Application of Bayesian Methods for Age‐Dependent Reliability Analysis

In this article, the authors present a general methodology for age‐dependent reliability analysis of degrading or ageing components, structures and systems. The methodology is based on Bayesian methods and inference—its ability to incorporate prior information and on ideas that ageing can be thought of as age‐dependent change of beliefs about reliability parameters (mainly failure rate), when change of belief occurs not only because new failure data or other information becomes available with time but also because it continuously changes due to the flow of time and the evolution of beliefs. The main objective of this article is to present a clear way of how practitioners can apply Bayesian methods to deal with risk and reliability analysis considering ageing phenomena. The methodology describes step‐by‐step failure rate analysis of ageing components: from the Bayesian model building to its verification and generalization with Bayesian model averaging, which as the authors suggest in this article, could serve as an alternative for various goodness‐of‐fit assessment tools and as a universal tool to cope with various sources of uncertainty. The proposed methodology is able to deal with sparse and rare failure events, as is the case in electrical components, piping systems and various other systems with high reliability. In a case study of electrical instrumentation and control components, the proposed methodology was applied to analyse age‐dependent failure rates together with the treatment of uncertainty due to age‐dependent model selection. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

天然气深冷处理中丙烷辅助制冷节能流程技术分析

文章对天然气深冷处理装置中丙烷辅助制冷节能流程进行了介绍 ,就压缩机级数和冷凝剂冷凝温度对压缩机功率的影响进行了对比分析 ,提出了确定压缩机级数的优化方案     

A reliability analysis for electronic devices under an extension of exponentiated perks distribution

This paper presents a reliability analysis for electronic devices (ED) with bathtub curve-shaped failure times. An extension of the exponentiated perks distribution (EPD) is proposed for the analysis. The extension of this new distribution is based on the Alpha Power Transformation, so the Alpha Exponentiated Perks Distribution (AEXP) is introduced. The AEXP has three shape parameters and one scale parameter, allowing greater flexibility to represent failure rates in an increasing, decreasing, or bathtub curve form. Some useful properties in the reliability engineering context are presented. AEXP parameters were estimated via the Maximum Likelihood Method. Finally, two case studies focused on ED are used to compare the proposed distribution and other distributions with similar failure rate representation properties. The obtained results show that the AEXP better describes the behavior of ED than the distributions considered in the analysis.     

海洋平台油气管道疲劳裂纹AE信号特征提取及识别研究

为了将声发射(AE)技术实际应用到监测海洋平台油气管道疲劳裂纹中,需要解决管道振动干扰以及疲劳裂纹AE信号有效特征提取的问题,而问题的关键在于对管道结构疲劳裂纹AE信号特征提取及识别算法的研究.在已有研究的基础上,提出了一种基于经验模态分解(EMD)为特征提取的疲劳裂纹识别方法,将管道振动干扰问题和疲劳裂纹AE信号有效...     

The recent development of analysis methodology for rapid crack propagation and arrest in gas pipelines

Several dynamic analysis issues relating to rapid crack propagation (RCP) and arrest in gas piplines were developed recently, and are presented in this paper. This is based on a fluid/structure/fracture interaction package, PFRAC. Some developments have been implemented into this finite element code to simulate the behavior of the fractured pipes. The criteria for crack initiation, propagation and arrest have been discussed. As the crack propagates along the pipeline, the gas pressure decompression ahead of the crack tip and an efficiency of a linear decay behind the crack have been used in the computation. For the calculation of crack driving force G, the numerical approaches using the nodal force release and energy balance methods are described. This paper also presents a novel analysis methodology that has been developed to investigate the suitability of crack arrestors. Several numerical results for the cracked steel pipes with arrestors are presented along with comparisons with pipes that do not have arrestors.     

Reliability study of fracture mechanics based non‐probabilistic interval analysis model

In this paper, we advanced a new interval reliability analysis model for fracture reliability analysis. Based on the non‐probabilistic stress intensity factor interference model and the ratio of the volume of the safe region to the total volume of the region associated with the variation of the standardized interval variables is suggested as the measure of structural non‐probabilistic reliability. We use this theory to calculate the reliability of structure based on fracture criterion. This model needs less uncertain information, so it has less limitation for analysing an uncertain structure or system. Examples of practical application are given to explain the simplicity and practicability of this model by comparing the interval reliability analysis model with probabilistic reliability analysis model.     

Reliability of Measurements of the Natural Gas Flow Rate and Volume in Gas Distribution Organizations

The proposed new approach to the procedure for measuring the flow rate and volume of gas under standard conditions in gas distribution organizations increases the reliability of the measurements. It is based on identical transformations of the Clapeyron-Mendeveleev equation, with modifications, and takes into account the composition of the natural gas and the recommendations of Federal Law No. 69-FZ (article 19) of March 31, 1999, about natural gas certification by Gosstandart of the Russian Federation. Use of the modified Clapeyron–Mendeleev equation is shown to changes the form of the transformation functions of various primary measuring transducers (turbine, rotary, vortex, ultrasonic, etc.) under the conditions of actual measurements.     

