Fuzzy TOPSIS Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Applied to Karun Reservoirs System

Water resource systems, with an abundance of project purposes and resource values, are subject to conflicting policy, planning, and management decisions. Multi-criteria decision making methods (MCDM) provide a framework to help water managers identify critical issues, attach relative priorities to those issues, select best compromise alternatives, and facilitate communication to gain general acceptance. This paper addresses a method that incorporates several system factors/components within a general framework for providing a holistic analysis of the problems and comprehensive evaluation of the related mitigation/adaptation measures and policy responses. The method accounts for uncertainties in both the quantification and importance of objectives in the ranking process. The proposed fuzzy multi-criteria decision making process uses the well known Technique for Order Preference by Similarity of Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method in both deterministic and uncertain environments. The performance of the proposed approach to a real water resource management problem in Iran is illustrated. Results show that the model may be used in a large-scale multi-level assessment process. Ranks of the alternatives are presented using deterministic and fuzzy based models.     

A New Integrated MADM Technique Combined with ANP,FTOPSIS and Fuzzy Max-Min Set Method for Evaluating Water Transfer Projects

In sustainable water resources management, it is essential to rank inter-basin water transfer projects. This task is difficult due to many different conflict criteria, complex relations among criteria and various judgments of decision makers. In this paper, an integrated multiple attribute group decision making method consists of ANP (Analytical Network Process), fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy max-min set methods is proposed for evaluating water transfer projects. A set of over 60 criteria in social, environmental and economic sectors are used for ranking four water transfer projects in Karun River based on three decision maker judgments. A key novelty of the proposed methodology is its ability to model both complex relations among different criteria in water management and the influence of decision maker judgments’ weights on the final ranking in group decision making problem. The procedure starts by obtaining the priority of water transfer projects and the weight of each decision maker judgments by employing ANP and fuzzy TOPSIS, respectively. These weights are used as inputs in the fuzzy max-min set method. Then the effects of decision maker weights on the final ranking are determined in fuzzy environment. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of decision makers’ weights has been conducted. The results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for group decision making problems by considering different criteria and decision makers’ weights.     

Comparison of Compensatory and non-Compensatory Multi Criteria Decision Making Models in Water Resources Strategic Management

Growing water demands as well as inconsistency between water demand and water supply pose new challenges for water resources managers in arid regions. This study examines the strategies to tackle water shortage for a sustainable development in Shahrood, Iran. A contentious plan has been proposed to transfer water from the Caspian Sea in north of Iran to this region. Ensuring sustainable development, however, necessitates a strategic planning for water resources. The study develops all viable strategies for the region using Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis. Due to inability of the SWOT model to rank the alternatives, the developed strategies are ranked using Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) models based on specified sustainable development criteria. The ranking is implemented using the compensatory models of Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the non-compensatory model of ELimination and Choice Translating REality (ELECTRE III). The results of all MCDM models introduce water transfer as the worst strategy for the region. Because of the uncertainty in the relative importance of specified criteria, sensitivity analysis is done for MCDM models by altering the criteria weights. The results show that the ELECTRE III method has lower sensitivity than the SAW and AHP methods to changes in the weights. Also, the compensatory methods exhibits a high dependency to the weights of some dominant criteria. Therefore, this research reveals that the rankings obtained from the ELECTRE III method are more reliable for decision makers to ensure a sustainable development in the region.     

Evaluating the Relative Power of Water Users in Inter-Basin Water Transfer Systems

One of the challenging issues in designing and operation of inter-basin water transfer systems is quantifying the relative power of water users. In this paper, a comprehensive set of criteria including regional gross income, water efficiency, presence of alternative water resources, self-sufficiency, existence of agricultural and industrial infrastructures, receiving political support of the government and parliament, and preference-based power is proposed to determine the power of water users in a quantitative way. Then, some well-known Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods, namely Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Analytical Network Process (ANP), Evidential Reasoning (ER), Method for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE II), are utilized to evaluate the power of water users in inter-basin water allocation systems. In this paper, the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and Kendall’s coefficient of concordance are applied to compare the ranking outputs resulting from different MCDM methods. At last, the proposed approach is applied to a large-scale case study of water transfer from the Karoon River basin to the Rafsanjan plain in the central part of Iran.     

