Seasonal variations in concentrations of pharmaceuticals and personal care products in drinking water and reclaimed wastewater in southern California

Southern California imports nearly all of its potable water from two sources: the Colorado River and the California State Water Project (Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin). Sewage treatment plant effluent (STPE) heavily impacts both of these sources. A survey of raw and treated drinking water from four water filtration plants in San Diego County showed the occurrence of several polar organic "pharmaceuticals and personal care products" (PPCP). These included phthalate esters, sunscreens, clofibrate, clofribric acid, ibuprofen, triclosan, and DEET. Several of these were also found in the finished water, such as di(ethylhexyl) phthalate, benzophenone, ibuprofen, and triclosan. Occurrence and concentrations of these compounds were highly seasonally dependent, and reached maximums when the flow of the San Joaquin River was low and the quantity of imported water was high. The maximum concentrations of the PPCPs measured in the raw water were correlated with low flow conditions in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta that feeds the State Water Project. The PPCP concentrations in raw imported water in the summer months approached that of reclaimed nonpotable wastewater.     

Watershed sources of disinfection byproduct precursors in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers, California

High levels of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and bromide (Br) in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River waterways are of concern because DOC and Br are organic and inorganic precursors, respectively, of carcinogenic and mutagenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs). The Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers are the two major rivers supplying water to the San Francisco Bay Delta, but sources and loads of DBP precursors into the Delta are still uncertain. The major objectives of this study were to evaluate both the quantity (DOC and Br fluxes) and the quality (reactivity in forming DBPs) of DBP precursors from the Sacramento and San Joaquin watersheds. Water samples were collected every 2 weeks at up to 35 locations along the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers and selected tributaries and analyzed for DOC (4 years), Br (1 year), and ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nm (1 year). Selected water samples were also tested for THM formation potential. Estimated fluxes for the Sacramento River were 39 000 +/- 12 000 Mg DOC year(-1) and 59 Mg of Br year(-1) as compared to 9000 +/- 5000 Mg of DOC year(-1) and 1302 Mg of Br year(-1) for the San Joaquin River. The THM formation potential was higher in the San Joaquin River (441 +/- 49 microg L(-1)) than the Sacramento River (176 +/- 20 microg L(-1)) because of higher concentrations of both organic (DOC = 3.62 +/- 0.14 vs 1.92 +/- 0.09 mg L(-1)) and inorganic DBP (Br = 0.80 +/- 0.07 vs < 0.03 +/- 0.01 mg L(-1)) precursors. The Sacramento River's greater DOC load despite lower DOC concentrations is due to its discharge being about 5 times greater than the San Joaquin River (50 x 10(9) vs 10 x 10(9) L day(-1)). The DOC concentration was significantly correlated with several land-cover types, including agriculture; however, no relationship was found between DOC quality and land-cover at the watershed scale.     

Determination of norovirus contamination in oysters from two commercial harvesting areas over an extended period, using semiquantitative real-time reverse transcription PCR

The human health risk associated with the consumption of molluscan shellfish grown in sewage-contaminated waters is well established. Noroviruses, which cause gastroenteritis, are the principal agents of shellfish-related illness. Fecal-indicator quality standards based on Escherichia coli are well established in Europe and elsewhere. However, norovirus outbreaks after consumption of shellfish meeting these standards still occur, and the need to improve consumer health protection is well recognized. Alternative approaches proposed include direct monitoring of viral pathogens and the use of alternative indicator organisms capable of providing a better indication of virus risk. This study applies a recently developed TaqMan PCR assay to assess norovirus contamination in shellfish. Comparison was made with E. coli as the existing sanitary standard and a male-specific RNA bacteriophage as a possible alternative. Two commercial pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) harvesting areas were monitored over a 31-month period. The results show peaks of norovirus contamination in both areas during winter months, with average levels approximately 17 times higher in oysters sampled October to March than during the remainder of the year, consistent with epidemiological data for the United Kingdom showing oyster-associated illness is confined to winter months. While there was no apparent association with E. coli, an association between levels of norovirus contamination and the male-specific RNA bacteriophage was noted, with average norovirus levels over 40 times higher in samples with male-specific RNA bacteriophage counts of >1,000 PFU/100 g than in samples with <100 PFU/100 g. Overall, these results suggest that norovirus monitoring in shellfish production areas could be an effective strategy for reduction of virus risk.     

