城市应对气候变化不确定性的动态适应性规划国际经验及启示

目前,我国虽开展了气候适应性规划工作,但在应对气候变化不确定性方面仍考虑不足。本文深入分析与总结了发达国家地区和城市在应对气候变化不确定性时所采取的动态适应性规划措施,主要包含气候情景预测分析、政策措施分级响应、灾害风险监控预警、社区利益主体参与四个方面。同时,本文依托相对成熟的国内外气候适应性规划体系,构建了城市应对气候变化不确定性的动态适应性规划框架,并提出了对我国气候变化适应性规划工作的启示。     

《欧洲城市对气候变化的适应》报告解读

城市的发展加剧了气候变化,反之,城市也受到了气候变化的影响城市应对气候变化需要从减缓和适应两方面展开对2012年2月欧洲环境署(EEA)发布的《欧洲城市对气候变化的适应——城市的挑战和机遇以及支持性的国家和欧洲政策》的基本框架、挑战与应对策略、应对气候变化的适应性规划和多层面管制进行解析,分析其若干特征,在此基础上初步提出我国城市应对气候变化的监测评估、规划、实施体系,探讨了应对气候变化的城乡规划体系     

应对气候变化的城市规划与设计——前沿及对中国的启示

随着全球变暖和极端气候事件频繁发生,全球气候变化及其不利影响日益成为人类共同关心的问题。文章首先介绍了国外已有的相关研究,并以国外前沿研究为启示,分析了中国气候变化现状、影响及应对措施,认为中国面临的气候形势极为严峻,从而提出了减缓和适应气候变化的城市空间、规模、交通规划理念,又对各类灾害多发区制定了相应的设计法则,并提出了"气候·多规融合"的想法。     

基于气候变化的城市规划研究进展与展望

基于科学网络引文数据库(WOS),本文采用CiteSpace知识图谱软件,梳理了1990—2016年国外气候变化与城市规划的研究热点和发展趋势。研究发现:在经历了20世纪七八十年代的迅速发展,1990年代初、中期的研究停滞以及1990年代末期以来的复兴后,研究视角和方法更加多元化,呈现学科交叉化与内容广泛化的趋势;研究内容主要趋向于气候复合效应与城市系统的互动机制、基于气候变化的城市系统分析评估以及城市规划应对气候变化策略三个方面。最后,论文评论指出,基于气候变化的城市规划研究正沿着内容体系多元化与综合化、方法体系从静态到动态模拟分析、重心倾向于规划行动的政策体系研究的路径发展。今后这一领域将深化气候多效应综合作用的适应性规划的研究,建构动态协作式规划方法。这一研究对我国未来城市空间发展应对气候变化的研究进展和关键技术的提升具有重要参考价值。     

新西兰自然保护地气候变化适应路径及其 启示

自然保护地既是受气候变化影响较为显著的客体,也是气候变化适应性应对的重要载体。在建设以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系并积极应对气候变化的国家战略背景下,中国亟须探索自然保护地适应气候变化的路径。以新西兰自然保护地为研究对象,经梳理分析,初步总结得出对我国自然保护地适应性应对的5点启示：建立气候变化适应性管理体系,提升治理能力;构建动态规划体系和方法,提高响应能力;全面强化生物多样性保护,增强抵御能力;重视游憩变化与设施安全,降低利用风险;加强科研监测力度与广度,夯实应对基础。     

德国适应气候变化与保护气候的城市规划发展实践

全球气候变化正在成为当前世界最紧迫的环境问题,城市规划对减弱气候变化影响和保护气候具有决定意义。德国为应对气候变化,从构建气候变化区域模型入手,探讨了一系列气候适应性发展策略,开展了气候适应性区域规划和城市规划实践,如减少交通出行,鼓励公共交通、步行和自行车交通,倡导节约用地的居住区结构及有利于气候保护的功能布局和建设用地选址,为我国气候适应性规划提供了借鉴。     

美国国家公园应对气候变化的经验及其对中国国家公园建设的启示

2017年随着《建设国家公园体制总体方案》的出台,中国的国家公园建设逐渐步入正轨。然而我国人口众多,幅员辽阔,气候条件复杂且生态环境脆弱,正在建立的国家公园极易受到气候变化所带来的不利影响,且我国关于国家公园应对气候变化的研究较少。美国的国家公园体制较为完善,在应对气候变化方面已有较为深入的探索。通过文献调研和比较分析法,以佛罗里达州大沼泽地国家公园和亚利桑那州大峡谷国家公园为例,分析其应对气候变化的方法与经验,并从气候监测、国家公园管理、适应性规划以及环境教育等方面对我国国家公园应对气候变化提出建议,使正在建设中的中国特色国家公园体制稳步推进。     

