Social security and divorce in Japan

The purpose of this paper is to explain variations in the divorce rates across prefectures in Japan over the 20-year period between 1982 and 2002. This paper examines the various factors which may affect divorce rates including: the effects of the generosity of social welfare; the income of females relative to males; the female employment rate; the vacancy rate; a shift to no-fault divorce; and social stigma. There are three major findings of this paper. First, the generosity of a particular prefecture in approving the livelihood protection benefits (LPBs) has a statistically negative impact on the divorce rate. Moreover, social stigma has negative impacts both on the divorce rate and the generosity of social security benefits. Finally, political conservatism has a negative impact on the proportion of needy people who receive LPB. The findings of this paper imply that in order to become eligible for the social security benefits, married couples may be more likely to dissolve their marriage in those prefectures where the provision of the LPB is not so generous.     

Social network sites,marriage well-being and divorce: Survey and state-level evidence from the United States

This study explores the relationship between using social networks sites (SNS), marriage satisfaction and divorce rates using survey data of married individuals and state-level data from the United States. Results show that using SNS is negatively correlated with marriage quality and happiness, and positively correlated with experiencing a troubled relationship and thinking about divorce. These correlations hold after a variety of economic, demographic, and psychological variables related to marriage well-being are taken into account. Further, the findings of this individual-level analysis are consistent with a state-level analysis of the most popular SNS to date: across the U.S., the diffusion of Facebook between 2008 and 2010 is positively correlated with increasing divorce rates during the same time period after controlling for all time-invariant factors of each state (fixed effects), and continues to hold when time-varying economic and socio-demographic factors that might affect divorce rates are also controlled. Possible explanations for these associations are discussed, particularly in the context of pro- and anti-social perspectives towards SNS and Facebook in particular.     

An opportunistic and non-anticipating size-aware scheduling proposal for mean holding cost minimization in time-varying channels

In this paper we study how to design a scheduling strategy aimed at minimizing the average holding cost for flows with general size distribution when the feasible transmission rate of each user varies randomly over time. We employ a Whittle-index-based approach in order to achieve an opportunistic and non-anticipating size-aware scheduling index rule proposal. When the flow size distribution belongs to the Decreasing Hazard Rate class, we propose the so-called Attained Service Potential Improvement index rule, which consists in giving priority to the flows with the highest ratio between the current attained-service-dependent completion probability and the expected potential improvement of this completion probability. We further analyze the performance of the proposed scheduler, concluding that it outperforms well-known opportunistic disciplines.     

The probability relationship between video’s instantaneous and average aggregate rates

The growing demand for video applications and services has contributed substantially to the increase of video traffic on the Internet. Measurement-based admission control was proposed with the primary aim of eliminating or reducing the need of flow state information; also to control overhead for admission decision and maximize utilization at the potential cost of QoS degradation. Some of the admission algorithms depend on the instantaneous rate for its operation. On the other hand, the average aggregate rate has been proposed to better suit variable rate such as video traffic. In this paper, we investigate the probability relationship between the instantaneous and average aggregate rates for video traffic. A mathematical model has been developed to quantify the probability relationship between both rates and validated through extensive simulations using real video sequences. The average rate was found to be lower than instantaneous for a small number of flows, however there was no pronounced difference for a large number of flows. Furthermore, the difference between both rates increases for fast moving content such as sport or longer measurement time window.     

Measure the quality level for a supplier-demand system by a multicommodity stochastic-flow network

From the point of view of quality management, it is important to meet the customer's demand. The probability that the system can satisfy the customer's demand is an important performance index, and can be used to measure the quality level of the system. In this paper, we use a multicommodity stochastic-flow network to describe the relationship between the supplier and the customer. Each node as well as each arc has several possible capacities and may fail. The network allows multiple types of commodities to be transmitted from the source to the sink. Given the demand for each commodity at the sink, evaluation of the probability that the system meets the demands is performed. Such a probability, named the system reliability, is a performance index of quality level. At first, a simple algorithm is proposed to generate all lower boundary points for the demand, and the system reliability can be calculated in terms of such points. The computational complexity of the proposed algorithm is polynomial time in number of arcs, nodes and minimal paths.     

