Testing for jumps in the EGARCH process

This paper considers testing for jumps in the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models with Gaussian and Student-t innovations. The Wald and log likelihood ratio tests contain a nuisance parameter unidentified under the null hypothesis of no jumps, and hence are unavailable for this problem, because jump probability and variance of jumps in the test statistic cannot be estimated under the null hypothesis of no jumps. It is shown that the nuisance parameter is cancelled out in the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test statistic, and hence that the test is nuisance parameter-free. The one-sided test is also proposed using the nonnegative constraint on jump variance. The actual size and power of the tests are examined in a Monte Carlo experiment. The test is applied to daily returns of S&P 500 as an illustrative example.     

Obtaining similar null distributions in the normal linear model using computational methods

Hypothesis testing when the null hypothesis belongs to the univariate or multivariate normal linear model is discussed. More specifically it is shown how data can be replicated from the null distribution conditional on the sufficient statistics for the parameters of the null hypothesis at hand. This distribution will be called the similar null distribution of the data. It is shown how the similar null distribution of the data can be used to obtain level alpha tests for any test statistic that is of interest. The p-value that is obtained using the distribution of the test statistic conditional on the sufficient statistics is called the similar p-value.     

Testing fuzzy hypotheses based on fuzzy test statistic

A new approach for testing fuzzy parametric hypotheses based on fuzzy test statistic is introduced. First, we define some models representing the extended versions of the simple, the one-sided and the two-sided crisp hypotheses to the fuzzy ones. Then, we provide a confidence interval for interested parameter, and using α-cuts of the fuzzy null hypothesis, we construct the related fuzzy test statistic. Finally, by introducing a credit level, we can decide to accept or reject the fuzzy hypothesis. The method is applied to test the fuzzy hypotheses for the mean of a normal distribution, the variance of a normal distribution, and the mean of a Poisson distribution.     

Test for homogeneity in gamma mixture models using likelihood ratio

A testing problem of homogeneity in gamma mixture models is studied. It is found that there is a proportion of the penalized likelihood ratio test statistic that degenerates to zero. The limiting distribution of this statistic is found to be the chi-bar-square distributions. The degeneration is due to the negative-definiteness of a complicated random matrix, depending on the shape parameter under the null hypothesis. In light of this dependency, bounds on the distribution are introduced and a weighted average procedure is proposed. Simulation suggests that the results are accurate and consistent, and that the asymptotic result applies to the maximum likelihood estimator, obtained via an Expectation–Maximization algorithm.     

Alternative approaches to implementing Lagrange multiplier tests for serial correlation in dynamic regression models

An approximate F-form of the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for serial correlation in dynamic regression models is compared with three bootstrap tests. In one bootstrap procedure, residuals from restricted estimation under the null hypothesis are resampled. The other two bootstrap tests use residuals from unrestricted estimation under an alternative hypothesis. A fixed autocorrelation alternative is assumed in one of the two unrestricted bootstrap tests and the other is based upon a Pitman-type sequence of local alternatives. Monte Carlo experiments are used to estimate rejection probabilities under the null hypothesis and in the presence of serial correlation.     

Higher-order approximations for testing neglected nonlinearity

We illustrate the need to use higher-order (specifically sixth-order) expansions in order to properly determine the asymptotic distribution of a standard artificial neural network test for neglected nonlinearity. The test statistic is a quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) statistic designed to test whether the mean square prediction error improves by including an additional hidden unit with an activation function violating the no-zero condition in Cho, Ishida, and White (2011). This statistic is also shown to be asymptotically equivalent under the null to the Lagrange multiplier (LM) statistic of Luukkonen, Saikkonen, and Ter?svirta (1988) and Ter?svirta (1994). In addition, we compare the power properties of our QLR test to one satisfying the no-zero condition and find that the latter is not consistent for detecting a DGP with neglected nonlinearity violating an analogous no-zero condition, whereas our QLR test is consistent.     

