country in the world. At present, sustainable development in the area of public health is considered vital to securing a promising and prosperous future for humans. However, widespread diseases, such as COVID-19, create numerous challenges to this goal, and some of those challenges are not yet defined. In this study, a Shallow Single-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (SSLPNN) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model were used for the classification and prediction of confirmed COVID-19 cases in five geographically distributed regions of Asia with diverse settings and environmental conditions: namely, China, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Significant environmental and non-environmental features were taken as the input dataset, and confirmed COVID-19 cases were taken as the output dataset. A correlation analysis was done to identify patterns in the cases related to fluctuations in the associated variables. The results of this study established that the population and air quality index of a region had a statistically significant influence on the cases. However, age and the human development index had a negative influence on the cases. The proposed SSLPNN-based classification model performed well when predicting the classes of confirmed cases. During training, the binary classification model was highly accurate, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.91. Likewise, the results of the regression analysis using the GPR technique with Matern 5/2 were highly accurate (RMSE = 0.95239) when predicting the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in an area. However, dynamic management has occupied a core place in studies on the sustainable development of public health but dynamic management depends on proactive strategies based on statistically verified approaches, like Artificial Intelligence (AI). In this study, an SSLPNN model has been trained to fit public health associated data into an appropriate class, allowing GPR to predict the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in an area based on the given values of selected parameters. Therefore, this tool can help authorities in different ecological settings effectively manage COVID-19.     

On the Detection of COVID-19 from Chest X-Ray Images Using CNN-Based Transfer Learning

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an extremely infectious disease and possibly causes acute respiratory distress or in severe cases may lead to death. There has already been some research in dealing with coronavirus using machine learning algorithms, but few have presented a truly comprehensive view. In this research, we show how convolutional neural network (CNN) can be useful to detect COVID-19 using chest X-ray images. We leverage the CNN-based pre-trained models as feature extractors to substantiate transfer learning and add our own classifier in detecting COVID-19. In this regard, we evaluate performance of five different pre-trained models with fine-tuning the weights from some of the top layers. We also develop an ensemble model where the predictions from all chosen pre-trained models are combined to generate a single output. The models are evaluated through 5-fold cross validation using two publicly available data repositories containing healthy and infected (both COVID-19 and other pneumonia) chest X-ray images. We also leverage two different visualization techniques to observe how efficiently the models extract important features related to the detection of COVID- 19 patients. The models show high degree of accuracy, precision, and sensitivity. We believe that the models will aid medical professionals with improved and faster patient screening and pave a way to further COVID-19 research.     

An Intelligent Fine-Tuned Forecasting Technique for Covid-19 Prediction Using Neuralprophet Model

COVID-19, being the virus of fear and anxiety, is one of the most recent and emergent of various respiratory disorders. It is similar to the MERS-COV and SARS-COV, the viruses that affected a large population of different countries in the year 2012 and 2002, respectively. Various standard models have been used for COVID-19 epidemic prediction but they suffered from low accuracy due to lesser data availability and a high level of uncertainty. The proposed approach used a machine learning-based time-series Facebook NeuralProphet model for prediction of the number of death as well as confirmed cases and compared it with Poisson Distribution, and Random Forest Model. The analysis upon dataset has been performed considering the time duration from January 1^st 2020 to16^th July 2021. The model has been developed to obtain the forecast values till September 2021. This study aimed to determine the pandemic prediction of COVID-19 in the second wave of coronavirus in India using the latest Time-Series model to observe and predict the coronavirus pandemic situation across the country. In India, the cases are rapidly increasing day-by-day since mid of Feb 2021. The prediction of death rate using the proposed model has a good ability to forecast the COVID-19 dataset essentially in the second wave. To empower the prediction for future validation, the proposed model works effectively.     

