Foreword: Stressors and successes,Lake Ontario CSMI intensive year 2018

As the human population of the Lake Ontario basin continues to grow, targeted research and monitoring activities to inform adaptive management are increasingly important for protecting the Lake Ontario ecosystem. As the most downstream of the Great Lakes, the Lake Ontario ecosystem is under pressure from a wide range of stressors including chemical contaminants and invasive species. This special issue highlights the broad network of binational research and monitoring efforts by federal, state, and provincial agencies and academic partners that took place during the 2018 Cooperative Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI) field year for Lake Ontario. The research and monitoring by creative and collaborative teams assembled under the umbrella of CSMI 2018 includes projects that investigated a wide variety of factors impacting the lake ecosystem, ranging from physics to chemistry and biology. This issue also provides examples of data sharing/synthesis and modeling tools that promote the use of these extensive datasets to explore ecosystem management options. The research and monitoring outcomes from CSMI 2018 provide managers with current information on the Lake Ontario ecosystem to inform decision making and guide restoration and protection efforts.     

Great Lakes total phosphorus revisited: 1. Loading analysis and update (1994–2008)

Phosphorus load estimates have been updated for all of the Great Lakes with an emphasis on lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron and Ontario for 1994–2008. Lake Erie phosphorus loads have been kept current with previous work and for completeness are reported here. A combination of modeling and data analysis is employed to evaluate whether target loads established by the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA, 1978, Annex 3) have been and are currently being met. Data from federal, state, and provincial agencies were assembled and processed to yield annual estimates for all lakes and sources. A mass-balance model was used to check the consistency of loads and to estimate interlake transport. The analysis suggests that the GLWQA target loads have been consistently met for the main bodies of lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron. However, exceedances still persist for Saginaw Bay. For lakes Erie and Ontario, loadings are currently estimated to be at or just under the target (with some notable exceptions). Because interannual variability is high, the target loads have not been met consistently for the lower Great Lakes. The analysis also indicates that, because of decreasing TP concentrations in the lakes, interlake transport of TP has declined significantly since the mid-1970s. Thus, it is important that these changes be included in future assessments of compliance with TP load targets. Finally, detailed tables of the yearly (1994–2008) estimates are provided, as well as annual summaries by lake tributary basin (in Supplementary Information).     

A brief history of the U.S. EPA Great Lakes National Program Office's water quality survey

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Great Lakes National Program Office (GLNPO) water quality survey (WQS) constitutes the longest-running, most extensive monitoring of water quality and the lower trophic level biota of the Laurentian Great Lakes, and has been instrumental in tracking shifts in nutrients and the lower food web over the past several decades. The initial impetus for regular monitoring of the Great Lakes was provided by the 1972 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) which asked the parties to develop monitoring and surveillance programs to ensure compliance with the goals of the agreement. The resulting monitoring plan, eventually known as the Great Lakes International Surveillance Plan (GLISP), envisioned a nine-year rotation of intensive surveys of the five lakes. A broadening of the scope of the GLWQA in 1978 and the completion of the first nine-year cycle of sampling, prompted reappraisals of the GLISP. During this pause, and using knowledge gained from GLISP, GLNPO initiated an annual WQS with the narrower focus of tracking water quality changes and plankton communities in the offshore waters of the lakes. Beginning in 1983 with lakes Erie, Huron, and Michigan, the WQS added Lake Ontario in 1986 and Lake Superior in 1992, evolving into its current form in which all five lakes are sampled twice a year. The WQS is unique in that all five lakes are sampled by one agency, using one vessel and one principal laboratory for each parameter group, and represents an invaluable resource for managing and understanding the Great Lakes.     

