Virtual Water Trade as a Solution for Water Scarcity in Egypt

Understanding the virtual water trade concept and strategy is important for formulating informed policies for improving water use efficiency at different levels. However, the introduction of virtual water concept as a policy option in Egypt is still in need for extensive investigations, research, and feasibility evaluation. Currently, Egypt’s net virtual water import as a percentage of water resources has mounted to be 23.55%. The main concern, here, is to apply the concept of virtual water as a strategy in a way that meets its interests and objectives defined in the Egyptian National Water Resources Plan. This paper is primarily concerned with investigating the prevailing water/food situation in Egypt. It outlines water and food security situation and figures, as well as policy measures undertaken to meet the challenges. The role of ‘virtual water’ within a broader policy framework is demonstrated using crop production and international trade data from Egypt, where substantial amounts of ‘virtual water’ is embodied in wheat and maize imports. It is argued that for a country like Egypt, affordability of applying the virtual water concept may not be a major problem, but more the priority and independency related to food security. In order to adopt the application of virtual water concept in the national water resources strategy of Egypt, there is a need for a clear vision and understanding of its advantages and disadvantages according to the Egyptian conditions. This new concept as a policy option in Egypt requires further research and thorough understanding of the impacts and interactions on the local social, economic, environmental, cultural, natural, and political situation.     

控制蒸发是解决华北地区缺水的第一要务

华北地区严重缺水,但同时因蒸发浪费了大量水资源,以海河流域为例,地表水加地下水仅占总降水资源量的16％,而蒸散发量占总降水量的84％；通过对蒸发的干预和控制,如降低降雨后土壤水分、修建地下水库和回灌地下水,可以节省大量的水资源,控制蒸发是解决华北地区缺水问题的第一要务.     

Floodplain Management in Urban Developing Areas. Part I. Urban Growth Scenarios and Land-Use Controls

Some of the most critical flood problems occur in urban areas where values at risk are higher and damages tend to be heavier. Fast urban developing regions raise very specific problems because of the unsteady situation of these regions in terms of catchment land-use and urban encroachment. A realistic approach to flood management in these situations requires the consideration of urban growth scenarios and the simulation of the corresponding flood conditions. Coastal towns are frequently located in floodplains and are subject to flood hazard. This is the case for many coastal areas in Southern Europe that are still developing fast due to migration of the population to these areas. In such cases, flood management cannot be dissociated from land-use management, and non-structural measures for flood control can play a crucial role. It is important to make an ex-post evaluation of these types of measures in areas where they have been adopted. These issues are addressed in two Portuguese catchments, representative of urban growth and related to flood problems in Portugal and other Southern European regions. The Laje catchment is used for the ex-post evaluation of nonstructural measures, and the Livramento catchment is used for the modelling of urban growth scenarios. Quantitative results and policy recommendations are presented based on these two case-studies. Floodplain management is better done with GIS, especially if it is linked to hydrologic and hydraulic modelling capabilities. The use of GIS for conducting these studies is presented in Part II of this article.     

A Fair Contract for Managing Water Scarcity

In public utilities, under supply constraints, fairness considerations lead to a market failure. This paper characterizes a two-period principal-agent contract for demand management, that mitigates this market failure in urban water systems. The contract is designed as an extensive form mechanism using subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) as the solution concept. The contract is fair; and is shown to be economically efficient if, in case of deviation by the agent, the gain to the agent and the loss to the principal are small. It is shown that the assumption can be avoided in an infinite horizon contract.     

Water Resources Modelling under Data Scarcity: Coupling MIKE BASIN and ASM Groundwater Model

The Water Framework Directive calls for strategic water resources planning at a catchment level, yet data and information are scarce in the areas where they are most needed: in the new EU Member States and Third Counties trying to assess the impact of EU environmental legislation in their water resources management policy. The research presented here proposes the coupling of a strategic scale water resources management simulation model (MIKE-Basin) and a finite difference groundwater model (ASM), as a tool to support decision making in data scarce environments. The models were applied in a particularly data scarce region, the Vrbas River basin, in Republic Srpska (RS) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and the results are presented and discussed. It is argued that the approach adopted is valid and useful as an initial knowledge development and optioneering step, which can guide a national data collection exercise to support detailed modelling, and inform a strategic decision making process relevant to the application of the water framework directive.     

