Combined hardware and software aspects of reliability

This paper presents the similarities and differences between hardware, software and system reliability. Relative contributions to system failures are shown for software and hardware and failure and recovery propensities are also discussed. Reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) concepts have been broadly developed for software reliability than hardware reliability. Extending these software concepts to hardware and system reliability helps in examining the reliability of complex systems. The paper concludes with assurance techniques for defending against faults. Most of the techniques discussed originate in software reliability but apply to all aspects of a system. Also, the effects of redundancy on overall system availability are shown.     

多失效模式典型结构系统可靠性稳健设计方法研究

应用随机摄动技术与二阶矩方法,结合概率网络估算法（Probability Network Evaluation Technique）,讨论了多失效模式下结构系统的可靠性和可靠性灵敏度问题,并进一步对结构系统的可靠性稳健设计进行了分析。获得了不同失效模式间的相关统计特性,应用概率网络估算法确定了系统的代表失效模式,得出了...     

Bayesian networks inference algorithm to implement Dempster Shafer theory in reliability analysis

This paper deals with the use of Bayesian networks to compute system reliability. The reliability analysis problem is described and the usual methods for quantitative reliability analysis are presented within a case study. Some drawbacks that justify the use of Bayesian networks are identified. The basic concepts of the Bayesian networks application to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the reliability for the case study is presented. Dempster Shafer theory to treat epistemic uncertainty in reliability analysis is then discussed and its basic concepts that can be applied thanks to the Bayesian network inference algorithm are introduced. Finally, it is shown, with a numerical example, how Bayesian networks’ inference algorithms compute complex system reliability and what the Dempster Shafer theory can provide to reliability analysis.     

Recent advances in system reliability optimization driven by importance measures

System reliability optimization problems have been widely discussed to maximize system reliability with resource constraints. Birnbaum importance is a well-known method for evaluating the effect of component reliability on system reliability. Many importance measures (IMs) are extended for binary, multistate, and continuous systems from different aspects based on the Birnbaum importance. Recently, these IMs have been applied in allocating limited resources to the component to maximize system performance. Therefore, the significance of Birnbaum importance is illustrated from the perspective of probability principle and gradient geometrical sense. Furthermore, the equations of various extended IMs are provided subsequently. The rules for simple optimization problems are summarized to enhance system reliability by using ranking or heuristic methods based on IMs. The importance-based optimization algorithms for complex or large-scale systems are generalized to obtain remarkable solutions by using IM-based local search or simplification methods. Furthermore, a general framework driven by IM is developed to solve optimization problems. Finally, some challenges in system reliability optimization that need to be solved in the future are presented.     

System-level load–strength interference based reliability modeling of k-out-of-n system

The issue of information loss in the process of system reliability modeling through conventional load–strength interference analysis is discussed first, and the reason why it is impossible to construct dependent system reliability model simply by means of component reliability index is demonstrated. Then, an approach to modeling the reliability of dependent system with common cause failure (CCF) is presented. The approach is based on system-level load–strength interference analysis and a concept of ‘conditional failure probability of component’ as well. With the opinion that load randomness is the direct cause of failure dependence, a discrete type system reliability model is developed via the conditional component failure probability concept. At last, the model's capabilities to estimate system reliability with CCF effect and to predict high multiplicity failure probability based on low multiplicity failure event data are proved.     

Tracing the unreliability and recognizing the major unreliability contribution of network components

Weak part analysis of a system is a key element in a system reliability quantification process. It enables the weakest areas of a system to be recognized and assists in directing remedial measures for improving the system reliability. This paper presents a novel approach to identifying the weak parts using the unreliability tracing (UT) technique and introduces the proportional sharing principle (PSP). The model for tracing the unreliability of a complex network is presented based on reliability evaluation methods using minimal cut sets (MCSs) and the PSP. The system UT sharing factors (UTSFs) are derived to easily identify the major unreliability contributions (MUCs) in a system. The method is illustrated using three cases and the UT, UTSF and the reliability impact analysis of different components are discussed. The results show that the developed technique can be applied to complex networks for UT tracing and recognizing the MUC.     

军用航空发动机可靠性和寿命管理

以西方军用航空发动机可靠性和寿命管理为蓝本，阐述了可靠性和寿命管理的基本要素，并结合我国航空发动机可靠性和寿命管理的现状，讨论了我国航空发动机可靠性和寿命管理工作存在的差距和误区，指出了我国航空发动机可靠性寿命管理工作落后的根源在于管理观念落后、管理体制不健全、基础工作薄弱、标准不完善。参照西方国家的管理理念，构建和完善我国航空发动机可靠性和寿命管理是必要的，但完全照搬西方标准并不可取。正确做法是结合我国的现状，走出一条合乎国情的道路。     

Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time

This paper presents a technique for predicting system performance reliability in real-time considering multiple failure modes. The technique includes on-line multivariate monitoring and forecasting of selected performance measures and conditional performance reliability estimates. The performance measures across time are treated as a multivariate time series. A state–space approach is used to model the multivariate time series. Recursive forecasting is performed by adopting Kalman filtering. The predicted mean vectors and covariance matrix of performance measures are used for the assessment of system survival/reliability with respect to the conditional performance reliability. The technique and modeling protocol discussed in this paper provide a means to forecast and evaluate the performance of an individual system in a dynamic environment in real-time. The paper also presents an example to demonstrate the technique.     

