Revisiting the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement phosphorus targets and predicting the trophic status of Lake Michigan

LM3-Eutro is a high-resolution eutrophication model with several improved features lacking in historical Great Lakes models. We calibrated LM3-Eutro using a 2-year (1994-1995) dataset and performed a hindcast simulation from 1976 to 1995 to evaluate the model's ability to make predictions over an extended period of time. Results show a reasonable agreement between model output and field data over this time period. The model predicted that an annual loading of 5600 metric tons (MT) would result in a lake-wide annual total phosphorus (TP) concentration of 7.5 μg L^− 1. Using best estimates of future TP loadings, LM3-Eutro forecasts suggest that Lake Michigan will remain oligotrophic and will continue to meet the 7 μg L^− 1 spring TP concentration Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement objective.     

Evaporation from Lake Superior: 1. Physical controls and processes

The surface energy balance of Lake Superior was measured using the eddy covariance method at a remote, offshore site at 0.5-h intervals from June 2008 through November 2010. Pronounced seasonal patterns in the surface energy balance were observed, with a five-month delay between maximum summer net radiation and maximum winter latent and sensible heat fluxes. Late season (winter) evaporation and sensible heat losses from the lake typically occurred in two- to three-day-long events, and were associated with significant release of stored heat from the lake. The majority of the evaporative heat loss (70-88%) and sensible heat loss (97-99%) occurred between October and March, with 464 mm (2008-2009) and 645 mm (2009-2010) of evaporative water loss occurring over the water year starting October 1. Evaporation was proportional to the horizontal wind speed, inversely proportional to the ambient vapor pressure, and was well described by the ratio of wind speed to vapor pressure. This ratio remained relatively constant between the two water years, so the differences in evaporative water loss between years were largely associated with differences in lake surface conditions (e.g. water temperature, ice cover, and ice duration). Since late-season water temperature decline is driven by evaporative and sensible heat loss, the potential for a negative feedback mechanism between evaporation and ice cover is discussed.     

Integrated watershed management in Michigan: Challenges and proposed solutions

Michigan's current water management system is highly decentralized and based more on jurisdictional than watershed boundaries. There is both environmental and economic justification to examine alternate water resource management approaches given the current system's potential for inefficiency and redundancy. Our research addresses a central question: How might an integrated watershed governance system be applied in Michigan, where jurisdictional authority and political will are fragmented both horizontally across agencies and vertically across scales? We identify the key challenges facing Michigan's current approach to managing water resources and then describe two alternatives, referred to as Integrated Watershed Commissions (IWCs), which would coordinate water resource management and decision making on a watershed basis. The first alternative represents a relatively radical departure from the state's current structure, an “unconstrained” vision for comprehensive watershed management, which is not bound by the state's present political and management limitations. The second alternative, a more conservative or “constrained” vision for watershed coordination, operates primarily within Michigan's existing governance structures, and therefore includes mostly incremental change. For each alternative, we propose watershed boundaries and management structures, and discuss possible benefits and caveats. We also identify plausible next steps that can be taken in the near future, short of IWC implementation, that may catalyze water management reform and enhance coordination and collaboration in managing water resources in Michigan.     

Extreme water level rise across the upper Laurentian Great Lakes region: Citizen science documentation 2010–2020

As the global water balance accelerates in a warming climate, extreme fluctuations in the water levels of lakes and aquifers are anticipated, with biogeochemical, ecological and water supply consequences. However, it is unclear how site-specific factors, such as location, morphometry and hydrology, will modulate these impacts on regional spatial scales. Here, we report water level time series collected by citizen scientists for 15 diverse inland lakes in the upper Laurentian Great Lakes region from 2010 to 2020, and we compare these time series with those for the two largest Great Lakes, Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron. Combined with historical data (1942–2010), the findings indicate that lakes spanning seven orders of magnitude in size (10^?2 to 10⁵ km²) all rebounded from record low to record high water levels during the recent decade. They suggest coherent water level oscillations among regional lakes (large and small) implying a common, near-decadal, climatic driver that may be changing.     