An Intelligence Computational Approach for the Fractional 4D Chaotic Financial Model

The main purpose of the study is to present a numerical approach to investigate the numerical performances of the fractional 4-D chaotic financial system using a stochastic procedure. The stochastic procedures mainly depend on the combination of the artificial neural network (ANNs) along with the Levenberg-Marquardt Backpropagation (LMB) i.e., ANNs-LMB technique. The fractional-order term is defined in the Caputo sense and three cases are solved using the proposed technique for different values of the fractional order α. The values of the fractional order derivatives to solve the fractional 4-D chaotic financial system are used between 0 and 1. The data proportion is applied as 73%, 15%, and 12% for training, testing, and certification to solve the chaotic fractional system. The acquired results are verified through the comparison of the reference solution, which indicates the proposed technique is efficient and robust. The 4-D chaotic model is numerically solved by using the ANNs-LMB technique to reduce the mean square error (MSE). To authenticate the exactness, and consistency of the technique, the obtained performances are plotted in the figures of correlation measures, error histograms, and regressions. From these figures, it can be witnessed that the provided technique is effective for solving such models to give some new insight into the physical behavior of the model.     

Numerical Simulations of One-Directional Fractional PharmacokineticsModel

In this paper, we present a three-compartment of pharmacokinetics model with irreversible rate constants. The compartment consists of arterial blood, tissues and venous blood. Fick’s principle and the law of mass action were used to develop the model based on the diffusion process. The model is modified into a fractional pharmacokinetics model with the sense of Caputo derivative. The existence and uniqueness of the model are investigated and the positivity of the model is established. The behaviour of the model is investigated by implementing numerical algorithms for the numerical solution of the system of fractional differential equations. MATLAB software is used to plot the graphs for illustrating the variation of drug concentration concerning time. Therefore, the numerical simulations of the model are presented for different values of α which verified the theoretical analysis. Besides, we also observed the pattern of the simulations at the three-compartment of the model by using different values of initial conditions.     

Finite element formulation of viscoelastic sandwich beams using fractional derivative operators

This paper presents a finite element formulation for transient dynamic analysis of sandwich beams with embedded viscoelastic material using fractional derivative constitutive equations. The sandwich configuration is composed of a viscoelastic core (based on Timoshenko theory) sandwiched between elastic faces (based on Euler–Bernoulli assumptions). The viscoelastic model used to describe the behavior of the core is a four-parameter fractional derivative model. Concerning the parameter identification, a strategy to estimate the fractional order of the time derivative and the relaxation time is outlined. Curve-fitting aspects are focused, showing a good agreement with experimental data. In order to implement the viscoelastic model into the finite element formulation, the Grünwald definition of the fractional operator is employed. To solve the equation of motion, a direct time integration method based on the implicit Newmark scheme is used. One of the particularities of the proposed algorithm lies in the storage of displacement history only, reducing considerably the numerical efforts related to the non-locality of fractional operators. After validations, numerical applications are presented in order to analyze truncation effects (fading memory phenomena) and solution convergence aspects.     

Classification COVID-19 Based on Enhancement X-Ray Images and Low Complexity Model

COVID-19 has been considered one of the recent epidemics that occurred at the last of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 that world widespread. This spread of COVID-19 requires a fast technique for diagnosis to make the appropriate decision for the treatment. X-ray images are one of the most classifiable images that are used widely in diagnosing patients’ data depending on radiographs due to their structures and tissues that could be classified. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is the most accurate classification technique used to diagnose COVID-19 because of the ability to use a different number of convolutional layers and its high classification accuracy. Classification using CNNs techniques requires a large number of images to learn and obtain satisfactory results. In this paper, we used SqueezNet with a modified output layer to classify X-ray images into three groups: COVID-19, normal, and pneumonia. In this study, we propose a deep learning method with enhance the features of X-ray images collected from Kaggle, Figshare to distinguish between COVID-19, Normal, and Pneumonia infection. In this regard, several techniques were used on the selected image samples which are Unsharp filter, Histogram equal, and Complement image to produce another view of the dataset. The Squeeze Net CNN model has been tested in two scenarios using the 13,437 X-ray images that include 4479 for each type (COVID-19, Normal and Pneumonia). In the first scenario, the model has been tested without any enhancement on the datasets. It achieved an accuracy of 91%. But, in the second scenario, the model was tested using the same previous images after being improved by several techniques and the performance was high at approximately 95%. The conclusion of this study is the used model gives higher accuracy results for enhanced images compared with the accuracy results for the original images. A comparison of the outcomes demonstrated the effectiveness of our DL method for classifying COVID-19 based on enhanced X-ray images.     