A Grid-Based Approach to Water Scarcity Estimates for Eastern and Southern Africa

A novel approach is taken to the problem of estimating global water scarcity, using a realistic and consistent procedure applied across many countries. Water demands, surface flows and groundwater availability are estimated on a gridded basis, and various water availability indices are derived comparing the resource with the projected demand. Surface flows are estimated using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model linking climate to runoff and, in the major river basins, the runoff estimates for individual grid cells are accumulated to give estimates for the total flows at all points of interest. Groundwater availability is derived from hydrogeological maps based on estimates of the potential yield that can be expected from a borehole and the likely maximum borehole density. Estimates of potential groundwater recharge derived from the surface water model are also taken into account. Water demands are based on current and projected population and livestock numbers, and information on irrigation schemes and industrial water use. Results are presented for the application of the model to a region covering the whole of eastern and southern Africa. The main scenario considered includes the combined impact of climate change, population growth and improved living standards to the year 2050. The results for this scenario show that water scarcity is likely to increase in many countries in the region, with particular problems in the countries around Lake Victoria and in the southernmost parts of the pilot region.     

Developing an Interactive Spatial Multi-Attribute Decision Support System for Assessing Water Resources Allocation Scenarios

Water Resources Management - In water resource management, assessing water resource allocation scenarios (WRASs) is an important multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problem. It involves...     

A comparative Appraisal of Classical and Holistic Water Scarcity Indicators

Water Resources Management - Precise measurement of water scarcity is a prerequisite to effective resource management. Researchers have developed a range of water scarcity indicators. However, no...     

A Pilot Global Assessment of Environmental Water Requirements and Scarcity

Abstract

This paper presents a first attempt to estimate the volume of water required for the maintenance of freshwater-dependent ecosystems at the global scale. This total environmental water requirement consists of ecologically relevant low-flow and high-flow components and depends upon the objective of environmental water management. Both components are related to river flow variability and estimated by conceptual rules from discharge time series simulated by the global hydrology model. A water stress indicator is further defined, which shows what proportion of the utilizable water in world river basins is currently withdrawn for direct human use and where this use is in conflict with environmental water requirements. The paper presents an estimate of environmental water requirements for 128 major river basins and drainage regions of the world. It is shown that approximately 20 to 50 percent of the mean annual river flow in different basins needs to be allocated to freshwater-dependent ecosystems to maintain them in fair conditions. This is unlikely to be possible in many developing countries in Asia and North Africa, in parts of Australia, North America, and Europe, where current total direct water withdrawals (primarily for irrigation) already tap into the estimated environmental water requirements. Over 1.4 billion people currently live in river basins with high environmental water stress. This number will increase as water withdrawals grow and if environmental water allocations remain beyond the common practice in river basin management. This paper suggests that estimates of environmental water requirements should be the integral part of global water assessments and projections of global food production.     

Evaluation of Adaptation Scenarios for Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Allocation Using Fuzzy MCDM Methods

Due to the impacts of climate change on agriculture and water allocation, an investigation of the farmers’ perceptions and stakeholders’ views on the adaptation strategies to climate change has a great of importance for sustainable development in the future. In this study, a fuzzy based decision support system has been developed to evaluate and rank the proposed adaptation scenarios to climate change in the Jarreh agricultural water resources system in southwest of Iran. Using output of ten coupled models inter comparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), the results indicated an increasing the annual mean temperature (1.64–1.84 °C under RCP 4.5, and 1.85–2.1 °C under RCP 8.5), reducing the amount of runoff into the reservoir (17.83–46.24% under RCP 4.5, and 21.54–50.91%under RCP 8.5), as well as increasing the amount of agricultural water requirement. Also, the results showed decreasing in reliability of system (12–53% under RCP 4.5, and 23–63% under RCP 8.5). Following, due to the main purpose of the system, six adaptation scenarios by using a questionnaire and stakeholders’ opinions are proposed to mitigate the effects of climate change. In the next step, by fuzzy mode of the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE II), the proposed scenarios have been ranked according to the performance criteria. The final results of this study indicated the superiority of improving the irrigation efficiency and decreasing the area under cultivation among other proposed scenarios.

     

Scenarios for Public-Private Partnerships in Water Management: A Case Study from Jordan

The aim of this paper is to document the experience of public-private partnership (PPP) in the management of the domestic water sector in Amman city, Jordan. It also intends to reflect on the transformations in water management after the introduction of PPP using metaphors from ecology. Scenarios for water management are developed and assessed based on financial viability and political feasibility. Four scenarios for sustainable water development in Amman city are developed under two major drivers, i.e. importance and uncertainty. The scenarios developed in this paper are intended to illuminate possible ways that could affect the future of PPP for domestic water in Jordan. Based on document analysis, observations and lessons learned from ecology, scenarios for water management are developed. The process of building scenarios involves a number of steps, which include: (1) identification of focal issues and key decisions; (2) identification of key factors in the local environment; (3) listing and ranking driving forces by importance and uncertainty; (4) ranking driving forces by importance and uncertainty; and (5) considering implications. The outcomes under each critical uncertainty are assessed. Combinations of these outcomes will determine the general characteristics of each scenario. Lessons learned from the evolution of living organisms in nature, i.e. from innovation, growth, improvement and release, were utilized to characterize the water sector in Amman city after the introduction of PPP.     