Sensitivity of particulate matter nitrate formation to precursor emissions in the California San Joaquin Valley

The formation of secondary ammonium nitrate during the 1995 Integrated Monitoring Study (IMS95) in San Joaquin Valley, CA was investigated using a box model that simulates the atmospheric chemistry and gas/particle partition of inorganic compounds. The concentration of particulate matter (PM) nitrate was found to be sensitive to reductions in VOC emissions. Nitric acid, rather than ammonia, was the limiting reagent in the formation of PM nitrate. The formation of nitric acid was more sensitive to the availability of oxidants than that of NOx. Oxidant chemistry in wintertime conditions in the San Joaquin Valley was shown to be VOC-sensitive. In fact, a decrease in NOx emissions may have the counter-intuitive effect of increasing PM nitrate.     

Health risks derived from consumption of lettuces irrigated with tertiary effluent containing norovirus

Wastewater is a valuable resource for water-scarce regions, and is becoming increasingly important due to the rising frequency of droughts as a result of climate change. The health risks derived from ingestion of lettuce that has been irrigated with effluent from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in Catalonia (Spain) were estimated following a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) approach using site-specific data. Norovirus (NoV) was selected for this analysis, since it is the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis outbreaks in Catalonia. Two scenarios, irrigation with secondary and with tertiary effluent, were analysed. An uncertainty analysis was conducted to determine the impact of possible internalization of NoV into edible parts of the lettuce. The mean disease burden for ingestion of lettuce irrigated with secondary and tertiary effluent was 7.8 × 10^− 4 Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per person per year (pppy) and 3.9 × 10^− 4 DALYs pppy, respectively. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the model parameters with higher influence on the probability of disease are the concentration of NoV in the effluent and the consumption of lettuce. In order to decrease the disease burden to the guidance level of 10^− 6 DALYs pppy, the tertiary treatment should be able to achieve a 4.3 log reduction of the concentration of NoV. If internalization of NoV into lettuces occurs, this would require a reduction of 7.6 log. This is the first time that site specific data and virus internalization in crops are incorporated in a QMRA of irrigation of lettuce and its impact is quantified.     

Fate, partitioning, and mass loading of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) during the treatment processing of municipal sewage

Sewage treatment plant (STP) effluents are likely a major source of contamination for PBDEs, especially in the receiving water bodies of local aquatic environments surrounding the location of these discharges. Congeners of the pentaBDE mixture, 2,2,',4,4'-tetrabromodiphenyl ether (BDE47), 2,2,',4,4',5-pentabromodiphenyl ether (BDE99), 2,2,',4,4',6-pentabromodiphenyl ether (BDE100), 2,2,',4,4',5,5'-hexabromodiphenyl ether (BDE153), and 2,2,',4,4',5,6'-hexabromodiphenyl ether (BDE154), are of great environmental concern in North America due to their persistence, potential for bioaccumulation, and >97% use of the global production of the mixture in the region. Detailed characterization of the distribution of eight PBDE congeners (2,4,4'-tribromoDE (BDE28) and BDE47, 99, 100, 138, 153, 154, and 183) was carried out at five sites along the treatment process at an activated sludge-type secondary treatment municipal STP facility. PentaBDE mixture congeners, sigma5PBDE (sum of BDE47, 99, 100, 153, and 154) accounted for >98% of the total (sigma 8) PBDE concentration at all sites, with over 80% of the composition being BDE47 and BDE99. Presence of dissolved organic matter affected the mobility of PBDEs during the initial stages of the treatment process. About 9% of the influent mass of sigma5PBDE to the facility is estimated to be discharged into the Little River (leading to the Detroit River) with the final effluent, resulting in an estimated mass loading of approximately 0.7 kg/year. The total mass loading of sigma5PBDE to the Detroit River is expected to be much larger as effluent from this facility accounts for <10% of the total STP discharges to the river.     

