Environmental predictors of phytoplankton chlorophyll-a in Great Lakes coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes are diverse and productive ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services, but are threatened by anthropogenic factors, including nutrient input, land-use change, invasive species, and climate change. In this study, we examined one component of wetland ecosystem structure – phytoplankton biomass – using the proxy metric of water column chlorophyll-a measured in 514 coastal wetlands across all five Great Lakes as part of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Monitoring Program. Mean chlorophyll-a concentrations increased from north-to-south from Lake Superior to Lake Erie, but concentrations varied among sites within lakes. To predict chlorophyll-a concentrations, we developed two random forest models for each lake – one using variables that may directly relate to phytoplankton biomass (“proximate” variables; e.g., dissolved nutrients, temperature, pH) and another using variables with potentially indirect effects on phytoplankton growth (“distal” variables; e.g., land use, fetch). Proximate and distal variable models explained 16–43% and 19–48% of variation in chlorophyll-a, respectively, with models developed for lakes Erie and Michigan having the highest amount of explanatory power and models developed for lakes Ontario, Superior, and Huron having the lowest. Land-use variables were important distal predictors of chlorophyll-a concentrations across all lakes. We found multiple proximate predictors of chlorophyll-a, but there was little consistency among lakes, suggesting that, while chlorophyll-a may be broadly influenced by distal factors such as land use, individual lakes and wetlands have unique characteristics that affect chlorophyll-a concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of responsible land-use planning and watershed-level management for protecting coastal wetlands.     

Researcher disciplines and the assessment techniques used to evaluate Laurentian Great Lakes coastal ecosystems

The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America have been a focus of environmental and ecosystem research since the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement in 1972. This study provides a review of scientific literature directed at the assessment of Laurentian Great Lakes coastal ecosystems. Our aim was to understand the methods employed to quantify disturbance and ecosystem quality within Laurentian Great Lakes coastal ecosystems within the last 20 years. We focused specifically on evidence of multidisciplinary articles, in authorship or types of assessment parameters used. We sought to uncover: 1) where Laurentian Great Lakes coastal ecosystems are investigated, 2) how patterns in the disciplines of researchers have shifted over time, 3) how measured parameters differed among disciplines, and 4) which parameters were used most often. Results indicate research was conducted almost evenly across the five Laurentian Great Lakes and that publication of coastal ecosystems studies increased dramatically ten years after the first State of the Great Lakes Ecosystem Conference in 1994. Research authored by environmental scientists and by multiple disciplines (multidisciplinary) have become more prevalent since 2003. This study supports the likelihood that communication and knowledge-sharing is happening between disciplines on some level. Multidisciplinary or environmental science articles were the most inclusive of parameters from different disciplines, but every discipline seemed to include chemical parameters less often than biota, physical, and spatial parameters. There is a need for an increased understanding of minor nutrient, toxin, and heavy metal impacts and use of spatial metrics in Laurentian Great Lakes coastal ecosystems.     

Relative contributions of nearshore and wetland habitats to coastal food webs in the Great Lakes

Hydrologic linkages among coastal wetland and nearshore areas allow coastal fish to move among the habitats, which has led to a variety of habitat use patterns. We determined nutritional support of coastal fishes from 12 wetland-nearshore habitat pairs using stable isotope analyses, which revealed differences among species and systems in multi-habitat use. Substantial (proportions?>?0.30) nutrition often came from the habitat other than that in which fish were captured. Nearshore subsidies to coastal wetlands indicate wetlands are not exclusively exporters of energy and materials; rather, there is reciprocity in the mutual energetic support of nearshore and wetland food webs. Coastal wetland hydrogeomorphology influenced the amount of multi-habitat use by coastal fishes. Fishes from systems with relatively open interfaces between wetland and nearshore habitats exhibited less nutritional reliance on the habitat in which they were captured, and higher use of resources from the adjacent habitat. Comparisons of stable isotope analyses of nutrition with otolith analyses of occupancy indicated nutritional sources often corresponded with habitat occupancy; however, disparities among place of capture, otolith analyses, and nutritional analyses indicated differences in the types of support those analyses inform. Disparities between occupancy information and nutritional information can stem from movements for support functions other than foraging. Together, occupancy information from otolith microchemistry and nutritional information from stable isotope analyses provide complementary measures of the use of multiple habitats by mobile consumers. This work underscores the importance of protecting or restoring a diversity of coastal habitats and the hydrologic linkages among them.     

