吕二沟小流域水土保持措施对径流和侵蚀产沙的影响

以甘肃天水吕二沟流域22年实测水文泥沙数据为基础,从降水～侵蚀产沙、径流～产沙关系入手,统计分析了小流域水土保持措施对径流和侵蚀产沙的影响。结果表明：小流域径流和侵蚀产沙在年内的分布与降水的季节分配和植被生长发育期有关;径流和侵蚀产沙的年际变化是随流域水土保持措施全面实施和小流域林草植被面积的增加,流域径流量和侵蚀产沙量逐渐减少。从单次降水～径流、降水～侵蚀产沙关系曲线来看,小流域水土保持措施发挥着明显的减水、减沙效益,为流域的综合治理、水土资源的合理开发利用提供科学依据。     

黄土高原沟道坝系模型设计方法

在回顾前人研究成果及分析土壤侵蚀模型试验特点的基础上，提出了黄土高原小流域沟道坝系模型设计的方法。认为在水力侵蚀最活跃的黄土高原地区，降雨强度是影响产流产沙的关键因子，从而需要抓住降雨与侵蚀产沙这对主要矛盾，根据降雨侵蚀空间或时问的集积效果来实现模型流域与原型流域产沙特征的相似。为保证沟道坝系地貌演变相似，除降雨历时遵循重力相似条件外，模型降雨产沙关系还应通过借助天然资料率定产沙量比尺的途径与原型相对应。     

Large Scale Probabilistic Drought Characterization Over Europe

A reliable assessment of drought return periods is essential to help decision makers in setting effective drought preparedness and mitigation measures. However, often an inferential approach is unsuitable to model the marginal or joint probability distributions of drought characteristics, such as drought duration and accumulated deficit, due to the relatively limited number of drought events that can be observed in the historical records of the hydrological variables of interest. As an alternative, the marginal and multivariate probability cdf’s of drought characteristics can be derived as functions of the parameters of the cdf of the underlying variable (e.g. precipitation), whose sample series is usually long enough to obtain trustworthy estimates in a statistical sense. In this study, the latter methodology is applied to investigate space-time variability of drought occurrences over Europe by using the CRU TS3.10.01 precipitation dataset for the period 1901–2009. In particular, a methodology able to take into account autocorrelation in the underlying precipitation series is adopted. First, a spatial analysis of historical droughts at European level is carried out. Then, the joint probability distributions of drought duration and accumulated deficit are derived for each cell, with reference to both historical and design drought events. Finally, the corresponding bivariate drought return periods are computed, as the expected values of the interarrival time between consecutive critical droughts.Results show that several heavy drought episodes have widely affected the continent. Among the most recent events, drought occurred during the period 1985–1995 was the worst in terms of extent of the regions characterized by return periods greater than 250 years. Besides Euro-Mediterranean regions, North Western and Central Eastern regions appear more drought prone than the rest of Europe, in terms of low values of return periods.     

乌兰木伦河流域暴雨产沙分析研究

乌兰木伦河流域位于沙粗沙地区，其产流，产沙变化具有独特的规律。本文用考虑雨强时空分布的超渗产流模型及胜前期影响雨量为参数分别就涨水、落水段的含沙星 与流量关系的流域沙经验模型以计算产流量和产沙量，效果良好，基本满足实用要求，具有生价值，也可应用于同类流域。     

干旱事件重现期计算问题研究

干旱重现期大小是用于评价干旱事件严重程度的重要指标。干旱重现期的计算涉及给定阈值下干旱过程划分(识别)、样本系列分布函数拟合等关键环节,其中干旱阈值的确定是前提。提出以干旱事件的最长调查期为约束条件确定干旱阈值的思路,即根据样本计算的干旱事件最大重现期不应超过最长调查期,以此为据确定干旱阈值并从样本序列中识别干旱事件。同时,针对因干旱历时样本经验点据"平台式"过度集中而导致的频率曲线适线困难问题,建议采用基于游程理论的游程长度分布函数估计干旱历时概率分布。以青海民和县1932年-2010年的月降雨资料为例,对上述方法进行了应用研究,结合Copula函数计算了干旱事件的重现期。     

清光绪初年山西极端干旱事件重建与分析

基于清宫雨雪分寸记录和现代农业气象站资料,利用水量平衡原理与土壤物理入渗模型,定量重建了清光绪初年（1875-1878年）极端干旱背景下山西省95个县区的季、年降水量,验证了重建结果的可靠性。基于重建降水量,利用降水距平百分率干旱指数分析了极端干旱的时空演变过程。结果表明：在时间上,1875-1877年为连续三年大旱,且呈逐年加重趋势,其中,1877年为极端干旱年;季节性连旱明显,1875年夏秋冬连旱,1876-1877年夏秋连旱,其中1877年最为严重,出现全省性重旱、特旱。在空间上,干旱分布大致经历了由中东部地区和西部地区演变至北部,再到南部和中东部地区的过程,其中中东部和南部地区干旱最为严重。历史典型场次极端干旱事件的重建研究对于定量复原历史干旱事件具有重要的现实意义,在应对区域干旱巨灾风险方面具有重要的参考价值。     

