A quantitative risk assessment of hydrogen fuel cell forklifts

With the increasing deployment of hydrogen fuel cell forklifts, it is essential to understand the risks of incidents involving these systems. A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) study was conducted to determine the potential hydrogen release scenarios, probabilities, and consequences in fuel cell forklift operations. QRA modeling tools, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and event sequence diagrams (ESD), were used together with hydrogen systems data. This work provides insights into the fatality risk from a hydrogen fuel cell forklift and the reliability of its design and components. The analysis shows that the expected fatal accident rate of a hydrogen forklift is considerably higher than current fatal injury rates observed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for industrial truck operators and material handling occupations. Nevertheless, the average individual risk posed to forklift drivers was found to be likely tolerable based on current risks accepted by industrial truck operators. Jet fires are found to dominate the system's risk, however, the risk of explosions is also considerable. An importance measures analysis shows that these risks could be mitigated by improving the design and reliability of pressure relief devices, as well as other components prone to leak such as filters and check valves. We also identify sources of uncertainty and conservatisms in the QRA process that can guide future research in hydrogen systems. These results provide powerful insight into improvements in the design of fuel cell forklifts to reduce risk and enable the safe deployment of this key technology for a decarbonized future.     

Risk analysis for the infrastructure of a hydrogen economy

Increasing scarcity of fossil fuels makes the deployment of hydrogen in combination with renewable energy sources, nuclear energy or the utilization of electricity from full time operation of existing power stations an interesting alternative. A pre-requisite is, however, that the safety of the required infrastructure is investigated and that its design is made such that the associated risk is at least not higher than that of existing supplies. Therefore, a risk analysis considering its most important objects such as storage tanks, filling stations, vehicles as well as heating and electricity supplies for residential buildings was carried out. The latter are considered as representative of the entire infrastructure. The study is based on fault and event tree analyses, wherever required, and consequence calculations using the PHAST code. The procedure for evaluating the risk and corresponding results are presented taking one of the objects as an example.     

Hydrogen safety engineering framework and elementary design safety tools

The viability and public acceptance of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell (H2FC) systems and infrastructure depends on their robust safety engineering design and on education and training of the workforce, regulators and other stakeholders in the state-of-the-art in the field. This can be provided only through building up and maturity of the Hydrogen Safety Engineering (H2SE) profession. H2SE is defined as an application of scientific and engineering principles to the protection of life, property and environment from adverse effects of incidents/accidents involving hydrogen. This paper describes a design framework and overviews a structure and contents of elementary design safety tool for carrying out H2SE. The approach is similar to British Standard BS7974 for application of fire safety engineering to the design of buildings and has been expanded to reflect on specific hydrogen safety related phenomena, including but not limited to high pressure under-expanded leaks and dispersion, spontaneous ignition of sudden hydrogen releases to air, deflagrations and detonations, etc. The H2SE process includes three main steps. Firstly, a qualitative design review is undertaken by a team that can include owner, hydrogen safety engineer, architect, representatives of authorities having jurisdiction, e.g. fire services, and other stakeholders. The team defines accident scenarios, suggests trial safety designs, and formulates acceptance criteria. Secondly, a quantitative safety analysis of selected scenarios and trial designs is carried out by qualified hydrogen safety engineer(s) using the state-of-the-art knowledge in hydrogen safety science and engineering, and validated models and tools. Finally, the performance of trial safety designs of H2FC system and/or infrastructure is assessed against acceptance criteria predefined by the team. This performance-based methodology offers the flexibility to assess trial safety designs using separately or simultaneously three approaches: deterministic, comparative or probabilistic.     

Data requirements for improving the Quantitative Risk Assessment of liquid hydrogen storage systems

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) supports the development of risk-informed safety codes and standards which are employed to enable the safe deployment of hydrogen technologies essential to decarbonize the transportation sector. System reliability data is a necessary input for rigorous QRA. The lack of reliability data for bulk liquid hydrogen (LH₂) storage systems located on site at fueling stations limits the use of QRAs. In turn, this hinders the ability to develop the necessary safety codes and standards that enable worldwide deployment of these stations. Through a QRA-based analysis of a LH₂ storage system, this work focuses on identifying relevant scenario and probability data currently available and ascertaining future data collection requirements regarding risks specific to liquid hydrogen releases. The work developed consists of the analysis of a general bulk LH₂ storage system design located at a hydrogen fueling station. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and traditional QRA modeling tools such as Event Sequence Diagrams (ESD) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) are employed to identify, rank, and model risk scenarios related to the release of LH₂. Based on this analysis, scenario and reliability data needs to add LH₂-related components to QRA are identified with the purpose of improving the future safety and risk assessment of these systems.     

