2020年我国能源电力消费及碳排放强度情景分析

在工业化和现代化的进程中,无论是总量还是人均,我国能源和电力消费都将快速增长,且用电量的增速更快于能源消费。我国低碳经济的发展应以不断降低碳排放强度为目标,从优化产业结构和优化能源消费结构2方面同时着手实施,情景分析表明,我国2020年碳排放强度有望比2007年降低33%～37%。     

电力生产CO2排放变化影响因素分解

利用对数平均权重分解法（LMDI）构建了电力生产CO₂排放变化影响因素的分解模型,并利用1985—2009年中国能源平衡表中的数据测算出电力生产CO₂排放量。在此基础上,将该CO₂排放量变化分解为收入效应、电力生产强度效应、电力生产结构效应、人口效应和发电煤耗效应。以1985年为基期并以我国国民经济和社会发展的五年规划为分解区间对这些影响因素进行分解分析.考察各种影响因素变动的背后原因。结合实证分析,给出相应的政策建议。     

Economic evaluation with uncertainty analysis using a Monte-Carlo simulation method for hydrogen production from high pressure PEM water electrolysis in Korea

Economic analysis with uncertainty analysis based on a Monte-Carlo simulation method was performed for hydrogen production from high pressure PEM water electrolysis targeting a hydrogen production capacity of 30 Nm³ h^?1 in Korea. With key economic parameters obtained from sensitivity analysis (SA), a cumulative probability curve was constructed for a unit H₂ production cost fully reflecting unpredictable price fluctuations in H₂ production equipment, construction, electricity, and labor from ±10% to ±50%. In addition, economic analysis for a net present value (NPV) with uncertainty analysis for revenue (REV), fixed capital investment (FCI), and cost of manufacturing (COM) provided cumulative probability curves with different discount rates and more reliable NPVs (-$ 69,000 ～$1,308,000) for high pressure PEM water electrolysis under development in Korea. This economic analysis based on uncertainty can serve as important economic indicators suitable for premature technology like high pressure PEM water electrolysis currently being in progress in Korea.     

新能源项目LCOE度电成本与IRR内部收益率的等效性分析

 随着国内新能源发电行业的发展,补贴退坡和资源竞争配置等政策的实施,全生命周期平准化发电成本（LCOE）越来越被大家关注和使用,但行业内对LCOE的计算标准不一,文章主要为了解析其与内部收益率（IRR）的关系,来提高大家对LCOE度电的认识以及规范LCOE度电成本的使用。  文章先对两者的特点和应用场景做了分析,然后通过两者计算公式的简化和转换,分析固定IRR反算电价和LCOE度电成本在模型上的差异和联系。最后通过某海上风电的实例分析,计算两者结果的实际差距,并分析造成这些差异的因素及敏感性。  从结果来看,简化条件后两者的计算模型十分接近,两者差异仅为所得税。通过实例分析,造成IRR反算电价和LCOE度电成本差异的因素有建设期增值税抵扣、增值税和所得税的税后优惠、附加税、融资情况,且这些因素的影响方向和程度都不同。可以认为,IRR内部收益率反算电价与LCOE度电成本在原理上是近似的,但受到国内财税制度的影响,输入参数、边界条件的增加使得两者出现了差异。  建议通过主管部门、行业协会等对LCOE进行适当的本地化修正,并结合环境影响成本和电力系统影响成本,使其可以横向比较不同发电形式的经济性,也可以在特定工程中,实现不同方案的经济性快速比较。     

中国中长期能源和电力需求及碳排放情景分析

综合考虑未来经济发展和主要行业产品产量,对比国内外分行业能源强度和电力强度的变化,采用\"自下而上\"的方法构建了中国中长期能源、电力需求及碳排放情景分析模型。分3种情景对2015、2020、2030年的全国能源、电力需求与结构以及碳排放进行了分析,测算了非化石能源消费比例和碳排放强度。结果表明,2020年我国一次能源需求50亿t标准煤左右,全社会用电量7.7×1012kW.h左右;3种经济发展情景下,均能实现2020年碳排放量比2005年下降40%～45%的目标;在非化石能源开发达到规划上限的条件下,能够实现非化石能源消费占一次能源消费比重15%的目标。     

碳排放权、碳资本与企业碳竞争优势培育

碳排放权交易的推出,使得企业的碳排放权资源成为一种资本,世界正在进入碳资本时代。碳资本时代给企业的竞争优势源泉带来了颠覆性影响。综合竞争优势理论的产业基础观、资源基础观和新制度主义观,分析了碳资本时代对企业竞争优势的双向影响,提出了碳竞争优势的概念,研究了产业先见、碳排放价值链以及碳资本市场对企业获取碳竞争优势的影响机理,提出了培育碳竞争优势的措施。     

Feasibility study of off-shore wind farms: an application to Puglia region

Recent environmental constraints and new secure technologies have enforced the development of comprehensive programmes for renewable energy. Wind energy is one of the most promising solutions, especially considering its technological advancements and its growth over the last years. In particular, off-shore wind energy is a key element in the EU White Paper target of 10% contribution of Renewable energy by 2010.In this paper, the technical and economical feasibility of off-shore wind farms is reviewed, in order to evaluate profitability and investment opportunities. In particular, a pre-feasibility study of off-shore wind farms to some selected sites in Puglia Region is provided. The study indicates the best sites in Puglia Region for off-shore plants. For each site, the cost of energy and the profitability of the investment are calculated. Moreover, in the most promising site, different wind turbine generators (WTGs) models are compared in order to evaluate the best performances. In the best site, which presents an average wind speed at 35 m height of 7.66 m/s, the cost of energy ranges between 5.2 and 6.0 c€/kWh. Moreover, the analysis shows that the use of large size WTGs allows reducing the cost of energy and increasing the profitability of the wind farm.     