Numerical simulation of high-pressure gas atomization of two-phase flow: Effect of gas pressure on droplet size distribution

This paper deals with the physics of high-pressure gas atomization in metal powder production. To gain understanding of the effect of gas pressure on droplet size distribution, a numerical two-phase flow study is performed using Eulerian-Eulerian Volume of Fluid (VOF) interface tracking method. Annular-slit, close-coupled gas atomizer is considered to atomize molten aluminum using nitrogen as the atomizing gas. Four cases with different gas pressures are considered, while geometry and other operational parameters are fixed. Characteristics of several interfacial instabilities have been identified at different stages of the atomization process. Despite the increment in the rate of the atomization with the increasing gas pressure, deformation characteristics and the breakup mechanisms remain unchanged. Droplet size and the cumulative volume distributions indicate that the effectiveness of the atomization process increases with the elevating gas pressure. Cumulative volume obtained from the numerical simulations at low gas pressures display similar trends to the experimental results.     

Proportional hazards modelling of repairable systems

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate some situations under which the proportional hazards model (PHM) and its extensions can be used for identification of the most important covariates influencing a repairable system. First of all an overview of the application of the PHM in engineering is presented. Then the concepts of the PHM and its extensions, such as stratified PHM, PHM in the case of non-homogeneous Poisson processes and PHM in the case of jumps in the hazard rate or different intensity function at failures of a large number of copies of a repairable system, are presented. Selection of a suitable extension of the PHM for given data on the basis of residual plots is also discussed. Finally applications of the PHM and its extensions are illustrated with a suitable example. Only the semi-parametric method has been considered. The assumptions made in the PHM for the analysis of repairable systems have been explained graphically as far as possible. Perfect, minimal or imperfect repairs carried out on repairable systems can be taken into consideration for the reliability analysis using the PHM.     

Reliability analysis of systems with discrete event data using association rules

With the popularization of big data, an increasing number of discrete event data have been collected and recorded during system operations. These events are usually stored in the form of event logs, which contain rich information of system operations and have potential applications in fault diagnosis and failure prediction. In manufacturing processes, various levels of correlations exist among the events, which can be used to predict the occurrence of failure events. However, two challenges remain to be solved for effective reliability analysis and failure prediction: (1) how to leverage various information from the event log to predict the occurrence of failure events and (2) how to model the effects of multiple correlations on the prediction. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel reliability model, which integrates Cox proportional hazards (PHs) regression into survival analysis and association rule mining methodology. The model is used to evaluate the probability of failure event, which occurs within a certain period of time conditional on the occurrence history of correlated events. To estimate parameters and predict occurrence of failure events in the model, an effective algorithm is proposed based on piecewise-constant time axis division, Cox PHs model, and maximum likelihood estimation. Unlike the existing literature, our model focuses on the interactions among events. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated through a case study of a manufacturing company. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.     

Loading‐rate dependence of mode I crack growth in concrete

Mode I crack propagation process of concrete under relatively low loading rates which cover four orders of magnitude (0.2 μm/s to 2.0 mm/s) is investigated with three‐point bending (TPB) beams. All measured material properties exhibit rate sensitivity and follow a log‐linear relationship with the loading rate. A rate‐sensitive softening curve is established. The complete load‐crack mouth opening displacement (P‐CMOD) curve, crack propagation length, and fracture process zone (FPZ) length are simulated based on crack growth criterion with the fitted material parameters under those loading rates. Results show that the simulated P‐CMOD curves agree well with those of experimental measurements. It is clear that the peak load increases with the loading rate and so is the critical crack mouth opening displacement. Moreover, under the same load level, the length of the FPZ and the cohesive stress at the initial crack tip also increase with the increasing loading rate.     

Detecting outbreaks in temporally dependent networks

Dynamic networks require effective methods of monitoring and surveillance in order to respond promptly to unusual disturbances. In many applications, it is of interest to identify anomalous behavior within a dynamic interacting system. Such anomalous interactions are reflected by structural changes in the network representation of the system. In this paper, a dynamic random graph model is proposed that takes into account the past activities of the individuals in the social network and also represents temporal dependency of the network. The model parameters are appearance and disappearance probabilities of an edge which are estimated using a maximum likelihood approach. A generalization of a single path‐dependent likelihood ratio test is employed to detect changes in the parameters of the proposed model. Through monitoring the estimated parameters, one can effectively detect structural changes in a temporal‐dependent network. The proposed model is employed to describe the behavior of a real network, and its parameters are monitored via dependent likelihood ratio test and multivariate exponentially weighted moving average control chart. Results indicate that the proposed dynamic random graph model is a reliable mean to modeling and detecting changes in temporally dependent networks.     

