Gross design and construction errors, and seismic risk studies

The seismic risk estimates and seismic margin assessment for nuclear power plants should consider the potential effects of design and construction errors. These errors generally modify the component responses and fragilities. The concern with design and construction errors is that they may simultaneously affect a large number of systems and structures and negate the possible benefits of redundancy. A methodology for treating the effects of gross errors in seismic PRA and seismic margin studies consist of enumeration and classification of errors, sensitivity studies to identify significant errors, collection of data on errors and incorporation into the margin and risk estimation.     

Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant risk studies

Seismic fragilities of critical structures and equipment are developed as families of conditional failure frequency curves plotted against peak ground acceleration. The procedure is based on available data combined with judicious extrapolation of design information on plant structures and equipment. Representative values of fragility parameters for typical modern nuclear power plants are provided. Based on the fragility evaluation for about a dozen nuclear power plants, it is proposed that unnecessary conservatism existing in current seismic design practice could be removed by properly accounting for inelastic energy absorption capabilities of structures. The paper discusses the key contributors to seismic risk and the significance of possible correlation between component failures and potential design and construction errors.     

Seismic individual plant examination of external events of US nuclear power plants: insights and implications

As part of the implementation of the severe accident policy, nuclear power plants in the US are conducting the individual plant examination of external events (IPEEE). Seismic events are treated in these IPEEEs by either a seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) or a seismic margin assessment. The major elements of a seismic PRA are the seismic hazard analysis, seismic fragility evaluation of structures and equipment and systems analysis using event tree and fault tree analysis techniques to develop accident sequences and calculate their frequencies of occurrence. The seismic margin assessment is a deterministic evaluation of the seismic margin of the plant beyond the design basis earthquake. A review level earthquake is selected and some of the components that are on the success paths are screened out as exceeding the review level earthquake; the remaining ones are evaluated for their seismic capacity using information from the original plant design criteria, test data and plant walkdown. The IPEEEs of over 100 operating nuclear power plants are nearing completion. This paper summarizes the lessons learned in conducting the IPEEEs and their applicability to nuclear power plants outside of the United States.     

Lower bound earthquake magnitude for probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation

This paper presents the results of a study that develops an engineering and seismological basis for selecting a lower-bound magnitude (LBM) for use in seismic hazard assessment. As part of a seismic hazard analysis the range of earthquake magnitudes that are included in the assessment of the probability of exceedance of ground motion must be defined. The upper-bound magnitude is established by earth science experts based on their interpretation of the maximum size of earthquakes that can be generated by a seismic source. The lower-bound or smallest earthquake that is considered in the analysis must also be specified.The LBM limits the earthquakes that are considered in assessing the probability that specified ground motion levels are exceeded. In the past there has not been a direct consideration of the appropriate LBM value that should be used in a seismic hazard assessment. This study specifically looks at the selection of a LBM for use in seismic hazard analyses that are input to the evaluation/design of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Topics addressed in the evaluation of a LBM are earthquake experience data at heavy industrial facilities, engineering characteristics of ground motions associated with small-magnitude earthquakes, probabilistic seismic risk assessments (seismic PRAs), and seismic margin evaluations. The results of this study and the recommendations concerning a LBM for use in seismic hazard assessments are discussed.     

核电厂人因可靠性分析中的相关性分析方法研究

人因可靠性分析(HRA)是核电厂风险分析中的重要组成部分,其中人误事件的相关性分析是HRA中必不可少的内容,忽略人误事件间的相关性,将导致低估核电厂的风险水平。本文提出了一种基于D(邓)数和层次分析法-决策试行与评价实验室(AHP-DEMATEL)方法的相关性分析模型。首先,确定两事件间相关性的影响因素及其结构关系,并针对每个影响因素建立相关性等级的隶属度函数及其锚点;其次,利用AHP-DEMATEL方法来确定各影响因素的综合权重;最后,根据实际情况评估各因素的相关性等级并构建D数,并根据D数和综合权重计算出两人因事件的相关性程度及其可信度,通过算例验证了该模型及其方法的有效性。     

Development of the site-specific uniform hazard spectra for Korean nuclear power plant sites

A seismic risk analysis has been performed to evaluate the seismic safety of a nuclear power plant for strong earthquakes beyond a design earthquake level. A site-specific median spectrum has generally been used for a seismic fragility analysis of structures and equipment in Korean nuclear power plants as a part of a probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The site-specific response spectrum, however, does not represent the same probability of an exceedance over entire frequency range of interest. The site-specific uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) is more appropriate for use in a seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) than the site-specific spectrum, since there are only a few strong motion data and seismological information for the nuclear plant sites in Korea. In this study, the uniform hazard spectra were developed using the available seismic hazard data for four Korean NPP sites.     