Attention-Based and Time Series Models for Short-Term Forecasting of COVID-19 Spread

The growing number of COVID-19 cases puts pressure on healthcare services and public institutions worldwide. The pandemic has brought much uncertainty to the global economy and the situation in general. Forecasting methods and modeling techniques are important tools for governments to manage critical situations caused by pandemics, which have negative impact on public health. The main purpose of this study is to obtain short-term forecasts of disease epidemiology that could be useful for policymakers and public institutions to make necessary short-term decisions. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed attention-based method combining certain data mining algorithms and the classical ARIMA model for short-term forecasts, data on the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Lithuania is used, the forecasts of epidemic dynamics were examined, and the results were presented in the study. Nevertheless, the approach presented might be applied to any country and other pandemic situations. The COVID-19 outbreak started at different times in different countries, hence some countries have a longer history of the disease with more historical data than others. The paper proposes a novel approach to data registration and machine learning-based analysis using data from attention-based countries for forecast validation to predict trends of the spread of COVID-19 and assess risks.     

Fuzzy Based Decision Making Approach for Evaluating the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic in Cities of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 stating that it is a worldwide danger and requires imminent preventive strategies to minimise the loss of lives. COVID-19 has now affected millions across 211 countries in the world and the numbers continue to rise. The information discharged by the WHO till June 15, 2020 reports 8,063,990 cases of COVID-19. As the world thinks about the lethal malady for which there is yet no immunization or a predefined course of drug, the nations are relentlessly working at the most ideal preventive systems to contain the infection. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is additionally combating with the COVID-19 danger as the cases announced till June 15, 2020 reached the count of 132,048 with 1,011 deaths. According to the report released by the KSA on June 14, 2020, more than 4,000 cases of COVID-19 pandemic had been registered in the country. Tending to the impending requirement for successful preventive instruments to stem the fatalities caused by the disease, our examination expects to assess the severity of COVID-19 pandemic in cities of KSA. In addition, computational model for evaluating the severity of COVID-19 with the perspective of social influence factor is necessary for controlling the disease. Furthermore, a quantitative evaluation of severity associated with specific regions and cities of KSA would be a more effective reference for the healthcare sector in Saudi Arabia. Further, this paper has taken the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique for quantitatively assessing the severity of COVID-19 pandemic in cities of KSA. The discoveries and the proposed structure would be a practical, expeditious and exceptionally precise evaluation system for assessing the severity of the pandemic in the cities of KSA. Hence these urban zones clearly emerge as the COVID-19 hotspots. The cities require suggestive measures of health organizations that must be introduced on a war footing basis to counter the pandemic. The analysis tabulated in our study will assist in mapping the rules and building a systematic structure that is immediate need in the cities with high severity levels due to the pandemic.     

The impact of a 360° virtual tour on the reduction of psychological stress caused by COVID-19

The continuous spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is causing people to feel anxiety and stress. This study constructs a four-layer research model to examine how a 360° virtual tour can reduce people's psychological stress through two types of presence (the sense of presence and telepresence) and affective-motivational states (enjoyment and involvement) in this extraordinary period of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to test the moderating effect of involvement, partial least squares (PLS) analysis is employed to analyse valid data collected from 235 individuals. The results of this study indicate that telepresence has a higher impact in generating affective-motivational states than the sense of presence. Among the factors, enjoyment shows the highest effect on satisfaction with the 360° virtual tour experience and stress reduction; involvement moderates the effect of telepresence on satisfaction with the 360° virtual tour experience. This study also contributes to virtual reality research by distinguishing the concepts of ‘sense of presence’ and ‘telepresence’ as well as demonstrating the mechanisms whereby virtual reality technology influences people's psychological well-being. Timely recommendations are provided for people in order to reduce psychological stress during and after COVID-19 pandemic.     