Uncertainty about probability: a reconciliation with thesubjectivist viewpoint

The use of probability distributions to represent uncertainty about probabilities (rather than events) has long been a subject of controversy among theorists. Many have concluded that it is inherently meaningless to be uncertain about a probability, because this appears to violate the subjectivists' assumption that individuals can develop unique and precise probability judgments. Others have found the concept of uncertainty about probability to be both intuitively appealing and potentially useful. This paper presents a resolution of this question, indicating that at least one type of uncertainty about probabilities (that arising from uncertainty about the underlying events on which those probabilities are conditioned) is consistent with the subjective theory of probability. Another type of uncertainty (namely, that arising from cognitive imprecision) appears not to be consistent with the axioms of subjective probability as they are currently formulated, Distinguishing between these two sources of uncertainty is an important step in resolving the persistent theoretical controversy over uncertainty about probability. We also show that uncertainty about probability will be potentially relevant to decision-making whenever the expected value of the relevant performance measure is nonlinear in the probability in question     

A new full-text indexing model with low space overhead for chinese text retrieval

Text retrieval systems require an index to allow efficient retrieval of documents at the cost of some storage overhead. This paper proposes a novel full-text indexing model for Chinese text retrieval based on the concept of adjacency matrix of directed graph. Using this indexing model, on one hand, retrieval systems need to keep only the indexing data, instead of the indexing data and the original text data as the traditional retrieval systems always do. On the other hand, occurrences of index term are identified by labels of the so-called s-strings where the index term appears, rather than by its positions as in traditional indexing models. Consequently, system space cost as a whole can be reduced drastically while retrieval efficiency is maintained satisfactory. Experiments over several real-world Chinese text collections are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of this model. In addition to Chinese, The proposed indexing model is also effective and efficient for text retrieval of other Oriental languages, such as Japanese and Korean. It is especially useful for digital library application areas where storage resource is very limited (e.g., e-books and CD-based text retrieval systems).     

S-MRST: a novel framework for indexing uncertain data

This paper studies the problem of probabilistic range query over uncertain data. Although existing solutions could support such query, it still has space for improvement. In this paper, we firstly propose a novel index called S-MRST for indexing uncertain data. For one thing, via using an irregular shape for bounding uncertain data, it has a stronger space pruning ability. For another, by taking the gradient of probability density function into consideration, S-MRST is also powerful in terms of probability pruning ability. More important, S-MRST is a general index which could support multiple types of probabilistic queries. Theoretical analysis and extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed index.     

基于概率衰减窗口模型的不确定数据流频繁模式挖掘

考虑到不确定数据流的不确定性,设计了一种新的概率频繁模式树PFP-tree和基于该树的概率频繁模式挖掘方法PFP-growth.PFP-growth使用事务性不确定数据流及概率衰减窗口模型,通过计算各概率数据项的期望支持度以发现概率频繁模式,其主要特点有:考虑到窗口内不同时间到达数据项的贡献度不同,采用概率衰减窗口模型计算期望支持度,以提高模式挖掘准确度;设置数据项索引表和事务索引表,以加快频繁模式树检索速度;通过剪枝删除不可能成为频繁模式的结点,以降低模式树的存储及检索开销;对每个结点都设立一个事务概率信息链表,以支持数据项在不同事务中具有不同概率的情形.实验结果表明,PFP-growth在保证挖掘模式准确度的前提下,在处理时间和内存空间等方面都具有较好的性能.     

Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index

We focus on forecasting the probability that euro-area inflation will fall into one of three intervals by employing an ordered multinomial model augmented with macroeconomic variables. We directly forecast the probability that the expected euro area HICP price index inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 and 24 months will be less than 1.5 percent, exceed 2 percent, or be between these two values. The model includes many predictors, and deal with dimensionality issues by an approach which mixes factor models with Bayesian shrinkage. Our results show that macroeconomic variables’ inclusion improves the model’s forecast quality, especially at the longer horizon considered. The Deflationary Pressure Index coincides with the probability that inflation is below 1.5 percent on average in the next 24 months, and it is useful as a policy monitoring tool.

     

一种报文大小可变的TFRC改进算法

基于Internet的实时多媒体数据传输是一种报文发送速率固定,报文大小变化的应用。该文分析了这类应用对TFRC的影响,通过对TFRC协议的扩展,提出了一种支持报文大小可变应用的改进TFRC拥塞控制算法。这种算法在接收方采用了对报文数量进行加权的方法来计算丢失事件率以支持报文大小变化的应用。同时在网络仿真器ns2中实现了这种改进算法。仿真实验表明：这种改进算法能够支持报文大小变化,报文发送速率固定的应用,并且具有TCP友好性,与TCP相比具有较平缓的流量抖动。     

Curling's paradox

There is an age old debate in curling about whether it is better to be down one point with last shot, or ahead by one point without. The objective of this paper is to apply sensitivity analysis as a methodology to differentiate what appears to be two seemingly equal scenarios. A probability tree is developed for each scenario and a comparison is made based on an expected value basis. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine whether preference changes with changes in the key parameters. Indeed, preference is impacted by changes in these parameters. In general there is no universally preferred scenario; under specific conditions a general preference can be established. Ultimately, preference for one scenario over the other is based on an individual's perception of the probability of scoring with last shot.     