Mean Circulation in the Great Lakes

In this paper new maps are presented of mean circulation in the Great Lakes, employing long-term current observations from about 100 Great Lakes moorings during the 1960s to 1980s. Knowledge of the mean circulation in the Great Lakes is important for ecological and management issues because it provides an indication of transport pathways of nutrients and contaminants on longer time scales. Based on the availability of data, summer circulation patterns in all of the Great Lakes, winter circulation patterns in all of the Great Lakes except Lake Superior, and annual circulation patterns in Lakes Erie, Michigan, and Ontario were derived. Winter currents are generally stronger than summer currents, and, therefore, annual circulation closely resembles winter circulation. Circulation patterns tend to be cyclonic (counterclockwise) in the larger lakes (Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, and Lake Superior) with increased cyclonic circulation in winter. In the smaller lakes (Lake Erie and Lake Ontario), winter circulation is characterized by a two-gyre circulation pattern. Summer circulation in the smaller lakes is different; predominantly cyclonic in Lake Ontario and anticyclonic in Lake Erie.     

Origins of Rainbow Smelt in Lake Ontario

The first rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) to enter Lake Ontario were probably migrants from an anadromous strain introduced into New York's Finger Lakes. Since the upper Great Lakes were originally stocked with a landlocked strain from Green Lake, Maine, subsequent migration to Lake Ontario from Lake Erie makes Lake Ontario unique among the Great Lakes in probably having received introductions from two distinct populations.     

Crossing boundaries between science and policy: Two case studies illustrate the importance of boundary organizations in the Great Lakes Basin

Boundary organizations are institutions that interface between science and policy by facilitating interactions between scientists, policy specialists, and other stakeholders to inform collaborative decision-making. Natural resource management in the Great Lakes Basin is complex and a shared exercise among two federal governments, eight states, two provinces, and over 200 sovereign Tribes, First Nations, and Métis. Many governmental agencies have recognized a need to effectively engage with other jurisdictions in order to bridge the gaps between scientific knowledge and policy decisions. As a result, boundary organizations have emerged to facilitate planning and implementation of collaborative governance frameworks. This commentary highlights how decades of shared governance of the world’s largest freshwater surface water system is augmented and assisted by boundary organizations in addressing two key Great Lakes management issues – Western Lake Erie Basin nutrient levels and Lake Michigan fisheries – which are complex, broad in scale, and pose challenges that must be addressed collaboratively across jurisdictions. While there are many governmental and non-governmental entities that engage in boundary organization-like behaviors, this commentary will be centered on three key institutions: The Great Lakes Executive Committee’s Annex 4 (Nutrients) Subcommittee, the Great Lakes Commission, and the Great Lakes Fishery Commission. We illustrate how each organization procedurally engages stakeholders, especially within state and provincial jurisdictions, to produce information and products that add breadth and capacity to manage the ecosystems of the Great Lakes. We also highlight areas of success and opportunities for improvement in collaborative governance frameworks now and into the future.     

Renovation and Innovation: It’s Time for the Great Lakes Regime to Respond

This commentary reports on a project to explore and evaluate options for Great Lakes governance renewal in anticipation of the 2006–2007 review of the Canada–US Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA). The research included expert interviews and scholarly analysis of governance regimes in 2006, leading to a Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Governance Expert Workshop held in June 2007 (Krantzberg et al. 2007). The two authors have been participants and at times leaders in the institutions this commentary addresses, Krantzberg with the International Joint Commission and Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Manno with the New York Great Lakes Research Consortium and Great Lakes United. Our familiarity with the topic and many of the people involved was helpful in gaining participation and is in itself a rich source of knowledge and experience. In discussing a topic of contemporary controversy, it also understandably can make readers question the objectivity of our assessment. We are also trained in social science scholarship and have taken precautions against biasing the outcomes. This is not intended to be merely a presentation of data. We believe our experience is a net asset in addressing these questions but we leave it to the interested reader to review the reports referenced herein and judge for themselves whether our findings are fairly presented.     

