共查询到18条相似文献,搜索用时 93 毫秒
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梁猛 《中国新技术新产品》2013,(8)
本文对电力工程的风险管理的特点及重要意义进行了详细的介绍,并且深入的分析了电力工程项目风险的研究现状以及存在的主要问题,对电力工程项目风险管理的完善与创新进行了进一步的研究与探讨,以期为推进电力工程项目风险管理提供有效的理论参考。 相似文献
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改进的项目风险模糊评价研究 总被引:16,自引:0,他引:16
项目风险评价是对风险的规律性进行研究和量化分析评价的过程.基于信息熵理论,基于模糊评价方法,提出改进的项目风险模糊评价模型,并结合某一大型工程项目的风险评价,进行了实证研究.结果表明有一定的改进和实践意义. 相似文献
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《中国新技术新产品》2017,(10)
近年来我国建筑行业取得了较快的发展,建筑工程项目不断增加,这也需要加强对建筑工程施工项目的风险管理,提前识别工程项目施工中可能存在的风险,并采取有效的措施加以应对,有效地降低施工项目风险所带来的损失,确保建筑工程项目的顺利实施。本文从建筑工程施工项目风险研究入手,分析了建筑工程施工项目风险的识别与评估,并进一步对建筑工程施工项目风险控制进行了具体的阐述。 相似文献
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本文对代建制模式下工程项目的风险识别进行了系统的分析研究。首先,定义了代建项目风险,并对代建项“目风险的来源和特征进行了阐述;接下来,分析了代建制工程项目风险识别的概念、过程和原则;最后,系统总结了代建制项目风险识别的技术。 相似文献
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运用模糊综合评价方法建立数学模型对企业项目进行风险分析,根据企业项目风险评价的特殊性,对企业项目风险进行系统评价,从而使企业达到识别风险、量化风险和制定有效的规避措施,为企业项目的风险评估提供一个较为科学的评价方法。 相似文献
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知识管理视角下的项目风险管理过程与集成 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
项目风险的实质是缺乏预测未来不利事件的足够知识,这些知识包括知识的缺乏、误用、不确定性以及知识管理等方面.除了特定领域的专业知识外,项目风险的分析、评价、控制等本身也是一种特殊的知识.与以往基于过程控制的项目风险管理方法相比,基于知识的项目风险管理把引起风险的知识因素分析和应对风险的知识工作的成本估计引入到通用的项目风险管理过程中来,以实现组织知识管理与项目风险管理的有效集成. 相似文献
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《中国新技术新产品》2015,(10)
随着我国经济的快速发展,国家对于航空工业的投入也越来越大,发展我国具有自主知识产权的航空器是国家现阶段以及未来很长一段时间都需要关注的问题。但是,由于航空项目研究具有较大的不确定性,因此,需要对航空项目中所面临的风险进行分析并管理。但是,现今我国所具有的航空项目风险管理方法已经无法适应航空项目的快速发展,做好航空项目的风险管理需要采用新的航空项目风险管理分析法来应对现今航空项目的快速发展。基于航空项目所具有的特点,可以采用一种基于模糊层次的分析法来对航空项目的风险进行管理。此种方法通过对航空项目所面临的风险因素进行识别、分类以及进行分层次结构的建模、模糊判断矩阵的构造以及排序等的方法步骤,针对航空项目风险管理中所面临的两个关键予以初步的解决。 相似文献
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基于蒙特卡罗模拟模型的投资项目风险分析 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
运用蒙特卡罗模拟模型和程序,结合实际工程项目,分析评估了项目的主要风险因素,借助EXCEL软件对项目风险进行了模拟和测试,给出了项目风险模拟的结果.由结果可以看出,项目总体上有较高的抗风险能力,并且能够达到预期的投资收益目标.同时,项目风险评估中的蒙特卡罗模拟方法占用的资源少、操作性强,对于项目风险评估是有用的. 相似文献
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本文从评价的内容、原则、指标体系、评价方法等方面建立了一套客观、完整的旅游开发项目风险评价体系,希望对相关主体增强旅游开发项目风险防范意识、提高旅游开发项目风险防控水平有所帮助。 相似文献
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解决国产首架大型客机研制工程项目风险管理诸多国际性难题,提出三维风险管理、熵风险评价原理和方法,攻克大型客机研制项目组织、进度五个领域全寿命期风险管理的系列关键问题,创建了与全球配置接轨的、大型工程跨国研制的风险管理模式,以及群集成管理全量表操作实施体系(英APM-BOK V4.0),建立一体化信息风险管理平台以实现全寿命期风险管理协同效应优化,确保低风险、优质高效地实现建设目标。 相似文献
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海外柔性直流输电工程项目的质量管理与国内的工程质量管理存在一定差异。在管理过程中,需要根据国际相关标准的项目质量管理思路,树立正确的质量管理理念。结合ISO 9001:2015、ISO 21500:2012和PMBOK质量管理体系标准,从知识管理、变更管理、资源管理、利益相关者管理、风险管理、沟通管理6个方面改进项目质量管理流程,提出适用于海外柔性直流输电工程项目的质量管理体系。最后,提出了海外柔性直流输电工程项目质量管理成熟度综合评价方法,对该体系成熟度进行了分析验证,为海外柔性直流输电工程项目质量管理工作提供借鉴。 相似文献
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Molly K. Floyd Kash Barker Claudio M. Rocco Mackenzie G. Whitman 《Engineering Management Journal; EMJ》2017,29(3):165-178
Inherent in project management is the risk that a project fails to meet planned completion deadlines due to delays experienced in individual tasks. As such, certain critical tasks may be candidates for risk management (e.g., the allocation of additional resources such as labor, materials, and equipment) to prevent delays. A common means to identify such critical tasks is with the critical path method (CPM), which identifies a path of tasks in a project network that, when delayed, result in project delays. This work offers a complementary, stochastic approach to CPM that ranks tasks according to their effect on the project completion time distribution, when the distributions of task completion time are delayed. The new hybrid approach is based on the use of a Monte Carlo simulation and a multi-criteria decision analysis technique. Monte Carlo simulation allows for approximating the cumulative distribution function of the total duration of the project, while the multi-criteria decision analysis technique is used to