Invasive cattail reduces fish diversity and abundance in the emergent marsh of a Great Lakes coastal wetland

Great Lakes coastal wetlands (GLCWs) provide critical fish habitat. The invasion of GLCWs by hybrid and narrow-leaved cattail, Typha × glauca and Typha angustifolia (hereafter Typha), homogenizes wetlands by out-competing native plant species and producing copious litter. However, the effect of this invasion on fish communities is little known. To measure the effect of Typha on fishes, we established plots in Typha invaded and native wetland emergent zones in a northern Lake Michigan coastal wetland, and measured environmental variables, plants, and fishes in each zone over two summers. Dissolved oxygen and water temperature were significantly lower in invaded compared to native plots. Invaded plots were dominated by Typha and its litter; whereas. sedges (Carex spp.) were the most abundant species in native plots. Fish abundance and species richness were significantly lower in Typha compared to native wetland plots. The Typha fish community was dominated by hypoxia tolerant mudminnow whereas other small, schooling, fusiform species such as cyprinids and fundulids were absent. These results illustrate the negative impact of a dominant invasive plant on Great Lakes fishes that is expected to be found in Typha invasions in other GLCWs.     

Enhancing Great Lakes coastal ecosystems research by initiating engagement between scientists and decision-makers

A disconnect between scientific research and environmental management communities can be a detriment to both. In the case of Great Lakes coastal ecosystems, which are inherently complex and subject to uncertain effects of future climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic drivers, greater collaboration could be beneficial to their sustainability. We capture the challenges and opportunities identified by a scientist/decision-maker co-production workshop focused on the future environmental quality of Great Lakes coastal wetlands. We explain our path through the stakeholder workshop process, our challenges in translating meeting outcomes into actionable items, and lessons learned to bridge gaps between scientists and decision-makers. Additionally, we determine topics and directions identified by decision-makers that can be modeled with existing technologies and others that require further research. These topics may be incorporated into future research efforts and could serve as a shortlist of research priorities that were identified by decision-makers working with coastal wetland issues. Based on lessons learned during and after the workshop, we provide suggestions for bridging the gap between researchers and decision-makers, including sustained engagement between these groups and improved interaction through the beginning, duration, and end of research and/or management efforts.     

Ecological data as a resource for invasive species management in U.S. Great Lakes coastal wetlands

The coordinated use of ecological data is critical to the proper management of invasive species in the coastal wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Researchers and government programs have been increasingly calling for the use of data in management activities to increase the likelihood of success and add transparency in decision making. Web-enabled databases have the potential to provide managers working in Great Lakes coastal wetlands with relevant data to support management decisions. To assess the potential value of these databases to managers in Laurentian Great Lakes states, we surveyed wetland managers to determine their current data usage as well as their future data interests and catalogued the online databases currently available. Surveys were disseminated via email to managers in 56 different organizations overseeing invasive species management efforts in Great Lakes coastal wetlands; 46 responses were included in this analysis. Of the survey respondents, all reported using raw biotic data for decision making, (i.e. presence of target species) but many indicated that they would prefer to incorporate a greater variety of data, as well as more complex information. Our survey found that managers used web-enabled databases, but most databases that we catalogued only provided presence data for wetland biota. We concluded that databases can provide the types of data sought by invasive species managers but have unmet potential to be integrated into responsive management processes.     

