Nested Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Coastal River Applying Dynamic-Coupling

This paper presents a nested hydrodynamic model of the Fish River, a tributary of the sub-estuary Weeks Bay located in Mobile Bay, Alabama. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) and a novel dynamic-coupling tool were used to link three EFDC hydrodynamic models corresponding to Mobile Bay, Weeks Bay, and the Fish River. The dynamically-coupled models were used to simulate inundation scenarios for combinations of 2-, 7.5-, 10-, 25-, and 100-year floods, and the hurricane surge that occurred during hurricane Katrina. The nested and dynamically-coupled model was developed using available public-access bathymetry and topography databases (National Elevation Dataset, and NOAA bathymetry), and run without recurring to calibration techniques. The simulation of combined scenarios showed that inundated areas increase from 0.07 % up to 189 % with respect to the actual flood that took place during the Katrina event (Katrina?+?1-year flood). The results suggest that increases in inundated area are relatively much higher from a 1-year flood to a 7.5 year-flood (128 % flooded area increase) than for higher return periods. For the 25-year and the 100-year floods, inundated areas almost triple from the area corresponding to the base-case (Katrina event), with percent increases of 182 % and 189 % respectively.     

十三围防洪保护区洪水风险分析

十三围防洪保护区位于珠江河网区域的西江和北江交汇后的西江右岸,西江洪水峰高量大,洪水威胁严重,进行洪水风险分析十分必要。考虑到珠江河网区域水流运动复杂,基于一维水动力学模型构建了珠江河网一维模型,并根据历史洪水资料验证了模型的可靠性。为了反映保护区内的河道、堤防、道路等对洪水传播的影响,采用精细化的非结构网格构建了十三围保护区二维水动力学模型进行洪水演进模拟。通过一、二维耦合模型,分别对江根段、西头窦段溃口进行了西江50,100,200 a一遇设计洪水下的洪水淹没方案计算,并对计算成果进行了合理性分析,包括水量平衡分析、局部流场分析、溃口流量水位过程分析等。结合社会经济数据进行了受淹面积、受影响人口、淹没损失等方面的洪水影响分析,可为防汛抢险、避洪转移等提供重要信息参考。     

Performance assessment of two-dimensional hydraulic models for generation of flood inundation maps in mountain river basins

Hydraulic models for the generation of flood inundation maps are not commonly applied in mountain river basins because of the difficulty in modeling the hydraulic behavior and the complex topography. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of four twodimensional hydraulic models(HEC-RAS 2D, Iber 2D, Flood Modeller 2D, and PCSWMM 2D) with respect to the generation of flood inundation maps. The study area covers a 5-km reach of the Santa Barbara River located in the Ecuadorian Andes, at 2330 masl, in Gualaceo.The model's performance was evaluated based on the water surface elevation and flood extent, in terms of the mean absolute difference and measure of fit. The analysis revealed that, for a given case, Iber 2D has the best performance in simulating the water level and inundation for flood events with 20-and 50-year return periods, respectively, followed by Flood Modeller 2D, HEC-RAS 2D, and PCSWMM 2D in terms of their performance. Grid resolution, the way in which hydraulic structures are mimicked, the model code, and the default value of the parameters are considered the main sources of prediction uncertainty.     

钱塘江口北岸超强台风潮水淹没数值模拟研究

针对陆域保护区低于外江高水位的钱塘江河口地区,以1949年以来登陆我国沿海最强的"5612"号台风为典型超强台风控制条件,对河口北岸平原潮水淹没情况进行了数值模拟研究。首先对地形进行概化,将平原内的二线堤防及具有挡潮作用的道路单独处理;然后以海堤极限防御能力计算分析为依据,确定超强台风作用下海堤损毁程度;最后采用覆盖两侧区域的二维风暴潮模型对北岸平原的淹没情况进行计算分析。结果表明,在超强台风作用下,钱塘江河口淹没区可随时段累积沿后方二线堤防及道路逐步推进,此类线状建筑物具有较好的挡潮作用;现状条件下,钱塘江河口北岸遭遇超强台风后,其最大淹没水深可达2.87 m,淹没面积达到127.52 km2。     