气候变化影响下国外沿海城市应对海平面上升的景观策略与启示

如何应对全球气候变化引发的海平面上升是沿海城市未来发展需要解决的重要问题之一。基于文献研究和对比分析，梳理海平面上升的影响及国外沿海城市制定的适应性发展框架。结果发现：不同城市景观应对策略方面的探索和研究主要涉及土地利用、防御基础设施建设、自然动态过程及景观技术应用四大方面，不同适应性策略的优劣势和适宜情景具有差异性。研究结果对中国沿海城市未来在制定景观适应性策略、探索景观工程的新技术和新方法以及加强景观风险评估和监测等方面具有借鉴意义。     

低碳城镇发展的综合路径规划

低碳发展是我国城镇应对气候变化影响、保障能源安全、谋求自身可持续发展的重要主题。本文以大连市獐子岛镇规划项目为例,讨论适合于我国城镇现实发展条件的低碳建设路径及其规划方法,以期对促进城镇低碳建设的尽快开展有所帮助。     

适应气候变化的公共空间规划——来自伦敦卡姆登区的经验

目前的科学数据显示全球气候变化正在加速发展,而人类活动是导致目前状况的最主要原因。作者认为,虽然减少温室气体排放毫无疑问是解决气候问题的一个手段,但是适应气候变化是城市保持适宜人类居住和工作的必不可少的组成部分。本文简要分析了当前编制气候适应性规划的背景和必要性,并且以作者参与伦敦卡姆登区的研究项目为例,从调节气温、减少洪涝灾害的威胁和水资源利用三个方面介绍了当地在适应气候变化的公共空间规划中的相关研究,对我国今后的相关研究提供了重要的借鉴。作者认为,适应气候变化的规划应当从当地的实际出发,因地制宜地解决气候问题。另外,我国的相关规划研究应当与世界接轨,只有全球的共同努力才能有效应对全球气候变化问题。     

Adaptation Planning and Hazard Mitigation for Interdependent Infrastructure Systems to Enhance Urban Resilience Under Climate Change

Climate change and natural hazards have created multiple impacts on human settlements. Urban planning and design are effective tools in dealing with climate adaptation and mitigation issues. However, climate risk and its impacts are multiscale and complex due to interdependence between urban infrastructure systems. Identifying adaptation strategies to cope with these impacts requires planners to understand potential interdependent and interrelated consequences of infrastructure failure under natural hazards, and evaluate cascading and cumulative effects of climate change. This article discussed opportunities and challenges to incorporate interdependent social and physical infrastructure systems in the adaptation planning and hazard mitigation process, including climate hazard assessment, adaptation goal identification, adaptation strategy development, and implementation. The availability of urban big data and high computational resources will enable urban planners and decision-makers to better deal with those complex impacts from climate change and natural hazards. Successful adaptation planning and hazard mitigation for interdependent infrastructure systems also needs to solve issues in uncertainties of climate projection, institutional barriers of adaptation, and challenges of urban big data. Potential solutions to these challenges would include cooperation among multi-disciplinary experts, coordination between different levels of governments, and developing the ethical framework for data protection and robust methodologies to detect and reduce data bias.     

Hot,congested, crowded and diverse: Emerging research agendas in planning

This special issue explores emerging research agendas in planning. It brings together scholars from diverse schools working on new areas of research and application in urban design and planning. Emergent research agendas include both novel areas of research and important shifts in the direction of a research area. The challenge for planning schools is to reflect critically on these changes and develop long-term research agendas that can better position our field in society and academia, and provide a basis from which to assess our academic programmes. The chapters presented in this issue reinforce key aspects of planning: multi-scale, and multi-faceted, yet integrative in its intent, stressing the physical, yet inescapably social. At the same time, they identify research areas that respond to major social and environmental changes. Blanco and Alberti focus on the latest findings in climate change science and on planning for adaptation; they highlight the opportunities that planners have to provide leadership in this area. Forsyth, Krizek and Rodríguez take up the issue of non-motorised travel, a topic of increasing interest for urban designers, public health experts and transportation and energy planners. For Talen and Ellis, an emerging challenge is the need to plan for diverse and compact communities. What social factors, policies, programmes and planning processes facilitate compact and diverse communities?     