Great Lakes coastal wetlands as suitable habitat for invasive mute swans in Michigan

Great Lakes coastal wetlands provide critical habitat and food resources for more species than any other Great Lakes ecosystem. Due to past and current anthropogenic disturbances, coastal wetland area has been reduced by >50% while remaining habitat is frequently degraded. Invasive mute swans have contributed to the degradation of coastal wetlands by removing submergent vegetation and competitively excluding native species from breeding areas and food resources. Despite current control practices, mute swan population estimates in Michigan are ~8000, comparable to population estimates in the entire Atlantic Flyway of North America. We collected local abiotic data and adjacent land cover data at 3 scales from 51 sites during 2010 and 2011 and conducted 2 mute swan detection surveys each year during the summer and fall. We developed a single-species, single-season occupancy-based habitat suitability model to determine current and potential mute swan habitat among Great Lakes coastal wetlands. We found mute swans occupied heterotrophic coastal wetlands adjacent to urban areas, which were high in ammonium and oxidation-reduction potential and low in nitrates, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. Our model provides managers with a valuable tool for rapidly identifying mute swan habitat areas for control efforts, particularly the need for targeting mute swan populations in or near urbanized areas. Our model will also aid managers in monitoring areas that mute swans may invade and prioritizing coastal wetland areas for restoration efforts.     

Watershed and lake influences on the energetic base of coastal wetland food webs across the Great Lakes Basin

We examined factors that influence the energy base of Great Lakes coastal wetland food webs across a basin-wide gradient of landscape disturbance. Wetland nutrient concentrations were positively correlated with a principal components-based metric of agricultural practices. Hydraulic residence time influenced the energy base of wetland food webs, with high residence-time systems based mostly on plankton and low residence-time systems based mostly upon benthos. In systems with plankton, the importance of planktonic carbon to the resident fish community generally increased with residence time. A stronger relationship was apparent with an index of nutrient loading that combined residence time and nutrient concentration as the predictor (R² = 0.289, p = 0.026). Shifts toward plankton-based food webs occurred at relatively low levels of loading. In riverine wetlands without plankton, contributions of detrital carbon to fish communities decreased significantly in response to watershed disturbance that reflected nutrient loading. In a third class of wetlands the wetland-resident fish communities were not entirely supported by within-wetland carbon sources and were significantly subsidized by nearshore habitats, which provided 35 (± 22) to 73 (± 9) % of fish community carbon. When lake-run migrant fish were included in the analyses, nearshore subsidies to all 30 wetland food webs ranged from 3 (± 2) to 79 (± 12) %. We obtained similar ranges when examining nearshore contributions to a single wetland species, northern pike. These results illustrate the spatial scale and the degree to which the energetics of coastal wetland food webs are influenced by interactions with their watersheds and Great Lakes.     

The 2017 African Great Lakes Conference: Conservation and development in a changing climate

In May 2017, the African Great Lakes community convened for a region-wide conference in Entebbe, Uganda. The African Great Lakes Conference (AGLC) focused on 6 regionally-important themes, and 300+ attendees presented over 100 talks and posters. The AGLC culminated in the adoption of a set of Conference Resolutions designed to direct the future of African Great Lakes conservation and management. As an Introduction to this Journal of Great Lakes Research special section on African Great Lakes, we report on the impetus for the African Great Lakes Conference as well as discuss three major advances and investments that were a direct result of conference resolutions adopted at the meeting. First, we present the AGLC Resolutions, a set of management issues and solutions developed at the conference. Second, we discuss the African Great Lakes Conference Fund, a conservation fund that has awarded $500,000 USD to launch four new initiatives. Finally, we describe African Great Lakes Inform, a knowledge management platform designed to promote collaboration in the region. The AGLC in general, and these three major conference outcomes specifically, provide a set of basic building blocks to advance partnerships, research and capacity in the African Great Lakes region.     

