Does renewable energy substitute LNG international trade in the energy transition?

Renewable energy is a vital tool for the energy transition and sustainable development goals. The global economy, however, remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels despite efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. Demand for natural gas is rising as a bridge for moving towards a low-carbon economy, but whether natural gas and renewable energy represent substitutes in the global energy mix remains underexplored. We tackle this concern by examining the impact of renewable policies on international trade in liquified natural gas (LNG) among 1359 trading partners during the period 1988–2017. We measure renewable energy policies based on the ratio of renewable energy to total energy usage in importing trading partners, which also corresponds to a proxy for energy transition policies. The analysis is conducted using a global panel dataset in a trade gravity framework by applying various econometric methods and model specifications to measure LNG trade as a dependent variable. The results show that the energy transition, measured by the share of renewable energy, has a negative impact on LNG trade. This suggests that investing in cleaner energy technologies can reduce LNG trade globally, as a channel towards reducing natural gas demand. The results are consistent with the narrative where natural gas and renewable energy represent partial substitutes at the global level. However, subgroup analysis suggests that less-developed economies and the shale revolution period seem to impede progress towards the energy transition.     

日本地震对世界和我国液化天然气产业的影响

2011年3月,日本东北部太平洋海域发生大地震和海啸,导致日本大批发电机组受损,引发福岛核泄漏事故,对世界和我国液化天然气(LNG)产业的发展产生了深远的影响。短期来看,多家日本电力公司大量采购LNG弥补电力缺口,短期和现货LNG市场趋紧,价格上涨;长期来看,福岛核泄漏事故对世界各国的核电规划与发展造成影响,世界LNG潜在需求增加,长期LNG资源的价格博弈愈加激烈。LNG作为我国天然气供应的重要组成部分,对调整我国能源消费结构、实现我国碳减排目标、保障我国沿海地区天然气安全稳定供应意义重大。当前世界LNG市场形势复杂多变,建议继续密切跟踪国内外形势变化,及时调整资源合作与开发策略,实现我国液化天然气产业的可持续发展。     

Hydrogen strategy in decarbonization era: Egypt as a case study

The quest for a low-carbon energy transition has grown in recent years as concerns about the effects of climate change have grown. In this context, several governments around the world are concerned about hydrogen's possible role in a decarbonized energy system. As a result, this paper will provide a high-level overview of the hydrogen value chain, as well as an analysis of current and emerging trends in the global hydrogen market, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which are considered the cornerstone of the current global energy system traditional fossil fuel. Egypt, as a case study, could instruct other emerging countries in general, and natural gas suppliers in particular, how to maximize gains by switching from current imports to blue hydrogen made from natural gas. Policymakers who are responsible for Egypt's national hydrogen strategy should focus on global energy insights, international experience, and natural gas-sourced blue hydrogen as a step to renewables-sourced green hydrogen.     

Green hydrogen standard in China: Standard and evaluation of low-carbon hydrogen,clean hydrogen,and renewable hydrogen

With the proposal of carbon neutral goals in various countries, the deepening of global action on climate change and the acceleration of green economy recovery in the post epidemic era, building a low-carbon and clean hydrogen supply system has gradually become a global consensus. In order to promote the development of clean hydrogen market, the standards of green hydrogen have been discussed at global level. The quantitative definition of different hydrogen production methods based on the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission of life cycle assessment (LCA) methods is gradually recognised by the industry. China issued the “Standard and evaluation of low-carbon hydrogen, clean hydrogen and renewable hydrogen” in December 2020. This is the first formal green hydrogen standard worldwide, which provides calculation methods for GHG of different hydrogen production paths. This chapter discusses the major green hydrogen standards initiative in the world, analyses the key factors of the global green hydrogen standard, and introduces how to establish the quantitative standards and evaluation system of low-carbon hydrogen, clean hydrogen, and renewable hydrogen by using the method in China.     