A review of estimates of daily energy expenditure and food intake in cormorants (Phalacrocorax spp.)

Daily energy expenditure (DEE) and daily food intake (DFI) are key parameters in estimating population level consumption by cormorants. A number of different methods are still employed in estimating these parameters along with different estimates for assimilation efficiency (if used) and prey energy density. The pellet/fish size reconstruction and percent adult body weight methods underestimate DFI for a number of reasons including an implied underestimation of DEE. In the absence of study-specific data, an assimilation efficiency of 0.80 and prey energy density of 5.42 kJ?g^− 1 are recommended. The bioenergetic model for field metabolic rate from Ellis and Gabrielsen (2002) is recommended for adults during the nesting season and their model for basal metabolic rate (BMR × 2.5) is recommended for adults or sub-adults outside the nesting season. Comparisons between empirical and bioenergetic models for chick DFI are also made with recommendations on estimating DFI.     

Canada's national aquatic biological specimen bank and database

Long-term systematic storage of environmental specimens has become an important component of formal environmental monitoring programs in many countries. In 1977, the Contaminants Surveillance Program (CSP) began in the Great Lakes Basin. In support of the CSP, Fisheries and Oceans Canada began archiving fish tissue samples and created the Great Lakes Fisheries Specimen Bank (GLFSB). In 2006, responsibility for the GLFSB was transferred to Environment Canada and it was renamed the National Aquatic Biological Specimen Bank (NABSB). The new name better reflects the current contents and purpose of the specimen bank which now supports Canada's Chemicals Management Plan (CMP). The NABSB employs standardized banking protocols, computerized sample tracking, maintenance of all data and metadata associated with each specimen, and modern storage equipment situated in a dedicated facility at the Canada Centre for Inland Waters in Burlington, Ontario. Since 1977, specimens from the NABSB have contributed to more than 60 scientific publications, reports, and/or book chapters on the status, trends, and bioaccumulation of metals and various organic contaminants such as PCBs, dioxins, furans, and aromatic hydrocarbons, in aquatic ecosystems. Collection and archiving of specimens in the NABSB continues such that the specimen bank currently holds more than 52,000 samples from 18,749 specimens of top predator fish, forage fish, plankton, and other invertebrates collected over 32 years of environmental monitoring in the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes and beyond.     

Tributary phosphorus monitoring in the U.S. portion of the Laurentian Great Lake Basin: Drivers and challenges

This paper examines the tributary monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes, focusing on the challenges faced by the agencies and organizations responsible for maintaining the network. The tributaries that are monitored vary in terms of flow, the size and terrain of the watershed being drained, and patterns of land use. Data generated by this network are used by researchers to compute lake-wide phosphorus loads. In this work, the primary drivers and challenges associated with operating an effective phosphorus tributary monitoring program were investigated through interviews with stakeholders responsible for managing a portion of the existing network. Based on these interviews, the authors identify three recommendations that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider. The first is to provide states with incentives to support the long-term monitoring that is required to estimate phosphorus loads in tributaries to the Great Lakes; currently, most states design their programs to meet the requirements of the Clean Water Act, which results in patterns of sampling that are not necessarily useful for computing loads. The second recommendation is to facilitate the creation of a monitoring protocol that generates enough samples to identify trends and quantify loads at a level of certainty necessary for use in statistical models and load control programs. Finally, funding mechanisms capable of supporting long-term monitoring programs need to be established, with programs in Michigan and Minnesota serving as potential models.     