An appraisal of policy implementation deficits in the Great Lakes

Understanding of the complexities of both public policy implementation and Great Lakes restoration has grown in sophistication since the 1970s. The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement is the principal policy for reversing environmental decline in the region. Implementation of this and related policies, particularly by the federal governments, suffers from acute and chronic deficits that we summarily document. These policy implementation deficits will continue to frustrate efforts to revitalize the Great Lakes unless significant advances are made to design governance processes within the Great Lakes regime that accommodate the complexity of linked social and ecological systems. The 2010-2011 governmental process to renegotiate the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement is a potent opportunity to begin to overcome institutional barriers to reducing policy deficits. We argue that the renegotiation must begin a reinvestment in remaking or reimagining Great Lakes institutions in a way that restores capacity, flexibility, and moral authority. Our purpose is to help provide a foundation for that discussion.     

Impacts on biodiversity and species changes in the lower Great Lakes

The Great Lakes basin ecosystem evolved after the retreat of the last ice sheet, about 10 000 years ago. Today, the complex of species present in the Great Lakes and much of the visible landscape bears little resemblance to that found some 400 years ago. Rather, the effects of various aspects of human development have caused major changes in the natural biodiversity. Lessons learned in the lower Great Lakes are applicable to many lakes around the world that have undergone agricultural, industrial and urban development in their drainage basins and have become managed, artificial ecosystems.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater in the Great Lakes Basin: A review

Climate change has the potential to alter the physical and chemical properties of water in the Great Lakes Basin, in turn impacting ecological function. This study synthesizes existing research associated with the potential effects of a changing climate on the quality and quantity of groundwater in the Great Lakes Basin. It includes analyses of impacts on (1) recharge, (2) groundwater storage, (3) discharge and groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions, (4) exacerbating future urban development impacts on groundwater, (5) groundwater quality, and (6) ecohydrology.Large spatial and temporal (i.e., seasonal) variability in groundwater response to climate change between regions is anticipated. Most studies combine field observations with modelling, but many have focused only on small/medium basins. At these small scales, groundwater systems are generally projected to be fairly resilient to climate change impacts. However, modelling studies of larger basins (e.g., Grand River, Saginaw Bay, Maumee River) predict an increase in groundwater storage. Uncertainty in model simulations, particularly from climate models that are used to force hydrological models, is a major challenge. There have been too few studies to date that investigate the interplay of climate change and groundwater quality in the Great Lakes Basin to draw conclusions about future groundwater quality and ecohydrology.A summary of methods, models, and technology is provided. Model uncertainty has become an increasingly important topic and is also discussed. The study concludes with a synthesis of the main science needs to understand groundwater impacts in order to adapt to a changing climate in the Great Lakes Basin.     

Opportunities for bipartisanship: Comparing water and energy policy in the Great Lakes region

The Great Lakes contain most of the United States’ surface freshwater and provide deep personal and economic connections for the residents of the region. These connections create an opportunity for bipartisanship in environmental policies with the potential to permeate energy policies. To explore that possibility, this paper examines how party affiliation affects support for water policy and energy policy in the Great Lakes region of the United States. Data from the Great Lakes Region Public Opinion Survey asked 696 Republicans, Independents, and Democrats from the Great Lakes region to respond to a range of environmental policy prompts. Responses to the policy prompts are grouped into four components: Water Quality, Water Diversions, Traditional Fuels, and Renewables. The results find that there is bipartisan support for the Water Quality and Water Diversions components. Energy policies do not receive the same bipartisan support, with Democrats and Independents having more support for the Renewables component while Republicans have more support for the Traditional Fuels component. However, when the fuel source is tied to its pollutants of the Great Lakes, then reactions to that fuel source receive a bipartisan response. The results of this research suggest that embedding water policy in energy policy may allow those policies to receive more bipartisan support. Combining water policy and energy policy can depolarize some of the politics surrounding environmental policy broadly.     