Checking the adequacy for a distortion errors-in-variables parametric regression model

This paper studies tools for checking the validity of a parametric regression model, when both response and predictors are unobserved and distorted in a multiplicative fashion by an observed confounding variable. A residual based empirical process test statistic marked by proper functions of the regressors is proposed. We derive asymptotic distribution of the proposed empirical process test statistic: a centered Gaussian process under the null hypothesis and a non-centered one under local alternatives converging to the null hypothesis at parametric rates. We also suggest a bootstrap procedure to calculate critical values. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed test statistic and real examples are analyzed for illustrations.     

Generalized Additive Models and Inflated Type I Error Rates of Smoother Significance Tests

Generalized additive models (GAMs) have distinct advantages over generalized linear models as they allow investigators to make inferences about associations between outcomes and predictors without placing parametric restrictions on the associations. The variable of interest is often smoothed using a locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) and the optimal span (degree of smoothing) can be determined by minimizing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). A natural hypothesis when using GAMs is to test whether the smoothing term is necessary or if a simpler model would suffice. The statistic of interest is the difference in deviances between models including and excluding the smoothed term. As approximate chi-square tests of this hypothesis are known to be biased, permutation tests are a reasonable alternative. We compare the type I error rates of the chi-square test and of three permutation test methods using synthetic data generated under the null hypothesis. In each permutation method a distribution of differences in deviances is obtained from 999 permuted datasets and the null hypothesis is rejected if the observed statistic falls in the upper 5% of the distribution. One test is a conditional permutation test using the optimal span size for the observed data; this span size is held constant for all permutations. This test is shown to have an inflated type I error rate. Alternatively, the span size can be fixed a priori such that the span selection technique is not reliant on the observed data. This test is shown to be unbiased; however, the choice of span size is not clear. A third method is an unconditional permutation test where the optimal span size is selected for observed and permuted datasets. This test is unbiased though computationally intensive.     

Testing correct model specification using extreme learning machines

Testing the correct model specification hypothesis for artificial neural network (ANN) models of the conditional mean is not standard. The traditional Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and quasi-likelihood ratio statistics weakly converge to functions of Gaussian processes, rather than to convenient chi-squared distributions. Also, their large-sample null distributions are problem dependent, limiting applicability. We overcome this challenge by applying functional regression methods of Cho et al. [8] to extreme learning machines (ELM). The Wald ELM (WELM) test statistic proposed here is easy to compute and has a large-sample standard chi-squared distribution under the null hypothesis of correct specification. We provide associated theory for time-series data and affirm our theory with some Monte Carlo experiments.     

Extention of the Cox-Lewis method for testing multidimensional data

Determining the structure of multidimensional data is an important problem in exploratory data analysis. A number of statistical techniques for testing two dimensional data is available in the literature. In this paper, a distance-based method, proposed by Cox and Lewis in two dimensions, is extended to d(d > 2) dimensions and its properties are examined. The d-dimensional Cox-Lewis test statistic is defined and a new derivation of its distribution under a randomness hypothesis of a Poisson spatial point process is given. The power of the generalized test is examined under hardcore regularity and under Neyman-Scott clustering with Monte Carlo simulations. Experiments with both simulated and real data indicate that the Cox-Lewis statistic shows great promise for assessing the gross structure of data.     

Bootstrapping divergence statistics for testing homogeneity in multinomial populations

We consider the problem of testing the equality of ν$\nu$ (ν≥2$\nu \ge 2$) multinomial populations, taking as test statistic a sample version of an f-dissimilarity between the populations, obtained by the replacement of the unknown parameters in the expression of the f-dissimilarity among the theoretical populations, by their maximum likelihood estimators. The null distribution of this test statistic is usually approximated by its limit, the asymptotic null distribution. Here we study another way to approximate it, the bootstrap. We show that the bootstrap yields a consistent distribution estimator. We also study by simulation the finite sample performance of the bootstrap distribution and compare it with the asymptotic approximation. From the simulations it can be concluded that it is worth calculating the bootstrap estimator, because it is more accurate than the approximation yielded by the asymptotic null distribution which, in addition, cannot always be exactly computed.     