印染污水三级处理及回用技术

介绍了污水处理后出水与河水混合，经过处理达到印染生产用水要求，应用硅藻土过滤技术替代活性碳过滤，提高水质，降低水的浊度及ＣＯＤｃｒ。     

Seasonal variation in the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in effluents from a sewage treatment plant and in the recipient water

The occurrence of five pharmaceuticals (ibuprofen, naproxen, ketoprofen, diclofenac, and bezafibrate) in the influent and effluent water of a sewage treatment plant (STP) in the recipient river water and in a drinking water treatment plant (DWTP) located downstream from the STP was followed during three seasons: winter, spring, and summer. In the STP, the elimination of the pharmaceuticals decreased significantly (an average of 25% compared to spring and summer) in wintertime leading to increased concentrations of pharmaceuticals in the effluent water. The total concentration of all the studied pharmaceuticals in the effluent water was 3-5 times higher in wintertime (about 2500 ng L(-1)) than during the other seasons (about 500-900 ng L(-1)). Accordingly, the highest concentrations (up to 129 ng L(-1)) in the recipient river were measured in the wintertime. Pharmaceuticals were carried longer distances downstream from the STP when the river was covered by ice and snow. During a drastic increase in water flow rate (i.e., during snowmelting), a fast transportation of the pharmaceuticals was observed. The DWTP located downstream from the STP produced water that contained about 8 ng L(-1) of ibuprofen and ketoprofen in the winter sample, whereas in spring and summer the studied pharmaceuticals could not be detected in the drinking water. The results show that cold seasons in boreal areas can severely increase the environmental risk of pharmaceuticals and the risk for contamination of drinking water.     

Assessing the impact of animal waste lagoon seepage on the geochemistry of an underlying shallow aquifer

Evidence of seepage from animal waste holding lagoons at a dairy facility in the San Joaquin Valley of California is assessed in the context of a process geochemical model that addresses reactions associated with the formation of the lagoon water as well as reactions occurring upon the mixture of lagoon water with underlying aquifer material. Comparison of model results with observed concentrations of NH4+, K+, PO4(3-), dissolved inorganic carbon, pH, Ca2+, Mg2+, SO4(2-), Cl-, and dissolved Ar in lagoon water samples and groundwater samples suggests three key geochemical processes: (i) off-gassing of significant quantities of CO2 and CH4 during mineralization of manure in the lagoon water, (ii) ion exchange reactions that remove K+ and NH4+ from seepage water as it migrates into the underlying anaerobic aquifer material, and (iii) mineral precipitation reactions involving phosphate and carbonate minerals in the lagoon water in response to an increase in pH as well as in the underlying aquifer from elevated Ca2+ and Mg2+ levels generated by ion exchange. Substantial off-gassing from the lagoons is further indicated by dissolved argon concentrations in lagoon water samples that are below atmospheric equilibrium. As such, Ar may serve as a unique tracer for lagoon water seepage since under-saturated Ar concentrations in groundwater are unlikely to be influenced by any processes other than mechanical mixing.     

Estimating the burden of acute gastroenteritis and foodborne illness caused by Campylobacter, Salmonella, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus by using population-based telephone survey data, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, 2005 to 2006

Most cases of acute gastroenteritis and foodborne disease are not ascertained by public health surveillance because the ill person does not always seek medical care and submit a stool sample for testing, and the laboratory does not always test for or identify the causative organism. We estimated the total burden of acute gastroenteritis in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, using data from two 2-week cross-sectional, population-based telephone surveys conducted in 2006 and 2007. To estimate the number of acute gastroenteritis illnesses caused by Campylobacter, Salmonella, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Miyagi Prefecture, we determined the number of cases for each pathogen from active laboratory-based surveillance during 2005 to 2006 and adjusted for seeking of medical care and submission of stool specimens by using data from the population-based telephone surveys. Monte Carlo simulation was used to incorporate uncertainty. The prevalence of acute gastroenteritis in the preceding 4 weeks was 3.3% (70 of 2,126) and 3.5% (74 of 2,121) in the winter and summer months, yielding an estimated 44,200 episodes of acute gastroenteritis each year in this region. Among people with acute gastroenteritis, the physician consultation rate was 32.0%, and 10.9% of persons who sought care submitted a stool sample. The estimated numbers of Campylobacter-, Salmonella-, and V. parahaemolyticus -associated episodes of acute gastroenteritis were 1,512, 209, and 100 per 100,000 population per year, respectively, in this region. These estimates are significantly higher than the number of reported cases in surveillance in this region. Cases ascertained from active surveillance were also underrepresented in the present passive surveillance, suggesting that complementary surveillance systems, such as laboratory-based active surveillance in sentinel sites, are needed to monitor food safety in Japan.     