Consideration of Trends in Evaluating Inter-basin Water Transfer Alternatives within a Fuzzy Decision Making Framework

Evaluation of water supply schemes is an essential task for meeting the goals of inter-basin water transfer project system management. In general, water supply operation involves multi-objective and multifactor optimization and decision. In recent years, multicriterion decision making (MCDM) has emerged as an effective methodology due to its ability to combine quantitative and qualitative criteria for selection of the best alternative. This paper presents a new optimization method using fuzzy pattern recognition to appraise the water supply decision schemes in inter-basin diversion systems. The proposed method is capable to incorporate not only the will of the decision-makers but also the future development trend of water resources and water supply demand and makes the optimization results more reasonable and applicable. One case study for the Xi-River-to -Tanghe Reservoir Water Transfer Project System in China is presented to demonstrate the application of this method.     

Multi-criteria Decision Analysis: A Strategic Planning Tool for Water Loss Management

Water utilities particularly in the developing countries continue to operate with considerable inefficiencies in terms of water and revenue losses. With increasing water demand and scarcity, utilities require effective strategies for optimum use of available water resources. Diverse water loss reduction options exist. Deciding on which option to choose amidst conflicting multiple criteria and different interests of stakeholders is a challenging task. In this paper, an integrated multi-criteria decision-aiding framework for strategic planning of water loss management is presented. The PROMETHEE II method was applied within the framework in prioritizing water loss reduction options for Kampala city. A strategic plan that combines selective mains and service lines replacement and pressure management as priorities is the best compromise based on preferences of the decision makers and seven evaluation criteria characterized by financial-economic, environmental, public health, technical and social impacts. The results show that the most preferred options are those that enhance water supply reliability, public health and water conservation measures. This study demonstrates how decision theory coupled with operational research techniques could be applied in practice to solve complex water management and planning problems.     

Identification of Spatial Ranking of Hydrological Vulnerability Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques: Case Study of Korea

Potential flood damage (PFD), potential streamflow depletion (PSD), potential water quality deterioration (PWQD), and watershed evaluation index (WEI) have been developed to spatially quantify the hydrological vulnerability using multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. All criteria are selected on the basis of a sustainability evaluation concept (pressure-state-response model), and their weights are estimated by an Analytic Hierarchy Process, which is also a type of MCDM technique. The MCDM techniques used for the evaluation are composite programming, compromise programming, ELECTRE II, Regime method, and Evamix method; these techniques can be classified according to data availability and objectives (prefeasibility and feasibility). Furthermore, the WEI is improved to reflect the preferences of the residents with regard to management objectives through weights (of PFD, PSD, and PWQD) obtained from questionaires of residents. Finally, this study derives a procedure to identify the spatial investment prioritization using four indices.     

A Framework for Ground Water Management Based on Bayesian Network and MCDM Techniques

Groundwater resources are steadily subjected to increasing water demands. The aquifers are considered as the most accessible source of fresh water. In recent years, they have been faced with severe water withdrawal in arid and semi-arid countries like Iran and thus some aquifers was considered as forbidden aquifers that it means the water withdrawal from these aquifers is unauthorized. Given a critical situation, groundwater resources management in the form of tools such as monitoring the level of the aquifers and developing the restoring scenarios is essential. Therefore, for this purpose, a framework has been developed based on prediction of groundwater level using Bayesian Networks (BNs) model. Furthermore, Multi Criteria Decision Making methods (MCDM) techniques proposed and employed for ranking of proposed groundwater management scenarios. This framework was evaluated for restoring the Birjand aquifer in Iran in different hydrological conditions. A probabilistic Dynamic BN was proposed for groundwater level prediction under uncertainties. After analyzing the obtained results, the applicable short term scenarios for groundwater management as well as appropriate economic, social and technical criteria were defined for decision making procedure. Then, using elicitation of decision makers’ opinions on the relative importance and performance of criteria, SAW, TOPSIS and PROMETHEE-II techniques were applied to rank the scenarios and the obtained results were aggregated by Borda method for final ranking of the scenarios. Lastly, the final results demonstrates the capability of the proposed framework for groundwater resources planning and management which can be employed for reducing the risk of aquifer level declining.     

