A macroscopic model with the advantages of microscopic model: A review of Cell Transmission Model’s extensions for urban traffic networks

This paper reports a review of the extensions and application of the Cell Transmission Model (CTM). Those extensions are models able to simulate complex urban traffic dynamics with all the advantages of macroscopic and microscopic urban traffic model. Over the past few years researchers have been trying to increase the level of detail by extending CTM and introducing new formulations to improve the application of the model in urban traffic. The authors classified the papers while taking into consideration all those factors characterizing the urban traffic, arterial and intersection traffic flow in particular. One of the primary goals of transport research is to develop a general framework of urban traffic networks that might be applied from a realistic point of view. Recent studies about traffic simulations have shown that, among various macroscopic simulation models, the CTM has the potential to achieve this objective. We have also reported our model the CTM_UT that improves the CTM for Urban Traffic. We believe that it is possible to apply this model to ITS application, hence increase the accuracy of the macroscopic model while maintaining the computational advantages and provide an accurate prediction of travel time approach.     

基于道路风险评估的城市路网实时路径选择

为了缓解城市交通拥堵、避免交通事故的发生,城市路网的路径选择一直以来是一个热门的研究课题.随着边缘计算和车辆智能终端技术的发展,城市路网中的行驶车辆从自组织网络朝着车联网(Internet of vehicles,IoV)范式过渡,这使得车辆路径选择问题从基于静态历史交通数据的计算向实时交通信息计算转变.在城市路网路径选择问题上,众多学者的研究主要聚焦如何提高出行效率,减少出行时间等.然而这些研究并没有考虑所选路径是否存在风险等问题.基于以上问题,首次构造了一个基于边缘计算技术的道路风险实时评估模型(real-time road risk assessment model based on edge computing, R³A-EC),并提出基于该模型的城市路网实时路径选择方法(real-time route selection method based on risk assessment, R²S-RA). R3A-EC模型利用边缘计算技术的低延迟,高可靠性等特点对城市道路进行实时风险评估,并利用最小风险贝叶斯决策验证道路是否存在风险问...     

Non-expected Route Choice Model under Risk on Stochastic Traffic Networks

In this paper, we propose a novel non-expected route travel time (NERTT) model, which belong to the rank-dependent expected utility model. The NERTT consists of two parts, which are the route travel time distribution and the distortion function. With the strictly increasing and strictly concave distortion function, we can prove that the route travel time in the proposed model is risk-averse, which is the main focus of this paper. We show two different reduction methods from the NERTT model to the travel time budget model and mean-excess travel time model. One method is based on the properly selected distortion functions and the other one is based on a general distortion function. Besides, the behavioral inconsistency of the expected utility model in the route choice can be overcome with the proposed model. The NERTT model can also be generalized to the non-expected disutility (NED) model, and some relationship between the NED model and the route choice model based on the cumulative prospect theory can be shown. This indicates that the proposed model has some generality. Finally, we develop a non-expected risk-averse user equilibrium model and formulate it as a variational inequality (VI) problem. A heuristic gradient projection algorithm with column generation is used to solve the VI. The proposed model and algorithm are tested on some hypothetical traffic networks and on some large-scale traffic networks.     

出租车数据的城市道路网路段通行时间估计方法

城市路段通行时间估计能够更好地运营和管理城市交通。针对包含起点-终点位置,行程时间和距离信息的GPS行程数据,提出了一种城市道路网短时通行时间的估计模型。首先将城市道路网按照交叉路口分解为多个路段,并基于k-最短路径搜索方法分析司机行进路线。然后针对每一个路段,提出了双车道通行时间多项式关联关系模型,既能提升道路网通行时间精细度,又能避免因训练数据不足导致的路网通行时间过拟合问题。最后以最小化行程期望时间和实际行程时间之间的均方误差为优化目标,拟合道路网通行时间。在纽约出租车数据集上的实验结果表明,所提模型及方法相对于传统单车道估计方法能够更准确地估计城市道路网路段的通行时间。     

