Applying Ecological Engineering for Sustainable and Resilient Rice Production Systems

Global changes will affect rice ecosystems at local levels. Although issues of climate change have received most attention, other global changes will have more immediate impacts on crop productivity and health. These changes include the phenomenal advances in modern industrial output, especially in China and India, in mechanization, in communications technology and advertizing, in transportation networks and connectivity, as well as demographic shifts toward urban centers. Driven by policies around food security, market impacts on crop production, and trade regulations, these changes will define crop production systems into the future, impacting rice biodiversity and ecosystem function and giving rise to new pest and disease scenarios. This paper presents a framework for a holistic approach to ‘rice ecosystem health’ aimed at securing food production while protecting farmer, consumer and ecosystem health. Recent advances in environmentally friendly agriculture, including ecological engineering, are central to the sustainability and resilience of rice ecosystems; but require support from policy to ensure their best effects. This paper introduces some recent advances in the methods of ecological engineering based on research conducted in the Philippines.     

A risk modeling framework to evaluate the impacts of climate change and adaptation on food and water safety

Climate change may be a factor leading to increased risks of food- and waterborne illnesses from consumption of existing and emerging biological hazards. It is beneficial to develop integrated approaches to evaluate, and provide scientific assessments of, potential climate change adaptation measures to inform risk management related to climate and weather events. To this end, a risk modeling framework was created to facilitate estimations of the impact of weather and climate change on public health risks from biological hazards in food and water and to compare potential adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The framework integrates knowledge synthesis methods, data storage and maintenance, and stochastic modeling. Risk assessment models were developed for food and water safety case studies for demonstrative purposes. Scenario analyses indicated that implementing intervention measures to adapt to changing climate impacts might mitigate future public health risks from pathogens to varying degrees. The framework brings a generic approach to allow for comparison of relative public health risks and potential adaptation strategies across hazards, exposure pathways, and regions to assist with preventive efforts and decision-making.     

Price transmission analysis using threshold models: an application to local rice markets in Benin and Mali

In most African countries, spatial dispersion of production and consumption often results in high transaction costs that prevent farmers from accessing markets and causes asymmetry in price transmission. The objective of this study was to provide the baseline information on local rice price transmission between paired producer and consumer markets in Benin and Mali. To achieve this, we used Enders and Siklos’s threshold models on monthly price series from 2000 to 2010 to examine the nature of price transmission between selected markets in the surplus zones and the nearest important consumption markets. The results for Benin indicated that price transmission between markets in the surplus zone and the consumption markets was asymmetric, probably because of the prevalence of high transaction costs. These results showed that increases in price in the surplus-zone market were more quickly transmitted to the consumer market than decreases in price. Conversely, the results for Mali indicated symmetric price transmission between the market in the surplus zone and the consumer market, suggesting the prevalence of lower transaction costs. These results highlight the need for policies aiming to lower transaction costs observed in selected local rice markets in Benin. Specific policies, such as investment in public infrastructure, e.g. roads, could promote the vertical integration of local rice production with marketing. This would be crucial to achieving rice farmers’ food security and hence their wellbeing.     

Using land to mitigate climate change: hitting the target, recognizing the trade-offs

Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth's average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C - Energy-Only policy) or a net source (-21 Pg C - No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.     

Climate change and food safety: A review

Climate change and variability may have an impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of the food chain, from primary production through to consumption. There are multiple pathways through which climate related factors may impact food safety including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, and changes in contaminants’ transport pathways among others. Climate change may also affect socio-economic aspects related to food systems such as agriculture, animal production, global trade, demographics and human behaviour which all influence food safety.This paper reviews the potential impacts of predicted changes in climate on food contamination and food safety at various stages of the food chain and identifies adaptation strategies and research priorities to address food safety implications of climate change. The paper concludes that there is a need for intersectoral and international cooperation to better understand the changing food safety situation and in developing and implementing adaptation strategies to address emerging risks associated with climate change.     

The political economy of food price policy during the global food price crisis of 2006-2008

This paper finds support for seven political economy hypotheses that influenced governments’ policy choices during the 2006–2008 global food price crisis. Governments focused most heavily on consumer and trade policies rather than on policies designed to increase production. They also preferred policy changes with lower implementation costs, implying that responses to past crises were the best predictor of future actions. To explain the variety of responses and policy failures, a framework is proposed that locates policies along the twin dimensions of unitary vs. fragmented decision-making processes and social welfare maximizing vs. self-interested policy goals. Many of the common policy responses can be explained by a benchmark model of unitary decision makers seeking to increase social welfare. In contrast, fragmented government decision-making, uncertainty, and self-interest generate policy and implementation failures, significant departures from the benchmark model, and reductions in social welfare. Mistrust between government and the private sector causes a lack of transparency, which fuels mistrust and uncertainty, leading to additional policy and implementation failures.     