Spatio-Temporal Multi-Criteria Optimization of Reservoir Water Quality Monitoring Network Using Value of Information and Transinformation Entropy

Identifying optimal Water Quality Monitoring Stations (WQMS) with high values of information on the entire reservoir status, instead of all potential WQMS would significantly reduce the monitoring network expenditure while providing adequate spatial coverage. This study presented a new methodology for spatio-temporal multi-criteria optimization of reservoir WQMS based on Value of Information (VOI), Transinformation Entropy (TE), Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), and IRanian Water Quality Index (IRWQI). Although, all mentioned methods and concepts are well-known and have been used in water resources management, but their integration into a specific application for spatio-temporal multi-criteria optimization of reservoir WQMS is definitely an innovation and a contribution to improvement of WQMS design. More specifically, maximizing VOI as a decision-makers’ design criteria for optimization of WQMS, and considering spatial and temporal variations of water quality at different reservoir depths are new innovations in this research. The multi-objective optimization model was based on three objectives: 1) minimizing costs; 2) maximizing VOI; and 3) minimizing TE (redundant information). Considering these objectives, the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization method was used to find Pareto-optimal solutions. The most preferable solution was then determined using PROMETHEE multi-criteria decision making method. The proposed methodology was applied to Karkheh Reservoir with more than 5 billion cubic meter capacity and 60 km length that is one of the largest reservoirs in Southwestern Iran, however, the proposed approach has the ability to be generalized for any generic reservoir. Considering equal weights for criteria, PROMETHEE method resulted in 6 optimized WQMS out of 60 potential ones and a period of 25 days for optimal sampling interval. The optimized monitoring stations were mainly located at deep parts where most water quality variations are expected to occur. To show sensitivity of the model to different weights, 4 scenarios with various relative weights were evaluated in the PROMETHEE method. Results indicated that by increasing the weight of the second criterion (maximizing VOI), the number of optimized WQMS increased and the sampling interval decreased.     

A Compromise Solution in Water Resources Planning

The paper emphasizes compromise based on cooperativeness as a solution of a decision problem in water resources planning. A decision making process committed to consensus utilizing compromise solution as a consensus proposal is presented. The presented methodology is utilized to study the development of a reservoir system for the storage of surface flows of the Mlava River and its tributaries for regional water supply. The method VIKOR is applied to determine compromise solution of a problem with noncommensurable and conflicting criteria including economic, environmental, social, and cultural features. The obtained compromise provides a maximum group utility of the “majority” and a minimum individual regret of the “opponent”.     

A Negotiation-Based Multi-Objective, Multi-Party Decision-Making Model for Inter-Basin Water Transfer Scheme Optimization

The planning and management decisions often involve multiple objectives and multiple parties with conflicting interests due to the complexity of inter-basin water transfer systems. In this paper, the objectives, the groups involved and the corresponding conflicting interests that characterize water transfer decisions are analyzed. A multi-party, multi-objective decision/bargaining model based on the ??satisfaction principle?? is developed for inter-basin water transfer system decision-making. In order to obtain an ideal multi-party decision, bargaining is first broken down into two stages, and then decision alternatives are chosen using fuzzy pattern recognition. This model is simple, and it is more adaptable for solving practical multi-objective and multi-party decision problems. Finally, an inter-basin water transfer scheme optimization example is demonstrated by using the developed model.     

A Compromise Ratio Method with an Application to Water Resources Management: An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set

Water resources management can be regarded as an iterative process of general decision making considering the applications and modifications of waters and related lands within a geographic region. This process helps decision makers to balance their diverse requirements and applications of water as an environmental resource, and to recognize how their activities can have impacts on the long-term sustainability. This paper introduces a new compromise ratio method based on Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy sets under multiple criteria in real-life situations. Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging (AIFWA) operator is applied to aggregate individual judgments of the decision makers to rate the relative importance of the selected criteria and potential alternatives. Then a new Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy ranking index is proposed to analyze the potential alternatives. Finally, the performance of the proposed fuzzy decision-making method is illustrated to a real water resources management problem from the recent literature. Computational results demonstrate that the presented method can be utilized in a large-scale multi-level assessment process to assist the decision makers the optimal solution among the potential alternatives with multiple conflicting and compromising criteria.     

