浅谈城市天然气居民用户气量预测

通过介绍居民用气量计算公式中用气量指标及气化率两个不确定参数的影响因素,阐述了居民用气量预测的难度及重要性,旨在通过分析掌握居民用气指标和用气规律,从而准确预测居民用气量。     

工业园区工业用气负荷预测

以成都某工业园区燃气专项规划为研究对象,对成都市相同类型的工业生产用气及工业生活用气负荷进行统计归类并分析总结,得到相同类型工业企业单位面积用气量指标.根据各工业企业的经营发展规划或单位面积用气量指标预测工业园区的工业近期、远期生产用气及生活用气日负荷.     

燃气管网规划用气量预测的设计思路

在进行用气量预测时,应根据用户性质进行区分,按不同性质、不同用途的用户,采用不同用气量指标进行计算,进而得出总用气量。     

天津天然气用气量与GDP的拟合曲线

基于天津天然气用气量与GDP的数据,建立了拟合曲线,找出了两者的函数关系.分析了天津天然气用气量随GDP的增长趋势.     

城镇燃气各类用户用气量预测方法研究

阐述了城镇燃气各类用户用气量的预测方法,介绍了因果分析法在城镇燃气用气量预测中的应用,结合某地区燃气负荷数据进行了模拟预测,预测结果达到要求。     

天然气采暖通气量的计算

介绍了根据采明期度日数原理计算天然气采暖用气量的方法，从而将采暖用气量与室外平均温度的变化结合起来，并在北京市1950-1980年室外气象资料的基础上，利用此方法计算出了采暖季各月的用气量比例。     

天燃气采暖用气量的计算

介绍了根据采暖期度日数原理计算天然气采暖用气量的方法,从而将采暖用气量与室外平均温度的变化结合起来,并在北京市1950—1980年室外气象资料的基础上,利用此方法计算出了采暖季各月的用气量比例。     

居民生活用气量指标与家用电器影响因子研究

对统计数据通过数理统计方法,按95％的置信度进行计算,得到居民生活用气量指标的置信区间。分析了居民生活用气量指标的影响因素,得出了家用电器对居民生活用气量指标的影响因子。     

规划中居民的用气高峰小时计算流量

在城市规划方案里,市政燃气配套规划中的用气量计算是制定燃气管网输配计划和燃气系统发展规划的基础。文章说明了精确的用气量计算对于燃气系统经济性、安全性及可靠性具有特别重要的意义;阐述了居民用户经验年用气量和居民用户实际开户率对居民高峰小时计算流量的影响;探讨了居民高峰小时计算流量的计算方法。     

基于聚合回归的城市燃气用户用气量主要影响因素分析

本文以成都市WJ区城市燃气用户为研究对象,采用关联规则挖掘方法,挖掘用户用气量大小及四季波动情况与用户性质、气表类型、壁挂炉采暖使用情况等因素之间的关系。通过收集一定时期内的温度和用气量数据,采用聚合回归分析建立量化模型,同时评估模型表现和进行预测和分析。研究结果表明,温度是影响用户用气量的主要影响因素之一,建立的温度和用气量的量化关系模型能够较好地预测用气量的变化。     

以工业为主的区域天然气用气结构及增长特点

对以工业为主的天津泰达开发区的天然气用气结构和用气量增长特点进行了分析。以工业为主的区域的小时高峰系数远低于以居民用气为主的区域,工业、公共建筑用户的供暖用气造成月高峰系数较高,天然气用气量跳跃式增长。     

住宅小区天然气供暖用气指标的研究

以北京使用天然气供热锅炉房为热源的住宅小区为例,通过数理统计方法得到北京市住宅小区供暖期供暖用气指标,分析了供暖用气的月、日用气规律。探讨了气象条件对供暖日用气负荷的影响,日用气负荷与室外日平均温度、日平均风速、日总辐射量关系密切,与日平均相对湿度、降水量关系不密切。建立了数学模型,得出了日用气负荷与室外日平均温度、日平均风速、日总辐射量的关系。     

Modeling unaccounted-for gas among residential natural gas consumers using a comprehensive fuzzy cognitive map