Risk-based classification and interactive map of watersheds contributing anthropogenic stress to Laurentian Great Lakes coastal ecosystems

We describe development anthropogenic stress indices for coastal margins of the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Indices were derived based on the response of species assemblages to watershed-scale stress from agriculture and urbanization. Metrics were calculated for five groups of wetland biota: diatoms, wetland vegetation, aquatic invertebrates, fishes, and birds. Previously published community change points of these assemblages were used to classify each watershed as ‘least-disturbed’, ‘at-risk’, or ‘degraded’ based on community response to these stressors. The end products of this work are an on-line map utility and downloadable data that characterize the degree of agricultural land use and development in all watersheds of the US and Canadian Great Lakes basin. Discrepancies between the observed biological condition and putative anthropogenic stress can be used to determine if a site is more degraded than predicted based on watershed characteristics, or if remediation efforts are having beneficial impacts on site condition. This study provides a landscape-scale evaluation of wetland condition that is a critical first step for multi-scale assessments to help prioritize conservation or restoration efforts.     

Water depth and lake-wide water level fluctuation influence on α- and β-diversity of coastal wetland fish communities

Coastal wetlands in the Laurentian Great Lakes are critical habitats for supporting fish diversity and abundance within the basin. Insight into the coupling of biodiversity patterns with habitat conditions may elucidate mechanisms shaping diverse communities. Within coastal wetlands, water depth as well as fluctuations in lake-wide water levels over inter-annual timescales, both have the potential to influence fish communities. Water level fluctuation can influence fish habitat structure (e.g., vegetation) in Great Lakes coastal wetlands, but it is unclear how water depth and lake-wide water level fluctuations affect fish community composition and diversity. Using β dissimilarity indices and multivariate ordination techniques, we assessed fish community structure among bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus)-dominated wetlands in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, USA. We examined whether community structure was related to wetland water depth at the time of sampling and whether fish communities were more similar among years with similar Lake Huron water levels. Results suggested relatively high levels of both spatial (among wetlands) and temporal (among year) community dissimilarity that was driven primarily by species turnover. Thus, variability in water depths among wetlands and in Lake Huron water levels among years likely both contribute to regional fish diversity. Further, fish abundance and alpha diversity were positively correlated with wetland water depth at the time of sampling. Both climate change and anthropogenic water level stabilization may alter the magnitude and timing of water level fluctuations in the Great Lakes. Our data suggest that these changes could affect local fish community composition and regional fish diversity.     

Dominant glacial landforms of the lower Great Lakes region exhibit different soil phosphorus chemistry and potential risk for phosphorus loss

Phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural soils are a growing economic and water-quality concern in the Lake Erie watershed. While recent studies have explored edge-of-field and watershed P losses related to land-use and agricultural management, the potential for soils developed from contrasting parent materials to retain or release P to runoff has not been examined. A field-based study comparing eight agricultural fields in contrasting glacial landscapes (hummocky coarse-textured till-plain, lacustrine and fine-textured till-plain) showed distinct physical and geochemical soil properties influencing inorganic P (P_i) partitioning throughout the soil profile between the two regions. Fields located on the coarse-textured till-plain in mid-western Ontario, Canada had alkaline calcareous soils with the highest Total-P_i concentrations and the majority of soil P_i stored in an acid-soluble pool (up to 91%). In contrast, loosely to moderately soluble P_i concentrations were higher in soils of the lacustrine and fine-textured till-plain in southwestern Ontario, northeast Indiana and northwestern Ohio, US. Overall, soils on the lacustrine and fine-textured till-plain had a greater shrink swell-capacity, likely creating preferential flow to minimize P_i interaction with the more acidic, lower carbonate and lower sorption capacity soils. These differences in soil P_i retention and transport pathways demonstrate that in addition to management, the natural landscape may exert a significant control on how P_i is mobilized throughout the Lake Erie watershed. Further, results indicate that careful consideration of region-specific hydrology and soil biogeochemistry may be required when designing appropriate management strategies to minimize P_i losses across the lower Great Lakes region.     

