Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

A significant increase in the number of coronavirus cases can easily be noticed in most of the countries around the world. Inspite of the consistent preventive initiatives being taken to contain the spread of this virus, the unabated increase in the cases is both alarming and intriguing. The role of mathematical models in predicting and estimating the spread of the virus, and identifying various preventive factors dependencies has been found important and effective in most of the previous pandemics like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) 2003. In this research work, authors have proposed the Susceptible-Infectected-Removed (SIR) model variation in order to forecast the pattern of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread for the upcoming eight weeks in perspective of Saudi Arabia. The study has been performed by using SIR model with a proposed simplification using average progression for further estimation of β and γ values for better curve fittings ratios. The predictive results of this study clearly show that under the current public health interventions, there will be an increase in the COVID-19 cases in Saudi Arabia in the next four weeks. Hence, a set of strong health primitives and precautionary measures are recommended in order to avoid and prevent the further spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia.     

Inclusive recovery planning for incremental systemic change: A methodology,early outcomes,and limitations from the Falkland Islands' Covid-19 recovery planning experience

Crises do not affect populations equally but expose and exacerbate long-standing vulnerabilities and inequalities. Recovery language such as ‘build back better’, or ‘bounce forward’ has been criticised for neglecting underlying inequalities. This paper reports on the process and early outcomes of an inclusive Community Recovery Planning process for the Falkland Islands, in response to Covid-19. The Falkland Islands is home to a complex community, with close ties and short power distances (due to its small size and remoteness), with differences institutionalised in citizenship statuses and entitlements, and shaped by geopolitical tensions. We aimed to use the ‘pandemic as a portal’, seeking out previously ‘less heard’ voices, to make visible previously hidden impacts, and initiate incremental systemic change to tackle them. Community Impact Assessments evidenced specific areas of vulnerability (e.g., housing and income insecurity) and inequalities, largely shaped by differing citizenship status. In tandem with other government currents, the Community Recovery Planning process has contributed to progressive policy changes in Equalities legislation and Income Support. We offer this paper as a demonstration of our methodology for inclusive recovery planning that could be adapted elsewhere. We argue that the inclusion of previously unheard voices contributed to incremental systemic change to reduce inequalities.