工业物联网中基于机器学习方法的预测技术

随着传感器网络等技术在工业领域的不断拓展,工业物联网技术得到了长足发展。工业物联网及基于工业物联网的数据分析与预测是工业智能系统的基础。文中关注在工业互联网环境下,工业智能系统在训练阶段利用有监督的机器学习方法,将工艺参数以及环境参数作为输入,将生产过程关注的关键性能指标作为输出,从而对生产线复杂系统进行建模;在生产阶段利用训练阶段的系统模型及当前输入对关键性能指标进行预测。分别利用多元线性回归和非线性BP神经网络方法建模,并利用当前输入对输出结果进行预测,从而对关键性能指标进行预警及预处理操作。同时还利用真实的工业物联网数据进行了仿真和验证,证明了基于BP神经网络的预测方法性能优于线性预测技术。     

基于SSC-BP神经网络的异常检测算法

针对物联网环境下产生的新型网络攻击的数量持续上升和复杂性不断升高,传统的异常检测算法误报率高、检测率低以及数据量大而造成计算困难等问题,提出了一种基于子空间聚类(Subspace Clustering,SSC)和BP神经网络相结合的异常检测算法.首先在网络数据集上通过子空间聚类算法中最常用的CLIQUE算法得到不同的子空间;其次对不同子空间中的数据进行BP神经网络异常检测,计算预测误差值,通过与预先设定好的精度进行比较,来不断更新阈值进行修正,以达到提高识别网络攻击的能力.仿真实验采用NSL-KDD公开数据集和物联网环境下的网络攻击数据集,将NSL-KDD公开数据集分割为4种单一攻击子集和1种混合攻击子集,通过与K-means,DBSCAN,SSC-EA以及k-KNN异常检测模型进行比较,在混合攻击子集中,SSC-BP神经网络模型的检测率比传统的K-means模型的检测率提高了6％,误检率降低了0.2％;而在4种单一攻击子集中,SSC-BP神经网络模型都能以最低的误检率检测出最多的受到攻击的网络.在物联网环境下的网络攻击数据集上,SSC-BP神经网络模型的性能均优于其他几种对比模型.     

PSO-BP神经网络的电力负荷预测研究

以提升电力负荷预测精度以及实时性为目标,设计粒子群-反向传播神经网络的电力负荷预测方法。该方法预处理历史电力负荷数据,过滤错误数据以及异常数据,归一化处理剩余数据;将归一化处理后数据视为粒子群优化算法的粒子,利用粒子跟踪局部最优值以及全局最优值实现每次迭代过程中粒子速度与位置更新;利用改进非线性动态自适应算法确定最佳惯性权重提升电力负荷预测精度,建立包含输入层、隐含层以及输出层的三层前馈BP神经网络;将粒子群优化算法所输出粒子信息设置为BP神经网络初始阈值以及初始权值训练BP神经网络,直至满足迭代终止条件,输出电力负荷预测结果。选取某电力公司作为实例分析对象,实例分析结果表明,采用该方法预测电力负荷预测精度高于99%,预测时间开销低于150 ms。     

一种基于非参数回归的交通速度预测方法

非参数回归模型是近年来提出的一种交通状态预测模型。为进一步提高预测精度,基于非参数回归模型的特点,针对近邻状态的选取问题,提出了基于速度变化趋势和密集度的变K近邻精确搜索策略,对原有模型的近邻匹配方式进行了改进和优化,进而提出了一种短时交通平均速度预测模型。利用北京市浮动车系统数据对算法精度进行了验证,结果表明,该模型的预测精度优于基础的非参数回归和BP神经网络模型,并能为短时交通速度预测提供可行的结果。     