Advancing the hydrogen safety knowledge base

The International Energy Agency's Hydrogen Implementing Agreement (IEA HIA) was established in 1977 to pursue collaborative hydrogen research and development and information exchange among its member countries. Information and knowledge dissemination is a key aspect of the work within IEA HIA tasks, and case studies, technical reports and presentations/publications often result from the collaborative efforts. The work conducted in hydrogen safety under Task 31 and its predecessor, Task 19, can positively impact the objectives of national programs even in cases for which a specific task report is not published. The interactions within Task 31 illustrate how technology information and knowledge exchange among participating hydrogen safety experts serve the objectives intended by the IEA HIA.     

Consequence analysis and safety verification of hydrogen fueling stations using CFD simulation

Now that environmental awareness is enhanced on a global basis, great hopes are placed on the expanded use of hydrogen stations and fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs) that economize hydrogen energy. Hydrogen stations must be safe and secure because they store large quantities of hydrogen under higher pressure than the hydrogen actually consumed by FCVs. Thus, multiple safety measures are taken to ensure that hydrogen does not leak from the stations. Furthermore, in the unlikely event of leakage, the damage needs to be kept on an allowable level. For this reason, it is necessary to understand the behavior of hydrogen gas leaking from the stations.     

A quantitative risk assessment of a domestic property connected to a hydrogen distribution network

The increased reliance on natural gas for heating worldwide makes the search for carbon-free alternatives imperative, especially if international decarbonisation targets are to be met. Hydrogen does not release carbon dioxide (CO₂) at the point of use which makes it an appealing candidate to decarbonise domestic heating. Hydrogen can be produced from either 1) the electrolysis of water with no associated carbon emissions, or 2) from methane reformation (using steam) which produces CO₂, but which is easily captured and storable during production. Hydrogen could be transported to the end-user via gas distribution networks similar to, and adapted from, those in use today. This would reduce both installation costs and end-user disruption. However, before hydrogen can provide domestic heat, it is necessary to assess the ‘risk’ associated with its distribution in direct comparison to natural gas. Here we develop a comprehensive and multi-faceted quantitative risk assessment tool to assess the difference in ‘risk’ between current natural gas distribution networks, and the potential conversion to a hydrogen based system. The approach uses novel experimental and modelling work, scientific literature, and findings from historic large scale testing programmes. As a case study, the risk assessment tool is applied to the newly proposed H100 demonstration (100% hydrogen network) project. The assessment includes the comparative risk of gas releases both upstream and downstream of the domestic gas meter. This research finds that the risk associated with the proposed H100 network (based on its current design) is lower than that of the existing natural gas network by a factor 0.88.     

Trade-off study between risk and benefit in safety devices for hydrogen refueling stations using a dynamic physical model

As hydrogen refueling stations become increasingly common, it is clear that a high level of economic efficiency and safety is crucial to promoting their use. One way to reduce costs is to use a simple orifice instead of an excess flow valve, which Japanese safety regulations have identified as a safety device. However, there is concern about its effect on refueling time and on risk due to hydrogen leakage. To clarify the effect, we did a study of model-based refueling time evaluation and quantitative risk assessment for a typical refueling station. This study showed that an orifice is an effective alternative safety device. The increase in refueling time was less than 10%, based on simulations using a dynamic physical model of the station. Neither was there a significant difference in the risk between a configuration with excess flow valves and one with an orifice.     

Development of uniform harm criteria for use in quantitative risk analysis of the hydrogen infrastructure

This paper discusses the preliminary results of the Risk Management subtask efforts within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Hydrogen Implementing Agreement (HIA) Task 19 on Hydrogen Safety to develop uniform harm criteria for use in the Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRAs) of hydrogen facilities. The IEA HIA Task 19 efforts are focused on developing guidelines and criteria for performing QRAs of hydrogen facilities. The performance of QRAs requires that the level of harm that is represented in the risk evaluation be established using deterministic models. The level of harm is a function of the type and level of hazard. The principle hazard associated with hydrogen facilities is uncontrolled accumulation of hydrogen in (semi) confined spaces and consecutive ignition. Another significant hazard is combustion of accidentally released hydrogen gas or liquid, which may or may not happen instantaneously. The primary consequences from fire hazards consist of personnel injuries or fatalities, or facility and equipment damage due to high air temperatures, radiant heat fluxes, or direct contact with hydrogen flames. The possible consequences of explosions on humans and structures or equipment include blast wave overpressure effects, impact from fragments generated by the explosion, the collapse of buildings, and the heat effects from subsequent fire balls. A harm criterion is used to translate the consequences of an accident, evaluated from deterministic models, to a probability of harm to people, structures, or components. Different methods can be used to establish harm criteria including the use of threshold consequence levels and continuous functions that relate the level of a hazard to a probability of damage. This paper presents a survey of harm criteria that can be utilized in QRAs and makes recommendations on the criteria that should be utilized for hydrogen-related hazards.     

