Prediction of bankruptcy Iranian corporations through artificial neural network and Probit-based analyses

In this study, multilayer perceptron (MLP) of artificial neural networks is utilized to build a new model for bankruptcy prediction. A precise MLP-based relationship is obtained to classify samples of 136 bankrupt and non-bankrupt Iranian corporations using their financial ratios. A Probit analysis is performed to benchmark the MLP model. Ratios of sales to current assets ratio, operational income to sales, quick assets to total assets, and total liability to total assets are used as the effective predictive financial ratios. A comparative study is further conducted on the classification accuracy of the MLP, Probit, and other existing models. The proposed MLP model has a significantly better performance than the Probit and other models found in the bankruptcy prediction literature.     

A genetic programming model for bankruptcy prediction: Empirical evidence from Iran

Prediction of corporate bankruptcy is a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors/creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Timely identification of firms’ impending failure is indeed desirable. By this time, several methods have been used for predicting bankruptcy but some of them suffer from underlying shortcomings. In recent years, Genetic Programming (GP) has reached great attention in academic and empirical fields for efficient solving high complex problems. GP is a technique for programming computers by means of natural selection. It is a variant of the genetic algorithm, which is based on the concept of adaptive survival in natural organisms. In this study, we investigated application of GP for bankruptcy prediction modeling. GP was applied to classify 144 bankrupt and non-bankrupt Iranian firms listed in Tehran stock exchange (TSE). Then a multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) was used to benchmarking GP model. Genetic model achieved 94% and 90% accuracy rates in training and holdout samples, respectively; while MDA model achieved only 77% and 73% accuracy rates in training and holdout samples, respectively. McNemar test showed that GP approach outperforms MDA to the problem of corporate bankruptcy prediction.     

Formulation of soil angle of shearing resistance using a hybrid GP and OLS method

In the present study, a prediction model was derived for the effective angle of shearing resistance (?′) of soils using a novel hybrid method coupling genetic programming (GP) and orthogonal least squares algorithm (OLS). The proposed nonlinear model relates ?′ to the basic soil physical properties. A comprehensive experimental database of consolidated-drained triaxial tests was used to develop the model. Traditional GP and least square regression analyses were performed to benchmark the GP/OLS model against classical approaches. Validity of the model was verified using a part of laboratory data that were not involved in the calibration process. The statistical measures of correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, and mean absolute percent error were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Sensitivity and parametric analyses were conducted and discussed. The GP/OLS-based formula precisely estimates the ?′ values for a number of soil samples. The proposed model provides a better prediction performance than the traditional GP and regression models.     

A novel bankruptcy prediction model based on an adaptive fuzzy k-nearest neighbor method

Bankruptcy prediction is one of the most important issues in financial decision-making. Constructing effective corporate bankruptcy prediction models in time is essential to make companies or banks prevent bankruptcy. This study proposes a novel bankruptcy prediction model based on an adaptive fuzzy k-nearest neighbor (FKNN) method, where the neighborhood size k and the fuzzy strength parameter m are adaptively specified by the continuous particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach. In addition to performing the parameter optimization for FKNN, PSO is also utilized to choose the most discriminative subset of features for prediction. Adaptive control parameters including time-varying acceleration coefficients (TVAC) and time-varying inertia weight (TVIW) are employed to efficiently control the local and global search ability of PSO algorithm. Moreover, both the continuous and binary PSO are implemented in parallel on a multi-core platform. The proposed bankruptcy prediction model, named PTVPSO-FKNN, is compared with five other state-of-the-art classifiers on two real-life cases. The obtained results clearly confirm the superiority of the proposed model in terms of classification accuracy, Type I error, Type II error and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) criterion. The proposed model also demonstrates its ability to identify the most discriminative financial ratios. Additionally, the proposed model has reduced a large amount of computational time owing to its parallel implementation. Promisingly, PTVPSO-FKNN might serve as a new candidate of powerful early warning systems for bankruptcy prediction with excellent performance.     