compare and rank the tasks across percentiles of the resulting project completion time distributions. Doing so allows for different percentile weighting schemes to represent decision maker risk preferences. The suggested approach is applied to two project network examples. The examples illustrate that the proposed approach highlights some tasks as risky, which may not always lie on the critical path as identified by CPM. This is valuable for practicing managers as it allows them to properly consider their risk preferences when determining task criticality based on the distribution of project completion time (e.g., emphasizing median vs. upper tail completion time). 相似文献
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Chao Ou-Yang 《中国工程学刊》2013,36(5):378-390
AbstractMany uncertainties and cost variations occur in the work activities of a project, thereby causing many possibilities of under-estimating or over-estimating for a bid price. A comprehensive study for each process of risk management should be investigated to achieve project objectives. However, a limited number of studies have a comprehensive viewpoint to indicate the benefits of risk management and the effect on project performance for the engineering design stage of engineering–procurement–construction (EPC) projects, especially in the basic design stage. This research was conducted to identify and analyze the risks associated with a Basic Design Engineering (BDE) project for a high value-added petrochemical plant in Taiwan. First, a project risk management work flow was proposed as an effective tool to minimize the project risks and maximize the management capacity of practitioners. Second, the cost effect of project risks was described by conducting a case study for the design process of a high value-added petrochemical plant using a Monte Carlo simulation. A risk register was identified to support the data required for conducting simulation analysis. The results of this paper provide reference points for risk management planning of project execution and help project managers evaluate particular risks at the engineering design stage of EPC projects to avoid cost overruns. 相似文献
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It is observed that most of the infrastructure projects fail to meet their cost and time constraints, which will lead to a low return on investment. The paper highlights that the present risk management tools and techniques do not provide an adequate basis for response selection in managing critical risks specific to infrastructure projects. This paper proposes a risk quantification methodology and demonstrates its application for an industrial construction project. A case study is used to present an application of the proposed risk management methodology to help organisations efficiently choose risk response strategy and allocate limited resources. The research adopts an integrated approach to prioritize risks using Group Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (GTOPSIS) and to quantify risks in terms of overall project delays using Judgemental Risk Analysis Process (JRAP), and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). A comparison between the results of qualitative risk analysis using GTOPSIS and quantitative risk analysis i.e., JRAP and MCS is presented. It is found that JRAP along with MCS could provide some powerful results which could help the management control project risks. The crux of this paper is that the risks are highly dependent on project schedule and the proposed methodology could give a better risk priority list because it considers slackness associated with the project activities. The analysis can help improve the understanding of implications of specific risk factors on project completion time and cost, while it attempts to quantify risks. In turn, this enables the project manager to devise a suitable strategy for risk response and mitigation. 相似文献