随机系数自回归模型变均值点在线监测与应用

对随机系数自回归模型的变均值点进行在线监测时, 如果变均值点的位置远离开始监测点, 则平均地说, 需要较长的运行时间方能检测到该变均值点. 为此, 笔者引进一个窗宽参数, 提出了一种改进的在线监测方法. 给出了监测统计量在原假设下的极限分布, 并证明了此方法的一致性. 模拟结果显示新方法明显优于已有的方法. 最后将该方法应用于两组股票价格均值点的监测问题中, 说明了方法的有效性.     

Testing and estimation of purely nonparametric effects in repeated measures designs

The several sample case of the so-called nonparametric Behrens-Fisher problem in repeated measures designs is considered. That is, even under the null hypothesis, the marginal distribution functions in the different groups may have different shapes, and are not assumed to be equal. Moreover, the continuity of the marginal distribution functions is not required so that data with ties and, particularly, ordered categorical data are covered by this model. A multiple relative treatment effect is defined which can be estimated by using the mid-ranks of the observations within pairwise samples. The asymptotic distribution of this estimator is derived, along with a consistent estimator of its asymptotic covariance matrix. In addition, a multiple contrast test and related simultaneous confidence intervals for the relative marginal effects are derived and compared to rank-based Wald-type and ANOVA-type statistics. Simulations show that the ANOVA-type statistic and the multiple contrast test appear to maintain the pre-assigned level of the test quite accurately (even for rather small sample sizes) while the Wald-type statistic leads, as expected, to somewhat liberal decisions. Regarding the power, none of the statistics is uniformly superior. A real data set illustrates the application.     

On wavelet-based testing for serial correlation of unknown form using Fan’s adaptive Neyman method

Test procedures for serial correlation of unknown form with wavelet methods are investigated. A new test statistic is motivated using a canonical multivariate normal hypothesis testing model. It relies on empirical wavelet coefficients of a wavelet-based spectral density estimator. The choice of the Haar wavelet function is advocated, since evidence demonstrates that the choice of the wavelet function is not critical. Under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation, the asymptotic distribution of a vector of empirical wavelet coefficients is derived, which is asymptotically a multivariate normal distribution. A test statistic is proposed based on that asymptotic result, which presents the serious advantage to be completely data-driven or adaptive, avoiding the selection of any smoothing parameters. Furthermore, under a suitable class of fixed alternatives, the wavelet-based method is consistent against serial correlation of unknown form. The test statistic is expected to exhibit good power properties when the true spectral density displays significant spatial inhomogeneity, such as seasonal or business cycle periodicities. However, the convergence of the test statistic towards its asymptotic distribution is relatively slow. Thus, Monte Carlo methods based on random samples are suggested to determine the corresponding critical values. In a simulation study, the new methodology is compared with several test statistics, with respect to their exact levels and powers. The robustness properties of the spectral methods based on Monte Carlo critical values are also investigated empirically, when the error terms are weak white noises.     

Size and power of tests for a zero random effect variance or polynomial regression in additive and linear mixed models

Several tests for a zero random effect variance in linear mixed models are compared. This testing problem is non-regular because the tested parameter is on the boundary of the parameter space. Size and power of the different tests are investigated in an extensive simulation study that covers a variety of important settings. These include testing for polynomial regression versus a general smooth alternative using penalized splines. Among the test procedures considered, three are based on the restricted likelihood ratio test statistic (RLRT), while six are different extensions of the linear model F-test to the linear mixed model. Four of the tests with unknown null distributions are based on a parametric bootstrap, the other tests rely on approximate or asymptotic distributions. The parametric bootstrap-based tests all have a similar performance. Tests based on approximate F-distributions are usually the least powerful among the tests under consideration. The chi-square mixture approximation for the RLRT is confirmed to be conservative, with corresponding loss in power. A recently developed approximation to the distribution of the RLRT is identified as a rapid, powerful and reliable alternative to computationally intensive parametric bootstrap procedures. This novel method extends the exact distribution available for models with one random effect to models with several random effects.     