Economics of U.S. natural gas exports: Should regulators limit U.S. LNG exports?

This study assesses the level and destination of U.S. LNG exports, using a global natural market model under a wide range of EMF 31 scenarios. The scenarios reflect different U.S. natural gas resource outlooks, market conditions, changing U.S. environmental regulations, and possible changes in geopolitical conditions that affect the global natural gas demand and supply. U.S. LNG exports respond to market conditions under each scenario and are free from any artificial limits. In the near-term, U.S. LNG exports are uncompetitive in the Reference case and in the long-run U.S. LNG exports are significant when U.S. natural gas resources are plentiful. However under demand shocks (increase demand in Asia) or supply shocks (reduction in Russian supplies) or persistence of oil-indexed pricing cases, U.S. LNG exports become competitive to varying degrees. U.S. exports depend not only on U.S. economics but also on how U.S. prices change relative to price changes in other regions of the world. We conclude that limiting U.S. LNG exports is inconsistent with simulated uncertainties, and it should be left to the market to determine the levels and destination of exports.     

Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective

An unceasing growth of gas consumption in domestic households, industry, and power plants has gradually turned natural gas into a major source of energy. Main drivers in this development are the technical and economic advantages of natural gas. It is a clean, versatile, and easily controllable fuel. On this basis, natural gas is often considered the form of energy that will be the “bridging fuel” to a sustainable energy system, sometime after 2050. Unlike other main sources of energy, such as oil and coal, gas is not traded on an actual world market. This paper provides an overview on demand and supplies of natural gas (LNG) in the past as a function of gas prices, gas technology (gas sweetening, liquefaction, shipping and re-gasification), and gas market and how they have changed recently. It also discusses the likely developments in global LNG demand for the period to the year 2030.     

LNG汽车发展现状及相关问题分析

近两年我国LNG汽车实现了快速发展,本文介绍了我国LNG汽车产业发展现状,分析了LNG汽车的特点及发展优势,并综合我国LNG汽车产业目前发展面临的问题及未来发展的不确定因素,结合我国宏观经济形势及天然气行业发展趋势,分析了LNG汽车产业的发展趋势。     

The economic impact of price controls on China's natural gas supply chain

Despite significant progress made by China in liberalizing its natural gas market, certain key areas such as market access and pricing mechanisms remain controlled by the government. To assess how such distortions impact the market, we have developed a Mixed Complementarity Problem model of China's natural gas industry, with a novel representation of price caps associated with supply obligations. The model is used to assess how government pricing policies and restricted third party access to midstream infrastructure impacted the supply logistics of China's profit maximizing natural gas firms in the year 2015. We find that lifting the price caps for regulated natural gas demand sectors could yield a 4.7% (1.4 billion USD) reduction in total system cost and reduce the national average of marginal supply costs by 14%. Improving third party access to the pipeline and regasification infrastructure would result in an additive total cost saving of 7.6% (2.2 billion USD) and a 16% reduction in average prices, due to replacing domestic and imported LNG with pipeline imports. The LNG industry would be negatively affected by the reforms investigated in this study, as market players would gain more flexibility in their logistics and would utilize lower cost supply pathways.     

The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe,the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market—Model-based analysis until 2030

Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions’ favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries.     

A market potential and economical aspects of a future hydrogen supply for the F.R.G.

Based on a scenario for energetic and non-energetic demand in the F.R.G. up to the year 2030, we calculated potentials for non-fossil-made hydrogen to substitute or support hydrocarbons such as oil products and natural gas. The potential demand of hydrogen as a raw material was found to be about 20 MTCE in 2030. The market would be in chemistry, fuel production and iron and steel industry. The potential for hydrogen as an energy carrier is roughly three times higher. An investigation of the growth of utility capacity showed that after the year 1995 nuclear plants could also be introduced for medium load electricity production. The use of these plants for off-peak electrolysis would give rise to hydrogen production sufficient to cover the potential demand of hydrogen as a raw material. This off-peak hydrogen can be produced economically compared to natural gas even at today's level of energy costs. With a real increase of prices for imported hydrocarbons in the order of 1–3%/y, other nuclear technologies for additional hydrogen production (for example thermochemical processes) might reach an economical breakeven point at the beginning of the next century. Installation of nuclear power for this purpose could supply the energy market with 20 MTCE of hydrogen in 2030. This hydrogen could be mixed with the natural gas and transported in the network already existing for gas distribution with only moderate modifications on network and burners.     