电力市场下发电企业碳排放定价模型

中国的碳排放交易市场建设处于试点阶段,碳排放的定价成为理顺能源价格链的重要环节。为充分体现碳排放配额的市场价值,考虑碳排放定价的市场需求、排放上限、发电成本以及减排成本4个因素,以发电商效益最大化为目标构建电力市场下的Nash均衡模型;通过模型的求解测算出市场均衡状态下碳排放的价格水平以及发电商的收益状况;为进一步了解敏感因素对碳排放定价的影响程度,分别就4个重要因素对碳排放定价的影响进行敏感性分析,结果表明,市场需求、减排成本与碳排放价格呈正相关,排放上限、发电成本与碳排放价格呈负相关。     

Economic feasibility assessment of rice straw utilization for electricity generating through combustion in Thailand

The economic feasibility of biomass based combustion projects of various capacities to generate electricity from rice straw is evaluated for Thailand. For an assumed lifespan of 20 years, rice straw-fueled combustion facilities would generate Net Present Values (NPV) of −3.15, 0.94, 2.96, 9.33, and 18.79 million USD for projected 5, 8, 10, 15, and 20 MW_e plants, respectively. Examining the effects of scale on the cost of generated electricity (COE) over the considered range of capacities indicates that COE varies from 0.0676 USD/kWh at 20 MW_e to 0.0899 USD/kWh at 5 MW_e. By scaling up the power plants, the variations of the financial parameters, namely NPV values, become less sensitive to the critical variables. As an example, if the fuel price, selling price of electricity, and the plant factor change by +36% (31.0 USD/t), −16% (0.0758 USD/kWh), and −14% (5650 h/yr), respectively, the largest scale project is still appealing for investment. Nevertheless, to ensure a secure fuel supply, smaller scale power plants, i.e., 8 and 10 MW_e may be more practicable. A further sensitivity analysis is discussed in terms of the financial feasibility of the projects (i.e., NPV ? 0), and the investment appraisal condition (here, Internal Rate of Return or IRR ? 11%).     

氢燃料的制储运及其在燃气轮机中的应用

氢燃料具有来源广泛、燃烧无碳排放等优点,燃气轮机作为工业、电力等领域不可或缺的设备,将氢燃 料用于燃气轮机可有效降低碳排放并解决可再生能源发电的波动问题。为向我国节能减排提供技术参考,本文 围绕氢燃料的制、储、运以及在燃气轮机中的应用这四个环节进行综述,对比总结了各环节技术原理及优缺点。 灰氢虽制备技术成熟、成本较低,但碳排放最高,随着ecus\"碳捕集、利用与封存)技术及绿氢制备技术的发展, 蓝氢、绿氢将逐步取代灰氢。高压气态储氢、低温液态储氢是目前最成熟的储氢方式,储氢密度较高的固态、液 态储氢是未来储氢技术发展的主流,但其目前存在的主要挑战为储氢材料吸放氢条件苛刻,需研制高效催化剂。 液态船舶及管道掺氢运输是前景较好的输氢方式。氢燃气轮机分为掺氢、纯氢燃气轮机,目前示范项目基本为 掺氢燃气轮机,扩散型掺氢燃烧器可燃烧掺氢比例高达90%的燃料,预混型掺氢燃烧器掺氢比例较低,纯氢燃 烧器大多还处于试验阶段,但从长期来看,纯氢燃烧器是未来氢燃气轮机发展的主要方向。     

二氧化碳排放量化方法探讨

目前,通用的量化二氧化碳排放方法是IPCC排放因子法,但IPCC的排放因子是否适用于我国的排放源有待商榷。利用现场监测的烟道内的温度、压力、二氧化碳浓度、一氧化碳浓度、烟气流速、水蒸气体积百分比等参数,采用质量比法、时间比法、负荷法以及IPCC排放因子法等多种方法,对某企业不同时间段内的二氧化碳排放情况进行量化。结果表明,如果国内企业采用国际通用的量化二氧化碳排放方法,则得到的二氧化碳排放量偏大。为了能更准确地获得燃烧排放源的二氧化碳排放情况,需要采用现场监测的方法。质量比法与IPCC排放因子法的量化结果,其准确性严重依赖于燃料计量数据的准确性,不推荐采用。时间比法的量化结果虽然优于质量比法,但不适合用于量化较长时间段内的二氧化碳排放量。负荷法由于考虑了负荷的影响,其量化结果更为可靠。建议企业通过监测手段,采用负荷法量化燃烧排放源的二氧化碳排放量。为了尽可能减小由客观因素带来的排放量的不确定性,建议选择不同时间段、不同工况多次监测量化燃烧排放源某年度的二氧化碳排放量。     

