可变勾股模糊VIKOR水资源系统韧性评价调控模型及应用

水资源系统韧性的评价与调控是缓解水资源危机,规避水资源风险的重要途径之一.结合水资源系统韧性的内涵,分析水资源系统面临压力的多元性、复合性与吸收扰动的能力,从抵抗性、恢复性和适应性三个方面构建了韧性评价指标体系;针对勾股模糊VIKOR方法中决策者在相邻模糊语言变量之间的主观犹豫性,从韧性评价指标的客观数据出发,利用可变...     

The influence of climate variations on an irrigation water resources system performance strategy

The influence of climate change on the performance strategy of an irrigation water resources system (WRS) containing a reservoir cascade is discussed as a decision-making problem under uncertainty. There are: (1) a set of climate change scenarios and (2) a set of river runoff sequences and a set of irrigation demand sequences with various statistical characteristics (sets (2) correspond to every scenario (1)). The function of transfer from the scenarios to the sequences is defined as certain subjective probabilities. The probabilities reflect the degree of the expert confidence in the plausibility of hydrology and moistening hypothesis. There is an index showing the degree of departure of WRS performance from the normal and from the worst values. The proposed technique allows us to (a) generate hydrology and water demand scenarios; (b) calculate the subjective probabilities; (c) compute the irrigation rates as a function of precipitation, radiation balance, etc., and then to compute of irrigation demand schedules; (d) to simulate the WRS. The algorithms of water resources distribution between the users and of WRS operation with stochastic water demands were implemented in a simulation model. The Terek river basin (North Caucasus, Russia) was taken for sample computations.     

基于改进模糊物元模型的区域农业水资源系统恢复力评价

区域农业水资源是农业可持续发展的基础 ,各种生态环境问题的发生致使农业水资源系统退化特征日益明显 ,识别区域农业水资源系统恢复力对于维持农业大系统稳定发展具有重要意义.以黑龙江省农垦红兴隆管理局为研究对象 ,在建立农业水资源系统恢复力评价指标初选集的基础上 ,选取主成分-相关分析法筛选评价指标 ,构建评价指标体系 ,采用指标相关性的指标权重法计算指标权重 ,运用改进模糊物元模型评价农业水资源系统恢复力.文中研究成果为维持农业水资源系统良性运行、保障区域水安全与粮食安全提供了科学依据.     

山西省水资源系统恢复力定量评价研究

在总结前人对其它领域恢复力研究的基础上,分析提出了水资源系统恢复力的概念;从水资源系统恢复力的影响因素的角度出发,建立了水资源系统恢复力定量评价的指标体系;采用均方差法计算各指标权重,运用综合评价方法对研究区水资源系统的恢复力进行评价,计算出各地水资源系统的恢复度。实例对山西省各地市2004年水资源系统恢复力进行了评价,并对结果的合理性进行了分析。评价结果显示山西省水资源系统的恢复力普遍偏低,水资源系统恢复力呈现出由东向西,由南向北递减的空间变化规律,与山西省降水的空间分布基本一致。     

基于遥感的新疆水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型研究框架

水资源适应性利用是一种适应环境变化且保障水系统良性循环的水资源利用方式,研究面向环境变化的水资源适应性利用对保障地区水安全,实现人水和谐具有重要意义。将遥感技术与和谐论理论方法相结合,建立了新疆水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型的研究框架,该模型是以人水和谐度最大为目标,以水资源-经济社会-生态环境多维临界阈值及互馈关系方程、水循环方程等边界条件为约束的面向水资源适应性利用的多维临界和谐配置-调控模型。为了实现该模型的应用,需开展基于遥感的新疆水资源-经济社会-生态环境互馈关系及演变规律、水资源适应性变化机理与适应性利用原理、水资源适应性利用理论应用规则及量化方法、基于遥感的新疆水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型、塔里木河流域水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型应用研究的相关工作。围绕上述内容,阐述了实现该模型的3个关键问题及具体的研究方法,包括遥感技术在配置调控模型中的应用;水资源适应性利用规则定量化及如何嵌入模型中;水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型如何构建。研究成果为水资源适应性利用理论方法及应用研究提供参考。     

Planning for Regional Water System Sustainability Through Water Resources Security Assessment Under Uncertainties

