Application of multimedia models for screening assessment of long-range transport potential and overall persistence

We propose a multimedia model-based methodology to evaluate whether a chemical substance qualifies as POP-like based on overall persistence (Pov) and potential for long-range transport (LRTP). It relies upon screening chemicals against the Pov and LRTP characteristics of selected reference chemicals with well-established environmental fates. Results indicate that chemicals of high and low concern in terms of persistence and long-range transport can be consistently identified by eight contemporary multimedia models using the proposed methodology. Model results for three hypothetical chemicals illustrate that the model-based classification of chemicals according to Pov and LRTP is not always consistent with the single-media half-life approach proposed by the UNEP Stockholm Convention and thatthe models provide additional insight into the likely long-term hazards associated with chemicals in the environment. We suggest this model-based classification method be adopted as a complement to screening against defined half-life criteria at the initial stages of tiered assessments designed to identify POP-like chemicals and to prioritize further environmental fate studies for new and existing chemicals.     

Influence of vegetation on the environmental partitioning of DDT in two global multimedia models

Two multimedia models are used to investigate the effect of a vegetation compartment on the environmental partitioning of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT): a steady-state unit world model using global averages of vegetation cover and land-to-sea ratio and a dynamic model with latitudinal zones and zone-specific vegetation types and annual temperature courses. The vegetation compartment represents canopies of deciduous and coniferous forests and blades of grasses; the organic carbon content of the vegetation-covered soil is higher than in the bare soil. In the steady-state model, transfer from the air to the vegetation and the underlying soil as well as revolatilization from the foliage and reduced deposition to the soil is observed, depending on the chemical's degradation rate constant in vegetation and the deposition velocities of the gaseous and particle-bound fractions. In both models, a significant effect of the organic carbon content of the vegetation-covered soil increasing the effect of the vegetation compartment is observed. In the steady-state model, the changes in the DDT concentrations in air do not exceed 7% difference between the cases with and without vegetation; the soil concentrations differ by maximally a factor of 2.7. In the spatially and temporally resolved model, however, air concentration differences up to 90% are observed, depending on the type and amount of vegetation in the latitudinal zones. Long-range transport is less pronounced in the model with vegetation.     

Predicting acidification recovery at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire: evaluation of four models

The performance and prediction uncertainty (owing to parameter and structural uncertainties) of four dynamic watershed acidification models (MAGIC, PnET-BGC, SAFE, and VSD) were assessed by systematically applying them to data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, where long-term records of precipitation and stream chemistry were available. In order to facilitate systematic evaluation, Monte Carlo simulation was used to randomly generate common model input data sets (n = 10,000) from parameter distributions; input data were subsequently translated among models to retain consistency. The model simulations were objectively calibrated against observed data (streamwater: 1963-2004, soil: 1983). The ensemble of calibrated models was used to assess future response of soil and stream chemistry to reduced sulfur deposition at the HBEF. Although both hindcast (1850-1962) and forecast (2005-2100) predictions were qualitatively similar across the four models, the temporal pattern of key indicators of acidification recovery (stream acid neutralizing capacity and soil base saturation) differed substantially. The range in predictions resulted from differences in model structure and their associated posterior parameter distributions. These differences can be accommodated by employing multiple models (ensemble analysis) but have implications for individual model applications.     

Emission and long-range transport of gaseous mercury from a large-scale Canadian boreal forest fire

Field observations made at Harvard Forest [Petersham, MA, U.S.A. (42 degrees 54' N, 72 degrees 18' W)] during early July 2002 show clear evidence of long-range transport of gaseous mercury (Hg) in a smoke plume from a series of boreal forest fires in northern Quebec. These measurements indicated significant and highly correlated increases in Hg and CO during the plume event. The Hg:CO emissions ratio determined from the data (8.61 x 10(-8) mol mol(-1)) was combined with previously published information on CO emissions and biomass burned to determine a mean area-based Hg emission flux density for boreal forest fires (1.5 g Hg ha(-1)), annual Hg emissions from Canadian forest fires (3.5 tonnes), and annual global Hg emissions from boreal forest fires (22.5 tonnes). Annual Hg emissions from boreal fires in Canada may equal 30% of annual Canadian anthropogenic emissions in an average fire year and could be as high as 100% during years of intense burning. The Hg:CO emissions ratio of this study was much lower than those reported for a temperate forest in Ontario and a pine/shrub vegetation in South Africa, suggesting that fire emission is dependent on biome/species and that any extrapolation from a single fire event to determine the global fire emission is speculative.     