太湖流域大尺度洪涝淹没仿真模型的建立及应用

利用DEM数据及GIS空间分析技术构建洪涝淹没分析模块,将圩区概化为"零维调蓄单元",实现圩区的精细化模拟,与细化后的太湖流域水文水动力学模型耦合,建立能够可靠模拟太湖流域洪涝淹没状态的数学模型.选择2016年流域性暴雨洪涝资料进行模拟验证,与代表站实测水位及实际洪涝灾情分布对比表明,构建的洪涝淹没仿真模型可靠有效.针...     

Modelling floodplain inundation on a regulated river: integrating GIS,remote sensing and hydrological models

The lower River Murray in South Australia is highly regulated through weirs and water extraction for irrigation. Management of the river for environmental purposes requires an understanding of the extent of floodplain inundation from various flows and weir manipulations. This study aimed to produce a floodplain inundation model for the 600 km long and 1–5 km wide portion of the River Murray in South Australia from the New South Wales border to Lake Alexandrina. The model was developed using a Geographical Information System (GIS), remote sensing and hydrological modelling. Flood inundation extents were monitored from Landsat satellite imagery for a range of flows, interpolated to model flood growth patterns and linked to a hydrological model of the river. The resulting model can be analysed for flows ranging from minimum flow to a 1‐in‐13‐year flood event for any month and weir configuration and has been independently tested using aerial photography to an accuracy of approximately 15% underestimate. The results have proven the approach for determining flood inundation over a large area at approximately one‐tenth of the cost of detailed elevation and hydrodynamic modelling. The GIS model allows prediction of impacts on infrastructure, wetlands and floodplain vegetation, allowing quantitative analysis of flood extent to be used as an input into the management decision process. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ASSESSMENT OF RIPARIAN VEGETATION SENSITIVITY TO RIVER HYDROLOGY DOWNSTREAM OF A MAJOR TEXAS DAM

Dams may impact the health of downstream riparian vegetation communities through flow modifications such as decreased flood frequency and duration. Without historical vegetation data, however, it is difficult to relate changes in vegetation composition to hydrology patterns downstream of dams. We studied bottomland hardwood forests downstream of Toledo Bend Dam on the Sabine River in Texas and Louisiana to determine their sensitivity to minor changes in river hydrology with a particular focus on floods. Current riparian vegetation was characterized within three topographic zones at three selected sites below the dam. Using 80 years of hydrologic records from two gauging stations downstream of the dam, we evaluated trends in flood frequency, flood duration, peak discharge and total flood discharge in those periods before (1926?1965) and after (1971?2005) dam construction, as well as related flood stage to floodplain elevations to link topography to flood frequency. Plant species diversity in this system is highly dependent on minor changes in elevation, and the proportion of wetland‐dependent species changes rapidly with only a few centimeters difference in elevation. Although 50% of trees, shrubs and herbs in the sloughs were wetland adapted, their numbers were only 21% in the levees (74–284 cm higher in elevation) and 14% in the mid‐floodplains. Since dam construction, total flood discharge and duration at the most upstream gauge on the Sabine River decreased by 49%. At both gauges, mean discharge was also altered with higher summer flows. Patterns of tree regeneration point to less recruitment by wetland‐dependent species in the years following dam construction. These results suggest that minor changes in flood magnitude might limit occurrence of wetland species to the lowest topographic zones and illustrate the need to analyse sensitivity of plants to minor changes in flood characteristics when historical data for the vegetation community are lacking. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