Application of Multi-Criterion Decision Making Analysis to Integrated Water Resources Management

In the context of integrated water resources management (IWRM), account should be taken of a wide range of factors including economic, social and environmental issues. Multi-criterion decision making (MCDM) approaches are applied to the case study in this paper to integrate different objectives into the planning, management and decision making process. A variety of criteria in terms of economic, social and environmental dimensions are identified and formulated for the purpose of MCDM analysis. A set of different management scenarios is proposed for the desired goals. They include reductions in irrigated areas, improved irrigation efficiencies, increased system loss for groundwater irrigation and changes in cropping pattern. An integrated water resources optimisation model (IWRO) is used to optimise surface and groundwater allocation, through which the identified criteria can be enumerated. Compromise programming (CP), which results in a compromise solution located as close as possible to an ideal solution, is adopted to carry out the MCDM analysis for the case study. The sensitivity of different sets of weights and different values of parameters related to CP is investigated. Results indicate that compromise programming is able to lead to satisfactory solutions. Performance of different alternatives is evaluated based on the compromise programming analysis, and potential decisional alternatives are proposed for further investigation.     

Multicriterion Analysis for Sustainable Water Resources Planning: A Case Study in Spain

The present article demonstrates the implementation of Multicriterion Decision Making (MCDM) analysis for a case study of Flumen Monegros irrigation area in the Huesca province of Spain. The criteria used to rank alternativesconsist of (1) economic factors including initial cost ofirrigation system, maintenance cost, profitability of crops,extent of European subsidies; (2) environmental factors whichcomprise water volume, water quality after irrigation, efficiency of the use of water, resistance to floods or droughts; (3) Social factors including employment of rurallabour, area non-cultivated. Alternative policies areformulated by mixing factors such as irrigation system, waterpricing, water allocation, crop distribution, fertiliser use,subsidies received. Multicriterion Sorting Technique (MCST)ELECTRE-TRI is employed to reduce the large size payoff matrixto predefined categories for further usage of MCDM techniques.Five MCDM techniques, namely, PROMETHEE-2, EXPROM-2, ELECTRE-3, ELECTRE-4, and Compromise Programming (CP) are employed torank the alternatives. Spearman rank correlation coefficientis employed to assess the correlation coefficient between theranking patterns obtained by the above MCDM techniques.Additive ranking principle is used for group decision makinganalysis. Results indicate that five MCDM techniques choosethe same alternative strategy as the preferred one.     

Selecting Agricultural Best Management Practices for Water Conservation and Quality Improvements Using Atanassov’s Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

Improper agricultural practices can affect ground water through leaching, surface water through runoff, algae infestations, deforestation, and air quality through burning operations and ammonia emissions. These effects may be mitigated through the institution of best management practices. The utility of best management practices (BMPs) is recognized and being actively promoted by agricultural agencies; however, identifying a set of mandatory BMPs is inappropriate given variations between climactic, demographic and geographic regions as well as differences in farming practices. In this study, a multi-criteria decision making model based on Attanassov’s Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set (A-IFS) theory is introduced and its utility to rank agricultural best management practices is illustrated using a case-study from South Texas. Implementation of the A-IFS MCDM method to the South Texas region resulted in “irrigation scheduling” being ranked as the most preferred alternative, while “brush control/management” was the least preferred. The A-IFS MCDM approach was particularly suitable for prioritizing and ranking agricultural best management practices because decision makers often tend to have both likes and dislikes with regards to specific BMPs and for a given evaluation attribute. Not only does the A-IFS MCDM method provide a single composite score to rank the BMP alternatives, but the output of the A-IFS MCDM method also includes upper and lower bounds that help identify the uncertainties in the decision making process.     

Integrated Use of a Continuous Simulation Model and Multi-Attribute Decision-Making for Ranking Urban Watershed Management Alternatives

The objective of this paper is to introduce a continuous simulation-based screening procedure for ranking urban watershed management alternatives using multi-attribute decision making (MADM). The procedure integrates continuous urban runoff simulation results from the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) with the use of an alternative evaluation index (AEI) and MADM techniques, following the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) approach. The analytic hierarchy process estimates the weights of the criteria, and SWMM results are used to quantify the effects of the management alternatives on water quantity and quality metrics. In addition, the tendency of AEI to reflect resident preferences toward management objectives is incorporated to include stakeholder participation in the decision-making process. This systematic decision support process is demonstrated for a Korean urban watershed. According to the AEI, seven alternatives were divided into three groups: poor (0∼0.3), acceptable (0.3∼0.6), and good (0.6∼1). The use of multiple MADM techniques provided a consistency check. The demonstration illustrates the ability of the continuous simulation-based MADM approach to provide decision makers with a ranking of suitable urban watershed management alternatives which incorporate stakeholder feedback.     

