水电可持续性评估工具简析

水电可持续性评估工具旨在对水电工程或流域水电开发的可持续性进行量化评估,以指导其未来的开发与管理.以国际水电协会与湄公河委员会分别推出的《水电可持续性评估规范》与“水电可持续性快速评估工具”为研究对象,对两者的评估范围、评估主题与准则、评估形式等进行比较分析,借此结合我国水电特点与政策法规,提出建立符合我国国情的水电可持续性评估工具的基本原则,为评估工具的进一步开发提供参考.     

Topological Robustness and Vulnerability Assessment of Water Distribution Networks

The reliability of a water distribution network (WDN) is a function of several time-invariant and time-dependent factors affecting its components and connectivity, most important of which have been shown to be the network’s topology, its operating pressure, the type of key components (such as the diameter, length, material and age of water pipes) and the network’s historical performance (such as the number of previously observed failures in the network). In terms of network topology, this attribute even though generally thought as time-invariant it actually is time-dependent, as the paths in a water distribution network change over time based on the hydraulics in the network (water demand and water pressure/flow alter the way water flows in the piping network). The work described herein examines the time-dependent nature of a WDN topology and by means of a betweenness centrality index (BC) method demonstrates the effect of topology on the network’s vulnerability / reliability. The importance of the betweenness centrality index is demonstrated by use of a case-study water distribution network operated under both normal and abnormal conditions. The proposed method is also coupled with spatial mapping to indicate areas of concern in the network, and with a decision support system to assist in prioritizing actions to improve on the network’s robustness and resilience.     

黄河上游水资源脆弱性评价研究

以地级行政区为评价单元,建立评价指标体系,采用熵权法计算指标权重,对黄河上游地级行政区进行了水资源脆弱性评价。结果表明,黄河上游地区水资源脆弱性呈明显的空间分异,不脆弱地区主要为半湿润区,极脆弱地区主要为半干旱区、干旱区;干旱半干旱的自然气候条件是研究区水资源脆弱性的主要因素,随着水资源脆弱性的提高,反映水资源开发利用程度的供需比迅速成为主导影响因素;水资源脆弱性评价结果相近的地区,影响因素有可能不同。根据评价结果,提出了提高水资源利用效率、严格控制水资源开发利用量、积极开发新水源和控制污染排放等适应性对策。     

Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

This paper provides an overview of the 'standard' methodology developed for the United States Country Studies Program on the Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Clim ate Change. The methodology is described in more detail in accompanying articles in this issue. A standard methodology was developed for two reasons. First, for countries with little or no experience in hydrologic and water resources modelling, it provided a simple, yet appropriate set of modelling tools that could be quickly learned and applied with a limited data set. Second, it provided a consistent methodology for synthesizing results for regional and global assessments as well as cross-country and cross-regional comparisons.     

海河流域水资源脆弱性及其评价

水资源脆弱性是评价水资源系统对自然条件变动或人类开发利用影响承载能力的重要指标,其评价对于水资源保护工作非常重要。从自然因素、人为因素、综合因素三方面给出13个指标,利用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,综合相关研究及经验确定各指标的标准值,综合进行区域水资源脆弱性评价。以海河流域为例开展了实例研究,海河流域现状的水资源脆弱度为59.7,属于中度脆弱区;在未来气候变化条件下,经过人工水资源调控措施,海河流域2020年、2030年水资源脆弱度分别为58.64、58.63,证明水资源调控措施将会改善海河流域水资源条件。该方法对流域级水资源系统的脆弱性评价有重要意义。     

水资源系统脆弱性的评价方法及其应用

采用模糊模式识别法对全国水资源系统脆弱性进行评价,同时采用集对分析法和投影寻踪法与其进行对比,验证模糊模式识别法评价结果的准确性和合理性,系统评价现状条件下全国水资源系统的脆弱性。结果表明:全国水资源受到地理位置、生态环境、气候变化、社会发展以及一系列不合理开发措施的影响,出现不同程度的脆弱性,其中海河区和黄河区脆弱性最为严重,应引起高度重视。模糊模式识别法与集对分析法和投影寻踪法的评价结果基本一致,证明了模糊模式识别法评价指标权重确定的合理性和评价结果的可靠性,其评价结果更符合我国水资源现状特征,更能引起人们对水资源脆弱性的重视。     

International Initiatives for Water Policy Assessment: A Review

The recent international agreement to implement principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) as a means to overcome the current world water crisis has brought about the need to measure countries’ progress towards a new way of managing water. Several governmental and nongovernmental international organizations have taken up this challenge using different methods. This paper analyzes the methodological approaches currently applied to comparative water policy assessment, points out advantages and drawbacks of the different types of initiatives, and looks at where this relatively young field of research is heading. The technical and topical constraints of existing numerical indicators, the lack of consolidated qualitative assessments and the difficulty to measure real water policy implementation are among the main challenges to be addressed in the near future in the context of water policy assessment.     

