基于贝叶斯网络的态势估计研究

作为一种知识表示和进行概率推理的框架,贝叶斯在具有内在不确定性的推理和决策问题中得到了广泛的应用.分析了使用贝叶斯网络进行态势估计知识表示问题,提出了构建贝叶斯网络进行态势估计的步骤,分析了态势估计系统事件的层次.最后,给出一个具体的实例,演示了使用贝叶斯网络进行态势估计的过程.     

变结构动态贝叶斯网络的机制研究

传统的动态贝叶斯网络(Dynamic Bayesian networks, DBNs)描述的是一个稳态过程,而处理非稳态过程,变结构动态贝叶斯网络更适 用、更灵活、更有效.为了克服现有变结构离散 动态贝叶斯网络推理算法只能处理硬证据的缺陷,本文在深入分析变结构动态贝叶斯网络机制及其特 征的基础上,提出了变结构离散动态贝叶斯网络的 快速推理算法.此外,对变结构动态贝叶斯网络的特例,即数据缺失动态贝叶斯网络进行了定义并构建 了相应的模型.仿真实验验证了变结构离散动态贝 叶斯网络快速推理算法的有效性及计算效率.     

基于云贝叶斯网络的目标威胁评估方法

将云模型和贝叶斯网络相结合,形成云贝叶斯网络,并建立了基于云贝叶斯网络的威胁评估模型.首先,根据实际应用背景确定贝叶斯网络结构,并对连续型观测节点进行云模型转换;然后,将观测变量值输入云贝叶斯网络,推理得到目标属于各个威胁等级的概率;最后,为消除目标信息的不确定性对总的威胁度的影响,进行了多次重复推理,通过概率合成公式求得最终的威胁程度.以联合防空作战为背景,仿真实现了空中目标的威胁评估,验证了该方法的有效性.     

贝叶斯网络适应性学习

在现实中,随着对领域问题认识的深入,往往需要对贝叶斯网络进行调整,以使贝叶斯网络模型能够更好地反映实际问题.但调整后的贝叶斯网络中一些新参数需要根据原有贝叶斯网络来确定,目前缺乏对新参数学习方法的研究.本文基于专家知识调整贝叶斯网络结构,将原贝叶斯网络和新贝叶斯网络相结合,通过推理进行新参数的迭代学习,可实现贝叶斯网络的适应性学习.     

基于贝叶斯网络构建RoboSim模型的自动驾驶行为决策

为汽车自动驾驶提供安全高效的自动驾驶行为决策,是汽车自动驾驶领域面临的挑战性问题之一.目前,随着自动驾驶行业的蓬勃发展,工业界与学术界提出了诸多自动驾驶行为决策方法,但由于汽车自动驾驶行为决策受环境不确定因素的影响,决策本身也要求实效性及高安全性,现有的行为决策方法难以完全支撑这些要素.针对以上问题,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络构建RoboSim模型的自动驾驶行为决策方法.首先,基于领域本体分析自动驾驶场景元素之间的语义关系,并结合LSTM模型预测场景中动态实体的意图,进而为构建贝叶斯网络提供驾驶场景理解信息;然后,通过贝叶斯网络推理特定场景的自动驾驶行为决策,并使用RoboSim模型的状态迁移承载行为决策的动态执行过程,以减少贝叶斯网络推理的冗余操作,提高了决策生成的效率. RoboSim模型具有平台无关、能模拟仿真执行周期的特点,并支持多种形式化的验证技术.为确保行为决策的安全性,使用模型检测工具UPPAAL对RoboSim模型进行验证分析.最后,结合变道超车场景案例,进一步证实所提方法的可行性,为设计安全、高效的自动驾驶行为决策提供了一种可行的途径.     

离散动态贝叶斯网络推理的编程计算算法

离散动态贝叶斯网络是对时间序列进行建模和推理的重要工具,具有广泛的建模应用价值,但是其推理算法还有待进一步完善。针对构离散动态贝叶斯网络的推理算法难以理解、编程计算难、推理速度慢的问题,给出了实现离散动态贝叶斯推理算法的数据结构,推导了进行计算机编程计算的推理算法和编程步骤,并通过实例进行了算理验证。     

多实体贝叶斯网络在态势估计中的应用研究

介绍了多实体贝叶斯网络(MEBN)理论,给出了实体片断及多实体规则形式化的定义,分析了在态势估计中使用多实体贝叶斯网络进行知识表示和态势推理的问题.给出一个具体的实例,演示了使用多实体贝叶斯网络进行态势估计的过程.     