Predicting microbial growth: graphical methods for comparing models

Some simple computer-based graphics were used to compare different models predicting microbial growth responses of salmonellae to three factors (pH, sodium chloride concentration and incubation temperature). Simple linear regression, contour and three-dimensional surface plots all revealed gross differences between the predicted growth parameters from different growth models. Regression and contour plots were found to be more sensitive to small differences in surface topography, but three-dimensional surface plots provided a good overview.     

Screening criteria for long-range transport potential of organic substances in water

Screening of long-range transport potential (LRTP) of organic chemicals in water requires the development of criteria in analogy to the existing LRTP criteria for airborne chemicals. According to the Stockholm Convention, compounds mainly partitioning into air are assumed to be prone to LRTP if they have a half-life in air of more than two days. Using mean flow velocities of European rivers (0.7-1 m/s) and of ocean currents running into the Arctic Ocean (0.28-0.9 m/s), we derived corresponding half-life criteria for freshwater and seawater (10 days and 90 days, respectively). Next, we calculated the characteristic travel distance (CTD) of several thousand chemicals from the Canadian Domestic Substances List (DSL) and all current POPs using the multimedia model ELPOS. This shows that the CTD in water dominates the CTD in air only for chemicals that are characterized by a large half-life in water and a low air-water partition coefficient (about 38% of the nonionic organic substances selected from the DSL). In particular, there are substances that are not classified as persistent compounds in water but exhibit higher CTDs for transport in water than for transport in air. Finally, we evaluated whether the LRTP boundary derived from POP reference chemicals has to be revised if LRTP in water is included and found that this boundary can be applied to all organic chemicals regardless of their transport in air or water.     

美国烟草霜霉病大范围预测预报研究概况

在北美洲霜霉病是烟草的重要病害.目前中国还没有这一病害,属对外检疫对象,若传入中国,将给中国的烟草生产造成巨大损失.我们应对该病保持高度警惕,密切关注烟草霜霉病的发生发展与研究的新动向.本文将烟草霜霉病预测预报研究概况做一综述,以期严防此危险性病害的传入.     

Empirical and modeling evidence of the long-range atmospheric transport of decabromodiphenyl ether

Understanding of the long-range atmospheric transport (LRT) behavior of decabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-209) is still limited. Most existing model-based approaches to assessing an organic chemical's potential for LRT have assumed invariant environmental conditions, even though many factors impacting on the atmospheric residence time are known to vary considerably over a variety of time scales. Model estimates of LRT also suffer from limited evaluation against observational evidence. Such evidence was sought from dated sediment cores taken from lakes along a latitudinal transect in North America. BDE-209 was generally detected only in recent sediment horizons, and sedimentation fluxes were found to decline exponentially with latitude. The empirical half-distance (EHD) for BDE-209 derived from surface flux data is approximately half that of the sigmaPCBs. A dynamic multimedia fate and transport model provides further insight into the temporal variability of processes that control LRT for BDE-209 and PCBs. The variability of precipitation, and in particular, the occurrence of time periods without precipitation coinciding with strong winds, influences the LRT potential of chemicals that combine a sufficiently long atmospheric half-life with very low volatility. Likewise, the forest filter effect may be important for a wider range of chemicals than believed previously, because models assuming constant precipitation fail to account for the impact of differences in dry deposition on days without rain. Chemicals that are both sorbed to particles and potentially persistent in the atmosphere, such as BDE-209, may have a larger potential for LRT than anticipated on the basis of earlier model evaluations. Still, the EHDs illustrate that the model seems to underestimate atmospheric loss processes of potential significance to BDE-209, illustrating the need to critically compare predictions of LRT against observations. Processes that need to be understood better in order to improve predictions of LRT for BDE-209 include particle dry deposition, precipitation scavenging, and photolysis in the sorbed state.     