Relative importance of macrophyte community versus water quality variables for predicting fish assemblages in coastal wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Fish have been shown to be sensitive indicators of environmental quality in Great Lakes coastal wetlands. Fish composition also reflects aquatic macrophyte communities, which provide them with critical habitat. Although investigators have shown that the relationship between water quality and fish community structure can be used to indicate wetland health, we speculate that this relationship is a result of the stronger, more direct relationship between water quality and macrophytes, together with the ensuing interconnection between macrophyte and fish assemblages. In this study, we use data collected from 115 Great Lakes coastal marshes to test the hypothesis that plants are better predictors of fish species composition than is water quality. First we use canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to conduct an ordination of the fish community constrained by water quality parameters. We then use co-correspondence analysis (COCA) to conduct a direct ordination of the fish community with the plant community data. By comparing the statistic ‘percent fit,’ which refers to the cumulative percentage variance of the species data, we show that plants are consistently better predictors of the fish community than are water quality variables in three separate trials: all wetlands in the Great Lakes basin (whole: 21.2% vs 14.0%; n = 60), all wetlands in Lakes Huron and Superior (Upper: 20.3% vs 18.8%; n =  32), and all wetlands in Georgian Bay and the North Channel (Georgian Bay: 18% vs 17%; n =  70). This is the largest study to directly examine plant–fish interactions in wetlands of the Great Lakes basin.     

Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990–1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperatures derived from the NCEP Global Reanalysis and output from the CCSM3 and GISS general circulation models (GCMs). The simulation results are compared to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The three RCM simulations appeared to be more accurate in winter and least accurate in summer, and more accurate aloft than near the surface. The reanalysis-constrained simulation adequately captured the spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of the observed surface-air temperature and precipitation, but it produced consistently across all seasons a cold bias that is generally larger over the lakes than over land and a wet bias due to an overestimation of non-convective precipitation. The simulated seasonal cycle of moisture–flux convergence over the region was in very good agreement with NARR. The two GCM-driven runs adequately simulated the spatial and seasonal variation of temperature, but overestimated cold-season precipitation and underestimated summer precipitation, reversing the observed annual precipitation cycle. The GISS-driven run failed to simulate the prevailing low-level flow and moisture convergence patterns. All three RCM simulations successfully captured the impact of the Great Lakes on the region's climate, especially on winter precipitation, a significant improvement over coarse-resolution GCM simulations over the region.     

Revisiting the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement phosphorus targets and predicting the trophic status of Lake Michigan

LM3-Eutro is a high-resolution eutrophication model with several improved features lacking in historical Great Lakes models. We calibrated LM3-Eutro using a 2-year (1994-1995) dataset and performed a hindcast simulation from 1976 to 1995 to evaluate the model's ability to make predictions over an extended period of time. Results show a reasonable agreement between model output and field data over this time period. The model predicted that an annual loading of 5600 metric tons (MT) would result in a lake-wide annual total phosphorus (TP) concentration of 7.5 μg L^− 1. Using best estimates of future TP loadings, LM3-Eutro forecasts suggest that Lake Michigan will remain oligotrophic and will continue to meet the 7 μg L^− 1 spring TP concentration Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement objective.     

Assessment of nitrogen fixation rates in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Nitrogen fixation (N_Fix) is an important, yet understudied, microbial process in aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL). To date, a dearth of nitrogen fixation rate measurements exists in the LGL, are from temporally isolated studies, and were collected primarily from near-shore and surface water environments. Evidence of nitrogen accumulation across the Laurentian Great Lakes suggest that we do not have a firm grasp on nitrogen cycling in large lakes. Thus, we sought to quantify the spatial variability of N_Fix in the LGL. We found lakes are significantly different in N_Fix rates from one another and that rates are depth dependent. Overall mean surface N_Fix rates of Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie and Ontario were 0.024, 0.020, 0.069, 0.145, and 0.078 (nmol N₂/L/hr), respectively. Likewise, we found the Western, Central and Eastern basins of Lake Erie are significantly different in N_Fix rates (0.1540, 0.1032, 0.0738 nmol N₂/L/hr). However, we found no significant difference in N_Fix rates between near and offshore sites in Lake Erie, which may have been biased due to a cyanobacterial bloom containing a nitrogen-fixing Dolichospermum sp. Linear regression models indicate N_Fix is generally positively correlated with chlorophyll-a concentration and negatively correlated with oxidized nitrogen species concentrations. However, Lakes Erie and Huron exhibited a positive linear relationship with oxidized nitrogen, suggesting that N_Fix may persist to meet cellular and community nitrogen demands. Together, our data highlight N_Fix is important despite the presence of abundant nitrogen in all LGL.     