From the Cold War to the warmed globe: planning,design-policy entrepreneurism,and the crises of nuclear weapons and climate change

Faced with two existential threats – nuclear war and climate change – planners have responded by proposing sweeping reforms for city-regions, often deploying the newfound rationales to re-package earlier ideas about ‘the good city’. This paper analyses how mid-twentieth-century planning discourses regarding Cold War urban dispersal in the USA might help us understand contemporary conversations about urban climate change adaptation. We apply Kingdon's Multiple Streams Analysis and his concept of policy entrepreneurs to show how planners frame problems and shape policy agendas. We propose a subtype of ‘design-policy entrepreneurs’ who use the spatial and visual tools of planning and design to advocate for preferred policies. By analysing the rhetoric and visual representations made by planners and designers from 1945 to 1965, we examine how they repurposed long-standing ideas about urban deconcentration into ‘dispersal for defence’ proposals. Such proposals for dispersing urban settlements into separated and ‘self-contained’ units received a dysfunctional partial acceptance: housing and transportation legislation embraced the dispersal part but resisted the complementary elements aimed at limiting damages from nuclear attack by concentrating development into distinct nodes. We conclude by asking how the perils of such partial policy-making success might play out on the terrain of climate change adaptation.     

Explaining Progress in Climate Adaptation Planning Across 156 U.S. Municipalities

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Cities are increasingly experiencing the effects of climate change and taking steps to adapt to current and future natural hazard risks. Research on these efforts has identified numerous barriers to climate adaptation planning, but has not yet systematically evaluated the relative importance of different constraints for a large number of diverse cities. We draw on responses from 156 U.S. cities that participated in a 2011 global survey on local adaptation planning, 60% of which are planning for climate change. We use logistic regression analysis to assess the significance of 13 indicators measuring political leadership, fiscal and administrative resources, ability to obtain and communicate climate information, and state policies in predicting the status of adaptation planning. In keeping with the literature, we find that greater local elected officials’ commitment, higher municipal expenditures per capita, and an awareness that the climate is already changing are associated with cities engaging in adaptation planning. The presence of state policies on climate adaptation is surprisingly not a statistically significant predictor, suggesting that current policies are not yet strong enough to increase local adaptation planning. However, the model's sampling bias toward larger and more environmentally progressive cities may mask the predictive power of state policies and other indicators.

Takeaway for practice: State governments have an opportunity to increase local political commitment by integrating requirements for climate-risk evaluations into existing funding streams and investment plans. Regional planning entities also can help overcome the lack of local fiscal capacity and political support by facilitating the exchange of information, pooling and channeling resources, and providing technical assistance to local planners.     

Adaptation to Climate Change

Problem: Even if significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions are achieved, some amount of climate change appears to be inevitable. Local, regional, state, and federal planning and regulation should begin to address how to adapt to these changes.

Purpose: This article presents a policy synthesis of adaptation planning issues, using California as a case study. We examine the institutional and regulatory challenges and tradeoffs that climate change poses in six particularly vulnerable areas: water resources, electricity, coastal resources, air quality, public health, and ecosystem resources. We discuss obstacles to adaptation planning and successes overcoming these barriers, and suggest how planning can incorporate adaptation.

Methods: This article presents a policy synthesis of adaptation planning issues, drawing on our recent research on California's experience and related literature. We summarize the results of six studies that draw on quantitative and qualitative information gathered through surveys, interviews, and literature review.

Results and conclusions: Planners should use forward-looking climate data that include higher water and air temperatures, sea-level rise, and increased numbers of extreme events like heat waves, floods, and wildfires when making decisions about future development, infrastructure investments, open-space protection, and disaster preparedness. Climate change will exacerbate conflicts between goals for economic development, habitat protection, and public safety, requiring stronger interagency coordination and new laws and regulations.

Takeaway for practice: Local and regional planners can help society adapt to a changing climate by using the best available science, deciding on goals and early actions, locating relevant partners, identifying and eliminating regulatory barriers, and encouraging the introduction of new state mandates and guidelines.

Research support: Partial support for this research was provided by Pacific Gas and Electric, The Nature Conservancy, and Next 10.     