Optimizing hybrid offshore wind farms for cost-competitive hydrogen production in Germany

Nearly 96% of the world's current hydrogen production comes from fossil-fuel-based sources, contributing to global greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen is often discussed as a critical lever in decarbonizing future power systems. Producing hydrogen using unsold offshore wind electricity may offer a low-carbon production pathway and emerging business model. This study investigates whether participating in an ancillary service market is cost competitive for offshore wind-based hydrogen production. It also determines the optimal size of a hydrogen electrolyser relative to an offshore wind farm. Two flexibility strategies for offshore wind farms are developed in this study: an optimal bidding strategy into ancillary service markets for offshore wind farms that build hydrogen production facilities and optimal sizing of Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH) facilities at wind farms. Using empirical European power market and wind generation data, the study finds that offshore-wind based hydrogen must participate in ancillary service markets to generate net positive revenues at current levels of wind generation to become cost competitive in Germany. The estimated carbon abatement cost of “green” hydrogen ranges between 187 EUR/tonCO₂e and 265 EUR/tonCO₂e. Allowing hydrogen producers to receive similar subsidies as offshore wind farms that produce only electricity could facilitate further cost reduction. Utilizing excess and intermittent offshore wind highlights one possible pathway that could achieve increasing returns on greenhouse gas emission reductions due to technological learning in hydrogen production, even under conditions where low power prices make offshore wind less competitive in the European electricity market.     

Adapting the French nuclear fleet to integrate variable renewable energies via the production of hydrogen: Towards massive production of low carbon hydrogen?

Producing low-carbon hydrogen at a competitive rate is becoming a new challenge with respect to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We examine this issue in the French context, which is characterised by a high nuclear share and the target to increase variable renewables by 2050. The goal is to evaluate the extent to which excess nuclear power could contribute to producing low-carbon hydrogen.Our approach involves designing scenarios for nuclear and renewables, modelling and evaluating the potential nuclear hydrogen production volumes and costs, examining the latter through the scope of hydrogen market attractiveness and evaluating the potential of CO₂ mitigation.This article shows that as renewable shares increase, along with the hydrogen market expected growth driven by mobility uses, opportunities are created for the nuclear operator. If nuclear capacities are maintained, nuclear hydrogen production could correspond to the demand by 2030. If not, possibilities could still exist by 2050.     

LNG as a strategy to establish developing countries’ gas markets: The Brazilian case

This paper aims to evaluate, from a Brazilian case study, if the natural gas trade can be viewed as a good opportunity for developing countries located geographically close to Western Europe and North America gas markets. Initially, the paper presents an overview of the Brazilian natural gas industry and evaluates the balance between supply and demand in each main region of Brazil. Then, it analyzes the evolution of the international gas trade, which is expected to increase rapidly (LNG particularly). Finally, the paper analyses the financial viability of the Brazilian LNG project in a context of high volatility of natural gas prices in the international market. To take this uncertainty into account, North-American natural gas prices are modelled according to the ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK process (with EIA data over the period 1985–2003). By using an approach based on Monte-Carlo simulations and under the assumption that imports are guaranteed since the North American gas price would be higher than the breakeven of the Brazilian project, the model aims to test the hypothesis that export can promote the development of the Brazilian Northeastern gas market. LNG project is here compared to the Petrobras pipelines project, which is considered as the immediate solution for the Northeastern gas shortage. As a conclusion, this study shows that the LNG export will be vulnerable to the risks associated to the natural gas prices volatility observed on the international market.     