人工降雨条件下扰动坡面土壤侵蚀规律研究

应用人工模拟降雨实验,拟定3种不同雨强对砂土、粉壤土、石质土和黏土4种`不同土壤质地扰动坡面产流产沙规律进行研究。结果表明：地表径流的产流开始时间随着雨强的增加缩短,在3.3~24.9min之间变化;坡上、坡中、坡下的径流流速呈现递增的趋势,但是整个坡面的单位水流功率在降雨过程中变化不大;石质土和黏土的产沙量最大,且在降雨过程中呈现先增后减的趋势,而砂土和粉壤土的产沙量不大且呈现增加的趋势;同一坡度同样降水量情况下产沙量呈现石质土>粉壤土>砂土的规律;黏土坡面的产沙量随着雨强的增大而增大。     

无定河坡面措施减沙和拦粗泥沙量分析

提出了一个新的反映降雨侵蚀作用的指标,并利用无定河实测输沙量资料和前人用水保法估算的水利水保措施年减沙量,建立了流域产沙与降雨和风蚀气候因子的关系。通过与前人用水保法估算的水利水保措施年减沙量对比分析,发现坡面措施拦沙量应比水保法所得的估计量大。进一步计算出产沙中的粗泥沙量,并与坡面和沟道措施拦沙量建立关系,发现坡面措施的拦沙中粗泥沙比例平均在42%以上,而坝库拦沙中只有约32%。无定河流域坡面措施在措施拦减粗泥沙中所占的比例越来越高。由于坡面措施效益期长,拦粗效率高,所以未来应大力发展坡面措施,以达到长期有效控制水土流失的目的。     

复杂侵蚀环境下分布式土壤流失水动力学模型——以黄河多沙粗沙区为研究实例

以黄河多沙粗沙区为研究对象,基于实体模型试验对黄土坡面 沟道系统侵蚀产沙机理的认识,根据侵蚀动力学、水文学、泥沙运动力学的基本理论,以地理信息系统为平台,研发了复杂侵蚀环境下的分布式土壤流失水动力学模型;揭示了植被作用下坡面 - 沟道系统侵蚀产沙耦合规律;认识到坡沟产沙之间具有内在的自调控关系;提出了当量糙率的概念;建立了基于 GIS 的分布式土壤流失水动力学模型;构建了基于 ArcGIS 平台的支持系统,实现了 GIS 与土壤流失模型、产汇流模型与产输沙模型的紧密耦合。通过实例验证了模型对于中尺度流域土壤流失的模拟亦有较满意的精度。     

RECONSTRUCTION OF PRECIPITATION SERIES AND ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PAST 500 YEARS IN NORTHERN CHINA

It is important and necessary to get a much longer precipitation series in order to research features of drought/flood and climate change. Based on dryness and wetness grades series of 18 stations in Northern China of 533 years from 1470 to 2002, the Moving Cumulative Frequency Method （MCFM） was developed, moving average precipitation series from 1499 to 2002 were reconstructed by testing three kinds of average precipitation, and the features of ell mate change and dry and wet periods were researched by using reconstructed precipitation series in the present paper. The results showed that there were good relationship between the reconstructed precipitation series and the observation precipiration series sincc 1954 and their relative root mean-square error were below 1.89%, that the relation between reconstructed series and the dryness and wetness grades series were nonlinear and this nonlinear relation implied that reconstructed series were reliable and could became foundation data for researching evolution of the drought and flood. Analysis of climate change upon reconstructed precipitation series revealed that although drought intensity of recent dry period from mid- dle 1970s of 20th century until early 21st century was not the strongest in historical climate of Northern China, intensity and duration of wet period was a great deal decreasing and shortening respectively, climate evolve to aridification situa- tion in Northern China.     

