Population changes in southern Manitoba: trends and policy implications 1971-1991

"This study analyzes the patterns and trends in rural and urban population change in Southern Manitoba [Canada] and the Winnipeg region between 1971 and 1991. Census data for five-year intervals is analyzed and compared and conclusions are drawn about major influences at work. The conclusions reached in this study are considered within the context of broader regional, national, and international trends of rural and urban population change. In addition, the issues, conflicts, and governmental policy surrounding exurban development are briefly addressed." (EXCERPT)     

A spatial equilibrium model for region size,urbanization ratio,and rural structure

"Earlier economic models of city size have either focused on urban agglomeration effects while ignoring the spatial structure of the rural hinterland, or made unrealistic assumptions (for example, uniform rural population distribution) so as to simplify the problem. Following the classic von Thunen framework, we present a two-sector spatial equilibrium model of a city located at the center of an agricultural hinterland. The city produces industrial goods, and the rural area produces agricultural goods. Both goods are consumed both by urban and by rural residents. Market equilibrium for these goods determines: (1) the spatial size of the region, (2) the urbanization ratio (urban to total population) and the population size of the city, and (3) the rural spatial structure (wage, population distribution, land rent, and agricultural yield). Given various sets of exogenous parameters pertaining to the industrial, agricultural, and transportation production functions and to population preferences, the model is solved numerically, and response functions are estimated and analyzed."     

Analysis of urban-rural population dynamics of China: a multiregional life table approach

Multiregional life tables at various ages developed by Rogers and Willekins are used to examine the urban and rural dynamics of population (fertility and out-migration expectations) in China. Period-cohort survival rates are used in the calculation of survival probability. A unit radix is assumed in the calculation of the life table for each age. The life expectation of the female population a birth is 73.59 years in urban areas and 72.46 in rural areas. Male life expectancy is 69.73 years in urban areas and 58.99 in rural areas. Life expectancies are higher for rural males aged over 20 years and females aged over 60 years because of urban and rural differences in out-migration and mortality rates. Life expectancy for the rural males over age 60 is 16.55 and for urban males over age 60 is 16.00. Rural females over age 70 have a life expectancy of 12.25 years and urban females over age 70 have a life expectancy of 12.04 years. In the calculation of fertility expectations, the occurrence-exposure fertility rates of period cohorts are estimated from the forward fertility rates of period cohorts by means of forward mortality rates. The occurrence-exposure fertility rate of life table cohort y is calculated from the occurrence-exposure fertility rates of period cohorts r (y) and r(y + 1). A female born in an urban area is expected to have 1.82 children in an urban area and .06 children in a rural area. A female born in a rural area is expected to have 2.10 children in a rural area and .35 children in an urban area. Rural population has a much higher net reproduction rate than urban population. In the calculation of the net migraproduction (spatial out-migration expectation), forward out-migration rates of period cohorts are used for estimation of occurrence-exposure out-migration rates of period cohorts. Mortality rates are included in the calculation of population at risk. Out-migration rates are modified to account for nonsurvival migrants using mortality rates of the destination region. The occurrence-exposure out-migration rate of the life table cohort y is estimated similarly as the fertility rates of life table cohorts. A female born in an urban area is likely to make .0451 migrations out of the region; a female born in a rural region is likely to make .3491 out-migrations. A male born in an urban area is likely to make .0475 out-migrations; a male born in a rural area is likely to make .2903 out-migrations.     

Modelling urban-rural population growth in China

"The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China.... An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established.... These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions."     

Preference matching,income, and population distribution in urban and adjacent rural regions

We analyse the impact of preference matching and income on the distribution of the population in an aggregate economy of an urban and an adjacent rural region. It costs more (less) to live in the urban (rural) region. Individuals choose to live either in the urban or in the rural region. They differ in their incomes. These incomes are uniformly distributed on the unit interval. Our analysis leads to four results. First, when the cost differential parameter satisfies a condition, both regions are occupied in the equilibrium. Second, when this parametric condition holds, in any equilibrium in which the mean income of individuals varies across the two regions, every resident of the rural region has a lower income than every resident of the urban region. Third, there exists an income threshold and all individuals with higher (lower) incomes choose to live in the urban (rural) region. Finally, in the equilibrium with income sorting, it is possible to make everyone better off by slightly modifying their residential choices.     

Urban growth effects on rural population, export and service employment: evidence from eastern France

This paper examines how the spatial pattern of urban growth in functional economic regions influences the interplay of rural export employment, rural services employment, and population change in rural areas. Using an extension of the Boarnet’s model (Papers in Regional Science 73:135–153, 1994), we find that urban spread effects to rural areas in France are more likely than urban backwash effects, and that spatial urban (both dynamic and static) externalities affect rural population and employment growth. In the functional economic regions where the urban core is declining and the urban fringe is expanding, urban population growth involves an increase in rural export employment, and larger change in service employment favors rural population growth. However, urban export job growth reduces the growth in rural service jobs and expanding urban service jobs reduce rural export jobs, suggesting that expanding urban employment opportunities draws employees away from proximate rural communities. Conversely, where both urban core and fringe are growing, we observe an urban spread effect from the urban export sector to rural services—an export base multiplier effect with a spatial dimension—and from urban population growth to rural service employment.