Uniqueness,loss of ellipticity and localization for the time‐discretized,rate‐dependent boundary value problem with softening

The discretization in time of the initial boundary value problem for rate‐dependent (elastic‐viscoplastic) solid materials in presence of softening is investigated in this paper. The emphasis is put on uniqueness, loss of ellipticity and localization. It is found that the time‐discretized problem resembles the incremental problem for rate‐independent materials and softening may lead to ill‐posedness (loss of ellipticity) if the time step is greater than a critical value. It is well established that the implication of loss of ellipticity for the numerical simulations after spatial discretization is the pathological mesh dependency of the computed results. We furnish a method to compute the critical time step and demonstrate its use for a simple example problem. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

空气中甲烷、氮气中硫化氢气体标准样品的研制

本文叙述气体报警仪标定和检测使用的空气中甲烷、氮气中硫化氢气体标准样品的制备,以气相色谱法对其均匀性和稳定性进行考核,确保其数据准确可靠。     

反转轴间气膜密封振动过程分析

摘 要：本文对一种双端面反转轴间气膜密封因外界扰动而引起的振动进行了研究,用有限元方法计算了两个端面的气膜刚度和阻尼,分析了瞬态扰动力作用下前密封跑道和主密封环的振动过程,并研究了系统质量、压力等因素对振动的影响。结果表明,系统的自由振动频率主要由前密封跑道质量决定,主密封环质量对自由振动频率影响较小;同一密封跑道质量对应的不同的环道质量对系统的振动收敛时间影响不大;系统的压差越大,所能承受的扰动力越小,越易瞬时振动失稳。该计算结果对气膜密封的动力学响应分析具有一定的指导意义。     

Reliability assessment of complex electromechanical systems: A network perspective

The network theory is widely applied to improve the reliability of a complex electromechanical system. In this application, system reliability assessment with network theory has been paid a great deal of attention. Because of instrument malfunctions, staff omissions, imperfect inspection strategies, and complex structures, field failure data are often subject to interval censoring, making the holistic reliability assessment becomes a difficult task. Most traditional methods assume reliability of critical components or partial reliability as system reliability, which may cause a large bias in system reliability estimation. This paper proposes a novel method to evaluate and predict the system reliability of a complex electromechanical system subject to the insufficient fault data problem from a network perspective. First, the system modeling based on network theory is developed to describe the topology of a holistic system. Second, interval‐valued intuitionistic hesitant fuzzy number is proposed in order to solve insufficient data for single component. Then, a new measure—comprehensive reliability—that can reflect the reliability of nodes in combination with functional properties and topological properties, which are formulated by failure data and network model, respectively, is constructed for system reliability assessment. Subsequently, an improved system reliability model based on percolation theory is given in terms of comprehensive reliability of nodes. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a real case study for traction system are implemented.     

低温冷风机热气融霜实验研究

简述了低温冷库冷风机的热气融霜方式,对一座低温实验冷库进行了热气融霜实验.研究了在不同库温情况下的融霜过程,从库温、凝水量、温度场变化以及制冷系统运行状况等方面,分析了热气融霜对低温冷库的影响.实验结果表明热气融霜具有时间短、对库温影响较小等优点.     

Validation of a novel algorithm for the adaptive calculation of transient stratified flow of gas,oil and water in pipelines

In this paper, a mathematical model for three‐phase flow in pipelines is developed and a novel algorithm for solving the resulting system of partial differential equations is presented. The numerical solution is based on an adaptive mesh refinement technique. Significant gains in the numerical performance have been achieved by using this technique combined with high‐resolution schemes like FCT. This approach is highly beneficial in terms of speed while preserving accuracy. An explicit adaptive numerical solver adaptive conservation law solver (ACLS) has been developed in fortran90 using object‐oriented methods, which give a modular and flexible code. Some numerical tests are performed to show the good behaviour of this solver and to compare the numerical results against the experimental data. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A study of the modeling and analysis of software fault‐detection and fault‐correction processes

Most of the models for software reliability analysis are based on reliability growth models which deal with the fault detection process. This is done either by assuming that faults are corrected immediately after being detected or the time to correct a fault is not counted. Some models have been developed to relax this assumption. However, unlike the fault‐detection process, few published data sets are available to support the modeling and analysis of both the fault detection and removal processes. In this paper, some useful approaches to the modeling of both software fault‐detection and fault‐correction processes are discussed. Further analysis on the software release time decision that incorporates both a fault‐detection model and fault‐correction model is also presented. This procedure is easy to use and useful for practical applications. The approach is illustrated with an actual set of data from a software development project. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅谈纯化器在气相色谱分析中的应用

介绍载气纯化器对高灵敏度检测器的作用,通过试验和建立数学模型来阐明配置载气纯化器有利于提高气体中杂质含量测定的准确性和仪器的稳定性及灵敏度。