A leader-follower relationship in multiple layers of decision makers under uncertainties is a critical challenge associated with water resources security (WRS). To address this problem, a credibility-based chance-constrained hierarchical programming model with WRS assessment is developed for regional water system sustainability planning. This model can deal with the sequential decision-making problem with different goals and preferences, and reflect uncertainties presented as fuzzy sets. The effectiveness of the developed model is demonstrated through a real-world water resources management system in Beijing, China. A leader-follower interactive solution algorithm based on satisfactory degree is utilized to improve computational efficiency. Results show the that: (a) surface water, groundwater, recycled water, and off water would account for 27.01, 27.44, 23.11, and 22.44% of the total water supplies, respectively; (b) the entire pollutant emissions and economic benefits would consequently decrease by 31.53 and 22.88% when the statue changes from quite safe to extremely far from safe; and (c) a high credibility level would correspond to low risks of insufficient water supply and overloaded pollutant emissions, which lowers economic benefits and pollutant emissions. By contrast, a low credibility level would decrease the limitations of constraints, which leads to high economic benefits and pollutant emissions, but system risk would be increased. These findings can aid different decision makers in identifying the desired strategies for regional water resources management under multiple uncertainties, and support the in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among water security, system efficiency, and credibility level.     

The application of the aggregative approach in simulation modeling of water resources systems

This is a discussion about constructing simulation models for complex water resources systems (WRS). They are based on the piecewise linear aggregates theory developed in the U.S.S.R. The method allows us to lay down general principles for the construction of such simulation models and automate water resources calculations. Water resources systems simulation models incorporate balance equations, describe water resources inputs into and outputs from sites and reservoirs, and algorithms for both reservoir control and water distribution at sites. Water reservoir control is based on rule curves. The aggregative approach is especially efficient in constructing such algorithms for coordinated control of reservoirs.     

水资源适应性利用理论及其在治水实践中的应用前景

水系统受气候变化和人类活动的影响,一直在不断地变化,因此水资源的开发利用也应适应这种变化,而不能按照固定的控制阈值或约束条件来进行。当然,也不是被动的、随意的去适应。在对水系统及其与环境变化关系剖析的基础上,分析了水资源适应性利用的原理与模式;基于对环境变化下水资源适应性利用机理的认识,提出水资源适应性利用理论的框架体系,阐述了其基本理念和关键内容;基于对我国现代治水实践的分析,分析了其暗含的水资源适应性利用理论的内容,以及我国治水实践中存在的问题及应用水资源适应性利用理论解决这些问题的可能途径。研究认为,水资源适应性利用理论对水资源合理开发、综合利用、科学管理具有重要的指导作用,为环境变化下水资源利用研究与实践奠定理论基础。     

Water and human livelihood resilience: a regional-to-global outlook

This article addresses the need to profoundly expand the way we think about freshwater. Stressing water’s role as the bloodstream of the biosphere, the article highlights water’s functions in sustaining life on the planet (control, state and moisture feedback functions), the role of water partitioning changes in inducing non-linear change at multiple scales, and humanity’s influence on a social-ecological system’s capacity to adapt and continue to function. It reviews water’s roles during its journey through the upper layers of the land mass, different types of water–ecosystem interactions, and water’s roles in landscape-scale resilience building.     

Unravelling Stakeholder Perceptions to Enable Adaptive Water Governance in Dryland Systems

Adaptive water governance seeks to increase a social-ecological system’s adaptive capacity in the face of uncertainty and change. This is especially important in non-linear dryland systems that are already exposed to water scarcity and increasing degradation. Conservation of water ecosystem services is key for increasing adaptive capacity in drylands, however, how stakeholders perceive water ecosystem services greatly affects how they are managed, as well as the potential for adaptive water governance. This paper focuses on identifying the system’s potential for enabling adaptive water governance by analysing different stakeholder perceptions on water ecosystem services. It takes the Rio del Carmen watershed as a case study, offering important insights for an increasing number of water-scarce regions. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders in the watershed in order to unravel their perceptions and understand the governance context. We found disparities in how stakeholders perceive water ecosystem services have led to water overexploitation and several conflicts over water access. Our results indicate that stakeholder perceptions have a major influence on the system’s adaptability, as they shape the acquisition of water ecosystem services. Divergent stakeholder perceptions act as an important barrier to collaboration. Generating and sharing knowledge could facilitate the development of a common vision, allowing all actors to co-create information about water ecosystem services and the system state, engaging them in a participatory process, suitable for their context, and that will better support adaptive water governance.     