Efficient Deep CNN Model for COVID-19 Classification

Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection was initially acknowledged as a global pandemic in Wuhan in China. World Health Organization (WHO) stated that the COVID-19 is an epidemic that causes a 3.4% death rate. Chest X-Ray (CXR) and Computerized Tomography (CT) screening of infected persons are essential in diagnosis applications. There are numerous ways to identify positive COVID-19 cases. One of the fundamental ways is radiology imaging through CXR, or CT images. The comparison of CT and CXR scans revealed that CT scans are more effective in the diagnosis process due to their high quality. Hence, automated classification techniques are required to facilitate the diagnosis process. Deep Learning (DL) is an effective tool that can be utilized for detection and classification this type of medical images. The deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) can learn and extract essential features from different medical image datasets. In this paper, a CNN architecture for automated COVID-19 detection from CXR and CT images is offered. Three activation functions as well as three optimizers are tested and compared for this task. The proposed architecture is built from scratch and the COVID-19 image datasets are directly fed to train it. The performance is tested and investigated on the CT and CXR datasets. Three activation functions: Tanh, Sigmoid, and ReLU are compared using a constant learning rate and different batch sizes. Different optimizers are studied with different batch sizes and a constant learning rate. Finally, a comparison between different combinations of activation functions and optimizers is presented, and the optimal configuration is determined. Hence, the main objective is to improve the detection accuracy of COVID-19 from CXR and CT images using DL by employing CNNs to classify medical COVID-19 images in an early stage. The proposed model achieves a classification accuracy of 91.67% on CXR image dataset, and a classification accuracy of 100% on CT dataset with training times of 58 min and 46 min on CXR and CT datasets, respectively. The best results are obtained using the ReLU activation function combined with the SGDM optimizer at a learning rate of 10⁻⁵ and a minibatch size of 16.     

Machine Learning Approach for COVID-19 Detection on Twitter

Social networking services (SNSs) provide massive data that can be a very influential source of information during pandemic outbreaks. This study shows that social media analysis can be used as a crisis detector (e.g., understanding the sentiment of social media users regarding various pandemic outbreaks). The novel Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19), commonly known as coronavirus, has affected everyone worldwide in 2020. Streaming Twitter data have revealed the status of the COVID-19 outbreak in the most affected regions. This study focuses on identifying COVID-19 patients using tweets without requiring medical records to find the COVID-19 pandemic in Twitter messages (tweets). For this purpose, we propose herein an intelligent model using traditional machine learning-based approaches, such as support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), naïve Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), and decision tree (DT) with the help of the term frequency inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) to detect the COVID-19 pandemic in Twitter messages. The proposed intelligent traditional machine learning-based model classifies Twitter messages into four categories, namely, confirmed deaths, recovered, and suspected. For the experimental analysis, the tweet data on the COVID-19 pandemic are analyzed to evaluate the results of traditional machine learning approaches. A benchmark dataset for COVID-19 on Twitter messages is developed and can be used for future research studies. The experiments show that the results of the proposed approach are promising in detecting the COVID-19 pandemic in Twitter messages with overall accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score between 70% and 80% and the confusion matrix for machine learning approaches (i.e., SVM, NB, LR, RF, and DT) with the TF-IDF feature extraction technique.     

Analysis and Dynamics of Illicit Drug Use Described by Fractional Derivative with Mittag-Leffler Kernel

Illicit drug use is a significant problem that causes great material and moral losses and threatens the future of the society. For this reason, illicit drug use and related crimes are the most significant criminal cases examined by scientists. This paper aims at modeling the illegal drug use using the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative with Mittag-Leffler kernel. Also, in this work, the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the fractional-order Illicit drug use model are discussed via Picard-Lindelöf theorem which provides successive approximations using a convergent sequence. Then the stability analysis for both disease-free and endemic equilibrium states is conducted. A numerical scheme based on the known Adams-Bashforth method is designed in fractional form to approximate the novel Atangana-Baleanu fractional operator of order 0 < α ≤ 1. Finally, numerical simulation results based on different values of fractional order, which also serve as control parameter, are presented to justify the theoretical findings.     

Intelligent Approach for Clustering Mutations’ Nature of COVID-19 Genome

In December 2019, a group of people in Wuhan city of Hubei province of China were found to be affected by an infection called dark etiology pneumonia. The outbreak of this pneumonia infection was declared a deadly disease by the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention on January 9, 2020, named Novel Coronavirus 2019 (nCoV-2019). This nCoV-2019 is now known as COVID-19. There is a big list of infections of this coronavirus which is present in the form of a big family. This virus can cause several diseases that usually develop with a serious problem. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 2019-nCoV has been placed as the modern generation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses, so COVID-19 can repeatedly change its internal genome structure to extend its existence. Understanding and accurately predicting the mutational properties of the genome structure of COVID-19 can form a good leadership role in preventing and fighting against coronavirus. In this research paper, an analytical approach has been presented which is based on the k-means cluster technique of machine learning to find the clusters over the mutational properties of the COVID-19 viruses’ complete genome. This method would be able to act as a promising tool to monitor and track pathogenic infections in their stable and local genetics/hereditary varieties. This paper identifies five main clusters of mutations with as best in most cases in the coronavirus that could help scientists and researchers develop disease control vaccines for the transformation of coronaviruses.     