Moving home again? Never! The locational choices of graduates in Sweden

Two major challenges in Europe’s rural areas are an aging population and the diminishing share of human capital. While this pattern has been occurring for a long time, the effects are becoming acutely visible and impactful. The long-term loss of younger individuals has in many ways “drained” the labor market and the economic market power of rural areas. This is the context of our research: the locational choice of university graduates from an urban–rural perspective. Using micro data covering the entire Swedish population, we identify all university graduates from the year 2001. We analyze them with respect to whether they live in a rural or urban region before starting university and where they live after graduation at two points in time: 5 and 10 years. We use a series of multinomial logit regressions to determine what factors affect their short-term and long-term choices of location. We find that having children is one of the most influential factors for moving back home after graduation, irrespective of type of region. We find only minor differences between the two time perspectives.     

陕西关中地区乡村旅游组织规划浅析

对关中地区乡村旅游资源优势进行了充分调研,对关中村落旅游空间发展的几种趋势进行了探讨,最后从优化空间布局、关中乡村景观与乡村旅游规划协调等几方面提出了几种关中乡村旅游空间组织规划的模式,从而促进农村经济持续发展。     

农村人居空间的“收缩”和“精明收缩”之道——实证分析、理论解释与价值选择

在实现中国梦和"两个一百年"奋斗目标的过程中,城镇人口不断增加、农村人口持续减少仍然是一个重要趋势。鉴于此,农村人居空间精明收缩是一个重要的价值判断和规划策略。本文在既有研究基础上,首先,通过构建农村人居空间变迁模型并引入统计数据,对农村人居空间收缩趋势进行实证研究;其次,通过引入空间惯性的概念,为解释农村收缩提供一个新的视角;第三,进一步论述精明收缩的价值选择,包括核心观点、基本原理和发展框架。农村精明收缩面对的现实问题普遍而复杂,但这也为城乡规划领域在实现中国梦的过程中,贡献自己的智慧和力量创造了新的可能。     

南方地区农村安全饮水工程水处理工艺研究

对南方地区水系的水质特征和变化规律进行了分析,对农村现有水处理设施和技术所面临的主要问题进行了探讨,并对各水处理单元技术进行了综合评价,最后根据南方地区农村供水要求和水源特点,提出了适宜的水处理优化组合构想。     

Network Model for Rural Roadway Tolling with Pavement Deterioration and Repair

The objective of roadway tolling in rural areas is often tied to revenue generation for roadway maintenance. Thus, rural pricing models should directly incorporate a pavement deterioration and maintenance model. However, the interactions between these models are not simple, because tolls cause traffic diversion, which in turn affects deterioration rates and forecasted revenue. This article describes a rural pricing model which calculates diversion endogenously with a network assignment model. This model captures deterioration rates and pavement condition in the toll‐setter's objective function, maximizing long‐run net present value of the highway infrastructure. A novel deterioration model is used which is particularly suitable for computational efficiency. The resulting model is discontinuous and nondifferentiable, and involves solving a combinatorial knapsack problem as a subproblem. Thus, a simulated annealing‐based algorithm is presented to solve it, in the framework of a new solution method built upon partitioning the feasible region. A demonstration is made using a network representing the state of Wyoming (28 zones, 60 nodes, and 188 links). Sensitivity analyses reveal that although the locations for optimal tolling are relatively stable as demand changes, the revenue collected can vary substantially. Relatively simple models are used throughout for computational reasons, and future research should investigate strategies for incorporating more advanced pavement and network models.     

苏南地区农村居住发展及其模式探讨

在产业集聚、交通体系演化和农村发展三大主导因素的影响下,苏南地区农村居住布局从高度分散走向适度集中有利于推动农业规模化、缓解人地关系矛盾、改善农村生活环境.根据未来农村人口迁移及其引起的分布变化,苏南地区可采取异地城市社区模式、就地城市社区模式、"就近并点"乡村社区模式、"迁弃归并"乡村社区模式四种模式来实现农居点的适度集中,但在具体的实践中应注重乡村文化与特色的保护等问题.     

沿海欠发达地区城市带发展影响因素及发展路径研究——以鲁南城市带为例

研究表明,经济社会空间集聚程度不高、距离成本较大、城乡分割严重是制约鲁南城市带发展的重要因素.基于此,鲁南城市带应优化空间结构,引导人口和经济在空间上的集聚,消除空间障碍,降低经济社会发展中的距离成本,统筹城乡发展,减少分割,以促进鲁南城市带健康、快速发展.     