双向波演算模型验证

针对河口地区洪水演算受地形、河床结构影响大的特点,水动力学方法常受这些资料条件限制而导致其使用效果不佳或甚至无法使用问题.在水量平衡、河段单元蓄量方程和谢才公式基础上,提出了以物理定律为基础的水位演算模型.考虑到河口地区河道洪水运动受上游洪水波的顺水传播影响的同时又受下游潮水波的逆水传播作用特点,提出了双向波水位演算设想,把水位演算模型改进成了适合于河口特点的双向波水位演算模型.再结合动力学数学物理方程,提出双向隐式差分格式,组成了差分解模型,进而证明了河道水流双向波演算模型与运动波方程的一致性及其演算模型的物理基础.并在曹娥江的河口段进行了检验,表明双向波水位演算模型结构合理、模拟效果良好.     

EFDC模型在长江口及相邻海域三维水流模拟中的开发应用

基于公开代码的EFDC(Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code)模型,建立了范围包括长江下游段、长江口、杭州湾及邻近海域的三维水流数值模型。用Deflt3D附带软件得到了长江口海域正交曲线网格剖分,更好地实现了网格与地形边界的拟合;并在模拟浅滩动力过程中,设置最小水深条件限制,成功地消除了复杂浅滩地形情况下原模式运行出现负水深的局限。利用10个潮位站的实测潮位以及9个流速测站的水流流速资料对模型参数进行了验证和率定。模拟结果能够与实测值较好地吻合,各站模拟计算潮位值相对误差小于10%,。率定、改造后的模型不仅能够较好地模拟反映长江口海域三维潮汐及水流运动,而且还能对潮流运动特征进行分析。该模型可用于长江口海域相关问题的进一步研究。     

应用改进BP网络对潼关高程的预测

作者在分析了影响汛前和汛后潼关高程变化值的因素的基础上，利用改进BP网络模型对非特征汛期和汛期潼关高程的变化值进行了计算。计算中不采用潼关的绝对高程，而用高程的变化量作为网络的较出物正量，从而减少计算误差，同时又能客观地考虑各影响因子的作用。改进后的BP模型学习时间短，精度满足要求。用该模型计算的潼关高程变化趋势与实际水库调度运行中的高程基本吻合。     

长江口水文监测站网选址合理性分析及优化

长江口河势演变复杂,涉水开发与保护项目众多,水文监测站点选址是一项技术难题。在分析确定水文站选址原则的基础上,结合近期河床演变过程以及涉水工程建设、生态环境保护的需求,研究提出了更为全面的站点选址原则。基于此,系统评价了长江口水文监测站网工程10个新建站点的选址合理性,并对5个不合理站址进行了优化,有力支撑了站网工程建设。长江口水文监测站网选址原则、合理性评价方法、站网优化思路可供长江口及其他河口类似工程的建设借鉴参考。     

Improving Hydrodynamic Modelling: an Analytical Framework for Assessment of Two‐Dimensional Hydrodynamic Models

Two‐dimensional hydrodynamic models are increasingly common in riverine research and management. However, input data are not standardized among studies, and assessments of model performance are uncommon, which hinder interpretation of model results and comparisons among studies. Herein, we describe a framework for two‐dimensional hydrodynamic model input data collection, model calibration and validation to evaluate model predictions. We present a logical process for the validation of depth and velocity that recognizes the inherent spatial uncertainty in the field measurements and modelling results. The hydrodynamic model we present as an example shows agreement between predicted and observed water surface elevation, area of inundation and spatial distributions of depth and velocity at calibration and independent validation discharges. If this model development and assessment framework was adopted by others, it would allow comparison between studies and provide a foundation for establishing model performance standards. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