A comparison of background seismic risks and the incremental seismic risk due to nuclear power plants

The seismic risk for the continental United States, in terms of the expected annual number of deaths and severe injuries, and the expected property damage, is evaluated in this work. Probabilistic models and correlations are developed and used in the evaluations of the risks, accounting for such important variables as the variability of property values, damage factors and so on. In addition, the incremental seismic risk due to the presence of nuclear power plants is evaluated utilizing results and methods available in the literature. The results show that the incremental risk is generally very small compared to the background seismic risk, even if a very high probability for core melt is postulated.     

Seismic probabilistic risk analysis based on stochastic simulation of accelerograms for nuclear power plants in the UK

This article presents an approach to probabilistically assess the seismic risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the UK. The approach proposed is based on direct stochastic simulation of the seismic input to conduct nonlinear dynamic analysis of a structural model of the NPP analysed. Therefore, it does not require the use of ground motion prediction equations and scaling/matching procedures to define suitable accelerograms as is done in conventional approaches. Additionally, as the structural response is directly calculated, it does not require the use of Monte Carlo-type algorithms to simulate the damage state of the NPP analysed. However, it demands longer use of computer resources as a relatively large number of nonlinear dynamic analyses are needed to perform. The approach is illustrated using an example of a 1000 MW Pressurised Water Reactor building located in a representative UK nuclear site. A comparison of risk assessment is made between the conventional and proposed approaches. Results obtained are reasonable and well constrained by conventional procedures; hence, it can confidently be used by the UK New Build Programme in the next two decades to generate 16 GWe of new nuclear capacity.     

核电厂安全壳地震概率风险评估

地震概率风险评估可分别基于地震风险解析函数和风险卷积函数实现。本文推导了地震风险解析函数,分析了地震风险解析函数蕴含的两个基本假设和两个近似,分别基于地震风险解析函数和风险卷积函数计算了我国某核电厂安全壳地震风险。结果表明：采用幂指数函数近似地震危险性极值Ⅱ型分布对风险结果无影响;对于算例厂址,地震风险解析函数中KH和kⅠ为常数的近似会高估核电厂安全壳面临的地震风险;我国核电厂安全壳结构地震风险较低,具有较大安全裕量。建议采用地震风险解析函数初步评估我国核电厂安全壳地震风险。     

Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Containment

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment could be respectively conducted using analytical function of seismic risk and risk convolution function. In this paper, analytical function of seismic risk was conducted, two basic assumptions and two approximations of analytical function of seismic risk were analyzed, and seismic probabilistic risk analysis of a nuclear power plant containment of our country were respectively conducted using analytical function of seismic risk and risk convolution function. The results show that there is no influence on seismic risk results using a power exponent function approximating seismic hazard distribution following extreme value Ⅱ type distribution. For the case of this paper, seismic risk of a nuclear power plant containment is overestimated based on analytical function of seismic risk, which uses constant KH and kⅠ. Seismic risk of a containment is low in our country, which has a large safety margin. It is proposed that the preliminary seismic risk assessment of a nuclear power plant containment of our country using analytical function of seismic risk should be conducted.     