Characterization and fate of N-nitrosodimethylamine precursors in municipal wastewater treatment plants

The potent carcinogen, N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), is produced during disinfection of municipal wastewater effluent from the reaction of monochloramine and organic nitrogen-containing precursors. To delineate the sources and fate of NDMA precursors during municipal wastewater treatment, NDMA formation was measured after extended chloramination of both model precursors and samples from conventional and advanced wastewater treatment plants. Of the model precursors, only dimethylamine, tertiary amines with dimethylamine functional groups, and dimethylamides formed significant NDMA concentrations upon chloramination. In samples from municipal wastewater treatment plants, dissolved NDMA precursors always were present in primary and secondary effluents. Biological treatment effectively removed the known NDMA precursor dimethylamine, lowering its concentration to levels that could not produce significant quantities of NDMA upon chlorine disinfection. However, biological treatment was less effective at removing other dissolved NDMA precursors, even after extended biological treatment. Significant concentrations of particle-associated NDMA precursors only were detected in secondary effluent at treatment plants that recycled water from sludge thickening operations in which dimethylamine-based synthetic polymers were used. Effective strategies for the prevention of NDMA formation during wastewater chlorination include ammonia removal by nitrification to preclude chloramine formation during chlorine disinfection, elimination of dimethylamine-based polymers, and use of filtration and reverse osmosis to remove particle-associated precursors and dissolved precursors, respectively.     

Risk factors identified on arrival associated with morbidity and mortality at a grain-fed veal facility: A prospective,single-cohort study

High levels of morbidity, mortality, and antimicrobial use are common in the veal industry. For the sustainability of the industry, it is important to address these challenges and determine factors that can be used to improve animal health and welfare. The objectives of this prospective observational cohort study were to describe the health status of calves on arrival at a grain-fed veal facility and determine characteristics that were associated with morbidity and mortality. On arrival, the calves were assessed for health abnormalities, weighed, measured for hip height and length from withers to lumbosacral junction, and had blood collected to determine serum total protein level. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated using weight on arrival divided by the sum of the calf's length from withers to lumbosacral junction and hip height. The calves were observed for 77 d after arrival, during which the producer was responsible for recording all antibiotic treatments and mortality. We built Cox proportional hazard models for morbidity and mortality variables. We created 2 morbidity models: 1 for calves that were treated <21 d after arrival at the facility, and 1 for calves that were treated during the 11 wk at the facility. From January to December 2017, 998 calves were evaluated on arrival at the veal rearing facility. A large proportion (68%) were treated with antibiotics in the first 21 d after arrival. The only explanatory variable in the final <21 d morbidity model was BMI: calves with a higher BMI had a lower hazard of being treated for disease in the first 21 d after arrival. A total of 872 calves (87%) were treated at least once over the 11-wk housing period. A calf arriving with a BMI >371.46 g/cm or a serum total protein between 5.8 and 6.2 g/dL had a lower level of morbidity during the observation period. Over the 11-wk housing period, 74 calves (7.5%) died. Calves that arrived at the facility with a fecal score of 2 or a rectal temperature between 38.9 and 39.1°C had a higher hazard of dying; calves that had a BMI of >371 g/cm were less likely to die than calves that had a BMI <330 g/cm. These results point to the importance of assessing calves on arrival at a veal facility as a measure of identifying those at high risk for morbidity and mortality.     

Occurrence and fate of macrolide antibiotics in wastewater treatment plants and in the Glatt Valley watershed, Switzerland

An analytical method was developed for determining macrolide antibiotics in treated wastewater effluents and in ambient water based on solid-phase extraction and LC/MS analysis as well as on LC/MS/MS for structural confirmation. In wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) macrolides are only partly eliminated and can therefore reach the aquatic environment. In treated effluents from three WWTPs in Switzerland, clarithromycin, roxithromycin, and erythromycin-H2O, the main degradation product of erythromycin, were found. The most abundant, clarithromycin, reflects the consumption pattern of macrolide antibiotics. Summer concentrations of clarithromycin varied between 57 and 330 ng/L in treated WWTP effluents. In the WWTP Kloten-Opfikon seasonal differences revealed a load two times higher in winter than in summer. The higher abundance of erythromycin-H2O in the effluent of WWTP Kloten-Opfikon can be explained by distinct consumption patterns due to the main international airport of Switzerland in the catchment area. In the Glatt River clarithromycin reached concentrations of up to 75 ng/L. Mass flux determinations in treated effluents and in river water in the Glatt Valley watershed showed that elimination of clarithromycin along the river stretch of 36 km is insignificant (<20%). Investigations in the Glatt River before and after the diversion of the largest WWTP revealed an observable decrease in clarithromycin loads.     