基于ET控制的平原区县域水资源管理研究

受气候变化和人类活动的影响,水循环过程发生改变,单纯基于用水侧考虑已不能完整反映区域的水资源问题,必须从水资源物理成因角度开展用水控制。本文从水资源的自然属性出发,以水循环过程为基础,重点阐述了基于ET控制的水资源管理的基本理论与方法,针对平原区县域的特征,提出了基于ET控制的平原区县域水资源管理模型及计算方法,并以地下水超采典型区—滦南县为例进行了实例应用。模型以县域ET控制为手段,以消减ET实现为目标,从水资源的物理驱动过程入手,考虑了产业发展、种植结构、节水潜力以及地下水超采等县域发展的实际问题,使规划管理方案更贴近县域生产实际,控制超采更具可操作性。     

淮河流域河流水环境可恢复性评价

针对水环境可持续利用中存在的水环境特征识别问题,开展水环境可恢复性研究。基于水环境可恢复性的定义及水环境可恢复性评价指标体系,选取其中12个指标,采用淮河流域2000-2009年10年数据资料,利用主成分分析法（ PCA ）得到影响淮河流域水环境可恢复性的主要成分和各年的综合主成分值随时间变化情况;将水环境系统可恢复性分为弱、一般、强3个等级,利用自组织映射（ SOM）神经网络法对归一化的正向样本数据进行分析,得到各年水环境系统可恢复性的强弱等级情况。结果表明,由PCA法得到的结果与SOM 神经网络法的结果相一致,淮河流域从2000-2009年水环境可恢复性整体上呈现逐年增强的趋势,同时表明PCA和SOM神经网络法对水环境可恢复性评价是可行的。     

Quantifying the Vulnerability of Surface Water Environment in Humid Areas Base on DEA Method

Vulnerability of water environmental is defined as a measure of the degree of water pollution and its susceptibility and resilience under the influence of both human activities and natural causes. Analysis in this study indicates that water environment in a humid and intensive human activity area such as Southern China is more vulnerable to water quality than to water quantity. The vulnerability of water environment is the key element of water security in these regions. This study provided a new approach to quantify the vulnerability of surface water environment in humid areas through a case study in Southern China. Taking the pollution of water environment as an input–output process, the classic Data Envelopment Analysis method (DEA) which has often been used in the management science, was introduced to establish an evaluation model to access the vulnerability of surface water environment. The analysis results for the 7 water resources districts in the Pearl River Basin of China using the SEA method showed that majority of these water resources districts have abundant water resources, greater carrying capacity, and less vulnerable to shortage of water resources and contamination of water environment.     

住宅小区水资源系统优化

通过分析住宅小区水资源系统形式,以经济效益、社会效益、环境效益为目标,通过建立目标函数并进行优化,对住宅小区水资源进行综合配置,使水资源在住宅小区得到良性循环和充分利用,同时用实例论证了实现小区水资源系统最优化的可行性。     

基于CAS范式的水资源系统复杂性分析

分析了复杂性定义与特征,揭示复杂性的主、客体本质。指出水资源系统也具有主、客体本质,复杂性是水资源系统的一个重要特征。结合复杂适应系统对涉及到经济、环境、人文和水资源规划等多方面的水资源系统进行分析研究。将水资源系统看成是由若干个相对独立的有适应性的个体所组成的一个有层次的网络体系,用定量与定性相结合的方式得到系统的演化规律。建立流域级的水资源复杂适应性系统模型对于研究水资源管理和维持生态平衡等都能起到直接的推动作用。     

基于云模型的水利工程运行安全韧性评价

为准确评价水利工程的运行安全水平,将韧性理论引入水利工程安全运行管理,构建了水利工程运行安全韧性评价指标体系,采用序关系法(G1法)获得韧性指标的独立权重,采用决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)法量化韧性指标的关联权重,并利用博弈论确定组合权重,提出了基于云模型的水利工程运行安全韧性评价方法。利用该方法对江都水利枢纽工程2017—2021年的运行安全韧性进行评价,结果表明：江都水利枢纽工程的运行安全韧性逐年提升,并达到高韧性水平;评价结果与实际情况相符,验证了方法的正确性与可靠性。     