Atmospheric distribution and long-range transport behavior of organochlorine pesticides in North America

Annually averaged concentrations and enantiomeric compositions of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in air were determined in 2000/2001 at 40 stations across North America using XAD-based passive samplers. Absolute concentration differences acrossthe continent, the skewness and kurtosis of the concentration distribution, the relative abundance of parent compound and metabolites, and the chiral signatures can identify regional sources of OCP to the atmosphere. Specifically, air samples collected in the southeastern United States had elevated concentrations of chlordane-related compounds, higher ratios of trans- to cis-chlordane and heptachlor to heptachlor epoxide, as well as higher enantiomeric fractions of trans-chlordane as compared to other regions, suggesting continued release of microbially unprocessed chlordane to the regional atmosphere. Similarly, greatly elevated concentrations of p,p'-DDT, low relative abundance of the metabolite DDE, and a racemic composition of o,p'-DDT in samples from southern Mexico and Belize indicate recent use of DDT in these regions. Belize is also a potential source region for dieldrin. Reflecting its continued use in North America, endosulfan is now one of the most abundant and ubiquitous OCPs in the continental atmosphere. In contrast to these OCPs, air concentrations of penta- and hexachlorobenzene vary only by factors of 2-4 across the continent, reflecting a long atmospheric residence time and few primary sources. Atmospheric levels of the chlorobenzenes, alpha-endosulfan, and p,p'-DDE increase with elevation in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Empirical travel distances for the OCPs derived from latitudinal concentration profiles are in good agreementwith model-derived indicators of long-range transport potential and, in particular, lead to a similar categorization of the OCPs. Large-scale passive air sampling networks are suitable for monitoring compliance with, and effectiveness of, regulatory control measures and for establishing experimentally the atmospheric long-range transport behavior of organic air pollutants.     

Cyclic exchanges and level of coupling between environmental media: intermedia feedback in multimedia fate models

The importance of cyclic transport of chemicals between media in the environment can be expressed in terms of the Feedback correction factor--a multiplier that accounts for the fraction of an emission that returns to the medium of release after transfer to other media. This factor is calculated analytically by explicitly solving the appropriate system of mass balance equations or using matrix techniques. It generalizes the concept of stickiness, the ratio between the net and the overall deposition rate constants, to multipathway feedback, while providing a clearer view of the level of coupling between media and analyzing the importance of coupling. This paper first shows the usefulness of the total removal rate coefficient in each media (sum of degradation rate and all intermedia transfer rates) as a baseline to determine the chemical mass in different media, the characteristic travel distance and to understand the cyclic behavior, rather than starting from the degradation lifetimes or the overall persistence in the environment. Starting from this baseline, the importance of feedback is limited for most organic chemicals. The predicted media concentrations are influenced by less than 10% due to the cyclic nature of the intermedia transport for more than 90% of the 317 tested chemicals in a 4-compartment, steady-state, closed-system multimedia model. The Feedback correction factor is always less than a factor of 5 with the greatest values when transfer fractions are important in both directions for adjacent media. This corresponds to a restricted range in the K(AW) and K(OA) space with long chemical lifetimes in both adjacent media. This analysis of the importance of the Feedback correction factor, in conjunction with resultant criteria for when cyclic exchanges between media are likely to be significant, facilitates a more transparent understanding of how substance masses are distributed in the modeled system. It is one of the important criteria to determine to what extent media can be independently modeled.     

Chemical-specific representation of air--soil exchange and soil penetration in regional multimedia models

In multimedia mass-balance models, the soil compartment is an important sink as well as a conduit for transfers to vegetation and shallow groundwater. Here a novel approach for constructing soil transport algorithms for multimedia fate models is developed and evaluated. The resulting algorithms account for diffusion in gas and liquid components; advection in gas, liquid, or solid phases; and multiple transformation processes. They also provide an explicit quantification of the characteristic soil penetration depth. We construct a compartment model using three and four soil layers to replicate with high reliability the flux and mass distribution obtained from the exact analytical solution describing the transient dispersion, advection, and transformation of chemicals in soil layers with different properties but a fixed boundary condition at the air-soil surface. The soil compartment algorithms can be dynamically linked to other compartments (air, vegetation, groundwater, surface water) in multimedia fate models. We demonstrate and evaluate the performance of the algorithms in a model with applications to benzene, benzo[a]pyrene, MTBE, TCDD, and tritium.     

Guidance on the selection of efficient computational methods for multimedia fate models

Dynamic multimedia fate models (MFMs) have to deal with the temporal and spatial variation of physical-chemical properties, environmental scenarios, and chemical emissions. In such complex simulation tools, an analytical solution is not practically feasible, and even a numerical approach requires a suitable choice of the method in order to obtain satisfying speed and reliability, particularly when certain combinations of modeling scenarios and chemical properties occur. In this paper, considering some examples of a wide range of realistic chemical and scenario properties, some sources of stiffness in MFM equations are pinpointed. Next, a comparison of the performances of several numerical schemes (chosen as representatives of three wide classes) is performed. The accuracy and the computational effort required by each method is evaluated, illustrating the general effectiveness of automatically adapted timesteps in numerical algorithms and the pros and cons of implicit timestepping. The results show that automatic error control methods can significantly improve the quality of the computed solutions and most often lead to relevant savings in computing time. Additionally, explicit and implicit methods are compared, indicating that an implicit method of medium order (around 5) is the best choice as a general purpose MFM computing engine.     