Long-term Trends in the Seasonal Cycle of Great Lakes Water Levels

Numerous long-term trends in the rate-of-change in monthly mean Great Lakes water levels are identified for the period 1860 to 1998. Statistically significant trends are found for 2, 4, 5, and 7 months of the year for Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, Erie, and Ontario, respectively. Many of the trends translate into large changes in net water flux (600 to 1,700 m³/s). In each case, significant positive trends are roughly offset by negative trends during other times of the year. Together with similar trends in monthly lake level anomalies (deviations from the annual mean), these trends indicate important changes in the seasonal cycle of Great Lakes water levels. Specifically, Lakes Erie and Ontario are rising and falling (on an annual basis) roughly one month earlier than they did 139 years ago. Maximum lake levels for Lake Superior are also slightly earlier in the year, and the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of Lake Ontario is found to increase by 23% over the 139-year period. Some of the changes are consistent with the predicted impacts of global warming on spring snowmelt and runoff in the Great Lakes region. Other potential contributors to the observed trends include seasonal changes in precipitation and humaninduced effects such as lake regulation and changes in land use.     

Pelagic Bird Survey on Lake Ontario Following Hurricane Isabel,September 2003: Observations and Remarks on Methodology

The abundance and dispersion of pelagic waterbirds was measured on Lake Ontario during the aftermath of the storm system generated by Hurricane Isabel, September 2003. The purpose of this study was to determine whether standard shipboard methodologies developed for surveying pelagic seabirds from ships on the ocean are applicable on the Laurentian Great Lakes, and if so whether such surveys may provide information that cannot be acquired from shore-based surveys. The abundance of waterbirds was low in offshore Lake Ontario, but similar to oligotrophic ocean environments. Our results suggest that bird surveys are easy to conduct from Great Lakes research vessels, and are likely to provide information useful for monitoring ecosystem health in the Lakes.     

Trends in Total Phosphorus in Canadian Near–Shore Waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes: 1976–1999

Beginning as early as 1976 at many locations, total phosphorus concentrations (TP) were measured weekly in samples collected year-round in the intake water of 18 municipal water treatment plants in Canadian (Ontario) waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes. No consistent long-term trends were evident at two north-shore Lake Superior sampling locations, but there were significant long-term declines in TP measured at all three Lake Huron locations; however, concentrations there have remained relatively constant during the past decade. Declines in TP averaging about 1 μg/L/yr during 1976 to 1990 were prevalent at lower Great Lakes sampling locations and by the early 1990s TP had declined to 15–25 μg/L in Lake Erie and 10–20 μg/L in Lake Ontario. Declines generally levelled out in Lake Ontario after 1990, but TP increased substantially at some Lake Erie locations in the late 1990s. Recent (1996 to 1999) total phosphorus concentrations in north-shore Lake Erie locations in the range of 20 to 30 μg/L were 2 to 3 times higher than at Lake Ontario near-shore locations in the 8 to 11 μg/L range. Rates of decline of TP were generally highest for the March–April period (−1.88, −1.61, and −1.34 μg/L/yr in Lakes Ontario, Erie, and Huron, respectively for 1976 to 1990). The March–April Lake Ontario near-shore rate of TP decline was nearly twice as high as that reported previously for off-shore Lake Ontario (attributed to proximity to P loading sources and to lower net sedimentation losses of P in the near-shore environment). There were substantial declines in chlorophyll-to-TP ratios and in the slopes and Y-intercepts of chlorophyll-TP regressions for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario following the establishment of dreissenid mussels.     

Are PCB Levels in Fish from the Canadian Great Lakes Still Declining?

Long- and short-term levels and trends of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and walleye (Sander vitreus) from the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes are examined using the bootstrap resampling method in light of the Great Lakes Strategy 2002 (GLS-2002) objective of decrease in concentrations by 25% during 2000–2007. This objective has been set as an indicator of progress toward the long-term goal of all Great Lakes fish being safe to eat without restriction. Lake Superior lake trout and walleye PCB concentrations were almost unchanged between 1990-2006, and the bootstrap analysis suggests that the probability of achieving the GLS-2002 objective is negligible (< 2%). The PCB levels in Lake Huron lake trout and walleye are decreasing; the declines between 2000–2007 are estimated to be 25–35% and 5–30%, respectively. In contrast, Lake Erie walleye concentrations will likely increase by 25–50% between 2000–2007. For Lake Ontario lake trout, achieving the 25% reduction target seems highly probable with a likely decrease of 45–55%; for Lake Ontario walleye, the probability of achieving such a reduction is only 8% with an expected change of −13 to +15%. Although the targeted reduction may not be achieved for walleye from Lakes Superior, Huron, and Ontario, their best projected 2007 PCB levels are below the unlimited fish consumption guideline of 105 ng/g wet weight used by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. In contrast, although there are high probabilities of achieving the goal for lake trout from Lakes Huron and Ontario, their best projected 2007 PCB levels (160 and 370 ng/g ww, respectively) will continue to result in consumption restrictions. Lake Superior lake trout concentrations may remain unchanged at the current elevated level of 160 ng/g ww. For Lake Erie fish, the projected 2007 concentrations and the increasing trends are both worrisome. Additional measurements beyond 2007 are necessary to confirm these estimates because of the observed periodic oscillations in the concentrations.     