贝叶斯网络推理的研究与分析

贝叶斯网络是人工智能中不确定知识表示和推理的有力工具.介绍了贝叶斯网络的概念,给出一个实例,分析了贝叶斯网络推理的方法和过程.     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的威胁估计研究

威胁估计是基于客观事实和规则的因果推理判断,而贝叶斯网络提供了一种自然的表示因果关系的手段.通过对威胁估计过程的理解,全面分析了影响威胁等级的评估参数,建立了威胁估计的贝叶斯网络模型,并采用动态贝叶斯网络推理方法进行威胁估计.实例仿真结果验证了该方法的实用性和有效性.     

一种基于贝叶斯网络的随机测试方法在Cache一致性验证中的设计与实现

随着集成电路设计复杂度指数级增长,功能验证已经越来越成为大规模芯片设计的瓶颈,而在多核处理器中,Cache一致性协议十分复杂,验证难度大。针对Cache一致性协议验证提出基于模拟验证的一种基于贝叶斯网络的随机测试生成方法,解决Cache一致性协议状态空间爆炸的问题。首先分析了Cache一致性协议及基于贝叶斯网络推理的CDG方法,并将CDG方法应用于Cache一致性的验证。以FT处理器中的Cache一致性协议验证为例,对比伪随机测试,使用CDG方法将覆盖率提高近30%。     

基于贝叶斯压缩感知的信号重构

本文提出了基于贝叶斯压缩感知的信号重构算法,将压缩感知理论应用于信号的压缩传输以及重构,该算法将压缩感知问题转化为线性回归问题,逐步推演出结果向量之间的迭代关系,最后通过迭代以得到原始信号的精确重构. 仿真说明了贝叶斯压缩感知在信号处理中的应用,结果表明该算法对一维和二维信号的压缩重构有很好的效果.     

Fault detection and isolation of faults in a multivariate process with Bayesian network

The main objective of this paper is to present a new method of detection and isolation with a Bayesian network. For that, a combination of two original works is made. The first one is the work of Li et al. [1] who proposed a causal decomposition of the T² statistic. The second one is a previous work on the detection of fault with Bayesian networks [2], notably on the modeling of multivariate control charts in a Bayesian network. Thus, in the context of multivariate processes, we propose an original network structure allowing to decide if a fault has appeared in the process. This structure permits the isolation of the variables implicated in the fault. A particular interest of the method is the fact that the detection and the isolation can be made with a unique tool: a Bayesian network.     

PROBABILISTIC HEURISTICS FOR HIERARCHICAL WEB DATA CLUSTERING

Clustering Web data is one important technique for extracting knowledge from the Web. In this paper, a novel method is presented to facilitate the clustering. The method determines the appropriate number of clusters and provides suitable representatives for each cluster by inference from a Bayesian network. Furthermore, by means of the Bayesian network, the contents of the Web pages are converted into vectors of lower dimensions. The method is also extended for hierarchical clustering, and a useful heuristic is developed to select a good hierarchy. The experimental results show that the clusters produced benefit from high quality.     

基于属性分割的差分隐私异构多属性数据发布

针对现有多属性数据隐私发布方法无法兼顾属性的敏感性差异和计算效率低的问题,提出了一种基于属性分割的差分隐私异构多属性数据发布方法 HMPrivBayes.首先,设计了满足差分隐私的谱聚类算法分割原始数据集,其中相似矩阵的生成借助于属性最大信息系数.其次,借助属性信息,该方法使用满足差分隐私的改进贝叶斯网络构建算法分别为每个数据子集构建贝叶斯网络.最后,以属性归一化风险熵为权重分配隐私预算,对贝叶斯网络提取的属性联合分布添加异构噪声扰动,实现了异构多属性数据保护.实验结果表明, HMPrivBayes可以在减少注入合成数据集中噪声量的同时,提高合成数据计算效率.     

A new real-coded stochastic Bayesian optimization algorithm for continuous global optimization

Estimation of distribution algorithms are considered to be a new class of evolutionary algorithms which are applied as an alternative to genetic algorithms. Such algorithms sample the new generation from a probabilistic model of promising solutions. The search space of the optimization problem is improved by such probabilistic models. In the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA), the set of promising solutions forms a Bayesian network and the new solutions are sampled from the built Bayesian network. This paper proposes a novel real-coded stochastic BOA for continuous global optimization by utilizing a stochastic Bayesian network. In the proposed algorithm, the new Bayesian network takes advantage of using a stochastic structure (that there is a probability distribution function for each edge in the network) and the new generation is sampled from the stochastic structure. In order to generate a new solution, some new structure, and therefore a new Bayesian network is sampled from the current stochastic structure and the new solution will be produced from the sampled Bayesian network. Due to the stochastic structure used in the sampling phase, each sample can be generated based on a different structure. Therefore the different dependency structures can be preserved. Before the new generation is generated, the stochastic network’s probability distributions are updated according to the fitness evaluation of the current generation. The proposed method is able to take advantage of using different dependency structures through the sampling phase just by using one stochastic structure. The experimental results reported in this paper show that the proposed algorithm increases the quality of the solutions on the general optimization benchmark problems.     