Using partial least squares and support vector machines for bankruptcy prediction

The evaluation of corporate financial distress has attracted significant global attention as a result of the increasing number of worldwide corporate failures. There is an immediate and compelling need for more effective financial distress prediction models. This paper presents a novel method to predict bankruptcy. The proposed method combines the partial least squares (PLS) based feature selection with support vector machine (SVM) for information fusion. PLS can successfully identify the complex nonlinearity and correlations among the financial indicators. The experimental results demonstrate its superior predictive ability. On the one hand, the proposed model can select the most relevant financial indicators to predict bankruptcy and at the same time identify the role of each variable in the prediction process. On the other hand, the proposed model’s high levels of prediction accuracy can translate into benefits to financial organizations through such activities as credit approval, and loan portfolio and security management.     

Bankruptcy prediction using SVM models with a new approach to combine features selection and parameter optimisation

Due to the economic significance of bankruptcy prediction of companies for financial institutions, investors and governments, many quantitative methods have been used to develop effective prediction models. Support vector machine (SVM), a powerful classification method, has been used for this task; however, the performance of SVM is sensitive to model form, parameter setting and features selection. In this study, a new approach based on direct search and features ranking technology is proposed to optimise features selection and parameter setting for 1-norm and least-squares SVM models for bankruptcy prediction. This approach is also compared to the SVM models with parameter optimisation and features selection by the popular genetic algorithm technique. The experimental results on a data set with 2010 instances show that the proposed models are good alternatives for bankruptcy prediction.     

Probabilistic modeling and visualization for bankruptcy prediction

In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful studies on bankruptcy detection, seldom probabilistic approaches were carried out. In this paper we assume a probabilistic point-of-view by applying Gaussian processes (GP) in the context of bankruptcy prediction, comparing it against the support vector machines (SVM) and the logistic regression (LR). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical visualization to improve our understanding of the different attained performances, effectively compiling all the conducted experiments in a meaningful way. We complete our study with an entropy-based analysis that highlights the uncertainty handling properties provided by the GP, crucial for prediction tasks under extremely competitive and volatile business environments.     

Financial distress prediction using the hybrid associative memory with translation

This paper presents an alternative technique for financial distress prediction systems. The method is based on a type of neural network, which is called hybrid associative memory with translation. While many different neural network architectures have successfully been used to predict credit risk and corporate failure, the power of associative memories for financial decision-making has not been explored in any depth as yet. The performance of the hybrid associative memory with translation is compared to four traditional neural networks, a support vector machine and a logistic regression model in terms of their prediction capabilities. The experimental results over nine real-life data sets show that the associative memory here proposed constitutes an appropriate solution for bankruptcy and credit risk prediction, performing significantly better than the rest of models under class imbalance and data overlapping conditions in terms of the true positive rate and the geometric mean of true positive and true negative rates.     

CART-based selection of bankruptcy predictors for the logit model

Balance-sheet data offer a potentially large number of candidate predictors of corporate financial failure. In this paper we provide a novel predictor selection procedure based on non-parametric regression and classification tree method (CART) and test its performance within a standard logit model. We show that a simple logit model with dummy variables created in accordance with the nodes of estimated classification tree outperforms both standard logit model with step-wise-selected financial ratios, and CART itself. On a population of Slovenian companies our method achieves remarkable rates of precision in out-of-sample bankruptcy prediction. Our selection method thus represents an efficient way of introducing non-linear effects of predictor variables on the default probability in standard single-index models like logit. These findings are robust to choice-based sampling of estimation samples.     

Ratio Selection for Classification Models

This paper is concerned with the selection of inputs for classification models based on ratios of measured quantities. For this purpose, all possible ratios are built from the quantities involved and variable selection techniques are used to choose a convenient subset of ratios. In this context, two selection techniques are proposed: one based on a pre-selection procedure and another based on a genetic algorithm. In an example involving the financial distress prediction of companies, the models obtained from ratios selected by the proposed techniques compare favorably to a model using ratios usually found in the financial distress literature.     