全球经济政策不确定性对中国粮食价格波动影响的实证分析（网络首发、推荐阅读）

不断调整的国内外经济政策,不仅对我国利用国际市场资源带来挑战,还可能通过价格传导的形式影响国内粮食价格,甚至粮食生产。在广泛搜集影响粮食价格波动相关因素的基础上,采用主成分分析和时变参数因子增强向量自回归模型（TVP-FAVAR）相结合的方法,分析了供求因素、金融及能源因素以及全球经济政策不稳定性对我国粮食价格的影响。主要研究发现如下：全球经济政策不确定性对国内粮食价格有显著的负向冲击;不同种类粮食价格对不确定性冲击的响应是有差异的。针对模型结果,提出如下政策建议：在中美贸易战愈演愈烈的今天,面对来自国际市场的不确定性冲击,政策制定者应该采取组合策略平抑国际市场的冲击;政策制定者应针对不同粮食品种实施有差别的价格政策和调节手段;加强粮食市场信息监测系统建设,提高根据价格监测信息准确解读市场行情的能力,制定多样化价格调整政策来抵消外部市场的不确定性冲击;我国可以通过与更多具有粮食出口潜力的国家实施更多的贸易自由协定,为国民寻求更加稳定的外部供给渠道,减缓主要国家贸易政策不稳定性带来的不利影响。     

The future role of agriculture in the Arab region’s food security

The 2007–2008 food crisis and subsequent economic recession have severely undermined food security and agricultural sustainability worldwide. Failures in market functioning and trade openness have posed particularly high risks to the import-dependent countries in the Arab region. Many of the global causes of the price spikes are still in place, creating uncertainty about food availability and access in the future. Especially in the Arab region, these uncertainties are compounded by water scarcity. A long-term outlook is essential for formulating appropriate policy and investment strategies in order to ensure future food security for the region. After a brief discussion of trends in agricultural growth and investment, this paper presents projections by the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) on agriculture production, trade, demand, prices, and food security up to 2025 and 2050. Simulations are used to compare a baseline scenario (with climate change) with two scenarios incorporating increased investment and supportive policies. The results highlight the key role of agricultural research, as well as expanded irrigation, improved natural resource management, and enhanced market efficiency, in improving food security. Four priority areas are proposed: investments in agricultural research and development, rural infrastructure, and rural institutions; more open regional and international trade to facilitate commodity flows and alleviate supply shortages; pro-poor food and nutrition interventions; and cross-cutting issues of policy coherence, gender dimensions, inclusion of traditional populations, and coordination mechanisms to deal with climate change and ecosystem challenges.     

Adaptation to climate change and the impacts on household food security among rural farmers in uMzinyathi District of Kwazulu-Natal,South Africa

It is anticipated that smallholder subsistence farmers will face severe negative impacts from climate change, with household food security being seriously affected. This paper examines the methods of adaptation to climate change used by smallholder farmers and their impacts on household food security. The necessity to adapt to climate change is caused by a combination of sensitivity and exposure and the success in doing so depends on adaptive capacity. Household food security was determined using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS). Of the surveyed households, 95 % were aware that climate is changing and expected severe impacts on their crop production systems. Households undertake crop and soil management practices in order to respond to the changing climate. About 83 % of households anticipated that they would alter their livelihoods systems in response to climate change, with 59 % of households indicating that government grants would play an important role in this. Of those assessed, 97 % were severely food insecure and the remaining 3 % were moderately food insecure. Householders were worried about the negative impacts of climate change which included droughts, floods and soil erosion. Householders who were vulnerable to climate change recorded high levels of food insecurity. Decline in prices of farm products, increases in costs of farm inputs and anxiety over occurrence of livestock diseases exacerbated household food insecurity. Information will play a critical role in mitigating the impacts of climate change on household food security but farmers should also be assisted with appropriate input packages, such as seeds and fertilizers that can help them adapt effectively.     

Prospects for sustainability of pig production in relation to climate change and novel feed resources

Pig production systems provide multiple benefits to humans. However, the global increase in meat consumption has profound consequences for our earth. This perspective describes two alternative scenarios for improving the sustainability of future pig production systems. The first scenario is a high input–high output system based on sustainable intensification, maximizing animal protein production efficiency on a limited land surface at the same time as minimizing environmental impacts. The second scenario is a reduced input–reduced output system based on selecting animals that are more robust to climate change and are better adapted to transform low quality feed (local feeds, feedstuff co-products, food waste) into meat. However, in contrast to the first scenario, the latter scenario results in reduced predicted yields, reduced production efficiency and possibly increased costs to the consumer. National evaluation of the availability of local feed and feedstuff co-product alternatives, determination of limits to feed sourced from international markets, available land for crop and livestock production, desired production levels, and a willingness to politically enforce policies through subsidies and/or penalties are some of the considerations to combine these two scenarios. Given future novel sustainable alternatives to livestock animal protein, it may become reasonable to move towards an added general premium price on ‘protein from livestock animals’ to the benefit of promoting higher incomes to farmers at the same time as covering the extra costs of, politically enforced, welfare of livestock animals in sustainable production systems. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.     