Exploring market-based environmental policy for groundwater management and ecosystem protection for the Great Lakes region: Lessons learned

The Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact (the Compact) was created to protect future water supplies and aquatic ecosystems in the Great Lakes. The Compact requires the eight Great Lakes state to regulate, among other things, large withdrawals of groundwater and surface water so that they do not negatively affect stream flows and ecosystems within the Great Lakes Basin. Thus, the Compact raises the possibility of increased restrictions on groundwater withdrawals in many locations throughout the Great Lakes region. However, restricting withdrawals is likely to encounter opposition from water users when such restrictions are viewed as an infringement on existing water use rights and/or as negatively impacting local economic development. Such conflicts could hinder effective implementation of state and regional water policy. This paper explores the application of a market-based environmental management tool called “Conservation Credit Offsets Trading (CCOT)” that could facilitate allocation of groundwater withdrawals, and develops a framework for guiding the implementation of CCOT within the context of a groundwater permitting system. Using a watershed in southwestern Michigan, this study demonstrates how bio-physical information and input from various local stakeholders were combined to aid groundwater policy designed to achieve the objective of no net (adverse) impact on stream ecosystems. By allowing flexibility through trading of conservation credit offsets, this groundwater policy tool appears to be more politically acceptable than traditional, less flexible, regulations. The results and discussion provide useful lessons learned with relevance to other areas in the Great Lakes Basin.     

Breeding birds and anurans of dynamic coastal wetlands in Green Bay,Lake Michigan

Breeding birds and anurans (frogs and toads) in coastal wetlands of Green Bay, Lake Michigan vary dynamically with changing water levels, habitat type, and geography. We describe species assemblages over a seven-year period (2011–2017) beginning with historic low water levels followed by an increase in average lake level of 0.85?m. In general, species richness and abundance of marsh-obligate species responded positively to increasing water levels, although several species of shallow wetlands (sandhill crane, sedge wren, swamp sparrow, and American toad) showed the opposite trend. Anuran assemblages were more diverse in the middle and upper bay, coinciding with a well-established nutrient gradient from the hypereutrophic lower bay to more oligotrophic waters of the upper bay. Three marsh-obligate bird species (black tern, sandhill crane, and sedge wren) were significantly more abundant in the middle or upper bay while sora, American coot, and common gallinule were more abundant in the eutrophic lower bay. Our findings have several important implications for conservation. Inland wetlands near the coast (including diked wetlands) might play a key ecological role by providing refugia for some species during low water years. However, the importance of shallow coastal wetlands and nearshore gradients of wetland habitat might be overlooked during low water years; when high water returns, these areas can become extremely productive and species-rich.     

Landscape-scale modeling of water quality in Lake Superior and Lake Michigan watersheds: How useful are forest-based indicators?

The Great Lakes watersheds have an important influence on the water quality of the nearshore environment, therefore, watershed characteristics can be used to predict what will be observed in the streams. We used novel landscape information describing the forest cover change, along with forest census data and established land cover data to predict total phosphorus and turbidity in Great Lakes streams. In Lake Superior, we modeled increased phosphorus as a function of the increase in the proportion of persisting forest, forest disturbed during 2000–2009, and agricultural land, and we modeled increased turbidity as a function of the increase in the proportion of persisting forest, forest disturbed during 2000–2009, agricultural land, and urban land. In Lake Michigan, we modeled increased phosphorus as a function of ecoregion, decrease in the proportion of forest disturbed during 1984–1999 and watershed storage, and increase in the proportion of urban land, and we modeled increased turbidity as a function of ecoregion, increase in the proportion of forest disturbed during 2000–2009, and decrease in the proportion softwood forest. We used these relationships to identify priority areas for restoration in the Lake Superior basin in the southwestern watersheds, and in west central and southwest watersheds of the Lake Michigan basin. We then used the models to estimate water quality in watersheds without observed instream data to prioritize those areas for management. Prioritizing watersheds will aid effective management of the Great Lakes watershed and result in efficient use of restoration funds, which will lead to improved nearshore water quality.