基于神经网络的城市快速路交通拥堵判别算法

针对城市快速路的常发性拥堵和偶发性交通拥堵,提出了一种基于神经网络的自动判别算法.该方法利用改进的自适应梯度算法优化神经网络的权值参数,既能保证神经网络参数收敛到全局最优值,又具有快的学习速度,提高了神经网络的检测效果.利用微观交通仿真软件PARAMICS建立了城市快速路网,通过多次仿真获得了包含各种交通拥堵的学习样本,增强了算法的鲁棒性.将训练好的神经网络对多种实际的交通数据进行了仿真试验.实验结果表明,该算法在城市快速路交通拥堵判别中具有较高的检测率和较低的误报率.     

SALA: A Self-Adaptive Learning Algorithm—Towards Efficient Dynamic Route Guidance in Urban Traffic Networks

In order to alleviate traffic congestion for vehicles in urban networks, most of current researches mainly focused on signal optimization models and traffic assignment models, or tried to recognize the interaction between signal control and traffic assignment. However, these methods may not be able to provide fast and accurate route guidance due to the lack of individual traffic demands, real-time traffic data and dynamic cooperation between vehicles. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a dynamic and real-time route selection model in urban traffic networks (DR2SM), which can supply a more accurate and personalized strategy for vehicles in urban traffic networks. Combining the preference for alternative routes with real-time traffic conditions, each vehicle in urban traffic networks updates its route selection before going through each intersection. Based on its historical experiences and estimation about route choices of the other vehicles, each vehicle uses a self-adaptive learning algorithm to play congestion game with each other to reach Nash equilibrium. In the route selection process, each vehicle selects the user-optimal route, which can maximize the utility of each driving vehicle. The results of the experiments on both synthetic and real-world road networks show that compared with non-cooperative route selection algorithms and three state-of-the-art equilibrium algorithms, DR2SM can effectively reduce the average traveling time in the dynamic and uncertain urban traffic networks.     

Stochastic User Equilibrium Traffic Assignment with Turn-delays in Intersections

Turn-delays in intersections contribute significantly to travel times and thus route choices in urban networks. However, turns are difficult to handle in traffic assignment models due to the asymmetric Jacobian in the cost functions. The paper describes a model where turn delays have been included in the solution algorithm of Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) traffic assignment. When the Jacobian is symmetric, SUE minimises the road users' 'perceived travel resistances'. This is a probit-model where the links cost-functions of the links are traffic dependent. Hereby, overlapping routes are handled in a consistent way. However, no theoretical proof of convergence has been given if the Jacobian is asymmetric, although convergence can be shown probable for model data representing realistic road-networks. However, according to the authors knowledge SUE with intersection delays have not been tested earlier on a full-scale network. Therefore, an essential part of the paper presents practical tests of convergence. Both geometric delays and delays caused by other turns are considered for each turn. Signalised and non-signalised intersections are handled in different ways, as are roundabouts. In signalised intersections a separate model handles queues longer than one green-period. Green-waves can also be taken into consideration. The model has been tested on a large-scale network for Copenhagen with good results. To make it possible to establish the comprehensive data, a GIS-based 'expert system' was implemented (see Nielsen, O.A., Frederiksen, R. D. and Simonsen, N. (1997). Using expert system rules to establish data on intersections and turns in road networks. International Transactions in Operational Research , 5 , 513–529.     