松滋江堤防洪保护区洪水风险研究(Ⅰ)——模型的建立与验证

长江中下游地处冲积平原,洪水灾害较为频繁,沿江堤防是生命财产和生产设施的第一道屏障。其中荆江河段洪水峰高量大,且两岸支流众多、江湖关系复杂,防洪形势尤为严峻。以上荆江松滋江堤防洪保护区为研究对象,分析了可能产生的堤防溃口;在对复杂的荆江—洞庭湖水系进行概化的基础上,建立一二维耦合数学模型,研究了1 000 a一遇洪水条件下松滋江堤发生溃决后长江干流及防洪保护区内的洪水演进过程,并以最大淹没水深、淹没时间及最大流速为风险要素,分析了保护区内的洪水风险分布情况。文章共分为2篇,此为第一篇,旨在阐述一二维耦合数学模型建立与率定验证过程。     

Predicting Floodplain Hypoxia in the Atchafalaya River,Louisiana, USA,a Large,Regulated Southern Floodplain River System

The Atchafalaya River Basin Floodway (ARBF), a regulated river/floodplain distributary of the Mississippi River, experiences an annual flood pulse that strongly influences floodplain physicochemistry. We developed several metrics to investigate the relationship between the timing and magnitude of the flood pulse and floodplain hypoxia, which in most years is a spatially extensive and temporally prolonged problem in the lower ARBF. Principal components analysis of flood metrics from 2001 to 2009 revealed contrasting flood types (early cool and late warm), but component‐based general linear models were unable to predict the magnitude of hypoxia in ARBF water management areas (WMAs). Further analyses based on temperature and geographic information system‐determined WMA inundation with generalized additive models (GAMs) revealed WMA‐specific patterns of hypoxia, but the likelihood of hypoxia consistently increased when temperatures approached 20°C and inundation rose above 20–30%. Validation with held‐out data based on logistic regression indicated that the models constructed with the 2001–2009 temperature and inundation data were able to accurately predict the probabilities of hypoxia in two WMAs based on data collected from 2010 to 2013. The GAMs were an effective tool for visualizing and predicting the probability of hypoxia based on two easily generated parameters. Our analyses indicate that modification of the Atchafalaya River flood pulse could reduce the magnitude of hypoxia within the lower ARBF, subject to engineering (control structure operation) and economic (commercial fisheries production) constraints, by minimizing floodplain inundation after water temperatures reach 20°C. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

小浪底水库2002年调水调沙下游河道洪水演进跟踪模拟计算

本文采用黄河下游河道洪水演进数学模型，开展了2002年汛期小浪底水库调水调沙下游河道洪水演进与河床冲淤演变时实跟踪计算，计算结果与调水调沙后整编的实测资料对比分析发现，该模型能够较准确复演天然河道的水沙演进与河床冲淤演变过程．可以在黄河下游河道洪水演进及河床冲淤演变预测中应用。     

基于DELFT3D HM模型的苍海湿地公园洪水淹没模拟研究

洪水淹没情景受区域洪水流量、河床地形变化、河道工程运行调度等多因素影响,对于洪灾情景的确定,是开展河道与滩区治理研究以及进行防洪设计和滩区功能定位的前提条件。为此,以苍海湿地公园区域为例,利用Delft3D HM模型建立起二维洪水演进模型,进而模拟洪水淹没过程。模型采用P=20 a一遇洪水历史资料进行验证,结果合理;采用P=50 a一遇洪水对苍海湿地公园流域内洪水淹没过程进行了模拟,得到了实时淹没范围、最大淹没区域、水位变化过程等洪涝区内的特征水力要素信息。成果为该区域内的防洪规划和实时洪水预报提供理论参考,同样为后期洪涝区内水质提升工程提供可靠参数。     