Pollutant-specific scale of multimedia models and its implications for the potential dose

The spatial range is a generic indicator for how far pollutants are likely to travel. It also indicates the appropriate, pollutant-specific area of a multimedia model, which is the square of the spatial range. Formulations of the spatial range can be based on advective or dispersive transport. They differ in whether they take the extent and shape of the earth's surface into account. We suggest the common element of the different approaches is that all account for the persistence and mobility of pollutants. The mobility is the expected travel speed and depends on the partitioning. This paper extends the concept of a pollutant-specific model scale through the introduction of a characteristic atmospheric scale height. It is the height of the atmosphere that would be needed to contain all the pollutant if the entire atmosphere had ground-level concentration, taking into account deposition and degradation. We define the spatial range as the expected advection-driven travel distance of a pollutant molecule released to a specific compartment. This novel analytical formulation is more comprehensive but encompasses all previous advection-based proposals of a spatial range. We evaluate the spatial range and scale height of 288 chemicals for releases to air, surface water, and surface soil. We find a strong correlation between the spatial range for air releases and the scale height because both depend on persistence. We investigate the effect of the spatial scale on calculations of the human toxicity potential, a screening-level risk indicator based on toxicity and potential dose. The product of model area and potential dose is found to be the same for calculations using a fixed model area and those using the pollutant-specific spatial scale. The introduction of the scale height, however, can change the potential dose by more than 1 order of magnitude.     

Genetic evaluation of mastitis in dairy cattle using linear models, threshold models, and survival analysis: a simulation study

The objective was to study, by simulation, whether survival analysis results in a more precise genetic evaluation for mastitis in dairy cattle than cross-sectional linear models and threshold models by using observation periods for mastitis of 2 lengths (the first 150 d of lactation, and the full lactation, respectively). True breeding values for mastitis liability on the underlying scale were simulated for daughters of 400 sires (average daughter group size, 60 or 150), and the possible event of a mastitis case within lactation for each cow was created. For the linear models and the threshold models, mastitis was defined as a binary trait within either the first 150 d of lactation or the full lactation. For the survival analysis, mastitis was defined as the number of days from calving to either the first case of mastitis (uncensored record) or to the day of censoring (i.e., day of culling, lactation d 150 or day of next calving; censored record). Cows could be culled early in lactation (within 10 d after calving) for calving-related reasons or later on because of infertility. The correlation between sire true breeding values for mastitis liability and sire predicted breeding values was greater when using the full lactation data (0.76) than when using data from the first 150 d (0.70) with an average of 150 daughters per sire. The corresponding results were 0.60 and 0.53, respectively, with an average of 60 daughters per sire. Under these simulated conditions, the method used had no effect on accuracy. The higher accuracy of sire breeding values can be translated into a greater genetic gain, unless counteracted by a longer generation interval.     

Predicting chemical degradation during storage from two successive concentration ratios: Theoretical investigation

When a vitamin's, pigment's or other food component's chemical degradation follows a known fixed order kinetics, and its rate constant's temperature-dependence follows a two parameter model, then, at least theoretically, it is possible to extract these two parameters from two successive experimental concentration ratios determined during the food's non-isothermal storage. This requires numerical solution of two simultaneous equations, themselves the numerical solutions of two differential rate equations, with a program especially developed for the purpose. Once calculated, these parameters can be used to reconstruct the entire degradation curve for the particular temperature history and predict the degradation curves for other temperature histories. The concept and computation method were tested with simulated degradation under rising and/or falling oscillating temperature conditions, employing the exponential model to characterize the rate constant's temperature-dependence. In computer simulations, the method's predictions were robust against minor errors in the two concentration ratios. The program to do the calculations was posted as freeware on the Internet. The temperature profile can be entered as an algebraic expression that can include ‘If’ statements, or as an imported digitized time–temperature data file, to be converted into an Interpolating Function by the program. The numerical solution of the two simultaneous equations requires close initial guesses of the exponential model's parameters. Programs were devised to obtain these initial values by matching the two experimental concentration ratios with a generated degradation curve whose parameters can be varied manually with sliders on the screen. These programs too were made available as freeware on the Internet and were tested with published data on vitamin A.