Addressing the challenges of climate change and biofuel production for food and nutrition security

More than one billion people are suffering hunger and malnutrition in 2009. Food security has deteriorated since 1995 and reductions in child malnutrition are proceeding too slowly to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of halving hunger by 2015. Three major challenges threaten current and future efforts to overcome food insecurity and malnutrition: climate and global environmental change and the consequent loss of ecosystems’ services, the growing use of food crops as a source of fuel and the food and financial crises. This paper reviews and analyses the current and projected effects of climate change and bioenergy on nutrition and proposes policy recommendations to address these challenges. The first section of the review lays out the public health and socio-economic consequences of malnutrition and explores causes and costs. The paper then analyses the implications of climate and global environmental change and biofuel production for food security and nutrition, addressing strategies for adaptation and mitigation. This analysis includes a number of important socio-economic factors, besides climate change and biofuel production, that are currently impacting food and nutrition security, and that will likely contribute to future effects. The paper concludes with a series of policy proposals and recommendations to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate and global environmental change placing human rights in the centre of decision making. These proposals include a number of options for improving sustainability and food and nutrition security while addressing the links between climate change and bioenergy demand.     

Household food security in the face of climate change in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region

This study attempts to understand local people’s perceptions of climate change, its impacts on agriculture and household food security, and local adaptation strategies in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, using data from 8083 households (HHs) from four river sub-basins (SBs), i.e. Upper Indus (Pakistan), Eastern Brahmaputra (India), Koshi (Nepal) and Salween and Mekong (China). The majority of households in SBs, in recent years, have perceived that there have been more frequent incidences of floods, landslides, droughts, livestock diseases and crop pests, and have attributed these to climate change. These changes have led to low agricultural production and income, particularly in Eastern Brahmaputra (EB) where a substantial proportion of HHs reported a decline in the production of almost all staple and cash crops, resulting in very low farm income. Consequently, households’ dependency on external food items supplied from plain areas has increased, particularly in the Upper Indus (UI) and EB. After hazards, households face transitory food insecurity owing to damage to their local food systems and livelihood sources, and constrained food supply from other areas. To cope with these, HHs in SBs make changes in their farming practices and livestock management. In EB, 11 % of HHs took on new off-farm activities within the SB and in SM, 23 % of HHs chose out-migration as an adaptation strategy. Lastly, the study proposes policy instruments for attaining sustainable food security, based on agro-ecological potential and opportunities for increasing agricultural resilience and diversity of livelihoods.     

The short- and medium- term impacts of rises in staple food prices

There is widespread concern about the impact of recent food price rises on the welfare and food security of poor people and about future impacts of high prices. Responses to these concerns are, however, sometimes clouded by lack of clarity about the nature of short and medium term impacts of food price changes for different people. This paper reviews both theory and empirical evidence on these impacts. It finds that theory and empirical evidence are broadly complementary and consistent, with a high degree of variability in impacts. In broad terms staple food price increases have had very serious effects on the poor in national or local economies which have experienced high food price shocks without broad based growth processes. Poor net buyers of food, in both rural and urban communities, have been most negatively affected, with limited second order benefits from high staple food prices tightening labour markets in poor rural economies. Short term impacts can be ameliorated by economic growth and, for international food price increases, by limited price transmission. Economic growth and lower domestic price transmission of high international prices in different countries, notably India and China, have led to lower increases in global poverty, hunger and malnourishment than hunger and poverty simulations have suggested. However these findings should not detract from the very serious impacts high food prices have had for very large numbers of very poor people in poor countries, and the need for policies and action to address this.     

Quantifying carbon footprint reduction opportunities for U.S. households and communities

Carbon management is of increasing interest to individuals, households, and communities. In order to effectively assess and manage their climate impacts, individuals need information on the financial and greenhouse gas benefits of effective mitigation opportunities. We use consumption-based life cycle accounting techniques to quantify the carbon footprints of typical U.S. households in 28 cities for 6 household sizes and 12 income brackets. The model includes emissions embodied in transportation, energy, water, waste, food, goods, and services. We further quantify greenhouse gas and financial savings from 13 potential mitigation actions across all household types. The model suggests that the size and composition of carbon footprints vary dramatically between geographic regions and within regions based on basic demographic characteristics. Despite these differences, large cash-positive carbon footprint reductions are evident across all household types and locations; however, realizing this potential may require tailoring policies and programs to different population segments with very different carbon footprint profiles. The results of this model have been incorporated into an open access online carbon footprint management tool designed to enable behavior change at the household level through personalized feedback.     