Hydrology influences generalist–specialist bird-based indices of biotic integrity in Great Lakes coastal wetlands

Marsh bird habitats are influenced by water levels which may pose challenges for interpreting bird-based indices of wetland health. We determined how much fluctuating water levels and associated changes in emergent vegetation influence the Index of Marsh Bird Community Integrity (IMBCI) using data collected in Great Lakes coastal wetlands by participants in Bird Studies Canada's Great Lakes Marsh Monitoring Program. IMBCI scores for 90 wetlands in Lake Erie and 131 wetlands in Lake Ontario decreased with decreasing water levels due to decreasing number of marsh-dependent species in Lake Erie and perhaps also in Lake Ontario. The average magnitude of the decrease in scores between extremely high and low water periods for wetlands with sufficient data was 15% in Lake Erie where water dropped 0.9 m on average (n = 11 wetlands) and 18% in Lake Ontario where water dropped 0.5 m (n = 7). Scores in Lake Erie increased with increasing Typha due to increasing numbers of marsh-dependent species and decreased with increasing Phragmites due to increasing numbers of generalist species. The opposite was observed in Lake Ontario, perhaps due to denser Typha and sparser Phragmites. Scores were explained by the naturally fluctuating water levels of Lake Erie, which favored Phragmites expansion and the regulated water levels of Lake Ontario which promoted Typha expansion. Scores were influenced by fluctuating water levels and associated changes in emergent vegetation. Inter-annual water level fluctuations should be considered when interpreting any indicator of wetland health that is based on marsh-dependent bird species.     

Associations between Breeding Marsh Bird Abundances and Great Lakes Hydrology

We used Great Lakes hydrologic data and bird monitoring data from the Great Lakes Marsh Monitoring Program from 1995–2002 to: 1) evaluate trends and patterns of annual change in May-July water levels for Lakes Ontario, Erie, and Huron-Michigan, 2) report on trends of relative abundance for birds breeding in Great Lakes coastal marshes, and 3) correlate basin-wide and lake-specific annual indices of bird abundance with Great Lakes water levels. From 1995–2002, average May, June, and July water levels in all lake basins showed some annual variation, but Lakes Erie and Huron-Michigan had identical annual fluctuation patterns and general water level declines. No trend was observed in Lake Ontario water levels over this period. Abundance for five of seven marsh birds in Lake Ontario wetlands showed no temporal trends, whereas abundance of black tern (Chlidonias niger) declined and that of swamp sparrow (Melospiza georgiana) increased from 1995–2002. In contrast, abundances of American coot (Fulica americana), black tern, common moorhen (Gallinula chloropus), least bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), marsh wren (Cistorthorus palustris), pied-billed grebe (Podilymbus podiceps), sora (Porzana carolina), swamp sparrow, and Virginia rail (Rallus limicola) declined within marshes at Lakes Erie and Huron/Michigan from 1995–2002. Annual abundances of several birds we examined showed positive correlations with annual lake level changes in non-regulated Lakes Erie and Huron/Michigan, whereas most birds we examined in Lake Ontario coastal wetlands were not correlated with suppressed water level changes of this lake. Overall, our results suggest that long-term changes and annual water level fluctuations are important abiotic factors affecting abundance of some marsh-dependent birds in Great Lakes coastal marshes. For this reason, wetland bird population monitoring initiatives should consider using methods in sampling protocols, or during data analyses, to account for temporal and spatial components of hydrologic variability that affect wetlands and their avifauna.     