Bankruptcy forecasting: A hybrid approach using Fuzzy c-means clustering and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)

During the last years, hybrid models have proven to be a promising approach for the design of classification systems for the forecasting of bankruptcy. In the present research we propose a hybrid system which combines fuzzy clustering and MARS. Both models are especially suitable for the bankruptcy prediction problem, due to their theoretical advantages when the information used for the forecasting is drawn from company financial statements. We test the accuracy of our approach in a real setting consisting of a database made up of 59,336 non-bankrupt Spanish companies and 138 distressed firms which went bankrupt during 2007. As benchmarking techniques we used discriminant analysis, MARS and a feed-forward neural network. Our results show that the hybrid model outperforms the other systems, both in terms of the percentage of correct classifications and in terms of the profit generated by the lending decisions.     

An improved boosting based on feature selection for corporate bankruptcy prediction

With the recent financial crisis and European debt crisis, corporate bankruptcy prediction has become an increasingly important issue for financial institutions. Many statistical and intelligent methods have been proposed, however, there is no overall best method has been used in predicting corporate bankruptcy. Recent studies suggest ensemble learning methods may have potential applicability in corporate bankruptcy prediction. In this paper, a new and improved Boosting, FS-Boosting, is proposed to predict corporate bankruptcy. Through injecting feature selection strategy into Boosting, FS-Booting can get better performance as base learners in FS-Boosting could get more accuracy and diversity. For the testing and illustration purposes, two real world bankruptcy datasets were selected to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of FS-Boosting. Experimental results reveal that FS-Boosting could be used as an alternative method for the corporate bankruptcy prediction.     

Measuring and Testing Tail Dependence and Contagion Risk Between Major Stock Markets

Bankruptcy prediction is becoming more and more important issue in financial decision-making. It is essential to make the companies prevent from bankruptcy through building effective corporate bankruptcy prediction model in time. This study proposes an effective bankruptcy prediction model based on the kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). A two-step grid search strategy which integrates the coarse search with the fine search is adopted to train KELM. The resultant bankruptcy prediction model is compared with other five competitive methods including support vector machines, extreme learning machine, random forest, particle swarm optimization enhanced fuzzy k-nearest neighbor and Logit model on the real life dataset via 10-fold cross validation analysis. The obtained results clearly confirm the superiority of the developed model in terms of classification accuracy, Type I error, Type II error and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) criterion. Promisingly, the proposed KELM can serve as a new candidate of powerful early warning systems for bankruptcy prediction with excellent performance.     

Forecasting Financial Failure of Firms via Genetic Algorithms

Given a wide amount of possible ratios available for constructing a LOGIT model for forecasting bankruptcy, this paper provides a computational search methodology, only guided by data, for selecting the financial ratios employed in the model. This procedure is based on genetic algorithms which are used to explore the universe of models made available by all possible existing financial ratios (with very redundant information). This search process of the correct model is guided by the Schwarz information criterion. As an empirical illustration, the methodology is applied to forecasting the failure of firms in the Spanish building industry using annual public accounting information.     

A robust predictive model for base shear of steel frame structures using a hybrid genetic programming and simulated annealing method

This study presents a new empirical model to estimate the base shear of plane steel structures subjected to earthquake load using a hybrid method integrating genetic programming (GP) and simulated annealing (SA), called GP/SA. The base shear of steel frames was formulated in terms of the number of bays, number of storey, soil type, and situation of braced or unbraced. A classical GP model was developed to benchmark the GP/SA model. The comprehensive database used for the development of the correlations was obtained from finite element analysis. A parametric analysis was carried out to evaluate the sensitivity of the base shear to the variation of the influencing parameters. The GP/SA and classical GP correlations provide a better prediction performance than the widely used UBC code and a neural network-based model found in the literature. The developed correlations may be used as quick checks on solutions developed by deterministic analyses.     