Managing grapevines to optimise fruit development in a challenging environment: a climate change primer for viticulturists

Grapevine reproductive development extends over two seasons, and the genotypic expression of yield potential and fruit composition is subject to environmental impacts, which include viticultural manipulations, throughout this period. This paper reviews current knowledge on yield formation and fruit composition and attempts to identify challenges, opportunities and priorities for research and practice. The present analysis of published information gives a critical appraisal of recent advances concerning variables, especially as they relate to global climate change, that influence yield formation and fruit composition at harvest. Exciting discoveries in fundamental research on the one hand and an increasing focus on outcomes and knowledge transfer on the other are enabling the development and implementation of practical recommendations that will impact grape production in the future. Future research should aim to minimise seasonal variation and optimise the profitable and sustainable production of high-quality fruit for specific uses in the face of climate change, water and labour shortages, shifting consumer preferences and global competition. Better control of product quantity and quality, and differentiation to meet consumer demands and market preferences will enhance the competitiveness and sustainability of the global grape and wine industries.     

Livestock and food security in the Arab region: policy framework

Livestock keeping constitutes a traditional and important economic activity in the Arab region. This paper aims to assess the role of the Arab livestock sector in food and nutritional security in terms of demand, supply, national policies and trade in the light of major environmental constraints, with data illustrations from Morocco (Mediterranean country) and Saudi Arabia (oil-rich country). Demand for livestock products is increasing in the Arab region driven by the growing population with different degrees of increased urbanization and wealth. On the supply side, local livestock production is largely based on rainfed mixed and pastoral livestock systems making it vulnerable to the effects of climate change and water scarcity. Intensive systems, where present, are mostly dependent on feed imports with an important water footprint. Livestock production is further conditioned by a history of arbitrary national policies that had a particularly negative effect on small producers and contributed to the degradation of national resources. Arab countries rely on trade from the world market to fill their gap in animal feed and livestock products with varying trading power based on wealth and the availability of free trade agreements. Following analysis of the sector, the paper concludes with the proposition of a pro-poor policy framework for the development of a sustainable Arab livestock sector.     

The vital role of science in global policy decision-making: An analysis of past, current, and forecasted trends and issues in global red meat trade and policy

As global populations and economies change, the dynamics of global trade and policy change as well. In analyzing the past trends and projections for global populations, economic developments, animal product production and consumption, global trade policy, and current issues being faced, one can begin to make some predictions or projections as to how the global red meat and poultry infrastructure will change and, more importantly, point to areas where a proactive approach is necessary to shape these changes to meet the most globally beneficial end. Many issues face the global red meat industry, from food safety to animal disease, and are becoming more and more complicated as consumer knowledge increases and as politics intervene. Internationalized science is key and vital in the future of global trade policy as science can address the more informed consumer in a manner, which reduces anxiety over unknowns. The role of the industry is to provide the information and knowledge to the consumer necessary to convey the validity of globally accepted standards, which relate to ensuring consumer safety, animal welfare, and provide assurances that these standards are being met within the production sector.     

东盟食品安全标准协调与监管一体化现状研究

随着东盟贸易协定与贸易政策推动贸易的快速发展,东盟在食用农产品领域充分发挥区域优势,并与我国成为最大的贸易合作伙伴。东盟地区日益增长的食品贸易技术壁垒措施表明,各成员国在本国优势产业及产品制定标准与监管措施方面存在较大差异。东盟目前已初步建立统一的食品安全标准法规框架,包括确立食品协调与互认标准、技术规范、食品安全政策等,以扩大区域贸易影响力。掌握东盟地区贸易壁垒措施实施情况,以及东盟食品安全标准协调与监管现状,有利于维护公共安全、降低贸易成本和应对可能的贸易壁垒,并进一步加强我国与东盟在重点领域标准、技术法规及监管等方面的一体化合作。     

有机食品产业——前景广阔的“新大陆”

<正> 在5月29日至31日于上海光大会展中心成功举办的中国国际有机食品博览会(BioFach China)上,有机食品行业展示了一派欣欣向荣的景象。随着生活水平的提高和健康意识的增强,消费者对食品的安全和健康提出了愈来愈高的期望,这也使得有机食品成为了食品行业中的一颗新星。作为高品质食品的代表,有机食品的价格是国内常规食品的3～5倍,是食品行业中不折不扣的"新贵",而因为具有健康、天然、环保等