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources Systems in the Eastern Nile Basin

Planning effective joint development programs in shared river basins is thought to become better when such programs are preceded by integrated studies. This paper aims to provide such a study through a situation analysis with regard to the vulnerability of water resources systems in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB). The focus was on using internationally recognized indicators and indices that can provide an insight about the situation in the region in a concise and illustrative fashion. A framework for assessing vulnerability of water systems was outlined and applied to the region. Based on a careful survey, a list of 31 indicators used for vulnerability assessment were identified and categorized to separate hydro-physical indicators from other indicators of socio-economic or political nature. The identified indicators were evaluated for the three ENB countries and illustrated in radar diagrams. Interpretations were drawn describing the vulnerability situation in each country. The main findings are: (1) vulnerability of water resources is highest in Sudan, followed by Ethiopia and then Egypt; (2) while vulnerability in Egypt stems mainly from hydro-physical factors; in Sudan and Ethiopia it is directly related to poverty and underdevelopment; (3) Higher stresses on available water resources in Egypt are due to increases in total withdrawals; while in Sudan and Ethiopia it is mainly due to water mal-distribution and quality deterioration; (4) governance factors in the three countries hinder the proper management of the available water resources.     

A Review of Modelling Tools for Implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive in Handling Diffuse Water Pollution

A numerical catchment-scale model capable of simulating diffuse water pollution is necessary in sustainable environmental management for better implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive. This paper provides critical reviews of most popular and free models for diffuse water modelling, with detailed sources and application potential. Based upon these reviews, further work of selecting and testing the HSPF model was carried out, with a case study in the Upper Bann Catchment, Northern Ireland. The calibrated and validated HSPF model can well represent the characteristics of surface water quantity and quality. Climate change scenario evaluation in 5 years showed that when the annual mean temperature increase 3°C the mean yearly total runoff volume will decrease by 11.1% and the mean daily river flow 11.4%. If 20% crop and pasture land is converted into forest land in the study area, the mean river concentration of nitrate, nitrite, NH₄ and PO₄ in 5 years will decrease by 19.4%, 33.3%, 31.3% and 31.3% respectively. When applying filter strip method in 80% crop and pasture land in the area, the reduction of the mean concentration of nitrate, nitrite, NH₄ and PO₄ in 5 years will be 15.3%, 33.3%, 31.3%, and 5.6% respectively. This study shows that HSPF is a suitable model in handling diffuse source water pollution, which can be introduced into the Programme of Measures in the River Basin Management Plans for better implementation of the EU WFD.     

Groundwater Resources in Lebanon: A Vulnerability Assessment

This paper presents a regional groundwater vulnerability assessment for Lebanon using the DRASTIC model coupled with a GIS‐based framework to prioritize protection efforts, whereby the most vulnerable areas to groundwater are targeted first, thus optimizing the allocation of financial and human resources. The objective of the study is to initiate a systematic approach to better manage and protect the country's groundwater resources.     

Regional Water Balance and Economic Assessment as Tools for Water Management in Coastal Lebanon

The Lebanese coast is highly subject to seawater intrusion and groundwater deterioration. The study is carried out in Byblos district (Jbeil Caza) 35 km north of Beirut. It aims to investigate the seawater intrusion, to determine the regional water balance of the region and finally to estimate the economic value of that water for agricultural use. The monitoring of the aquifer was achieved through samples from different wells chosen randomly. As for the regional water balance, it was determined with use of a GIS model. The economic evaluation was carried out, using the contingent valuation method to estimate the willingness to pay of farmers to contribute to the improvement of groundwater quality; two alternative scenarios were proposed and compared with the current situation. The annual regional water balance is positive, which means that the region is rich in water. The monitoring results show that the coastal part of the region is slightly contaminated by seawater intrusion due to the excess of pumping from the aquifer. The economic evaluation estimated that farmers would contribute by 102 US$ yr^− 1 for the first proposal and 166.67 US$ yr^− 1 for the second.     

基于系统动力学模型的南渡江流域水资源脆弱性评价

水资源安全影响区域社会经济的健康发展,全球气候变化与人类活动已对流域水资源安全造成巨大压力.建立水资源、水环境及社会经济系统动力学(SD)模型,以层次分析法构建水资源脆弱性评价指标体系与评价标准,设置常规、技术革新型、经济优先型以及综合发展4种模式,采用综合指数加权法对2010-2035年南渡江流域水资源脆弱性进行评价...     