Using Expert System Rules to Establish Data for Intersections and Turns in Road Networks

Delays and restrictions in intersections contribute significantly to the overall travel times in urban traffic networks and therefore also affect route choices. In practice, however, it is quite unusual to include intersection delays in traffic models, logistic models and route guidance systems. Time consuming and tedious data preparation together with the complexity of network updating is the main reason for this, as most transportation software applications can do the necessary calculations. In this paper, we report on the development of a procedure that can automate the task of adding data for intersection delay modelling to an existing network. The method requires a GIS-based network with link attributes as input data. The method has developed as an extension tool applicable to existing networks and therefore supply of additional data is normally not required. By a set of 'expert system rules', the intersections are classified into a number of groups – such as prioritised and signalised intersections, wedges and Y-junctions – and the required input data for turn delay models is established. The method has been tested on large-scale networks with good results. Most of the required data was satisfactorily estimated, although some edits had to be made manually. This was mainly the case for roundabouts and for intersections with a very special geometry. In conclusion, the method greatly reduced the burden establishing data sets for intersection delay modelling in urban traffic networks.     

AOM: adaptive mobile data traffic offloading for M2M networks

With the increasing application of machine-to machine (M2M) communication through cellular networks, such as telematics, smart metering, point-of-sale terminals, and home security, more data traffice has been produced in the cellular network. Although many schemes have been proposed to reduce data traffic, they are inefficient in practical application due to poor adaption. In this paper, we focus on how to adaptively offload data traffic for cellular M2M networks. To this end, we propose an adaptive mobile data traffic offloading model (AOM). This model can decide whether to adopt opportunistic communications or communicate via cellular networks adaptively. In the AOM, we introduce traffic offloading rate (called TOR) and local resource consumption rate (called LRCR) and analyze them based on continue time Markov chain. Theory proof and extensive simulations demonstrate that our model is accurate and effective, and can adaptively offload data traffic of cellular M2M networks.     

Combined Activity/Travel Choice Models: Time-Dependent and Dynamic Versions

To fully understand and predict travel demand and traffic flow, it is necessary to investigate what drives people to travel. The analysis should examine why, where and when various activities are engaged in, and how activity engagement is related to the spatial and institutional organization of an urban area. In view of this, two combined activity/travel choice models are presented in this paper. The first one is a time-dependent (quasi-dynamic) model for long-term transport planning such as travel demand forecasting, while the other one is a dynamic model for short-term traffic management such as instantaneous flow analysis. The time-dependent model is formulated as a mathematical programming problem for modeling the multinomial logit activity/destination choice and the user equilibrium route choice behavior. It can further be converted to a variational inequality problem. On the other hand, the dynamic model is aimed to find a solution for equilibrium activity location, travel route and departure time choices in queuing networks with multiple commuter classes. It is formulated as a discrete-time, finite-dimensional variational inequality and then converted to an equivalent zero-extreme value minimization problem. Solution algorithms are proposed for these two models and numerical example is presented for the latter. It is shown that the proposed modeling approaches, either based on time-dependent or dynamic traffic assignment principles, provide powerful tools to a wide variety of activity/travel choice problems in dynamic domain.     

双参卷积理论模型预测交通通行时间

随着城市经济的发展和人们生活节奏的加快,智慧交通领域针对出行时间的研究已经成为热点问题。出行前预估行程中的通行时间便于人们更合理地规划出行路径,基于时间状态特征的路径规划就是解决交通问题的重要手段之一。现有模型多关注于车辆到达时间或多结合于真实历史时间数据进行预测,对浮动车的运行状态、车速等是否对时间存在影响的问题研究较少。基于此现状,提出了一种基于状态特征的道路时间预测模型,在固定时段内,利用出租车载客与否情况对轨迹数据进行深度相关性分析,结合车辆行驶速度构建一个基于密度划分的双参卷积理论模型,用得到的最终速度值对通行时间进行计算。实验结果表明该模型算法与传统时间预测算法相比有更高的精确度和实用性,提高了人们对出行安排的合理化和层次化,对制定城市道路出行策略具有重要的意义。     

Computation and application of the paired combinatorial logit stochastic user equilibrium problem