Innovative nonthermal technologies for inactivation of emerging foodborne viruses

Various foodborne viruses have been associated with human health during the last decade, causing gastroenteritis and a huge economic burden worldwide. Furthermore, the emergence of new variants of infectious viruses is growing continuously. Inactivation of foodborne viruses in the food industry is a formidable task because although viruses cannot grow in foods, they can survive in the food matrix during food processing and storage environments. Conventional inactivation methods pose various drawbacks, necessitating more effective and environmentally friendly techniques for controlling foodborne viruses during food production and processing. Various inactivation approaches for controlling foodborne viruses have been attempted in the food industry. However, some traditionally used techniques, such as disinfectant-based or heat treatment, are not always efficient. Nonthermal techniques are considered a new platform for effective and safe treatment to inactivate foodborne viruses. This review focuses on foodborne viruses commonly associated with human gastroenteritis, including newly emerged viruses, such as sapovirus and Aichi virus. It also investigates the use of chemical and nonthermal physical treatments as effective technologies to inactivate foodborne viruses.     

Regional public health cost estimates of contaminated coastal waters: a case study of gastroenteritis at southern California beaches

We present estimates of annual public health impacts, both illnesses and cost of illness, attributable to excess gastrointestinal illnesses caused by swimming in contaminated coastal waters at beaches in southern California. Beach-specific enterococci densities are used as inputs to two epidemiological dose-response models to predict the risk of gastrointestinal illness at 28 beaches spanning 160 km of coastline in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. We use attendance data along with the health cost of gastrointestinal illness to estimate the number of illnesses among swimmers and their likely economic impact. We estimate that between 627,800 and 1,479,200 excess gastrointestinal illnesses occur at beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties each year. Using a conservative health cost of gastroenteritis, this corresponds to an annual economic loss of dollars 21 or dollars 51 million depending upon the underlying epidemiological model used (in year 2000 dollars). Results demonstrate that improving coastal water quality could result in a reduction of gastrointestinal illnesses locally and a concurrent savings in expenditures on related health care costs.     

Possible increase of human Taenia saginata infections through import of beef to Norway from a high prevalence area

A Monte Carlo risk assessment model was developed to estimate the public health risk of importing prime cuts of beef infested with Taenia saginata to Norway from an endemic area in southern Africa. The model predicted that 21 (lower 5% = 1, upper 95% = 56) viable cysts would be present in domestic prime cuts during 1996 and 1997, with 8 (0 to 21) of them being ingested without sufficient heat treatment to kill the parasite. These cysts were expected to cause 2 (0 to 7) human infections. Corresponding figures for the imported prime cuts were 1,260 (99 to 2,900) viable cysts, 462 (37 to 1,065) ingested without sufficient heat treatment, causing 132 (8 to 361) human infections. The model was sensitive to the uncertainties related to the estimates of probabilities of cysts being viable and the probability of their causing infection in humans. The public health impact from consuming imported beef is not large, but the model illustrates how imported cuts may change the epidemiological pattern of a disease even when the import constitutes only 3% of the prime cuts consumed.     

Trimethylsilyl derivatives of organic compounds in source samples and in atmospheric fine particulate matter

Source sample extracts of vegetative detritus, motor vehicle exhaust, tire dust paved road dust, and cigarette smoke have been silylated and analyzed by GC-MS to identify polar organic compounds that may serve as tracers for those specific emission sources of atmospheric fine particulate matter. Candidate molecular tracers were also identified in atmospheric fine particle samples collected in the San Joaquin Valley of California. A series of normal primary alkanols, dominated by even carbon-numbered homologues from C26 to C32, the secondary alcohol 10-nonacosanol, and some phytosterols are prominent polar compounds in the vegetative detritus source sample. No new polar organic compounds are found in the motor vehicle exhaust samples. Several hydrogenated resin acids are present in the tire dust sample, which might serve as useful tracers for those sources in areas that are heavily impacted by motor vehicle traffic. Finally, the alcohol and sterol emission profiles developed for all the source samples examined in this project are scaled according to the ambient fine particle mass concentrations attributed to those sources by a chemical mass balance receptor model that was previously applied to the San Joaquin Valley to compute the predicted atmospheric concentrations of individual alcohols and sterols. The resulting underprediction of alkanol concentrations at the urban sites suggests that alkanols may be more sensitive tracers for natural background from vegetative emissions (i.e., waxes) than the high molecular weight alkanes, which have been the best previously available tracers for that source.     