Gas-on-gas competition in Shanghai

In common with other major economic centres in China, Shanghai's energy consumption has been increasing rapidly to support the high growth rate of its economy. To achieve rational, efficient and clean use of energy, together with improved environmental quality within the city, the Shanghai municipal government has decided to expand the supply and utilization of natural gas. Shanghai plans to increase the share of natural gas in its primary energy mix to 7 per cent by 2010, up from 3 per cent in 2005. This increase in natural gas demand has to be matched with a corresponding increase in supply. To date, the Shanghai region has relied on offshore extracted natural gas but this supply is limited due to the size of the reserves. Since 2005, the West–East pipeline has provided an alternative for Shanghai but demands from other regions could reduce the potential for expanding supplies from that source. Since domestic production will not be sufficient to meet demand in the near future, Shanghai is building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification terminal at the Yangshan deep-water port that would allow an additional supply of more than 3 billion cubic meters per year of natural gas. Malaysia has already committed to supply LNG to the Shanghai terminal at a price that is significantly higher than the wholesale “city-gate” price for natural gas transported via pipeline, but still lower than the gas price to end-use consumers. The presence of both an LNG terminal and a transmission pipeline that connects Shanghai to domestic gas-producing regions will create gas-on-gas competition. This study assesses the benefits of introducing such competition to one of China's most advanced cities under various scenarios for demand growth. In this paper, the impact of imported LNG on market concentration in Shanghai's gas market will be analysed using the Herfindahl–Hirschmann index (HHI) and the residual supply index (RSI). Our results show that Shanghai remains a supply-constrained gas market that will continue to rely upon gas supplies from the western provinces and imported LNG. After 2017, the gas market in Shanghai can be regarded as unconcentrated since its HHI fall below 1800 under a very high growth scenario. In terms of RSI, the gas market can be considered competitive at low, moderate and high growth consumption between 2012 and 2015.     

A green hydrogen credit framework for international green hydrogen trading towards a carbon neutral future

Hydrogen as a low-carbon clean energy source is experiencing a global resurgence and has been recognized as an alternative energy carrier that can help bring the world to a carbon neutral future. However, getting to scale is one of the main challenges limiting the growth of the hydrogen economy. In particular, the high cost of transporting green hydrogen is bottlenecking the international trading and wider adoption of hydrogen for global carbon natural objectives. In order to explore incentives for the global hydrogen economy and develop new pathways towards the carbon neutral future, the concept of hydrogen credit is proposed by this research and a framework of trading hydrogen credits similar to carbon credits in the international market is established. This research aims to contribute to the overall uptake of green hydrogen financially rather than relying on the physical production, transportation, and storage of hydrogen. Case studies are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed hydrogen credit framework, as well as the great potential of a global hydrogen credit market.     

LNG应急储备中心气化设备的配置及优化应用

目的  LNG（液化天然气,Liquefied Natural Gas）储备中心气化区工艺设备运用的技术分析与调研,是为解决西安引镇LNG应急中心气化区单一空温气化器编组运行结霜结冰问题而展开。 方法  内地在用的LNG气化技术主要有空温式与水浴式气化两种形式,空温式气化器在大负荷与低温季节运行时,设备周边易起浓雾,外表常会结霜结冰,水浴式气化器则无此现象。通过调研比较近年各地LNG储备中心以及沿海LNG接收站等各类场站气化工艺区气化设备的运行情况,工程上采用独立的LNG水浴式气化器能够实现设备外表无霜冰雾的气化生产;利用水浴式气化器与空温式气化器组合系统联合优化LNG的气化运行,既可获取利用空气蕴含的热能进行LNG气化生产,也能消除低温起雾及冰霜对LNG气化生产的影响。 结果  内地大储存量液化天然气的气化工艺,能够不受低温影响,顺畅完成气化过程的生产。 结论  构建绿色能源体系,基于新型能源网络的形成,高效能源输配与储存转换技术以及天然气与风光水氢等气电再生清洁能源的融合互补发展,完善的储能工程与技术具有重要支撑作用,大型LNG气化技术的优化是一项重要的工程实践。     