中国可持续能源发展情景及其碳排放分析

中国目前已经制定了中长期的社会经济发展战略,“十五”规划中也提出了一些战略要点,如可持续发展,科技进步,西部开发战略,城市化和人才战略。如果中国要实现上述预期目标,能源部门应当有那些行动,政府和市场的作用如何?为此的环境代价如何?也确实值得从社会、经济、能源、环境可持续发展的角度,开展上述研究工作。本文简要介绍了研究的方法与思路,情景设计的基本考虑以及主要结论。文章最后还对影响中国能源发展之路的不确定因素进行了分析评价。     

火电机组碳排放量及碳敏感性通用矩阵模型

为实现火电机组碳排放量的简便准确计量及掌握运行因素对机组碳排放强度的影响,在排放因子法技术上,参考传统q-γ-τ矩阵结构形式,根据求解火电机组碳排放量的需要,并掌握运行参数对发电碳排放强度的影响,建立了火电机组碳排放量及碳敏感性通用矩阵模型,确定了矩阵填写规则。采用热平衡法结合物料衡算法验证了模型的准确性,并与排放因子法核算结果对比;核算了某火电机组24 h的碳排放量,分析了排烟氧量、主蒸汽温度和压力波动时的发电碳排放强度的扰动量ΔM_CO2。结果表明：相较于排放因子法,本文所提模型缩短了碳排放量核算的时间跨度,且能提高碳排放量核算的精度;该机组24 h的碳排放量为5 780.644 t;当排烟氧量降低0.1%时,ΔM_CO2为1.772 6 g/（kW·h）;当主蒸汽温度升高0.5 K时,ΔM_CO2为3.020 6 g/（kW·h）;当主蒸汽压力增加0.2 MPa时,ΔM_CO2为0.378 8 g/（kW·h）。     

Technical cost modelling for a generic 45-m wind turbine blade producedby vacuum infusion (VI)

A detailed technical cost analysis has been conducted on a generic 45-m wind turbine blade manufactured using the vacuum infusion (VI) process, in order to isolate areas of significant cost savings. The analysis has focused on a high labour cost environment such as the UK and investigates the influence of varying labour costs, programme life, component area, deposition time, cure time and reinforcement price with respect to production volume. A split of the cost centres showed the dominance of material and labour costs at approximately 51% and 41%, respectively. Due to the dominance of materials, it was shown that fluctuations in reinforcement costs can easily increase or decrease the cost of a turbine blade by up to 14%. Similarly, improving material deposition time by 2 h can save approximately 5% on the total blade cost. However, saving 4 h on the cure cycle only has the potential to provide a 2% cost saving.     

中国电力工业碳排放强度影响因素实证分析

电力工业在保障经济快速发展同时,也面临较大的节能减排压力。对电力工业CO₂排放强度的影响因素进行实证分析,利用对数平均迪氏指数法建立因素分解模型,分析1991—2010年厂用电率、发电结构、发电煤耗、线损率等因素的变化对电力工业碳排放强度变化的影响。结果显示,碳排放强度累计下降主要受发电煤耗下降的正向作用,而碳排放强度的短期变化主要受发电结构影响,其次是发电煤耗,再次是线损率和厂用电率。     

Hydrogen for heat: Using underground hydrogen storage for seasonal energy shifting in northern climates

To determine if a power-to-gas pilot-scale plant would be possible in Oregon, a feasibility study was conducted that assessed the technical, political, economic, environmental, safety, and policy aspects of a potential project in the region. The results of this study were submitted as part of Oregon State University – Cascades' entry to the Hydrogen Education Foundation's 2018 student design competition. The Pacific Northwest has a need for long term energy storage (seasonal energy shifting) due to seasonally available low-priced, low-carbon electricity. There appears to be the political motivation and the technical feasibility to install a demonstration-scale power-to-gas plant in the region to assess the technical and economic performance of the system when exposed to real-world boundary conditions. However, preliminary economic analyses show the system will be challenged by low capacity factor operation resulting in a levelized cost of hydrogen of $121.81/kg_H2 when only using otherwise curtailed electricity, or $8.84/kg_H2 when running continuously for 6 months per annum. To fund a pilot scale plant a renewable gas development surcharge of $0.18/therm is proposed as a way for willing customers to support the decarbonization mission. There is precedent within the utility for such an incentive, indicating that it would be approved by the utility commission and could be a viable path forward for a pilot-scale plant.     

基于小波分析和灰色模型的用电量预测

月度用电量同时具有增长性和季节波动性的二重趋势,针对月度用电量的这一变化特点,提出了一种基于小波分析和灰色预测模型的用电量预测方法,同时考虑春节影响因素,结合移位修正法对1月份和2月份的用电量进行修正.经过实例分析和计算,结果表明该方法有较高的预测精度,具有较好的适用性和可行性.