基于新闻文本的上市公司财务困境组合预测模型

已有上市公司财务困境预测模型主要是基于结构化数据进行研究,为进一步提高上市公司财务困境预测模型准确率,本文将非结构化数据引入上市公司财务困境预测问题中,研究了基于新闻文本分类的上市公司财务困境预测模型,结合新闻文本信息和财务信息提出上市公司财务困境组合预测模型。本文首先将新闻数据进行预处理,然后基于新闻文本数据通过支持向量机（SVM）进行财务困境预测,同时基于财务数据通过Logistic模型进行财务困境预测,最后采用阈值表决集成策略整合两种模型的预测结果,实验结果证明了模型的有效性。     

Hybrid genetic algorithm and fuzzy clustering for bankruptcy prediction

In the design of a financial bankruptcy prediction model, financial ratio selection and classifier design play major roles. Methodology based on expert opinion, statistical theory and computational intelligence technique has been widely applied. In this study, a hybrid structure integrating statistical theory and computational intelligence technique was developed using genetic algorithm (GA) with statistical measurements and fuzzy logic based fitness functions for key ratio selection. A fuzzy clustering algorithm was used for the classifier design. In the experiments, two financial ratio sets, one extracted from the suggestions of other studies and the other obtained by using the GA toolbox in the SAS statistical software package, were applied to examine the proposed ratio selection schemes. For classifier design, the developed fuzzy classifier was compared with the well known BPNN classifier frequently used in other studies. Besides, comparison between the developed hybrid structure and other well applied structures was also given. Experimental results based on one to four years of financial data prior to the occurrence of bankruptcy were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed prediction model.     

Enhanced default risk models with SVM+

Default risk models have lately raised a great interest due to the recent world economic crisis. In spite of many advanced techniques that have extensively been proposed, no comprehensive method incorporating a holistic perspective has hitherto been considered. Thus, the existing models for bankruptcy prediction lack the whole coverage of contextual knowledge which may prevent the decision makers such as investors and financial analysts to take the right decisions. Recently, SVM+ provides a formal way to incorporate additional information (not only training data) onto the learning models improving generalization. In financial settings examples of such non-financial (though relevant) information are marketing reports, competitors landscape, economic environment, customers screening, industry trends, etc. By exploiting additional information able to improve classical inductive learning we propose a prediction model where data is naturally separated into several structured groups clustered by the size and annual turnover of the firms. Experimental results in the setting of a heterogeneous data set of French companies demonstrated that the proposed default risk model showed better predictability performance than the baseline SVM and multi-task learning with SVM.     

Exploring the synergetic effects of sample types on the performance of ensembles for credit risk and corporate bankruptcy prediction

Credit risk and corporate bankruptcy prediction has widely been studied as a binary classification problem using both advanced statistical and machine learning models. Ensembles of classifiers have demonstrated their effectiveness for various applications in finance using data sets that are often characterized by imperfections such as irrelevant features, skewed classes, data set shift, and missing and noisy data. However, there are other corruptions in the data that might hinder the prediction performance mainly on the default or bankrupt (positive) cases, where the misclassification costs are typically much higher than those associated to the non-default or non-bankrupt (negative) class. Here we characterize the complexity of 14 real-life financial databases based on the different types of positive samples. The objective is to gain some insight into the potential links between the performance of classifier ensembles (BAGGING, AdaBoost, random subspace, DECORATE, rotation forest, random forest, and stochastic gradient boosting) and the positive sample types. Experimental results reveal that the performance of the ensembles indeed depends on the prevalent type of positive samples.     

Ensemble boosted trees with synthetic features generation in application to bankruptcy prediction

Bankruptcy prediction has been a subject of interests for almost a century and it still ranks high among hottest topics in economics. The aim of predicting financial distress is to develop a predictive model that combines various econometric measures and allows to foresee a financial condition of a firm. In this domain various methods were proposed that were based on statistical hypothesis testing, statistical modeling (e.g., generalized linear models), and recently artificial intelligence (e.g., neural networks, Support Vector Machines, decision tress). In this paper, we propose a novel approach for bankruptcy prediction that utilizes Extreme Gradient Boosting for learning an ensemble of decision trees. Additionally, in order to reflect higher-order statistics in data and impose a prior knowledge about data representation, we introduce a new concept that we refer as to synthetic features. A synthetic feature is a combination of the econometric measures using arithmetic operations (addition, subtraction, multiplication, division). Each synthetic feature can be seen as a single regression model that is developed in an evolutionary manner. We evaluate our solution using the collected data about Polish companies in five tasks corresponding to the bankruptcy prediction in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th year. We compare our approach with the reference methods.