The paired combinatorial logit (PCL) model is one of the recent extended logit models adapted to resolve the overlapping problem in the route choice problem, while keeping the analytical tractability of the logit choice probability function. However, the development of efficient algorithms for solving the PCL model under congested and realistic networks is quite challenging, since it has large-dimensional solution variables as well as a complex objective function. In this paper, we examine the computation and application of the PCL stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) problem under congested and realistic networks. Specifically, we develop an improved path-based partial linearization algorithm for solving the PCL SUE problem by incorporating recent advances in line search strategies to enhance the computational efficiency required to determine a suitable stepsize that guarantees convergence. A real network in the city of Winnipeg is applied to examine the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithm and the robustness of various line search strategies. In addition, in order to acquire the practical implications of the PCL SUE model, we investigate the effectiveness of how the PCL model handles the effects of congestion, stochasticity, and similarity in comparison with the multinomial logit stochastic traffic equilibrium problem and the deterministic traffic equilibrium problem.     

基于双层复杂网络的城市交通网络协同优化方法

针对城市交通网络中旅客在公共交通出行路径选择时面临的地铁与公交双层网络在换乘衔接协同中存在的部分换乘站点之间距离过远、衔接导向不明确、局部换乘供需不平衡等问题，提出基于双层复杂网络的城市交通网络协同优化方法。首先，采用逻辑网络拓扑方法对城市交通网络进行拓扑，并基于复杂网络理论建立地铁-公交双层网络模型。然后，以换乘车站为研究对象，提出一种基于K-shell分解法和中心性权重分配的节点重要度评价方法，对大规模网络中的地铁、公交车站进行粗粒度和细粒度划分和识别，并在此基础上提出一种相互激励的双层城市交通网络协同优化方法，即在双层网络结构优化中引入复杂网络理论中对于网络拓扑中节点重要度的识别和筛选方法，通过对路径选择中高集聚效应的识别和有利节点的定位更新双层网络结构以优化现有网络的车站布局和衔接关系。最后，将提出的方法应用于成都市地铁-公交网络，优化了现有网络结构，得到了现有网络的最佳优化节点位置和优化数量，并且通过相关指标系统验证了该方法的有效性。实验结果表明，采用该方法优化32次后的网络全局效率达到最优，和平均最短路径的优化效果分别为15.89%、16.97%，旅客换乘行为提升57.44个百分点；优化方法对旅行成本在8000~12000 m的可达性影响最明显，优化效果平均达到23.44%；同时引入双层网络速度比和单位交通成本比，突出了不同运营状况下交通网络对协同优化过程的反应和敏感度的不同。     

城市路网多路口路径动态实时选择方法

为了缓解城市交通拥堵问题,如何充分利用现有的道路资源进行有效的路线导航,一直是学者们关心的热点问题.现有的研究方法包括：优化交通灯信号周期以增大交通流量;对个别车辆的行驶路线进行优化;利用历史交通数据或者通过路网中心和车辆之间的主从式博弈进行路径导航等.然而,这些研究并没有考虑到微观行驶车辆的个性化交通需求以及多车辆彼此之间的路线选择冲突,对于城市路网中交通状况的动态不确定性也没有充分考虑.基于以上问题,提出了城市交通路网动态实时多路口路径选择模型DR²SM（dynamic and real-time route selection model in urban traffic networks）,结合车辆对前方可选路线的偏好以及可选路线的实时交通状况,并利用自适应学习算法SALA（self-adaptive learning algorithm）进行博弈,以使得各行驶车辆的动态路线选择策略达到Nash均衡.     

A Reliability-Based Stochastic Traffic Assignment Model for Network with Multiple User Classes under Uncertainty in Demand

This paper presents a novel reliability-based stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment model in view of the day-to-day demand fluctuations for multi-class transportation networks. In the model, each class of travelers has a different safety margin for on-time arrival in response to the stochastic travel times raised from demand variations. Travelers' perception errors on travel time are also considered in the model. This model is formulated as an equivalent variational inequality problem, which is solved by the proposed heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications of the proposed model and the efficiency of solution algorithm.     