间断移动自组织网络下的路由协议分析与增强

文章介绍并分析了基本的间断移动自组织网络的路由协议的原理和性能。通过引入概率的思想和称之为捎带删除的垃圾收集方式,提出了一种路由增强算法EEPI。仿真结果表明,该协议明显减小了系统消耗,提高了路由效率,具有较强的适应不同场景的特性。     

Smart Clothing Prototype for the Arctic Environment

Continuous miniaturisation of electronic components has made it possible to create smaller and smaller electrical devices which can be worn and carried all the time. Together with developing fibre and textile technologies, this has enabled the creation of truly usable smart clothes that resemble clothes more than wearable computing equipment. These intelligent clothes are worn like ordinary clothing and provide help in various situations according to the application area. This paper describes the design and implementation of a survival smart clothing prototype for the arctic environment. Concept development, electrical design, and non-electrical features are discussed. The suit provides communication, positioning, and navigation aids for the user. Depending on the measurements of the human and the environment, the suit decides whether an emergency message should be sent. The user can control the system with a user interface called a Yo-Yo. The functionality of the suit has been tested in an arctic environment.     

基于高斯模型的不确定数据流Skyline查询方法

由于数据的动态性及不确定性等特征,使得不确定数据流上Skyline查询研究面临挑战.不确定对象一般采用多元概率密度函数(PDF)表示,现有的不确定数据流Skyline查询方法均采用离散型随机变量建模.然而不确定数据流中的对象可能是连续变化的,离散模型对连续性随机变量难以适用.针对连续PDF建模的不确定数据流Skyline查询进行了研究,提出了基于高斯模型的不确定数据流Skyline查询方法(SGMU),该方法包含2个过程:1)动态高斯建模算法(DGM):对滑动窗口采样并建立高斯模型,将原始的数据流转化为不确定对象PDF的参数流;2)提出了基于高斯树的查询算法(GTS)以建立空间索引结构和执行Skyline查询.实验结果表明,SGMU算法不仅能够对连续型不确定对象进行有效建模以辅助Skyline查询,而且能够有效地减少查询对象个数,提高Skyline查询效率.     

YAARC: yet another approach to further reducing the rate of conflict misses

Traditional set associative caches are seriously prone to conflict misses. We propose an adapted new skewed associative architecture as an attempt to alleviate this problem. It has already been shown that skewed associative caches can reduce the rate of conflict misses by using different hash functions to index different banks. Building on this observation, we propose yet another approach to further reduce the rate of conflict misses, nicknamed YAARC (Yet Another Approach to Reducing Conflicts) that uses different hash functions to index into a single bank. Mathematical modeling and simulation results are exploited to evaluate the impact of YAARC on the rate of conflict misses. Mathematical analysis show the superiority of YAARC caches over set and skewed associative caches from the conflict miss point of view. Simulations, using some benchmarks from SPEC CPU2000 benchmark suit that former researchers have reported them as the best candidates for cache performance evaluation, also show nearly 43% conflict miss rate improvement for the skewed associative cache over the set associative cache, and nearly 31% improvement for the YAARC cache over the skewed associative cache. This implies that YAARC caches considerably outperform set and skewed associative caches from the conflict miss point of view. Since production of YAARC caches require a dispensable amount of hardware overhead, they can be considered as a cost effective approach to minimize the rate of conflict misses.