Quantitative risk assessment of the interior of a hydrogen refueling station considering safety barrier systems

A quantitative risk assessment of human life during the operation of a hydrogen refueling station (HRS) is conducted. We calculate the risks for three accident scenarios: a hydrogen leak from the external piping surrounding a dispenser, a hydrogen leak from an accumulator connection piping and a hydrogen leak from a compressor/connection piping in the HRS. We first calculate the probability of accident by multiplying the estimated leak frequency with the incident occurrence probability considering the ignition probability and failure probability of the safety barrier systems obtained through event tree analysis for each scenario. We next simulate the blast and flame effects of the ignition of concentration fields formed by hydrogen leakage. We then use existing probit functions to estimate the consequences of eardrum rupture, fatalities due to displacement by the blast wave, fatalities due to head injuries, first-degree burns, second-degree burns, and fatal burn injuries by accident scenario, leak size, and incident event, and we estimate the risk distribution in 1-m cells. We finally assess the risk reduction effects of barrier placement and the distance to the dispenser and quantify the risk level that HRSs can achieve under existing law. Quantitative risk assessment reveals that the risk for a leak near the dispenser is less than 10⁻⁶ per year outside a distance of 6 m to the dispenser. The risk for a leak near the accumulators and compressors exceeds 10⁻⁴ per year within a distance of 10 m from the ignition point. A separation of 6 m to the dispenser and a barrier height of 3 m keep the fatal risk from burns to the workers, consumers and residents and passersby below the acceptable level of risk. Our results therefore show that current laws sufficiently mitigate the risks posed by HRSs and open up the possibility for a regulatory review.     

Risk assessment methodology for onboard hydrogen storage

A quantitative risk assessment of onboard hydrogen-powered vehicle storage, exposed to a fire, is performed. The risk is defined twofold as a cost of human life per vehicle fire, and annual fatality rate per vehicle. The increase of fire resistance rating of the storage tank is demonstrated to drastically reduce the risk to acceptable level. Hazard distances are calculated by validated engineering tools for blast wave and fireball, which follow catastrophic tank rupture in a fire, act in all directions and have larger hazard distances compared to jet fire. The fatality cash value, probabilities of vehicle fire and failure of thermally activated pressure relief device are taken from published sources. A vulnerability probit function is employed to calculate probability of emergency operations' failure to control fire and prevent tank rupture. The risk is presented as a function of fire resistance rating of onboard storage.     

Integrating safety and economics in designing a steam methane reforming process

The recent explosion at a steam reforming facility producing hydrogen in California, U.S., suggests the need to revisit the design of the traditional steam methane reforming (SMR) process from a safety perspective to further enable the growth of the hydrogen economy. Specifically, it is important to analyze the interaction between process, economic and safety variables within the SMR process through an integrated model approach to maintain positive economics of hydrogen production while making the process safer. The integrated model described within this study consists of process synthesis, quantitative risk assessment and economic analysis sub-models facilitating a holistic design for the SMR process. The usefulness of the integrated model is demonstrated by evaluating alternatives based on the inherently safer design philosophy. For the considered base design, it was found that decreasing the pressure of purge gas exiting the purge gas compressor leads to a reduction in the jet-fire axial risk distance of purge gas with minor economic benefits. Also, increasing the temperature of syngas entering the condensation unit leads to a reduction in the jet-fire axial risk distance for both purge gas and syngas with slight decrease in process economics.     

Quantitative risk assessment using a Japanese hydrogen refueling station model

Although hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are becoming widespread across Japan and are essential for the operation of fuel cell vehicles, they present potential hazards. A large number of accidents such as explosions or fires have been reported, rendering it necessary to conduct a number of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments for HRSs. Current safety codes and technical standards related to Japanese HRSs have been established based on the results of a qualitative risk assessment and quantitative effectiveness validation of safety measures over ten years ago. In the last decade, there has been much development in the technologies of the components or facilities used in domestic HRSs and much operational experience as well as knowledge to use hydrogen in HRSs safely have been gained through years of commercial operation. The purpose of the present study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the latest HRS model representing Japanese HRSs with the most current information and to identify the most significant scenarios that pose the greatest risks to the physical surroundings in the HRS model. The results of the QRA show that the risk contours of 10^?3 and 10^?4 per year were confined within the HRS boundaries, whereas the risk contours of 10^?5 and 10^?6 per year are still present outside the HRS. Comparing the breakdown of the individual risks (IRs) at the risk ranking points, we conclude that the risk of jet fire demonstrates the highest contribution to the risks at all of the risk ranking points and outside the station. To reduce these risks and confine the risk contour of 10^?6 per year within the HRS boundaries, it is necessary to consider risk mitigation measures for jet fires.     