European Valve Snail Valvata piscinalis (Müller) in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

Previously reported from the lower Great Lakes basin and St. Lawrence and Hudson rivers, the nonindigenous gastropod Valvata piscinalis was found for the first time in Superior Bay (Minnesota) of Lake Superior, Lake Michigan (Wisconsin), and Oneida Lake (New York) of the Lake Ontario basin. This snail was not abundant in Lakes Superior and Michigan, whereas in eutrophic Oneida Lake it reached a maximum density of 1,690 individuals/m² (mean density = 216 individuals/m²). Human-mediated disturbances could facilitate the range extension of this snail by providing dispersal opportunities (e.g., canals, shipping traffic) or increasing nutrients (e.g., eutrophication). A native of the Palaearctic region, V. piscinalis has colonized sites across the Great Lakes basin, suggesting that it will likely become common in disturbed Great Lakes areas.     

Water Diversion from the Great Lakes: Is a Cooperative Approach Possible?

The concern about other states diverting water from the Great Lakes has prompted the Great Lakes States and provinces to adopt institutional arrangements that have effectively blocked any new diversions.Since the current arrangements do not allow diversions, important opportunities may be lost in the future. This article considers the possibility of 'economically desirable diversions' and how the gains should be allocated among the states and provinces to foster cooperation. The study shows that in most cases, new institutional arrangements will be needed before agreements can be reached. Game theory is used to determine how coalitions may be formed to reach cooperative agreements for diversions. Five different lake diversion games are tried involving Lake Ontario, Lake Superior, Lake Erie, Lake Michigan-Huron, and finally, all the lakes together. Diversions from Lake Ontario may offer the best opportunity for cooperation since there are no interlake effects.     

Predicting the potential distribution of the non-native Red Swamp Crayfish Procambarus clarkii in the Laurentian Great Lakes

The ongoing threat of introduction of invasive species, including crayfish, to the Laurentian Great Lakes has motivated the development of predictive models to inform where these invaders are likely to establish. Our study is among the first to apply regional freshwater-specific GIS layers to species occurrence data to predict ecosystem suitability to invasions, specifically for the red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, in the Great Lakes. We combined a database of crayfish species occurrences with the Great Lakes Aquatic Habitat Framework (GLAHF) GIS layers to model habitats suitable to invasion by P. clarkii using boosted regression trees and physiological information for this species. We developed a model of all suitable crayfish habitat across the Great Lakes, then constrained this habitat to areas anticipated to be suitable for P. clarkii based on known physiological limitations of this species. Specifically, P. clarkii requires a minimum temperature of 15?°C for copulation and oviposition, with peak reproduction occurring at temperatures of 20–23?°C. We identified 2% of the Great Lakes as suitable for P. clarkii establishment and 0.88% as optimal for this crayfish, primarily located on the southern coastlines of lakes Michigan and Erie and shallow bays including Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron), Green Bay (Lake Michigan), and Henderson Bay (Lake Ontario). These predictions of where P. clarkii is likely to establish populations can be used to identify areas where education, outreach, compliance, and law enforcement efforts should seek to prevent new introductions of this crayfish and help prioritize locations for surveillance to detect newly established populations.     

Genetic population structure of cisco,Coregonus artedi,in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Management of a widely distributed species can be a challenge when management priorities, resource status, and assessment methods vary across jurisdictions. For example, restoration and preservation of coregonine species diversity is a goal of management agencies across the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, management goals and the amount of information available varies across management units, making the focus for management efforts challenging to determine. Genetic data provide a spatially consistent means to assess diversity. Therefore, we examined the genetic stock structure of cisco (Coregonus artedi) in the Great Lakes where the species is still extant. Using genotype data from 17 microsatellite DNA loci, we observed low levels of population structure among collections with most contributions to overall diversity occurring among lakes. Cisco from lakes Superior, Michigan, Ontario, and the St. Marys River could be considered single genetic populations while distinct genetic populations were observed among samples from northern Lake Huron. Significant within-lake diversity in Lake Huron is supported by populations found in embayments in northern Lake Huron. The Grand Traverse Bay population in Lake Michigan represents a distinct population with reduced levels of genetic variation when compared to other lakes. The different levels of within lake population structure we observed will be important to consider as future lake-specific management plans are developed.     