Towards Adaptive Integrated Water Resources Management in Southern Africa: The Role of Self-organisation and Multi-scale Feedbacks for Learning and Responsiveness in the Letaba and Crocodile Catchments

South Africa is acclaimed for its water reform and the adoption of integrated water resources management (IWRM) as the framework for managing catchment water resources to achieve equity and sustainability. The proposed process is inherently adaptive, allowing for reflection and learning in complex, uncertain environments such as catchments. A decade on, attention has now turned to implementation. In this paper we present some key findings drawn from a three-year study in six major catchments in the water-stressed north-east of South Africa which examined factors constraining or enabling implementation. Factors critical for the evolution of tenable and appropriate IWRM include a practice-based understanding of policy, the role of leadership and communication, governance, collective action and regulation, and self-organisation and feedbacks. This paper concerns self-organisation, leadership and feedbacks. Their origins, drivers, development and role in building resilience are examined in two of the six catchments: the Letaba and Crocodile catchments. Self-organisation, leadership and feedback loops exist in both but are highly variable in terms of their contribution to IWRM. The underlying factors contributing to their functionality are identified. Despite good efforts to self-organise and functional feedbacks there is evidence of either vulnerability or of limited impact when processes are confined to a local scale, which constrains learning and transformation at a wider scale. In other instances, encouraging evidence is emerging in which leadership, governance and the ability to self-organise are central to effectiveness. We conclude that self-organisation and responsive multi-scale feedback loops are essential for management in catchments understood as complex systems as they provide the basis for learning and response to an evolving context.     

基于水循环的分布式水资源调配模型开发与应用

自以水循环为基础的水资源动态配置模式提出以来,一批基于耦合分布式水文模型的水资源配置模型被先后提出,但其采用的耦合方法往往忽视了经济社会用水过程与天然水文过程之间的动态反馈作用。本文通过改进SWAT模型,并嵌合水资源配置模块,开发了基于水循环的分布式水资源调配模型（Water resources allocation and regulation model based on the SWAT,SWAT-WARM）,从模型结构、耦合方法、配置规则等方面系统描述了模型的双向耦合原理。以唐河流域为例开展模型的构建与应用研究,采用包含河道流量过程、特征频率径流总量、国民经济用水量和水资源开发利用量的多指标校验方法验证模型的性能,在此基础上,分析了不同时空尺度的水资源配置结果以及全流域年度水循环转化情况。分析结果表明,该模型通过分布式水文模拟和水资源配置模拟的动态结合,能够描述“自然-社会”水资源复杂系统的实时互馈过程,可为流域水资源精细化管理提供技术支撑。     

Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems

Out-of-context analysis of water resources systems can result in unsustainable management strategies. To address this problem, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems driving a system??s overall behavior. System dynamics, a method for operationalizing systems thinking, facilitates holistic understanding of water resources systems, and strategic decision making. The approach also facilitates participatory modeling, and analysis of the system??s behavioral trends, essential to sustainable management. The field of water resources has not utilized the full capacity of system dynamics in the thinking phase of integrated water resources studies. We advocate that the thinking phase of modeling applications is critically important, and that system dynamics offers unique qualitative tools that improve understanding of complex problems. Thus, this paper describes the utility of system dynamics for holistic water resources planning and management by illustrating the fundamentals of the approach. Using tangible examples, we provide an overview of Causal Loop and Stock and Flow Diagrams, reference modes of dynamic behavior, and system archetypes to demonstrate the use of these qualitative tools for holistic conceptualization of water resources problems. Finally, we present a summary of the potential benefits as well as caveats of qualitative system dynamics for water resources decision making.     

Institutional Evolution in Lake Okeechobee Management in Florida: Characteristics,Impacts, and Limitations

The management of Lake Okeechobee in Florida has undergone significant changes in the last decade. Socio-political, environmental and demographic factors have driven changes in the environmental and water policy, which in turn have led to wide-ranging institutional changes and a shift toward multiobjective planning and implementation in the Lake management. This article describes the changes in the philosophy and practice of water resources management in South Florida hydrologic system, of which Lake Okeechobee is a crucial component. The impacts of the changes on management goals and decision processes are illustrated through a case study of the use of climate information in Lake management. The article concludes with a brief examination of the implications of the institutional changes, including greater public participation, for the long-term sustainability of the social-ecological system in South Florida.