Review and analysis of the hydrogen production technologies from a safety perspective

Hydrogen can be produced via many different technologies; however, from a safety standpoint there exists no framework for selecting the right technology. Here, we provide a structured framework for assessment of the most desirable hydrogen production technology based on efficiency, safety, and infrastructure, by using a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) integrated Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and life-cycle index (LInX) approach. We apply this modified MCDM approach to steam methane reforming (SMR), autothermal reforming, partial oxidation, alkaline electrolysis, polymer electrode membrane electrolysis, and solid oxide electrolyzer cell processes. Our results show that SMR is the most desirable technology based on the efficiency, safety, and infrastructure criteria. We employ fuzzy set theory to address subjectivity and uncertainty challenges in the data and found that although the technologies based on electrolysis have an environmental advantage, they exhibit higher uncertainties than non-renewable technologies such as SMR. Overall, this new framework addresses the challenge to find the most desirable and safer technology for hydrogen production.     

Developments in gas sensor technology for hydrogen safety

Gas sensors are applied for facilitating the safe use of hydrogen in, for example, fuel cell and hydrogen fuelled vehicles. New sensor developments, aimed at meeting the increasingly stringent performance requirements in emerging applications, are reviewed. The strategy of combining different detection principles, i.e. sensors based on electrochemical cells, semiconductors or field effects in combination with thermal conductivity sensing or catalytic combustion elements, in one new measuring system is reported. This extends the dynamic measuring range of the sensor while improving sensor reliability to achieve higher safety integrity through diverse redundancy. The application of new nanoscaled materials, nanowires, carbon tubes and graphene as well as the improvements in electronic components and optical elements are evaluated in view of key operating parameters such as measuring range, sensor response time and low working temperature.     

Hydrogen storage and delivery: Review of the state of the art technologies and risk and reliability analysis

Among all introduced green alternatives, hydrogen, due to its abundance and diverse production sources is becoming an increasingly viable clean and green option for transportation and energy storage. Governments are considerably funding relevant researches and the public is beginning to talk about hydrogen as a possible future fuel. Hydrogen production, storage, delivery, and utilization are the key parts of the Hydrogen Economy (HE). In this paper, hydrogen storage and delivery options are discussed thoroughly. Then, since safety and reliability of hydrogen infrastructure is a necessary enabling condition for public acceptance of these technologies and any major accident involving hydrogen can be difficult to neutralize, we review the main existing safety and reliability challenges in hydrogen systems. The current state of the art in safety and reliability analysis for hydrogen storage and delivery technologies is discussed, and recommendations are mentioned to help providing a foundation for future risk and reliability analysis to support safe, reliable operation.     

Quantitative risk assessment on 2010 Expo hydrogen station

This paper presents a QRA study on a gaseous hydrogen refueling station of 2010 World Expo. Risks to station personnel, to refueling customers and to third parties are evaluated respectively. Uncertainties that intervene in the risk analysis are also discussed. The results show that the leaks from compressors and dispensers are the main risk contributors to first party and second party risks of the Expo station, indicating that risk mitigation measures should in the first place be implemented on compressors and dispensers. For the sake of the safety of station personnel, customers, and people outside the Expo station, additional safety barrier systems must be implemented on compressors and dispensers to prevent continuous release of hydrogen from happening. With appropriate mitigation measures on compressors and dispensers, risks to all three parties of the Expo station can be reduced to the value lower than the risk acceptance criteria.     

A comparative techno-economic and quantitative risk analysis of hydrogen delivery infrastructure options

The comparative techno-economic analysis and quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of the hydrogen delivery infrastructure covering the national hydrogen demands are presented to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the infrastructure of commercial hydrogen delivery. The cost calculation model, which was based on the hydrogen delivery scenario analysis model (HDSAM), was employed to estimate the costs of hydrogen fuel delivery in Seoul, Korea, whose area is small enough to not require intermediate delivery stations. The QRA methodology was modified to be suitable for the comparative analysis of the whole hydrogen infrastructure. The capacities of a hydrogen refueling station and the hydrogen market penetration were employed as the main variables and the two scenarios, viz. the gaseous and liquid hydrogen delivery options, were considered. The analysis results indicate that the delivery system of gaseous hydrogen was superior in terms of cost and that of liquid hydrogen was superior in terms of safety. Both delivery options were affected by the capacity of the station and the market penetration, and the cost and risk drastically changed, especially when the two variables were small. Thus, according to the results, the economic and safety issues of the hydrogen delivery infrastructure are critical to achieving a hydrogen energy society.