Modeling and analysis of effects of precipitation and vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield in Jinsha River Basin

This paper focuses on the effects of precipitation and vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield in the Jinsha River Basin. Results of regression analysis were taken as input variables to investigate the applicability of the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to simulating annual runoff and sediment yield. Correlation analysis indicates that runoff and sediment yield are positively correlated with the precipitation indices, while negatively correlated with the vegetation indices. Furthermore, the results of stepwise regression show that annual precipitation is the most important factor influencing the variation of runoff, followed by forest coverage, and their contributions to the variation of runoff are 69.8% and 17.3%, respectively. For sediment yield, rainfall erosivity is the most important factor, followed by forest coverage, and their contributions to the variation of sediment yield are 49.3% and 24.2%, respectively. The ANFIS model is of high precision in runoff forecasting, with a relative error of less than 5%, but of poor precision in sediment yield forecasting, indicating that precipitation and vegetation coverage can explain only part of the variation of sediment yield, and that other impact factors, such as human activities, should be sufficiently considered as well.     

黄河流域近百年产沙情势变化

基于实测降雨、水文、坝库拦沙、灌溉引沙和河道冲淤等数据,分析了1919-2016年黄河潼关以上流域实际产沙量、产沙强度和不同时期下垫面在多年平均降雨情况下的产沙能力变化。结果表明,20世纪30年代以后,流域产沙能力逐渐增大,至50~70年代达到顶峰;80~90年代以后,流域产沙逐渐减少,其中2010-2016年流域产沙强度只有1919-1939年的23%。1919-2016年流域年均产沙量为13.7亿t。在多年平均降雨和1919-1953年下垫面情况下,潼关年均来沙量应约为14.6亿t;至1956-1975年,该值达到16.6亿t。     

长江流域气象干旱演变特征及未来变化趋势预估

基于长江流域及周边范围在内的318个气象站点1956—2018年的实测资料和CMIP5全球气候模式在3种RCPs情景下的预估数据,以标准化降水蒸散发指数作为干旱等级的划分指标,对流域历史气象干旱时空演变特征进行了分析,并预估了流域未来不同排放情景下的气象干旱时空变化趋势。结果表明:①近60 a,流域干旱率年际变化较大,平均干旱率为18.21%。从年代变化来看,近20 a干旱影响范围普遍较大;干旱频发地区主要位于岷江流域,干旱次数呈从上游向下游递减的趋势;高强度的干旱多发生于金沙江中下游地区和成都平原地区,平均场次干旱强度也呈从上游向下游递减的趋势;②在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,2020—2050年长江流域多年平均干旱面积分别为74.1万km²、75.7万km²和126.4万km²;流域上、中、下游干旱频次多年平均值分别为1.1~1.2次/a、1.0~1.1次/a、1.0~1.1次/a。预估时段内上、中、下游干旱频次较历史时段分别增加38.4%~50.7%,33.7%~45.3%和32.6%~49.6%;预估时段内上、中、下游干旱强度多年平均值分别为-1.68,-1.64,-1.60,与历史时段差别不大。研究结果可为相关部门制订科学合理的干旱灾害防范措施和对策提供科学依据。     

降水因素导致的水分亏缺对冬小麦产量影响的敏感期分析

降水是影响华北平原冬小麦产量的重要因子之一,该区域生长季降水无法满足冬小麦生长需求是造成粮食减产的主要因素。本研究设计不同降水情景,基于 CERES-Wheat 模型模拟不同水分亏缺情景下冬小麦生长发育过程,识别降水对冬小麦产量影响的关键期。研究发现: 不同持续时间的无降水对产量的影响存在较大差异,由 1 ～4 周不降水引起的水分亏缺对冬小麦造成的减产率范围为 3. 1% ～29. 7%。超过 2 周不降水引起的降水亏缺对冬小麦产量造成显著影响。播种－越冬期后期( 0～16 周) ,冬小麦不同生育阶段发生 1～4 周的无降水对减产率的影响差异较小; 从越冬期后期开始,1～4 周的的无降水造成的减产率差异显著增大。太行山山麓平原区、冀鲁豫低洼平原区、山东丘陵农林区在冬小麦生育期内存在三个较大的减产率峰值期,分别是越冬期后期、返青期前期、拔节－灌浆期。黄淮平原区在冬小麦生育期内存在两较大的减产率峰值区,分别在返青期、灌浆期周围。区域上不同持续时间的无降水造成的冬小麦减产率研究,能够为作物干旱影响评估和节水灌溉提供有益借鉴。     

黄河中游分布式水沙耦合模型研究

针对黄河中游多沙粗沙区的产流产沙特点,在建立逐网格汇流的水文模型的基础上,构建了逐网格汇沙的土壤侵蚀模型,通过水文模型和土壤侵蚀模型有机耦合,实现了泥沙的产生和汇集的分布式计算。由于模型采用逐网格汇流汇沙的方式进行模拟,使得考虑上方来水来沙对产输沙的影响成为可能。根据研究区的特点,模型在土壤侵蚀过程的模拟中,对重力侵蚀的模拟进行了尝试。经黄河中游小理河流域实测资料验证,模型具有一定的计算精度。     