Water Quality Assessment Based on Combined Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method with Index Method

This work presents combined approach to water quality assessment based on both Water Quality Indices (WQI) and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods. Using weights from the official WQI calculation algorithm, the model for MCDM was formed and presented on the case of the Danube River water quality in Serbia. By applying PROMETHEE method, locations of potential environmental risk were determined and ranked according to the quality of water. Using its visual modeling option GAIA, the most dominant variables that affect the quality of water at certain locations were identified as polluting parameters (suspended matter, BOD-5, total N, NH4-N and PO4-P). Concentrations of identified pollutants were compared with limits of both EU and national recommendations so the actual water quality of the river was determined. The results showed that although WQI analysis indicated good and very good water quality, extension with MCDM methods revealed that there is a significant excess in values of PO4-P and E.coli at almost every location on the course of the river, as well as in values of total N and NH4-N. Proposed combined approach could serve to engineers and decision makers involved in water quality management in creating more detailed reports on water quality while facilitating the process of decision-making in the choice of selection of particular locations with critical water quality, where appropriate measures for remediation of pollution should be taken.     

Cost–Effectiveness Analysis of Water Management Measures in Two River Basins of Jordan and Lebanon

Chekka Bay area and Amman Zarqa Basin are two complex river basins in northern Lebanon and northern Jordan respectively. Both regions are faced with growing populations, urban development and land-use changes. They also both suffer from water-resource scarcity and contrasted seasons that threaten the perennity of sufficient water supply. Decision makers may have several water-management measures in response to the issue of water deficiency in their regions, but they need simple methods and criteria for ranking the alternatives with respect to their economical efficiency. In this paper, the Cost–Effectiveness Analysis method is used for supporting decisions to optimally combine water management measures at the river basin scale. Hydrologic and socio-economic data are used for assessing the future water balance and determine the sustainable management objectives. Both supply- and demand-side measures are investigated and compared. The analysis is based on two basic metrics to assess cost–effectiveness ratios: the average annualized and the marginal (or incremental) unit cost. The results show that the cost–effectiveness ranking of alternative measures strongly depends on the selected metric. The average annualized unit cost systematically favours large scaled water measures with high costs while the average incremental unit cost facilitates the selection of smaller and costless measures reflecting the time preference for water supply.     

Ranking Irrigation Management Alternatives by Multicriterion Analysis

Selection of the best alternative plan in irrigation development strategies is examined in the multiobjective context. Three conflicting objectives-net benefits, agricultural production and labour employment-are considered. The procedure combines multiobjective optimization, cluster analysis, and multicriterion decision making (MCDM) methods. Five MCDM methods, ELECTRE-2, PROMETHEE-2, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Compromise Programming (CP) and Multicriterion QAnalysis (MCQA-2) are used in the evaluation. Spearman rank correlation test is employed to assess the correlation between them. The methodology resulted in the selection of the best alternative plan when applied to a case study of the Sri Ram Sagar Project, Andhra Pradesh, India.     

Flood Vulnerability Analysis by Fuzzy Spatial Multi Criteria Decision Making

Prioritization the sub-basins available in a basin to flood vulnerability analysis can be discussed in the form of a spatial multi criteria decision making (SMCDM) problem. In this research a fuzzy planning support system based on the spatial analysis using tow multi criteria decision making methods, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and TOPSIS (Technique for order-preference by similarity to ideal solution) is used. AHP method is used to determine the structure of decision making process and to estimate criteria weights and TOPSIS model is used to rank the sub-basins of Tehran urban basin as a study area regarding the flood vulnerable areas. Also in order to perform spatial analysis for decision-making process, a developed toolbox is used within the Geographic Information System (GIS). In this research a model is presented in which some vague concepts such as weight of decision making criteria are expressed in the form of linguistic variables to be converted to triangular fuzzy numbers. Finally, the sensitivity of model was analyzed by changing the weights of decision making criteria and providing of ranking scenarios. The results show the optimum alternatives for mitigation flood vulnerability in the study area.