Fault-tolerant embedded system design and optimization considering reliability estimation uncertainty

In this paper, we model embedded system design and optimization, considering component redundancy and uncertainty in the component reliability estimates. The systems being studied consist of software embedded in associated hardware components. Very often, component reliability values are not known exactly. Therefore, for reliability analysis studies and system optimization, it is meaningful to consider component reliability estimates as random variables with associated estimation uncertainty. In this new research, the system design process is formulated as a multiple-objective optimization problem to maximize an estimate of system reliability, and also, to minimize the variance of the reliability estimate. The two objectives are combined by penalizing the variance for prospective solutions. The two most common fault-tolerant embedded system architectures, N-Version Programming and Recovery Block, are considered as strategies to improve system reliability by providing system redundancy. Four distinct models are presented to demonstrate the proposed optimization techniques with or without redundancy. For many design problems, multiple functionally equivalent software versions have failure correlation even if they have been independently developed. The failure correlation may result from faults in the software specification, faults from a voting algorithm, and/or related faults from any two software versions. Our approach considers this correlation in formulating practical optimization models. Genetic algorithms with a dynamic penalty function are applied in solving this optimization problem, and reasonable and interesting results are obtained and discussed.     

Use of digital simulation in reliability analysis for the design of industrial process control systems

Problems of reliability evaluation in man-machine systems in industrial process control are discussed. Opportunities for wider use of digital simulation for reliability prediction of man-machine systems in the design phase are analysed. A particular cognitive model is discussed for its imminent use in reliability studies of control room operations. Expected trends in the use of existing human reliability data bases are reviewed. Unification of control room patterns and procedures in various fields of modern industry is recognized as the main factor permitting the use of human error data stores from the nuclear industry and also for other applications. Relevant restricting conditions are next specified. Finally, the main requirements for a proposed reliability predictive, simulation-based software package for system designers are specified.     

Calculation of some Reliability Measures for Redundancy Systems with Different Types of Failures

The methods developed to determine some reliability measures such as mean operating time to failure, the reliability and availability functions of duplicated systems with n types of failures are discussed. These methods enable the reliability measures to be obtained directly from the state graph without solving a system of algebraic or differential equations. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economical design of reliable systems—some practical situations

Designing reliability into a system is one of the most important objectives of a system disigner. A system normally consists of several components, and the possibility that each component is available in the market in different categories with various specifications, reliability values and costs requires serious consideration while designing a system. Therefore, the difficulty which the system designer always comes across is how to choose an appropriate combination of components so that the achieved system reliability is maximum for the given cost. The present paper aims at investigating an efficient approach which generates directly those combinations of components which guarantee the maximum system reliability at a specified cost. Also, if the system designer wants to increase his resources, the proposed method provides a way of selecting a configuration with higher reliability if it exists. Based on the developed algorithm an interactive package has been prepared, which also permits the user to exercise options such as minimum acceptable reliability value, maximum affordable cost, duty ratios for components which work for a period less than the mission time, and criticality values for components which are not fully critical. A complete example illustrating all these features is also discussed.     

含有屏蔽数据的截尾样本下部件的可靠性分析

基于屏蔽的系统寿命数据,讨论串联系统中Burr XII部件的可靠性估计问题.利用定数截尾样本,通过Bayes分析方法分别在平方损失、q-对称熵损失、Linex损失以及MLinex损失下给出了部件未知参数、可靠度函数和失效率函数的Bayes估计.最后通过Monte-Carlo方法进行随机模拟,研究截尾数和屏蔽水平对估计效果的影响并对各种估计进行了比较.     