Pandemic Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Using Gaussian Doubling Times

COVID-19 has become a pandemic, with cases all over the world, with widespread disruption in some countries, such as Italy, US, India, South Korea, and Japan. Early and reliable detection of COVID-19 is mandatory to control the spread of infection. Moreover, prediction of COVID-19 spread in near future is also crucial to better plan for the disease control. For this purpose, we proposed a robust framework for the analysis, prediction, and detection of COVID-19. We make reliable estimates on key pandemic parameters and make predictions on the point of inflection and possible washout time for various countries around the world. The estimates, analysis and predictions are based on the data gathered from Johns Hopkins Center during the time span of April 21 to June 27, 2020. We use the normal distribution for simple and quick predictions of the coronavirus pandemic model and estimate the parameters of Gaussian curves using the least square parameter curve fitting for several countries in different continents. The predictions rely on the possible outcomes of Gaussian time evolution with the central limit theorem of statistics the predictions to be well justified. The parameters of Gaussian distribution, i.e., maximum time and width, are determined through a statistical χ2-fit for the purpose of doubling times after April 21, 2020. For COVID-19 detection, we proposed a novel method based on the Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) and CNN in multi-class classification scenario i.e., Normal, COVID-19, viral pneumonia etc. Experimental results show the effectiveness of our framework for reliable prediction and detection of COVID-19.     

Developing a Recognition System for Classifying COVID-19 Using a Convolutional Neural Network Algorithm

The COVID-19 pandemic poses an additional serious public health threat due to little or no pre-existing human immunity, and developing a system to identify COVID-19 in its early stages will save millions of lives. This study applied support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (K-NN) and deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithms to classify and detect COVID-19 using chest X-ray radiographs. To test the proposed system, chest X-ray radiographs and CT images were collected from different standard databases, which contained 95 normal images, 140 COVID-19 images and 10 SARS images. Two scenarios were considered to develop a system for predicting COVID-19. In the first scenario, the Gaussian filter was applied to remove noise from the chest X-ray radiograph images, and then the adaptive region growing technique was used to segment the region of interest from the chest X-ray radiographs. After segmentation, a hybrid feature extraction composed of 2D-DWT and gray level co-occurrence matrix was utilized to extract the features significant for detecting COVID-19. These features were processed using SVM and K-NN. In the second scenario, a CNN transfer model (ResNet 50) was used to detect COVID-19. The system was examined and evaluated through multiclass statistical analysis, and the empirical results of the analysis found significant values of 97.14%, 99.34%, 99.26%, 99.26% and 99.40% for accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, recall and AUC, respectively. Thus, the CNN model showed significant success; it achieved optimal accuracy, effectiveness and robustness for detecting COVID-19.     

Telehealth and COVID-19: Using technology to accelerate the curve on access and quality healthcare for citizens in India

The current COVID-19 pandemic has reinstated the importance of telehealth as a business model for accelerating the accessibility of healthcare and improving the quality of healthcare for citizens of a country. Telehealth service has a tremendous potential in a developing country like India where the healthcare facilities in India are heavily concentrated in urban cities while their majority (67%) of the population resides in rural areas. At the same time, a high teledensity of almost 90% supports telehealth overall reach. However, the growth of telehealth in India till now has been sluggish but the corona virus (COVID-19) crisis has redefined the telehealth ecosystem by reducing the risk of infection through person-to-person contact. In this study, we explore the perception of healthcare users towards telehealth services and analyze the key enablers for the telehealth services in the current scenario. We collected data from 1170 participants through personal interview. The results of the study shows a considerable segment of the population is having high healthcare need, have aspirations for accessing better healthcare for themselves and their family members and use ICT to a significant extent. At the same time, they have positive attitude towards telehealth and socio-demographic factors like age, geographical location, educational qualification, family size affects the attitude towards telehealth services. The results of the study shows there is a significant market for telehealth services in India to be explored by the technology firms, hospitals and other healthcare stakeholders and going forward it has an enormous capability to transform the complete healthcare ecosystem, especially in developing countries like India post the COVID-19 crisis.