面向高维混合不平衡信贷数据的单类分类方法

为实现对高维混合、不平衡信贷数据中的不良贷款者的准确预测,从降维预处理和分类算法两方面进行优化,提出一种基于混合数据主成分分析（Principal Component Analysis of Mixed Data,PCAmix）预处理的单类[K]近邻[（K]-Nearest Neighbor,[KNN）]计算均值算法。针对传统的主成分分析（Principal Component Analysis,PCA）不能直接处理定性变量的问题,使用PCAmix降维预处理数据,为规避不平衡数据在二分类模型中性能较差的缺点,采用单类分类和[K]近邻算法邻居计算的思想,仅采用多数类训练模型。利用Bootstrap方法找到最佳的决策边界,使得正负样本最大限度地分离,最终准确预测客户的违约风险。采用UCI数据库中的German和Default个人信用评分数据集进行验证,实验结果表明该算法在处理高维混合、不平衡的信贷数据上具有较好的分类效果。     

基于滑动平均预处理的BP网络储层识别方法

在油气勘探开发领域的储层识别研究中,神经网络技术是一种有效的工具。根据BP神经网络的逼近原理,提出了基于滑动平均预处理的BP神经网络储层识别方法。首先对学习样本中的每一组样本数据按照一定规则选取近邻点,然后根据近邻点信息,使用滑动平均的方法进行预处理得到新的样本数据,最后使用新的学习样本训练BP网络,进行储层判识。实验结果表明,该方法具有简单、高效、学习速度快的优点,能极大提高识别速度和预测精度。     

基于改进BP神经网络的航空液压油软测量

BP 神经网络越来越多地被应用于软测量建模中,与传统方法相比,BP神经网络进行信息处理可以减少数据的分析和建模工作,但也存在易于陷入局部最小值和初始权值随机选取的缺陷问题;为了解决传统BP神经网络存在的缺陷,文中在数据预处理过程中引入主成分分析法(PCA),在BP网络输入权值时引入遗传算法(GA),最终达到弥补BP神经网络缺陷的目的;详细介绍了改进算法的流程与步骤,将改进的BP神经网络应用于航空液压油的软测量,先是对航空液压油软测量参数进行分析,包括辅助变量的选择和数据预处理,然后进行基于改进型BP神经网络的建模与仿真实验;实验结果表明,基于改进BP神经网络的航空液压油软测量效果优于传统神经网络,具有更强的泛化能力,因此可进行更广泛的应用。     

基于Adaboost算法和BP神经网络的税收预测

针对传统税收预测模型精度较低的问题,提出一种将Adaboost算法和BP神经网络相结合进行税收预测的方法。该方法首先对历年税收数据进行预处理并初始化测试数据分布权值;然后初始化BP神经网络权值和阈值,并将BP神经网络作为弱预测器对税收数据进行反复训练和调整权值;最后使用Adaboost算法将得到的多个BP神经网络弱预测器组成新的强预测器并进行预测。通过对我国1990—2010年税收数据进行仿真实验,结果表明该方法相比传统BP网络预测,平均误差相对值从0.50%减少到0.18%,有效地降低了单个BP陷入局部极小的影响,提高了网络预测精度。     

遗传算法优化BP神经网络的网络流量预测

为了提高网络流量预测精度,提出一种基于遗传算法优化BP神经网络的网络流量预测模型(GA-BPNN)。首先采集网络流量数据,并进行相应预处理,然后将网络流量训练样本输入到BP神经网络进行学习,并采用遗传算法对BP神经网络参数进行优化,最后采用建立的网络流量预测模型对网络流量测试集进行预测,并通过仿真实验对模型性能进行测试。结果表明,GA-BPNN提高了网络流量的预测精度,获得比较理想的网络流量预测结果。     

基于金融时间序列的股票价格预测方法

最近邻算法在时间序列的预测已有实例,虽算法简单易理解,但准确度不高。本文在最近邻法基础上结合BP网络技术,使得在输入神经网络之前对数据起到预处理的作用,并训练神经网络得到最优解。     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。     

How do children do mathematics with LOGO?

Abstract  This paper considers some results of a study designed to investigate the kinds of mathematical activity undertaken by children (aged between 8 and 11) as they learned to program in LOGO. A model of learning modes is proposed, which attempts to describe the ways in which children used and acquired understanding of the programming/mathematical concepts involved. The remainder of the paper is concerned with discussing the validity and limitations of the model, and its implications for further research and curriculum development.