动态网络环境下的实时路径评估模型

针对现有研究工作在处理动态网络环境下车辆路径问题时的缺陷,设计了一个动态网络模型,并在此基础上提出了一个实时路径评估模型。该评估模型利用道路条件和实时获得的交通信息对网络中的各条道路进行动态评估,并根据评估结果对未走的路径进行动态调整,已用于解决动态车辆路径问题。仿真实验对3种不同的路径评估模型进行了比较,结果表明,所设计的实时路径评估模型能有效地求得动态网络下车辆路径问题的优化解,是求解该问题的一个好的方案。     

改进人工蜂群算法优化RBF神经网络的短时交通流预测

为了提高径向基函数RBF神经网络预测模型对短时交通流的预测准确性,提出了一种基于改进人工蜂群算法优化RBF神经网络的短时交通流预测模型。利用改进人工蜂群算法确定RBF网络隐含层的中心值以及隐含层单元数,然后训练改进的人工蜂群算法RBF神经网络预测模型,并将其应用到某城市4天的短时交通流量数据的验证。将实验结果与传统RBF神经网络预测模型、BP神经网络预测模型和小波神经网络预测模型进行了比较。对比结果表明,该方法对短时交通流具有更高的预测准确性。     

Continuous and Discrete Trajectory Models for Dynamic Traffic Assignment

A continuous trajectory model is presented in which transportation networks are represented as topological constructs. The general formulation enhances existing analytic dynamic traffic assignment models by incorporating continuous single-link traffic flow models in a general, coherent, and relatively intuitive manner. Specific exact formulation based on a simplified kinematic wave traffic flow model with physical queues is presented as well.A discrete trajectory model is proposed as an approximation of the continuous model. The discrete model provides wide flexibility in choosing the level of aggregation with respect to time intervals, ranging from several hours, as typical in current practice of long-term travel forecasting models, to one second or less, as in microscopic simulations. An algorithm to find discrete approximate solutions is presented as well as accuracy measures to evaluate them. The effect of time resolution on model performance is examined by a numerical example.     

基于ANFIS混合模型的短时交通流预测

城市短时交通流预测可以帮助人们选择出行最优路线,提高出行效率,其研究在交通拥堵日益严重的今天十分必要.受天气等多种因素影响,短时交通流的精确预测比较困难,为改善短时交通流预测的精度,本文提出了一种基于自适应模糊推理系统（ANFIS）的混合模型.该混合模型用周期性知识模型及残差数据驱动ANFIS模型集成得到.为验证所提出的混合模型的性能,与倒向传播神经网络（BPNN）模型和普通ANFIS模型进行对比.实验结果证明混合模型在交通流预测方面有更好的适用性和准确度.     

Popular route planning with travel cost estimation from trajectories

With the increasing number of GPS-equipped vehicles,more and more trajectories are generated continuously,based on which some urban applications become feasible,such as route planning.In general,popular route that has been travelled frequently is a good choice,especially for people who are not familiar with the road networks.Moreover,accurate estimation of the travel cost(such as travel time,travel fee and fuel consumption)will benefit a wellscheduled trip plan.In this paper,we address this issue by finding the popular route with travel cost estimation.To this end,we design a system consists of three main components.First,we propose a novel structure,called popular traverse graph where each node is a popular location and each edge is a popular route between locations,to summarize historical trajectories without road network information.Second,we propose a self-adaptive method to model the travel cost on each popular route at different time interval,so that each time interval has a stable travel cost.Finally,based on the graph,given a query consists of source,destination and leaving time,we devise an efficient route planning algorithmwhich considers optimal route concatenation to search the popular route from source to destination at the leaving time with accurate travel cost estimation.Moreover,we conduct comprehensive experiments and implement our system by a mobile App,the results show that our method is both effective and efficient.