世界天然气格局的变化和中国的机遇

近年来世界天然气产、销和国际贸易格局发生了重大变化。在经济衰退的影响下,2009年世界天然气年产量和消费量出现2.41%和2.34%的下降;但国际贸易量却持续增长,2007～2009年年均增长率6.28%,其中LNG贸易有更快的发展,其灵活的销售策略和降低现货价在许多地区挤占了管输出口的市场份额。在经济衰退的恢复期和/或天然气供应充足或过剩时期气与煤的比价较为接近,这为气代煤创造了条件。新兴经济体,特别是中国、印度及周围的东亚、南亚地区占世界天然气消费量的份额日趋加大。1999～2009年的10年间,中国天然气产量、消费量年均增长率分别为12.95%和13.91%,印度分别为4.59%和7.53%。金融危机促进了世界经济中心向东亚转移,天然气发展更趋均衡、多中心化的进程将更快。亚太地区,特别是中国、印度的天然气生产、消费和国际贸易在今后也将获得更快的发展。页岩气产量的持续快速增长不仅影响着近年来的天然气国际贸易,亦将对世界天然气格局产生更深远的影响。这些为中国天然气大发展带来了新机遇。按照框架性预测的两个方案,预计2015年中国天然气消费量将分别约为2400×108m3和2500×108m3,需国内供应皆为1500×108m3,进口分别为900×108m3和1000×108m3。2015年国内常规气层气产量要达到1300×108m3或1350×108m3,两种情况下所对应的2010～2015年年均增长率分别为9.81%和9.12%。除管输进口以外,2015年需要有600×108～800×108m3的LNG进口。从国内对策来讲,除了加强勘探开发,特别要关注天然气上中下游的协调发展和LNG系统工程的提前部署。关于进口,应重视天然气进口的广义多元化,在进口采买中将多种长期合同、意向性协议和短期现货交易灵活结合起来;加强国际合作;建设完整的配套体系。     

Hydrogen and LNG production from coke oven gas with multi-stage helium expansion refrigeration

Here we propose a novel cryogenic system to simultaneously produce liquid hydrogen (LH₂) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from coke oven gas. The coke oven gas, simplified as a mixture of methane and hydrogen, directly enters the cryogenic system. Due to the very low temperature of liquid hydrogen, helium is selected as the refrigerant, and the energy needed for the liquefaction is supplied by a multi-stage helium expansion refrigeration system. The high-purity liquid hydrogen and LNG products are obtained with the help of a cryogenic distillation column. The whole cryogenic process is simulated with the Aspen HYSYS software to determine the parameters of each process point and key component. We found that the process is able to produce LH₂ and LNG of very high purity. Using the power consumption of the product liquefaction as the major performance parameter for the analysis, optimum parameters of the multi-stage helium expansion liquefaction process could be found. The results show that the proposed system can achieve a methane recovery rate of 97.9% and a hydrogen recovery rate of 99.7% with acceptable energy consumption.     

采用燃气—蒸汽联合循环冷热电三联供能源系统在焦炉煤气制液化天然气工厂的应用研究

日益恶化的全球环境问题,要求中国天然气消费与生产保持高速增长,资源的特征决定了须从多种渠道解决天然气来源问题,焦炉煤气制液化天然气作为煤制天然气的一个路线,也将逐步地成为一个新兴的行业而快速成长与发展,国家已将此技术列入了近年重点示范推广的关键技术。在这个生产过程中冷热电能消耗都比较大,本文研究的是运用燃气轮机,进行燃气—蒸汽联合循环,实现"冷热电"三联供的典型分布式能源系统,使系统的循环效率从22～23%提高到40%以上。