论苏锡常地区城镇化“光环”背后的“囚徒困境”——新制度经济学视野中的城镇化发展研究

苏锡常地区的城镇化模式一直是全国城镇化发展的典范。但是随着城镇的进一步发展,其城镇化"光环"背后暴露了一系列的问题,使得城镇化发展进入了"囚徒困境"。据此,本文基于新制度经济学的相关理论,通过城镇化制度变迁,城镇企业变革、农村居民进城与出城的交易成本分析,以及城乡规划制度等方面的剖析,揭示了引发"囚徒困境"的根源:制度安排失范引发社会协调机制的失效。对此,进一步提出了突困之道:修补理论研究的缺失;构筑完善的相互协作的制度体系;在规划领域,应重塑城乡规划的核心地位,建立和谐为主体的规划,形成城镇体系规划、镇域规划、镇区总体规划、控制单元规划的由宏观到微观的编制体系,以此促进苏锡常地区城镇化"质"的提升。     

Has highway construction narrowed the urban–rural income gap? Evidence from Chinese cities

Using 2003–2016 panel data of 278 prefecture-level Chinese cities, we analysed the relationship between highway construction, resource flow, and urban–rural income gap using multiple spatial econometric models. Overall highway construction has narrowed the urban–rural income gap owing to better population mobility and goods flow. However, while goods flow has narrowed the gap, population mobility has aggravated it. A regional difference in the impact of highway construction also exists, that is, the effect is negative in central and western cities, but positive for eastern cities. Moreover, China's “4 trillion” fiscal and currency stimulus plan has strengthened highway construction in narrowing the income gap.     

景观干扰对乡村半自然生境植物多样性的 影响分析

乡村半自然生境植物多样性的影响分析,有助于推 动乡村生态景观高质量发展。村以下尺度乡村植物多样性研究 存在生境类型分析不全面、景观影响因子单一化、定量干扰机 制不深入等问题。在南京江宁西南部乡村地区,采用逐步回归 模型和广义加性模型,探讨了多种景观干扰对6类乡村半自然 生境植物多样性的影响,并提出了基于乡村植物多样性维持的 景观响应策略。结果表明：1)乡村景观格局、景观管理强度 和类型等对不同半自然生境植物多样性产生了显著影响,其综 合解释度约为10%~50%,小规模林斑、连接度高的半自然生 境、小面积池塘(<0.8hm2 )、茶田景观粗放管理方式、乡土 树种混交林等对植物多样性的正向促进作用显著;2)在所有显 著性指标中,斑块面积、斑块隔离度对各类半自然生境植物多 样性的影响最为突出,是驱动乡村植物多样性变化的重要景观 因素。     

试论苏南地区乡村城市化转型——以苏州为例

全球化带来了生产要素在更大空间尺度上的集聚。以苏州为例,深入分析苏南地区乡村城市化转型的背景:全球化背景下乡镇发展的分化、乡镇发展动力转向和土地资源的日益稀缺。在此背景下,按照城乡统筹发展、建设社会主义新农村的要求,从乡村人口转移的角度,提出了苏南地区乡村城市化地域推进三种模式:乡村人口向大中城市集聚、向小城市集聚和向乡村集中社区集聚。     

BLACK AND WHITE SUBURBAN POPULATION GROWTH SINCE WORLD WAR II: A Comparison of Intradecade Models

ABSTRACT: This article examines the relationship between the percent black population, black population change, and white population change for American suburbs for the 1950 to 1980 period Linear, tipping point (curvilinear), and interaction models of white population change are evaluated for each decade controlling for several other suburban characteristics (age, annexation, and distance to the central business district). The analyses provide little support for any model of racial change and show that white population change is more often affected by other suburban characteristics, especially age.     

Micropolitan areas: Exploring the linkages between demography and land-cover change in the United States cities

Micropolitan statistical areas in the United States are important transitionary regions that may provide insights into the economic, demographic, and social forces driving urbanization. Land cover change may provide significant insights into the dynamics of these important transitionary units. Our work investigates three questions: (1) How is the national landscape changing within micropolitan statistical areas with regards to land cover? (2) Are land-cover conditions in micropolitan areas closer to rural or metropolitan areas or are they unique? (3) How closely are demographic patterns linked to land conversion for development within micropolitan areas?When compared to metropolitan and rural areas within the US, our results demonstrate that micropolitan areas are unique with regards to the total amount of developed land, as well as land conversion to development. Within the micropolitan areas, we show that demographic categories such as population, population density, or population growth are not adequate predictors of land-cover change and that the geographic patterns of land conversion for development may provide valuable insights into the impact of micropolitan areas on the US national landscape.     

An Analysis of the Purposes of a Land Use Survey

This article reviews some of the problems and procedures involved in planning for the economic development of a region. The purpose of the article is to stimulate further exploration and clarification of planning theory. It does not deal with problems of establishing regional planning agencies, and the financing thereof, nor with legislative and administrative procedures for putting plans into effect. While the examples given are for a large subnational region, such as the four Pacific Southwest states, some of the suggestions should be applicable to the development of any area of considerable size or population, whether rural or urban.