Treatment practices after calving-related events on 45 dairy farms in California

Retained fetal membranes (RFM), dystocia, and twinning are common postpartum events that increase the risk of metritis, impair reproductive performance, and contribute to antimicrobial use on dairies. The overall objective of this study was to describe treatment decisions after RFM, severe dystocia (cesarean section and fetotomy), nonsevere dystocia (nonmechanical and mechanical assistance to extract the calf), and twinning. A total of 44 dairies from California's San Joaquin Valley (39 Holstein and 6 Jersey or crossbreed herds) with 450 to 9,500 lactating cows were enrolled in this study. Researchers visited each dairy once to observe cow-side fresh cow health evaluations and to interview health evaluators and maternity workers, using a standardized survey tool. The survey included questions about antimicrobial (class, dose, and duration) and nonantimicrobial therapies for calving-related events. Antimicrobial therapy was used in all 44 dairies to treat RFM at 24 (n = 23), 48 (n = 10), or 72 h (n = 5) after calving, or when puerperal metritis signs were observed (n = 6). Antimicrobial therapy was used after all severe dystocia cases, and after nonsevere dystocia (n = 27) and twinning (n = 15). Ceftiofur products were the most common antimicrobial class; they were used to treat RFM cases (n = 29), nonsevere dystocia (n = 13), and twinning (n = 10). Supportive therapy for calving-related events included nonantimicrobial intrauterine treatments, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs, oxytocin, i.v. calcium, or oral drenches. Our study highlights opportunities to reduce extra-label use of antimicrobials in postpartum cows affected with RFM, and the need for education and outreach efforts on judicious use of antimicrobials. Furthermore, antimicrobial treatment choices differed largely across dairies, indicating a need to reach consensus and promote standardized practices within the industry.     

ASSESSING LYCOPENE CONTENT IN CALIFORNIA PROCESSING TOMATOES

Tomatoes constitute the main source of lycopene in the U.S. diet. Growing interest in the potential health‐protective role of lycopene is bringing attention to the content of lycopene in tomatoes. A wide range of lycopene content (55–181 mg/kg) was observed in juice prepared from selected cultivars of tomatoes grown in nine California counties. A comparison of cultivars H 8892, H 9665 and Halley 3155 grown in Colusa, Fresno, San Joaquin and Yolo counties during three seasons concludes that mean lycopene concentrations were significantly greater (P < 0.01) in 2000 (106 mg/kg) than in 1999 (101 mg/kg) and 2001 (88 mg/kg). An evaluation of nine processing tomato cultivars harvested in one season on four separate dates indicated that lycopene concentration of tomatoes decreases with maturation on the plant. Lycopene concentration of tomatoes is dependent on the growing season, location, cultivar and maturity.     

A quantitative risk assessment of the public health impact of the Finnish Salmonella control program for broilers

In order to study the public health effects of the Finnish Salmonella control program (FSCP), a quantitative risk assessment model of Salmonella from slaughtered broiler flocks to consumers was developed. Based on the model, approximately 0.21% of domestically produced broiler meat mass was contaminated with Salmonella (95% probability interval 0.05-0.48%). This model was combined to the model on primary production of broilers. By this way, the effect of eliminating breeder flocks from production which have tested positive for Salmonella and heat-treating the meat of detected positive broiler flocks on public health could be simulated. Based on the whole model, if detected positive breeder flocks were not removed this would result in 1.0-2.5 more reported human cases compared to the expected number of cases under current FSCP (95% predictive interval). Without heat treatment of meat the increase would be 2.9-5.4-fold and without both interventions 3.8-9.0-fold. In scenarios with one grandparent or five parent flocks infected, the combined effect of these two interventions was 9.3-25.8-fold and 4.9-11.7-fold compared to the baseline level under each scenario, respectively. The scenario analyses suggest that with a higher infection level, inclusion of both interventions will be more effective than either of the interventions alone. Replacement of half of the current retail broiler meat by meat with 20-40% contamination could result in 33-93 times more human cases compared to the expected value under current situations. On the basis of the model, the interventions applied in FSCP clearly protect the public health.