Commentary: Integrating non-targeted and targeted chemical screening in Great Lakes fish monitoring programs

The Great Lakes are a vital resource for drinking water and recreation and provide a major fishery for millions of people. As part of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, the US and Canadian governments have been charged with the protection of this system. Persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBTs) contaminants were found to be affecting the lake water quality as early as the late 1960s, and various programs sponsored by the US and Canada have been created to monitor PBTs such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). These programs have refined measurement techniques to quantify trace level contaminants using a targeted analytical approach. However, new PBTs are being detected in the environment, and the traditional targeted methodology is inadequate for understanding the complex chemical mixture affecting Great Lakes wildlife. Fortunately, new analytical technologies are emerging that allow for comprehensive screening of PBTs beyond targeted methods. The current commentary presents an outline of a new framework for contemporary monitoring programs. The goal is to facilitate the compilation of legacy, emerging PBT, and archive PBT signatures by utilizing the basic practices of traditional targeted analysis. This example focuses on fish monitoring programs, and how they are ideally suited for legacy monitoring as well as data-driven discovery of new chemicals of concern.     

Coastal geomorphic response to seasonal water-level rise in the Laurentian Great Lakes: An example from Illinois Beach State Park,USA

Hydrodynamic processes, such as fluctuating water levels, waves, and currents, shape coastlines across timescales ranging from minutes to millennia. In large lacustrine systems, such as the Laurentian Great Lakes, the role of water level in driving long-term (centuries to millennia) coastal evolution is well understood. However, additional research is needed to explore short-term (weeks to months) beach geomorphic response to fluctuating water level. Developing a process-focused understanding of how water level fluctuations shape coastal response across these shorter time scales is imperative for coastal management. Here, we present measurements of geomorphic response along a lacustrine beach ridge plain to seasonal water level fluctuations during a decadal high-stand in Lake Michigan water level. Frequent topographic change measurements revealed high spatial and temporal variability in geomorphic response to rising lake level. Sites immediately downdrift of shore protection began to erode immediately as lake level increased. The co-occurrence of peak seasonal lake levels and a modest increase in wave energy resulted in erosion and overwash at sites that resisted erosion during the initial seasonal rise in lake level. None of the sites in this study returned to their initial morphology following seasonal lake level rise. Given that peak water levels were nearly identical in 2017 and 2018, yet the majority of erosion at our sites occurred in 2017, we postulate that erosion associated with seasonal lake level rise is primarily a function of the change in annual maximum water level from year to year, rather than solely the elevation of the water level.     

Goals,beneficiaries, and indicators of waterfront revitalization in Great Lakes Areas of Concern and coastal communities

Cleanup of Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) restores environmental benefits to waterfront communities and is an essential condition for revitalization. We define waterfront revitalization as policies or actions in terrestrial waterfront or adjacent aquatic areas that promote improvements in human socioeconomic well-being while protecting or improving the natural capital (the stocks of natural assets, biodiversity) that underlies all environmental, social, and economic benefits. Except for economic measures such as development investments, visitation rates, or commercial activity, evidence of waterfront revitalization in the Great Lakes is mostly anecdotal. We offer a perspective on waterfront revitalization that links indicators and metrics of sustainable revitalization to community goals and human beneficiaries. We compiled environmental, social, economic, and governance indicators and metrics of revitalization, many of which are based on or inspired by Great Lakes AOC case studies and community revitilization or sustainability plans. We highlight the role of indicators in avoiding unintended consequences of revitalization including environmental degradation and social inequity. Revitalization indicators can be used in planning for comparing alternative designs, and to track restoration progress. The relevancy of specific indicators and metrics will always depend on the local context.