蒸汽发生器非线性支承系统的抗震能力分析

计算核电厂设备的高置信度低失效概率(HCLPF)抗震能力是地震概率安全评价、地震裕度评价的一个重要步骤。以蒸汽发生器支承为研究对象,建立其详细的非线性有限单元模型,通过逐步增大地面运动水平,反复计算系统的响应,最后得到蒸汽发生器支承的抗震能力,并与通过确定性失效裕度法得到的HCLPF进行比较。结果表明,两者的计算结果差别较大。本文建议对于非线性较强的设备需采用非线性时程分析方法计算设备的HCLPF。     

Seismic safety of nuclear power plants in eastern Europe

This paper summarizes the work performed by the International Atomic Energy Agency in the areas of safety review and applied research in support of programmes for the assessment and enhancement of seismic safety in Eastern Europe and in particular, WWER type nuclear power plants during the past seven years. Three major topics are discussed; engineering safety review services in relation to external events, technical guidelines for the assessment and upgrading of WWER type nuclear power plants, and the Coordinated Research Programme on "Benchmark study for the seismic analysis and testing of WWER type nuclear power plants". These topics are summarized in a way to provide an overview of the past and present safety situation in selected WWER type plants which are all located in Eastern European countries. The main conclusion of this paper is that even though there is now a thorough understanding of the seismic safety issues in these operating nuclear power plants, the implementation of seismic upgrades to structures, systems and components are lagging behind, particularly for those cases in which re-evaluation indicated the necessity to strengthen the safety related structures or install new safety systems.     

Seismic margins issues

The effect of very large earthquakes on the safe operation of nuclear power plants is discussed. The fundamental safety and regulatory issues of: (1) uncertainties in the seismic hazard, (2) earthquakes larger than the design basis, and (3) seismic vulnerabilities are described. Finally, the NRC-sponsored Seismic Design Margins Program is described in terms of approach and how this compares with probabilistic risk assessment.     

Numerical computation of fragility curves for NPP equipment

The seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology is a popular approach for evaluating the risk of failure of engineering structures due to earthquake. In this framework, fragility curves express the conditional probability of failure of a structure or component for a given seismic input motion parameter A, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration. The failure probability due to a seismic event is obtained by convolution of fragility curves with seismic hazard curves. In general, a log-normal model is used in order to estimate fragilities. In nuclear engineering practice, these fragilities are determined using safety factors with respect to design earthquake. This approach allows to determine fragility curves based on design study but largely draws on expert judgement and simplifying assumptions. When a more realistic assessment of seismic fragility is needed, simulation-based statistical estimation of fragility curves is more appropriate. In this paper, we will discuss statistical estimation of parameters of fragility curves and present results obtained for a reactor coolant system of nuclear power plant. We have performed non-linear dynamic response analyses using artificially generated strong motion time histories. Uncertainties due to seismic loads as well as model uncertainties are taken into account and propagated using Monte Carlo simulation.     

Discussion of the paper: “Dynamic decoupling of secondary systems, by A.K. Gupta and J.M. Tembulkar, in: Nucl. Engrg. Des. 18 (1984) 359”

Technical aspects of seismic isolation systems show merit for their use in nuclear power plants. Less quantifiable non-technical aspects must be evaluated in the decision to employ a seismic isolation system.First, non-technical aspects are discussed. An historical and applications perspective is given, and it is suggested that the number of applications of seismic isolation systems is correlated with the amount of research activity in this area. For nuclear plants, it is suggested that application of seismic isolation systems is in part related to standardized plant designs in high seismic regions. Also, for nuclear plants, it is suggested that direct capital cost, enhanced seismic safety, regulatory licensing and unknown locations of nearby active faults are all factors which can weigh in favor and/or not in favor for seismic isolation application.Second, technical aspects are discussed. The technical results show that seismic isolation reduces building response, and reduces floor response spectra/equipment response. These results combine in application to reduce seismic risk and thus enhance safety for nuclear plants.     

Seismic isolation for nuclear power plants: Technical and non-technical aspects in decision making

Technical aspects of seismic isolation systems show merit for their use in nuclear power plants. Less quantifiable non-technical aspects must be evaluated in the decision to employ a seismic isolation system.First, non-technical aspects are discussed. An historical and applications perspective is given, and it is suggested that the number of applications of seismic isolation systems is correlated with the amount of research activity in this area. For nuclear plants, it is suggested that application of seismic isolation systems is in part related to standardized plant designs in high seismic regions. Also, for nuclear plants, it is suggested that direct capital cost, enhanced seismic safety, regulatory licensing and unknown locations of nearby active faults are all factors which can weigh in favor and/or not in favor for seismic isolation application.Second, technical aspects are discussed. The technical results show that seismic isolation reduces building response, and reduces floor response spectra/equipment response. These results combine in application to reduce seismic risk and thus enhance safety for nuclear plants.     