Water Scarcity Impacts and Potential Conflicts in the MENA Region

Abstract

The failure of water resources to meet the basic requirements of society has a host of social, economic, environmental, and political impacts. This paper addresses those impacts with particular reference to the region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Water scarcity is a manmade phenomenon brought about by the increasing demands of the population for water. The imbalance in the population-water resources equation strains society and has an adverse impact on domestic hygiene, public health, and cost of domestic water, and could impart political problems as serious as bringing down governments. On the social side, water scarcity adversely impacts job opportunities, farm incomes, credibility and reliability of agricultural exports, and the ability of the vulnerable to meet the cost of domestic water. Economically, the adverse impact is displayed in the loss of production of goods, especially agricultural goods, the loss of working hours because of the hardships society faces as a result of water scarcity. The impacts of water scarcity on regional stability are addressed with reference to water in the Middle East Peace Process. Finally, the serious impacts of conflicts and potential water wars are discussed. Water, energy, and environment are triplets. The eventual solution to water scarcity lies in the invention of an energy generating technology that renders the cost of power affordable by societies and that does not impart serious environmental problems.     

Water Scarcity and Water Use in Economic Systems in Zhangye City, Northwestern China

Water has traditionally been considered a physically scarce resource in Northwestern China, and most investigations of water scarcity focus on the finite nature of water supplies. Based on the input–output analysis, this paper establishes a number of indicators of water consumption to analyze the structural relationships between economic activities and their physical relationships with the water resources. These indicators allow us to calculate the level of total water consumed by each sector and to distinguish between direct and indirect consumption, thus, offering the possibility of tracing the source of indirect water consumption. By drawing on the water consumption in Zhangye, a city situated in Northwestern China which is characterized by water shortage, we have discussed how the “problem” of scarcity has been constructed in this area. It is shown that the expanding agriculture and the unsuitable trade structure of exports and imports are likely to be responsible for the increasing scarcity of water in Zhangye. As a result, it seems that the problem of water scarcity in Zhangye is not necessarily a given, but instead the results of poor resource use, coordination and inadequate resource management.     

Evaluating Flood Hazard for Land-Use Planning in Greater Dhaka of Bangladesh Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques

Floods are a common feature in rapidly urbanizing Dhaka and its adjoining areas. Though Greater Dhaka experiences flood almost in every year, flood management policies are mostly based on structural options including flood walls, dykes, embankments etc. Many shortcomings of the existing flood management systems are reported in numerous literatures. The objective of this paper is to assess flood hazard in Greater Dhaka for the historical flood event of 1998 using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data with GIS data. Flood-affected frequency and flood depth calculated from the multi-date SAR imageries were used as hydrologic parameters. Elevation heights, land cover classification, geomorphic division and drainage network data generated from optical remote sensing and analogue maps were used through GIS approach. Using a ranking matrix in three dimensional multiplication mode, flood hazard was assessed. All possible combination of flood hazard maps was prepared using land-cover, geomorphology and elevation heights for flood-affected frequency and floodwater depth. Using two hazard maps which produced the highest congruence for flood frequency and flood depth, a new flood hazard map was developed by considering the interactive effect of flood-affected frequency and floodwater depth, simultaneously. This new hazard map can provide more safety for flood countermeasures because pixels belonging to higher hazard degrees were increased due to the consideration of higher degrees of ranks. The estimation of flood hazard areas revealed that a major portion of Greater Dhaka comprised moderate to very high hazard zone. Only a little portion (8.04%) was found to be the least vulnerable to potential flood hazard. Conversely, 28.70% of Greater Dhaka was found within very high hazard zone. Based on this study, comprehensive flood hazard management strategies for land use planning decision were proposed for the efficient management of future flood disasters.     