中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性评价

以中国东部季风区的八大流域为例,从水资源供需安全的角度,对2000年水资源状况和未来气候变化情景下的水资源脆弱性进行了评价。结果表明:海河流域是中国水资源的严重脆弱区,黄河和淮河均处于高度脆弱状态,辽河流域、松花江流域、长江流域、东南诸河和珠江流域绝大部分地区处于中度脆弱状态;未来气候变化使得中国东部季风区八大流域的水资源脆弱性均明显加重,黄淮海流域均上升到严重脆弱状态,对气候变化极度敏感,必须采取相应措施来积极应对气候变化对流域水资源的不利影响。     

基于改进BP神经网络模型的云南文山州水资源脆弱性综合评价

利用层次分析法构建符合丰水地区水资源脆弱性评价的指标体系和等级标准,分别构建基于单、双隐层BP神经网络技术的区域水资源脆弱性综合评价模型,并采用内插法构造网络训练样本,将水资源脆弱性分级评价标准值作为“评价”样本,对云南文山州区域水资源脆弱性进行评价分析。结果表明：①单、双隐层BP神经网络模型对区域水资源脆弱性综合评价结果基本相同,说明研究建立的区域水资源脆弱性评价模型和评价方法均是合理可行的,与单隐层网络相比,双隐层网络泛化能力强,预测精度高,但训练时间较长;②文山州各评价区域不同规划水平年水资源脆弱性评价等级为Ⅲ-Ⅴ级,即处于中度脆弱与不脆弱之间,客观反映了该州水资源脆弱性状况,符合区域实际情况。评价结果可以作为研究和评价区域水资源脆弱性的参考依据。     

调水工程系统风险评价体系研究

根据调水工程事故的特点和结构系统受损害的严重程度,以Pate—Cornell系统风险计算公式为基础,在调水工程结构系统的模糊失效概率的计算和调水工程事故后果模糊综合评判的基础上,系统地提出了调水工程结构系统的风险评估体系。     

A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China

Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system.     

变化环境下2000—2015年贵阳市水资源脆弱性评价

为了客观评价贵阳市水资源脆弱性,结合相关利益机构及专家的建议,从暴露性、敏感性和适应能力3个方面入手,构建水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,在GIS技术支持下,利用层次分析法(AHP)对2000—2015年贵阳市水资源脆弱性进行评价。结果表明:贵阳市水资源脆弱性空间差异比较显著,水资源脆弱性增强和变弱并存,整体表现出由“中南部高且周边低”到“北弱南强”之态势;云岩区、南明区、白云区、乌当区、观山湖区和花溪区6个区水资源脆弱性增强明显,其中增强最为显著的是观山湖区、花溪区和乌当区,清镇市、修文县、息烽县和开阳县4个县(市)则以脆弱性减弱为主。研究成果可为贵阳市社会经济持续健康发展以及水资源合理利用提供参考依据。     

水文现代化评价指标体系研究

水文现代化评价指标体系的基本原则是:科学性和客观性,通用性和可比性,综合性和可操作性,动态性和静态性,导向性.根据水文现代化的特点,提出了由五大类一级指标和26项二级单项指标组成的定量评价指标体系以及综合评价模型.     

Methods of Assessment of Water Losses in Water Supply Systems: a Review

This paper reviews Water Loss Assessment methods in water supply systems. There’re three main methods: Minimum Night Flow (MNF) analysis, Bursts And Background Estimates (BABE), and Top-Down Water Balance. MNF analysis provides actual measurements whose accuracy can be evaluated. It requires intensive field work, though. The limitation of MNF application is the sensitivity of two parameters; average pressure which is rarely accurate, and estimation of the night consumption. Assessing real losses with the factors generated by the BABE model should not be conducted unless there is no other option due to its excessive assumptions. Instead, the method should be a supplementary tool to break down the volume of real losses into its sub-components. The Top-Down Water Balance is neither pressure-dependent nor extensive-field-work method. However, its assumptions of apparent losses aren’t appropriate for all utilities. The lack of an objective methodology for estimating unauthorized consumption is a major limitation, and research on its estimation is demanding.     

Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment and Feasibility Mapping Under Reclaimed Water Irrigation by a Modified DRASTIC Model

Increasing water shortages promote reclaimed water irrigation (RWI), which potentially causes additional contaminants in groundwater. The DRASTIC model has become an important tool to assess specific groundwater vulnerability. In this study, five parameters of the model were kept to calculated intrinsic vulnerability index (IVI). Aquifer media rating is calculated using the weighted average of ratings for all mediums instead of using the major medium rating, and the rating of the impact of vadose zone is adjusted for the clayey soils on the basis of their thickness. Subsequently, a single parameter sensitivity analysis is used to compute the effective weights of those five parameters. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient between IVI and Nemerow’s synthetical pollution Index (NI) of groundwater quality is significantly improved from 0.185 to 0.775 after four steps of revision. The RWI factor, R_rr, is introduced to assess specific vulnerability index (SVI) under RWI. The SVI decreases from east to west with the increases in depth to water, clayey soil thickness, and other factors. To manage contamination risk, the study area is divided into preferential zones, feasible zones and unfeasible zones for RWI planning and operation with suggested engineering measures.