Profile inference on partially linear varying-coefficient errors-in-variables models under restricted condition

In this paper, we investigate the estimation and testing problems of partially linear varying-coefficient errors-in-variables (EV) models under additional restricted condition. The restricted estimators of parametric and nonparametric components are established based on modified profile least-squares method, and their asymptotic properties are also studied under some regularity conditions. Moreover, the modified profile Lagrange multiplier test statistic is constructed under additional restricted condition. It is shown that the modified profile Lagrange multiplier test statistic is asymptotically distribution-free and follows a Chi-squared distribution under the null hypothesis. Some simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of the proposed methods. A real dataset is analyzed for illustration.     

A smoothed residual based goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic hierarchical regression models

We develop a goodness-of-fit measure with desirable properties for use in the hierarchical logistic regression setting. The statistic is an unweighted sum of squares (USS) of the kernel smoothed model residuals. We develop expressions for the moments of this statistic and create a standardized statistic with hypothesized asymptotic standard normal distribution under the null hypothesis that the model is correctly specified. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate satisfactory adherence to Type I error rates of the Kernel smoothed USS statistic in a variety of likely data settings. Finally, we discuss issues of bandwidth selection for using our proposed statistic in practice and illustrate its use in an example.     

A goodness of fit test based on some graphical representation when parameters are estimated

We consider a graphical representation of data and a goodness of fit test based on the representation when the family of hypothetical distributions includes unknown parameters. The graphical representation is given by a convex polygon which reflects the pattern of order statistics so that we can judge whether the null hypothesis is true or not by visual inspection. The area of our chart is adopted as the test statistic. Both the asymptotic and exact distributions of our test statistic cannot be derived and hence some computer simulations are performed in order to investigate the null distribution and the power properties.     

A test for multidimensional clustering tendency

This paper examines a d-dimensional extension of the Cox-Lewis statistic and investigates its power as a function of dimensionality in discriminating among random, aggregated and regular arrangements of points in d-dimensions. It was motivated by the Clustering Tendency problem which attempts to prevent the inappropriate application of clustering algorithms and other exploratory procedures. After reviewing the literature, the d-dimensional Cox-Lewis statistic is defined and its distribution under a randomness hypothesis of a Poisson spatial point process is given. Analytical expressions for the densities of the Cox-Lewis statistic under lattice regularity and under extreme clustering are also provided. The powers of Neyman-Pearson tests of hypotheses based on the Cox-Lewis statistic are derived and compared. Power is a unimodal function of dimensionality in the test of lattice regularity, with the minimum occurring at 12 dimensions.The power of the Cox-Lewis statistic is also examined under hard-core regularity and under Neyman-Scott clustering with Monte Carlo simulations. The Cox-Lewis statistic leads to one-sided tests for regularity having reasonable power and provides a sharper discrimination between random and clustered data than other statistics. The choice of sampling window is a critical factor. The Cox-Lewis statistic shows great promise for assessing the gross structure of data.     

非参数回归模型均值函数结构变点的检测与应用

本文将一类系统参数变点检测问题转化为非参数回归模型均值函数结构变点的检测问题.针对当非参数模型均值函数跃度的长期均值为零时,残量累积和(cumulative sum,CUSUM)统计量无效的问题,首先利用均值函数的核估计构造新统计量,给出了原假设和备择假设下统计量的极限分布;进一步构造Bootstrap检验,证明了Bootstrap检验的一致性;最后以模拟结果表明新方法明显优于已有的方法,并应用于两类实际数据分析,说明方法的有效性.