A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (I) Methodology

A new procedure for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is proposed. This procedure modifies the current procedures using tools developed recently for performance-based earthquake engineering of buildings. The proposed procedure uses (a) response-based fragility curves to represent the capacity of structural and nonstructural components of NPPs, (b) nonlinear response-history analysis to characterize the demands on those components, and (c) Monte Carlo simulations to determine the damage state of the components. The use of response-rather than ground-motion-based fragility curves enables the curves to be independent of seismic hazard and closely related to component capacity. The use of Monte Carlo procedure enables the correlation in the responses of components to be directly included in the risk assessment. An example of the methodology is presented in a companion paper to demonstrate its use and provide the technical basis for aspects of the methodology.     

Seismic design of nuclear power plants — an assessment

This paper presents a review and evaluation of the design standards and the analytical and experimental methods used in the seismic design of nuclear power plants with emphasis on United States practice. Three major areas were investigated: (a) soils, siting, and seismic ground motion specification; (b) soil-structure interaction; and (c) the response of major nuclear power plant structures and components. The purpose of this review and evaluation program was to prepare an independent assessment of the state-of-the-art of the seismic design of nuclear power plants and to identify seismic analysis and design research areas meriting support by the various organizations comprising the ‘nuclear power industry’. Criteria used for evaluating the relative importance of alternative research areas included the potential research impact on nuclear power plant siting, design, construction, cost, safety, licensing, and regulation.Three methods were used in the study herein. The first involved the review of current literature, focusing primarily on publications dated later than 1970. This review included the results of numerous studies, of which those of Japanese origin and those presented in recent international conferences were predominant. The second method entailed a review of international experience in the dynamic testing of nuclear power plant structures and components, and related experience with scaled and model tests. Included in this experience, in addition to the questions of analysis, design, and measurement of dynamic parameters, are related efforts involving a review of responses obtained during measured earthquake response and investigations into appropriate methods for backfitting or upgrading older nuclear power plants to meet new seismic criteria.The third approach was to obtain the opinions and recommendations of technically knowledgeable individuals in the US ‘nuclear industry’; the survey results are shown in the Appendix.     

Nonlinear analysis techniques of block masonry walls in nuclear power plants

Concrete masonry walls have been used extensively in nuclear power plants as non-load bearing partitions serving as pipe supports, fire walls, radiation shielding barriers, and similar heavy construction separations. When subjected to earthquake loads, these walls should maintain their structural integrity. However, some of the walls do not meet design requirements based on working stress allowables. Consequently, utilities have used non-linear analysis techniques, such as the arching theory and the energy balance technique, to qualify such walls. This paper presents a critical review of the applicability of non-linear analysis techniques for both unreinforced and reinforced block masonry walls under seismic loading. These techniques are critically assessed in light of the performance of walls from limited available test data. It is concluded that additional test data are needed to justify the use of nonlinear analysis techniques to qualify block walls in nuclear power plants.     

Seismic proof test of a reinforced concrete containment vessel (RCCV): Part 1: Test model and pressure test

In Japan, the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC), sponsored by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), has been conducting a series of seismic reliability proving tests using full-scale or close to full-scale models to simulate actual important equipment that is critical for seismic safety of nuclear power plants. The tests are intended to validate the seismic design and reliability with a sufficient margin even under destructive earthquakes. A series of tests was carried out on a reinforced concrete containment vessel (RCCV) for advanced boiling water reactor (ABWR) from 1992 to 1999. A large-scale high-performance shaking table at Tadotsu Engineering Laboratory, the largest in the world, was used for this test. Part 1 reports the test model and the results of pressure and leak tests. Part 2 describes test procedures, input waves and the results of verification tests such as changes of stiffness, characteristic frequency and damping ratio, the failure of the model and the load deflection. Part 3 shows the seismic safety margin that was evaluated from the energy input during the failure test to a design basis earthquake. Part 4 reports simulation analysis results by a stick model with lumped masses.