Residential natural gas consumption depends on several factors. Available tools and methods to identify, categorize, and validate effective factors have some limitations, making consumption modeling more complex. Once a comprehensive model of effective consumption factors is developed for residential gas consumers, it can predict consumption. In addition, such a model could be used to verify the accuracy of measuring devices in order to reduce unaccounted for gas (UFG). The key factors affecting residential gas consumption were identified based on previous studies and their mutual effects were analyzed using a fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) method. The most significant factors and their effects on natural gas consumption in the residential sector were determined. In this study, for the first time, the expected consumption for each consumer was estimated using a consumption index. Generally, if the estimated consumption is significantly different from the amount recorded by the meter, it could suggest a potential source of UFG. The proposed method was applied to the data collected from the residential gas consumers of a small region in Iran (Dasht-e Arjan region, Fars province), and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

热计量对燃气集中供暖用气规律及储气的影响

分析了住宅建筑、公共建筑热计量前后的小时耗热量变化规律和供暖用气的供需平衡,对比了热计量前、住宅建筑热计量后、公共建筑热计量后、住宅建筑用户占60％和公共建筑用户占40％的综合区域热计量后所需的储气容积.热计量实施后,需要更大的储气容积来平衡集中供暖小时用气的不均匀性.     

家用燃气壁挂炉居民用户用气规律研究

以北京市某天然气调压站所供安装家用燃气壁挂炉的居民小区为例,通过数理统计方法得到家用燃气壁挂炉居民用户的用气指标以及月、日、时高峰系数,探讨了日平均用气负荷与日平均气温的关系,对二者进行了回归分析。     

Stochastic analysis of natural gas consumption in residential and commercial buildings

Consumer consumption characteristic is an important asset for safe design and management of gas distribution networks. Different characteristics of natural gas consumption in residential and commercial buildings are studied from statistical and stochastic points of view. The technique is applied during 2008 and 2009 to a densely populated district in Tehran, Iran, with relatively large number of buildings (67,655 residential and 13,286 commercial buildings). There are different trends in the histograms of gas consumption, but there is a general trend in diagrams of probability index (the probability of gas consumption exceeding a specific value) and their regressions. The most frequent amount of gas consumption for all 45-day periods is 100 m³ as compared with the annual average of 320 m³ for residential buildings. The latter reduces to 80 m³ for the averaged periodic consumption per unit in a building. Also it seems that the most frequent amount of periodic gas consumption of residential buildings is about 31% of their respective annual average during the warm months of the year, and 150% during the cold months. Periodic consumptions less than 1500 m³ and average consumptions less than 1400 m³ are more probable in residential buildings, which are larger than that of commercial ones, but this trend reverses at higher consumption values. If actual consumption is normalized by the average consumption, the number of units in the building or the floor area, the probability index of commercial buildings is generally higher than residential ones. The binomial distribution is analytically used to predict the probability of average gas consumption exceeding 320 and 2000 m³ in two example cases of 500 and 1000 buildings.     

城市天然气输配方案的选择

讨论了居民用气量、储气调峰方案、管网压力级制对燃气输配工程投资的影响，推荐采用管道与球罐共同储气调峰和中压一级输配管网。     

北京市燃气热水器夏季用气量与时不均匀性

对北京市居民用户夏季使用燃气热水器洗澡的用气量及时不均匀性进行了调查研究。采用简单随机抽样方法建立样本,分析了天气、用户年龄对用户每周的洗澡次数、每次洗澡用气量的影响,得到时不均匀系数曲线及小时高峰系数。     

居民小区燃气负荷规律与短期负荷预测

根据居民小区现有的用气量数据,对时、日和月燃气负荷规律进行分析,得出燃气负荷的时高峰系数、日高峰系数和月高峰系数,运用时间序列理论对居民燃气时负荷进行了预测。     

分户燃气供暖方式调研分析

对北京市两住宅小区的98个采用分户燃气锅炉供暖的住户作了整个供暖季的测试和跟踪调研，获取了大量的实际数据。通过计算分析，从燃气耗量及其影响因素、室内温度设定值与实测值、舒适性、操作方便性、噪声、安全感、分散排烟对环境的影响等方面评价了这种方式，并给出了经济性、节能性方面与其他供暖方式的比较结果。