动态贝叶斯网络在水文预报中的应用

贝叶斯网络是目前人工智能中不确定知识与推理中最有效的理论模型之一。提出一种基于动态贝叶斯网络模型理论的水文预报方法。在综合考虑降雨径流成因的基础上,利用领域专家知识构建网络模型,在已有降雨、流量数据的基础上通过计算变量间的条件概率来计算流量发生的可能性。最后,通过渭河流域咸阳至临潼段历时数据进行仿真实验,对仿真结果和该模型进行了分析。     

Variational Bayesian inference based robust multiple measurement sparse signal recovery

This work concentrates on not only probing into a novel Bayesian probabilistic model to formulate a general type of robust multiple measurement vectors sparse signal recovery problem with impulsive noise, but also developing an improved variational Bayesian method to recover the original joint row sparse signals. In the design of the model, two three-level hierarchical Bayesian estimation procedures are designed to characterize impulsive noise and joint row sparse source signals by means of Gaussian scale mixtures and multivariate generalized t distribution. Those hidden variables, included in signal and measurement models are estimated based on a variational Bayesian framework, in which multiple kinds of probability distributions are adopted to express their features. In the design of the algorithm, the proposed algorithm is a full Bayesian inference approach related to variational Bayesian estimation. It is robust to impulsive noise, since the posterior distribution estimation can be effectively approached through estimating unknown parameters. Extensive simulation results show that the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms the compared robust sparse signal recovery approaches under different kinds of impulsive noises.     

A method of learning implication networks from empirical data:algorithm and Monte-Carlo simulation-based validation

The paper describes an algorithmic means for inducing implication networks from empirical data samples. The induced network enables efficient inferences about the values of network nodes if certain observations are made. This implication induction method is approximate in nature as probabilistic network requirements are relaxed in the construction of dependence relationships based on statistical testing. In order to examine the effectiveness and validity of the induction method, several Monte Carlo simulations were conducted, where theoretical Bayesian networks were used to generate empirical data samples-some of which were used to induce implication relations, whereas others were used to verify the results of evidential reasoning with the induced networks. The values in the implication networks were predicted by applying a modified version of the Dempster-Shafer belief updating scheme. The results of predictions were, furthermore, compared to the ones generated by Pearl's (1986) stochastic simulation method, a probabilistic reasoning method that operates directly on the theoretical Bayesian networks. The comparisons consistently show that the results of predictions based on the induced networks would be comparable to those generated by Pearl's method, when reasoning in a variety of uncertain knowledge domains-those that were simulated using the presumed theoretical probabilistic networks of different topologies     

A modified probabilistic neural network for partial volume segmentation in brain MR image.

A modified probabilistic neural network (PNN) for brain tissue segmentation with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is proposed. In this approach, covariance matrices are used to replace the singular smoothing factor in the PNN's kernel function, and weighting factors are added in the pattern of summation layer. This weighted probabilistic neural network (WPNN) classifier can account for partial volume effects, which exist commonly in MRI, not only in the final result stage, but also in the modeling process. It adopts the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network to overly segment the input MR image, and yield reference vectors necessary for probabilistic density function (pdf) estimation. A supervised "soft" labeling mechanism based on Bayesian rule is developed, so that weighting factors can be generated along with corresponding SOM reference vectors. Tissue classification results from various algorithms are compared, and the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach are demonstrated.     

A partial correlation-based Bayesian network structure learning algorithm under linear SEM

A new algorithm, the PCB (partial correlation-based) algorithm, is presented for Bayesian network structure learning. The algorithm effectively combines ideas from local learning with partial correlation techniques. It reconstructs the skeleton of a Bayesian network based on partial correlation and then performs a greedy hill-climbing search to orient the edges. Specifically, we make three contributions. First, we prove that in a linear SEM (simultaneous equation model) with uncorrelated errors, when the datasets are generated by linear SEM, subject to arbitrary distribution disturbances, we can use partial correlation as the criterion of the CI test. Second, we perform a series of experiments to find the best threshold value of the partial correlation. Finally, we show how partial correlation can be used in Bayesian network structure learning under linear SEM. The effectiveness of the method is compared with current state of the art methods on eight networks. A simulation shows that the PCB algorithm outperforms existing algorithms in both accuracy and run time.