Lake Sturgeon Waters and Fisheries in New York State

Historic and contemporary records of lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) occurrences in new York State have been assembled in this report to assist in planning and prioritizing the areas for restoration. This has become important because information about this threatened species is not easily assembled nor easily retrieved from the few remaining fishermen. Lake sturgeon were identified in 17 waters of New York State in the Great Lakes drainage including Lakes Erie, Ontario, Champlain, and the Niagara and St. Lawrence rivers. Two other rivers in the Laurentain Great Lakes drainage had self-sustaining populations, five others historically supported spawning runs, and five other waters had historical records of use or relict populations. Lake Erie provided the largest historic fishery for lake sturgeon in New York State (1,678 tonne reported in 1885) followed by Lake Ontario (292 tonne reported in 1890). All the major waters (the first five identified above) had large harvests, and two tributaries to the St. Lawrence River, the Grasse and Oswegatchie rivers, also provided commercial harvests. The Great Lakes fisheries were reduced to abandonment by the 1940s and the remaining ones were discontinued by the 1960s. Currently, lake sturgeon are self-sustaining at very low levels in the upper Niagara, St. Lawrence, and the Grasse rivers. The fish is protected from harvest in all areas but one.     

Analysis of changes in the Great Lakes hydro-climatic variables

A study of changes in hydro-climatology of the Great Lakes was performed incorporating the nonparametric Mann–Kendall trend detection test and a recently developed Bayesian multiple change point detection model. The Component Net Basin Supply (C-NBS) and its components (runoff, precipitation, evaporation) as well as water levels of Great Lakes were analyzed for gradual (i.e. trend type) and abrupt (i.e. shift type) nonstationary behaviors at seasonal and annual scales. It was found that the C-NBS experienced significant upward trends only in the lower Great Lakes (Erie, Ontario) during the summer portion of the year. At an annual scale upward trends were observed only in Lake Ontario. Change point analysis suggested an upward shift in Great Lakes C-NBS in the late 1960s and early 1970s. A combination of gradual and abrupt change analysis of Great Lakes water levels indicated a common upward shift along with a change in trend direction around the early 1970s. It was also found that precipitation and runoff are on a plateau and in some cases on a decreasing course following an increasing trend in the early twentieth century. Results obtained from this study show that the hydro-climatology of Great Lakes is characterized by nonstationary behavior. Changes in this behavior have caused the Great Lakes water levels to decrease during the last few decades. This study provides valuable insights into the nature of the nonstationary behavior of hydro-climatic variables of Great Lakes and contributes useful information to the future water management planning.     

Quantification of Historical Changes of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Cover in Two Bays of Lake Ontario with Three Complementary Methods

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) distribution and coverage were quantified in two bays of Lake Ontario in 1972, 1980 (1982), and 1999–2002, using a combination of aerial photograph interpretation (API), hydroacoustics, and rake sampling. The three methods gave similar estimates of SAV presence in 2002, supporting our use of API for quantifying SAV changes across decades in bays of a large lake. The SAV coverage in Sodus Bay increased by 5% between 1972 and 1980 and by 35% between 1980 and 1999–2002 whereas the maximum depth of SAV colonization extended from 5.5 to 6.4 m during this period. In Chaumont Bay, the SAV coverage tripled while its maximum depth of occurrence increased from 5.1 to 6.1 m from 1982 to 2002. Although the difference in SAV coverage between 1972 and 1980 was not larger than the difference between consecutive years in the 2000s, the large increase in SAV coverage between the 1980s and 2000s represents a major ecosystem change in these bays. This change was likely caused by increased water clarity in Lake Ontario, which could be associated with the implementation of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) and the dreissenid mussel invasion. Although other factors such as water level, wave exposure, bottom slope, and sediment nutrients may be important, they have not changed in a fashion that would predict local increases of SAV coverage.