The TUBE algorithm: Discovering trends in time series for the early detection of fuel leaks from underground storage tanks

Leaks and spills of hazardous fluids like petroleum endanger the environment, while remediation costs and penalties imposed when petroleum contaminates the ecosystem affect economics heavily. Therefore, it is crucial to detect any possible symptoms of a leak as soon as possible. Most of existing leak detection techniques require specialized equipment to be used, while purely software-based methods rely solely on data analysis and are very desirable since they can be deployed on petrol stations without any changes to the existing infrastructure. Moreover, such techniques can be considered as complementary to the hardware leak detection systems, as they provide additional security level. In this paper we present the TUBE algorithm, which detects fuel leaks from underground storage tanks, using only standard measurements that are normally registered on petrol stations, i.e. the amount of stored, sold, and delivered fuel. The TUBE algorithm is an autonomous solution capable of making decisions independently as well as supporting human-made decisions and thus can be considered as an expert leak detection system. The TUBE algorithm introduces a new data mining technique for trend detection and cleaning data over time series, which can be easily adapted to any other problem domain. A trend detection technique, called tubes, created for the TUBE algorithm is a novel data analysis method that allows to envelop uncertainties and oscillations in data and produce stable trends. Trend interpretation technique described in this paper has been designed especially for fuel leak detection purposes using our industrial experience. This paper includes a step-by-step usage example of the TUBE algorithm and its evaluation according to the United States Environmental Protection Agency requirements for leakage detection systems (the EPA SIR standard). Such an evaluation involves calculating the probability of detection and the probability of false alarm. The TUBE algorithm has obtained 98.84% probability of detection and 0.07% probability of false alarm while rejecting 42.22% of analyzed datasets due to their uncertainty. Rejecting datasets from analysis is compliant with the EPA SIR standard; however, rejection rate higher than 20% is not acceptable. Therefore we have evaluated the two-phase filtering stage of the algorithm in order to find the best combination of filters as means of data cleaning. Moreover, we have discussed the results pointing at the overall data quality problem, since it is the main cause of rejecting some datasets from the analysis. Finally, the TUBE algorithm has obtained 93.11% probability of detection and 0.73% probability of false alarm for the best combination of all parameters with 15.56% rejection rate, which is acceptable by the EPA SIR standard. The value of probability of detection is not fully compliant with the EPA SIR standard where 95% probability of detection with probability of false alarm lower than 5% is required. We have found that the requirements for the aforementioned probabilities have been completely fulfilled for datasets representing manifolded tank systems but not for single tank datasets. Such a situation was unexpected since manifolded tank systems are generally claimed to be more complex for analysis as they are in fact systems of multiple single tanks directly connected. In this paper we have also measured the time and memory complexity of the TUBE algorithm as well as discussed the issues connected to the TUBE algorithm deployment on petrol stations using our industrial experience in the topic.     

The definition of assembly line balancing difficulty and evaluation of balance solution quality

Assembly line balancing is a classic ill-structured problem where total enumeration is infeasible and optimal solutions uncertain for industrial problems. A quantitative approach to classifying problem difficulty and solution quality is therefore important. Two existing measures of difficulty, order strength and west ratio are compared to a new compound expression of difficulty, project index. Project index is based on individual assessment of precedence (precedence index) and task time (task time index). The current working definition of project index is given. Early criteria for judging assembly lines use balance delay and smoothness index, both are flawed as criteria. Line and balance efficiency are developed as more appropriate. Project index, line and balance efficiency will be illustrated for a published test-case examined by the “ALine” balancing package. The potential for a “learning” approach, selecting models to suit problems using the measures of difficulty, will form part of the conclusions within this paper.     

Optimization of a continuous distillation process under random inflow rate

The paper deals with a continuous distillation process under stochastic rate of inflows collected in a feed tank. The aim of analysis is to find a robust control of extracting feed from the tank over a certain time horizon such that—without knowledge of future realizations of the inflow rate—some level constraints in the feed tank will be met with high probability. This approach relies on formulating and numerically treating probabilistic constraints. The inflow rate is considered as a stochastic process for which two basically different model assumptions are made: the first model assumes a Gaussian process, and thus reflects the superposition of many independent elementary inflows; the second model treats maybe the simplest case of a single elementary inflow profile, namely rectangular inflows with fixed rate and duration but stochastic starting time. Numerical results illustrating both assumptions are presented, and advantages over the simple anticipation of nominal inflow profiles are highlighted.     

基于有序二叉树的多模式匹配算法

一、简介在一个文本串中查找用户指定的模式串在信息抽取和文本编辑中有着广泛的应用。当前,有限状态自动机(DFSA)算法是解决多模式匹配问题的常用方法。DFSA算法在匹配前对模式串集合进行预处理,转换成树型有限状态自动机,然后只需对文本串进行一次扫描就可找出所有模式串,其查找时间复杂度是O(n)。后来,在这个算法的基础上又有一些改进,实现了跳跃式查找。基于树型结构的有限自动机特别适