基于集合预报的淮河流域洪水预报研究

建立基于集合预报的淮河具有行蓄洪区流域洪水预报及早期预警模型。在洪水预报中引入数值天气预报以延长洪水预报的预见期。集合预报采用多模式和多分析集合预报技术,考虑初始场的不确定性和模式的不确定性,避免“单一”确定性数值天气预报结果易存在的预报误区。THORPEX 项目支撑的THORPEXInteractiveGrand GlobalEnsemble（TIGGE ）集合预报目的是建立全球交互式预报系统。本文以淮河流域为试验流域,以TIGGE 集合预报（加拿大气象中心（简称CMC,集合成员数为15个）、 欧洲中期天气预报中心（简称ECMWF,集合成员数为51个）、 英国气象局（简称UKMO ,集合成员数为24个）、 美国国家环境预测中心（简称NCEP,集合成员数为15个））驱动构建的水文与水力学相结合的具有行蓄洪区流域洪水预报模型以达延长洪水预报的预见期,新安江模型用于降雨径流计算、一维水动力学模型用于河道洪水演算,实现洪水预报及早期预警。为了进行比较,同时采用地面雨量计观测降水驱动构建的洪水预报模型,对2007和2008年淮河汛期洪水进行检验。结果表明,基于TIGGE 集合预报驱动的洪水预报预见期延长了72~120h ,证明了TIGGE 集合预报可以应用于洪水预报及早期预警。     

地形演变对黄河口切变锋位置及盐度分布的影响

基于FVCOM三维海洋数值模式建立了黄河口水动力模型,通过实测资料对数值模型进行了验证。验证结果表明建立的模型能很好的反映研究区域的水动力特性。利用该模型的数值模拟较好地再现了黄河口切变锋现象,并对两种不同类型的切变锋的形成、传播和持续时间的规律进行了分析研究。利用历年来黄河口地形演变的大致规律对黄河口附近的水下地形进行了演变,发现地形对切变锋形成位置有一定的影响,例如随着地形向外海淤进,切变锋的位置也随之向外海移动。还研究了地形的变化对黄河口海域盐度分布的影响,发现随着地形的演变,低盐度海水分布的范围会随之变大。     

Utility of remotely operated underwater vehicle in flood inundation mapping for dam failure: A case study of Lake Tuscaloosa Dam

A remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV) is a tethered underwater mobile device that can conduct a bathymetric survey cost-efficiently. Assessment of the utility of ROV-based bathymetric surveys in flood inundation mapping remains limited. This study aims to examine the utility of ROV-based bathymetric surveys in high-resolution flood inundation mapping for a hypothetical case study of the Lake Tuscaloosa Dam breach in the state of Alabama, USA. This study conducted the sensitivity test of flood inundation mapping to the river channel depth (ROV-based vs. digital elevation model [DEM]-based) and initial flow condition (e.g., wet vs. dry), via six different simulations of the parallelized diffusion hydrodynamic model (pDHM). This study found that the ROV-based pDHM runs had higher maximum water depths over the flood-inundated areas, ranging from +73% to +166% of the simulated depths of the DEM-based pDHM runs. However, the impact of initial streamflow condition on the maximum depths was limited. This study also found that the pDHM runs with a dry initial flow condition delayed the time to reach the maximum depth after the dam breach by 2 h relative to the pDHM runs with a wet initial streamflow condition. This study suggests that ROV-based bathymetry surveys improve flood inundation mapping by emphasizing the influence of river channel depth, initial streamflow conditions, and bathymetry, thereby bolstering community resilience to a potential human-made hazard such as dam failure.     

Neural networks for fast fluvial flood predictions: Too good to be true?

Accurate models with low computational times are required to predict the consequences of fluvial floods in real-time. Even though detailed hydraulic models can predict flood water levels and corresponding inundation extents with high accuracy, their computational times limit their applicability to being used as a flood early-warning system. Therefore, conceptual models were developed in the literature for many years. These types of models do not attempt to represent the complex dynamic flood generation processes but are based on simplified hydraulic concepts, generally only using a digital elevation model as input. However, a shift in this research field is currently present from conceptual models to data-driven models, and more specifically to neural networks. This paper discusses the benefits and drawbacks of both modelling approaches and speculates which method is most promising to be used as a flood warning system to predict the consequences of fluvial floods in real-time.