Developing Strategies for Agricultural Water Management of Large Irrigation and Drainage Networks with Fuzzy MCDM

Sustainable water resources management aims at increasing the efficient use of water and achieving food security. This work proposes a generalized novel spatial fuzzy strategic planning (SFSP) in combination with multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and a conceptual agricultural water use model for determining sustainable agricultural water management strategies. The proposed framework is applied to an irrigation and drainage network in Iran, which constitutes a large-scale water resource system. A spatial strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat (SWOT) analysis of internal and external factors related to agricultural water management is applied in this work. Possible water management strategies were ranked with the MCDM approach that combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Fuzzy technique for order-preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). The AHP estimates the criteria weights and the TOPSIS model prioritizes the agricultural water management strategies. The results of SWOT analysis show that the final scores of the internal and external factors are equal to 2.9 and 2.73, respectively. Accordingly, the most attractive strategic type is a SO (aggressive) strategy, and a combination of structural and non-structural strategies (SO, ST, and WO strategies) are the top-ranked ones. Proposed strategies for water supply and demand management are the development and rehabilitation of the physical structure of water resources system of irrigation network, improvement of operation management and maintenance of water resources system, wastewater management, and inter-basin water transfer within the irrigation network. The results indicate that the total annual volume of agricultural water under normal conditions is about 1.8 billion cubic meters, of which about 1707 million cubic meters (95%) issue from surface water sources and 90 million cubic meters (5%) from groundwater sources. The proposed model and the calculated results provide viable and effective solutions for the implementation of sustainable management of water resources and consumption in large-scale water resources systems.

     

山西省水资源紧缺状况思考及对策

一、水资源现状 据近期山西省水资源普查,全省多年平均水资源总量为123.8亿m3,其中河川径流量为86.77亿m3,地下水总量为84.04亿m3,河川径流与地下水的重复利用量为47.01亿m3,人均水资源占有量仅为376m3,为全国平均水量的1.5;耕地亩均占有量为192m3,为全国平均水平的1/9.根据中国科学院2000年可持续发展研究报告,山西省在全国31个省市自治区水资源指数(依据人均、亩均、单位面积平均水资源量)排序中列第29位.     

A Market Solution for the Israeli-Palestinian Water Dispute

The perceived shortage of water within Israel and the Palestinian authority raises the need to explore the ways and means to ameliorate existing and expected water scarcity. This study stresses the need for demand management and market allocation that will shift water from agriculture to other uses. Since the real price of water in this region is too high, water should not serve as input for many of the crops that are currently grown by the local population. The hidden and visible subsidies that are currently supporting the prices of water would be better used to create substituting employment to shift more farmers away from agricultural occupations. Such policy will ease the shortage of water that is created by policies and behavior that were aimed indirectly, to increase the use of water.     

Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions

From the water management perspective, water scarcity is an unacceptable risk of facing water shortages to serve water demands in the near future. Water scarcity may be temporary and related to drought conditions or other accidental situation, or may be permanent and due to deeper causes such as excessive demand growth, lack of infrastructure for water storage or transport, or constraints in water management. Diagnosing the causes of water scarcity in complex water resources systems is a precondition to adopt effective drought risk management actions. In this paper we present four indices which have been developed to evaluate water scarcity. We propose a methodology for interpretation of index values that can lead to conclusions about the reliability and vulnerability of systems to water scarcity, as well as to diagnose their possible causes and to propose solutions. The described methodology was applied to the Ebro river basin, identifying existing and expected problems and possible solutions. System diagnostics, based exclusively on the analysis of index values, were compared with the known reality as perceived by system managers, validating the conclusions in all cases.     

Exploring and Evaluating Scenarios for a River Catchment in Northern Australia Using Scenario Development,Multi-criteria Analysis and a Deliberative Process as a Tool for Water Planning

Water catchments worldwide are experiencing increasing pressure on the quantity and quality of ground and surface water resources. Water managers are increasingly consulting community and stakeholder groups to ensure their decisions reflect the values and preferences of water users. Growing tensions between different water users require the use of techniques that can enable stakeholders to learn about each others’ positions and deliberate about the costs and benefits of alternative water allocation scenarios. This paper describes the use of scenario development, a small group deliberative process (citizens’ jury) and multi-criteria analysis to assist in water planning for the Howard River catchment in the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia. Water planning processes in the NT are in their infancy. As such, this research provides information about stakeholder preferences where none was previously available and demonstrates the use of a new water planning tool. The research found that the process in this case was most useful in providing information to stakeholders, dispelling some unhelpful myths about water use in the catchment, and coalescing opinion about important criteria for assessing future options.     

A Compromise Solution in Water Resources Planning

The paper emphasizes compromise based on cooperativeness as a solution of a decision problem in water resources planning. A decision making process committed to consensus utilizing compromise solution as a consensus proposal is presented. The presented methodology is utilized to study the development of a reservoir system for the storage of surface flows of the Mlava River and its tributaries for regional water supply. The method VIKOR is applied to determine compromise solution of a problem with noncommensurable and conflicting criteria including economic, environmental, social, and cultural features. The obtained compromise provides a maximum group utility of the “majority” and a minimum individual regret of the “opponent”.