Participation,scenarios and pathways in long-term planning for climate change adaptation

This article describes a climate change adaptation planning process triggered by a group of researchers and stakeholders in a context where no collective responses or long-term plans for protecting a vulnerable coastal system had been initiated, despite local perceptions of vulnerability and risk. The case study shows the application of two methods: scenario workshops and adaptation pathways in the context of a participatory action research methodological design. Participatory action research and qualitative scenario methods are highlighted as accelerators of climate change adaptation processes by calling to action, facilitating and connecting diverse social groups with a stake in a long-term plan towards a more adapted society. The experience leads to the conclusion that planning climate change adaptation has to go far beyond the technical dimension and take into account those affected (in the present and the future) by decisions made. A holistic approach to climate change adaptation planning will depend on the interrelations of managerial and top-down approaches with localized initiatives driven through an inclusive and collective action research process.     

Evidence needed to manage freshwater ecosystems in a changing climate: Turning adaptation principles into practice

It is widely accepted that climate change poses severe threats to freshwater ecosystems. Here we examine the scientific basis for adaptively managing vulnerable habitats and species. Our views are shaped by a literature survey of adaptation in practice, and by expert opinion. We assert that adaptation planning is constrained by uncertainty about evolving climatic and non-climatic pressures, by difficulties in predicting species- and ecosystem-level responses to these forces, and by the plasticity of management goals. This implies that adaptation measures will have greatest acceptance when they deliver multiple benefits, including, but not limited to, the amelioration of climate impacts. We suggest that many principles for biodiversity management under climate change are intuitively correct but hard to apply in practice. This view is tested using two commonly assumed doctrines: “increase shading of vulnerable reaches through tree planting” (to reduce water temperatures); and “set hands off flows” (to halt potentially harmful abstractions during low flow episodes). We show that the value of riparian trees for shading, water cooling and other functions is partially understood, but extension of this knowledge to water temperature management is so far lacking. Likewise, there is a long history of environmental flow assessment for allocating water to competing uses, but more research is needed into the effectiveness of ecological objectives based on target flows. We therefore advocate more multi-disciplinary field and model experimentation to test the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of adaptation measures applied at different scales. In particular, there is a need for a major collaborative programme to: examine natural adaptation to climatic variation in freshwater species; identify where existing environmental practice may be insufficient; review the fitness of monitoring networks to detect change; translate existing knowledge into guidance; and implement best practice within existing regulatory frameworks.     

Keywords in planning: what do we mean by ‘community resilience’?

In this paper, we critically explore the combination of a dynamic, multilayered understanding of community with an open-ended, ‘emergent’ understanding of resilience, and highlight the relevance for planners. We argue prevailing planning policies and practices on community resilience tend to work with rather simplistic, one-dimensional understandings of both ‘community’ and ‘resilience’. The multiple layers of meaning that are embedded in the word community are ignored when it is treated as an add-on intended to give underlying ideas about resilience planning greater public appeal. Apart and together the concepts of community and resilience bring into play a host of tensions between, for example, continuity and change, resistance and adaptation, inclusion and exclusion. This paper offers a framework for ensuring that these important considerations are openly negotiated within transparent normative frameworks of planning policy and practice.     

Culture Change as Identity Regulation: The Micro-Politics of Producing Spatial Planners in England

Attempts to reform planning systems often draw into question the attitudes and commitments of the planners charged with realising change. Since 2001 the English planning system has been subject to a complex series of reforms designed to modernise its workings. Central to this have been calls for a culture change, focusing on professional planners in the public sector. The discourse of culture change is rooted in the managerialist thinking that has been central to long-term processes of state restructuring. Du Gay describes this as a project designed to change the identities of public servants. This article therefore explores the messy ways in which reform has sought to re-regulate the identities of English planners, and the response from planners themselves as they have begun to negotiate these changes to their identities and practices. It is argued that attentiveness to the lived experience of change can help to inform a more critical and nuanced account of the normative promises of planning reform.     

Barriers and Drivers of Planning for Climate Change Adaptation across Three Levels of Government in Canada

This study investigates the factors that constrain and enable adaptation planning for increasing flood risk in Canada. It uses a multiple-methods, multi-scalar approach to identify interconnected barriers and drivers that operate across municipal, provincial, and federal levels of government in Vancouver and Surrey, British Columbia. Through a policy content analysis (n = 54) and in-depth interviews with planners and other practitioners (n = 31), the study finds five major barriers to the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation: inadequate collaboration, absence of senior level political leadership, lack of public awareness, insufficient financial and staff capacity, and misalignment of policies within and between levels of government.