粗糙度对坡面侵蚀及泥沙分选性影响试验研究

为进一步揭示土壤侵蚀的内在规律,以某一试验小区为例,通过模拟不同地表粗糙度,分析了不同雨强条件下的坡面侵蚀产沙及泥沙颗粒粒径变化特征。结果表明:相同雨强和降雨历时下,粗糙度对坡面径流率、水流功率、径流含沙量和产沙率有显著影响;侵蚀泥沙的搬运形式与雨强和粗糙度均有关,而不同泥沙颗粒搬运方式是引起不同粗糙度坡面侵蚀产沙分异的重要原因。因此,坡面侵蚀产沙模型中应综合考虑地表粗糙度和泥沙粒径信息。研究成果可为水土保持规划设计和水土保持措施优化配置提供一定依据。     

一种新的干旱预测指标在贵州旱情评价中的应用

为了分析适用于贵州省的干旱判别指标,对月尺度、季尺度、年尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI）、降水成数（Deciles）、干旱侦测指数RDIst进行比较分析。1951~2010年60 a的气象资料和1984~1989年连旱期间资料的分析结果表明：降水系列的分布越均匀,SPI与Deciles的相关关系越好;由于季尺度的RDIst考虑了蒸发因素对干旱的作用,对实际情况的反映最好,优于在我国广泛使用的SPI指标;Deciles对降水的敏感度高,月尺度和季尺度的Deciles指标不适合在贵州地区应用;年尺度的Deciles则最能反映干旱过程在历史系列中的严重程度。     

Influence of Precipitation Changes on the SPI and Related Drought Severity. An Analysis Using Long-Term Data Series

Drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are used to quantify drought severity. Due to the SPI probabilistic and standardized nature, a given value of SPI computed in distinct time periods or locations indicates the same relative drought severity but corresponds to different amounts of precipitation. Thus, the present study aims at contributing for a comprehensive analysis of the influence of long-term precipitation variability on drought assessment by the SPI. Long records of monthly precipitation, spanning from 1863 to 2007 in several locations across Portugal, were divided into 30 years sub-periods and the SPI with 12-month time scale (SPI-12) was computed for each sub-period and for the entire period of records. The probability distributions adjusted to precipitation in those different time periods were compared envisaging to detect the SPI sensitivity to the reference period and, therefore, to changes in precipitation. Precipitation thresholds relative to the upper limits of SPI-12 drought categories were obtained and the influence of the time period was investigated. Results have shown that when SPI values derived from the full data record for a recent time period are lower/higher than the SPI values derived from data of the considered time period a recent downward/upward shift of precipitation has occurred. Coherently, a common pattern of drought aggravation from the initial until the more recent period was not detected. However, in southern locations, lower precipitation thresholds of the SPI drought categories were generally found in the more recent period, particularly for more severe drought categories, whereas in the northern locations Porto and Montalegre, an increase was detected. The impacts of the reference period on the computed SPI drought severity and frequency are shown, bringing to discussion the need for updating ´normal´ conditions when long term precipitation records are available and precipitation changes are observed.     

黄河无定河流域“2017.7.26”洪水泥沙来源辨析

2017年7月25—26日无定河流域降大到暴雨,支流大理河发生建站以来的最大洪水,无定河下游形成高含沙洪水。为深入认识“7.26”暴雨无定河流域产沙和输沙等情况,选择典型小流域进行了侵蚀调查和淤地坝拦沙观测,对城区淤积及河道冲刷进行了调查和测量,采用不同方法对坡面和沟谷产沙进行分析。结果表明,无定河“2017.7.26”暴雨分布集中,单站最大24 h降雨量近100年一遇,无定河白家川水文站洪峰流量为建站以来第二大值,相应最大含沙量873 kg/m3; 洪水期输沙量64.1%来自大理河流域; 以闷葫芦淤地坝拦沙分析为依据,推算“2017.7.26”暴雨期无定河流域侵蚀产沙量约为1.249亿t,其中70%~85%来自沟谷坡,在泥沙沿程输移过程中,淤地坝拦沙对减少河道输沙入黄起重要作用。     

黄土与紫色土抗侵蚀机制试验研究

应用人工模拟降雨试验,在同等试验条件下对黄土和紫色土坡面产流及产沙特征进行了对比研究。研究发现黄土坡面属于超渗产流,坡面发育较深的侵蚀沟;紫色土属于蓄满产流,坡面沟道不发育或发育微弱,且同等条件下黄土的坡面侵蚀量远大于紫色土。在制订保土措施时,应结合土壤特征选择适当的方法,以达到理想的效果。