Reliability Analysis and Evaluation of Differential System Based on low Load Strengthening Model

The differential is an important part of a driveline, and differential performance is related to the handling and stability performance of a vehicle. Thus, a differential with sound design structure and reasonable form and size parameters could lead to satisfactory driving performance. In this work, we analyze and evaluate the reliability of the key parts of a differential system. Firstly, each of key parts is regarded as a subsystem of a differential system, so the subsystem reliability models are obtained. A system reliability model is built based on the paths of the forces from the differential system, and system reliability is calculated. Secondly, according to the result of the analysis of system reliability and the use of the six sigma method, 45 steel or 1Cr18Ni9Ti utilized as the material for the worm shaft, system reliability is analyzed and discussed separately. Then, the reliability of the key parts and the overall system reliability increase with the low load strengthening characteristic of the material. Finally, according to the analysis and discussion, the level of system reliability matches that required for differential systems, and the cost is also considerably reduced, as demonstrated using the stress–strength interference and low‐load strengthening models. These results provide a theoretical basis for the improvement of the design of Torsen differentials. Similar methods can be used to develop automobile subsystems in the future. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于车桥耦合随机振动分析的钢桥疲劳可靠度评估

发展了一种基于车桥耦合系统随机振动分析的铁路钢桥疲劳可靠度评估方法,建立车桥耦合系统模型,选取车速和轨道不平顺作为基本随机变量进行随机振动分析,以此确定桥梁构件等效疲劳应力幅及其循环次数的概率模型。在此基础上,建立基于S-N曲线法的疲劳极限状态函数并进行疲劳可靠度分析。以一座铁路下承式钢桁梁桥为例进行了疲劳可靠度评估,并讨论了车速及轨道平顺性对构件疲劳可靠性的影响。结果表明:该文方法可有效用于铁路钢桥疲劳可靠度评估;受车速及轨道不平顺随机性的影响,列车引起的桥梁构件等效疲劳应力幅及其循环次数均具有一定的不确定性,应视为随机变量,二者可采用对数正态分布表示;车速和轨道不平顺可显著影响桥梁构件的疲劳可靠性,疲劳关键构件的可靠度指标随着轨道平顺性增强而提高。     

Influence of quality of manufacture on electronic equipment and system reliability

For electronic equipment and systems a correspondance of predominant faults is observed during the electrical test phases at board and at system level prior to use, and during subsequent application of the system. Relationships are expected based on the common causes of these faults. Such faults might be those that have escaped detection during electrical testing, faults that induce secondary latent defects on parts, or original latent defects incorporated in the installed components. Causes and effects are discussed. Measures have been taken over several years to improve the manufacturing quality of electronic equipment following these aspects. It is shown, by practical experience with an electronic communication system, that an improvement of manufacturing quality by a factor of 5 has increased system reliability by about the same degree. This noticeable effect of the manufacturing quality of printed circuit board assemblies on the reliability of the system and on the failure rates of installed components is not considered by usual reliability prediction models. The observed failure rates of components are low when compared to values of prediction models, even including those component types contributing to focal points of failure with the achieved level of reliability.     

Fault-tolerant computing concepts for aerospace applications—a survey

A fault-tolerant computing system performs its intended functions irrespective of the occurrence of certain failures. As the system becomes more and more reliable with built-in fault-tolerance, its analysis, validation and comparison with another system become formidable tasks. Such a study involves issues such as fault classification, figures of merit, fault-tolerant architectures, coverage estimation and automated methods of reliability evaluation. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of all these topics. The new concept of performability, which combines both the performance and the reliability of a system, and the configuration optimisation of a gracefully degradable computing system are also discussed.     

桁架结构系统静强度与疲劳的耦合可靠性分析

根据结构可靠性分析理论和疲劳载荷对结构造成的损伤,建立了元件静强度和疲劳耦合可靠性分析的失效判别准则,给出了元件静强度失效时所对应的当量寿命,分析了元件静强度失效和疲劳失效之间的相互影响,进而讨论了结构系统静强度和疲劳的耦合可靠性分析方法。算例表明:在不同的使用年限内,静强度失效和疲劳失效对结构系统失效的贡献是不同的;在结构系统主要失效路径中既有元件静强度失效又有元件疲劳失效;若只考虑单一因素(或静强度、或疲劳)下的可靠性分析,可能会导致结构不安全。     

通用雷达故障诊断专家系统的设计

目的：为了提高雷达装备故障诊断的效率和可靠性。方法：通过对雷达装备综合测试和故障诊断要求和方法的分析。介绍一种适用于雷达装备的故障智能诊断专家模型，探讨了该模型的基本结构和相应的推理机制及故障诊断策略。结果：结论雷达故障诊断的特点，研究了该模型及诊断方法在雷达装备中的具体应用，证实了该方法是有效的。结论：将自动测试技术和专家系统相结合，可以提高故障诊断的效率和可靠性。     

Reliability models for computer systems: An overview including dataflow graphs

The reliability of a system is the probability that the system will perform its intended mission under given conditions. This paper provides an overview of the approaches to reliability modelling and identifies their strengths and weaknesses. The models discussed include structure models, simple stochastic models and decomposable stochastic models. Ignoring time-dependence, structure models give reliability as a function of the topological structure of the system. Simple stochastic models make direct use of the properties of underlying stochastic processes, while decomposable models consider more complex systems and analyse them through subsystems. Petri nets and dataflow graphs facilitate the analysis of complex systems by providing a convenient framework for reliability analysis.