基于强化健康指数相似度量的航空发动机失效阈值设置

针对航空发动机剩余寿命预测中多监测参数对发动机性能退化表征能力不强及失效阈值设置困难问题,采用强化健康指数相似度量法进行了失效阈值加权设置.该方法首先利用Box–Cox变换增强发动机监测参量与飞行循环间的关联性,再采用降噪自编码器进行退化特征的提取.为了增强退化特征对发动机剩余使用寿命的表征能力,采用多重核典型相关技术构建发动机的统一健康指数(HI).引入全阶时间幂灰色预测模型对全寿命参考发动机HI的失效阈值进行预测,并结合基于KL距离的HI曲线相似度量方法对失效阈值加权融合,以确定测试发动机的失效阈值.试验结果表明,本文提出的失效阈值设置方法充分考虑了航空发动机性能退化过程的个体差异性与相似性,克服了传统失效阈值的主观设置问题,有效地提高了航空发动机RUL的预测精度,为实现航空发动机的健康管理提供一种新思路与手段.     

基于数据驱动的小子样复杂系统剩余使用寿命预测方法综述及展望

针对小子样背景下复杂系统剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测的工程需求,结合复杂系统失效的时间数据、监测数据特点和RUL预测的不确定性问题,综述了小子样数据驱动的复杂系统RUL的预测方法。在小子样数据驱动的寿命预测技术中,数据的真实性、连续性和完整性等问题成为制约RUL预测准确度的重要因素。深入分析了基于失效时间数据、性能退化数据和多源数据融合的RUL预测技术的基本研究方法和发展动态,最后探讨了RUL预测领域未来可能的研究方向。     

基于时间序列迁移递归预测的未知工况下滚动轴承在线剩余寿命评估

深度迁移学习技术已经成功应用于跨工况的滚动轴承剩余寿命(remaining useful life,RUL)预测问题,但针对在线场景的RUL评估仍存在如下不足:在线工况存在漂移,无法确定同工况的历史数据,不能直接构建回归预测模型;在线目标轴承只有正常状态和早期故障数据,无法直接与离线轴承的快速退化期数据进行迁移学习.鉴于此,从时序退化信息迁移的角度提出一种面向未知工况的轴承在线RUL评估方法.首先,构建融合第三方退化信息的时间序列迁移递归预测模型,利用张量长短时记忆网络提取离线工况全寿命数据的单调性和趋势性等时序信息,并迁移到在线递归预测过程;然后,利用迁移成分分析对所预测的在线退化序列和已有离线序列进行公共特征空间适配,提取域无关特征,并构建支持向量机回归模型,实现在线轴承剩余寿命评估.在IEEE PHM Challenge 2012轴承数据集上的实验结果表明,所提出方法可在只有早期故障数据的情况下准确预测退化趋势,为未知工况下的轴承在线RUL评估提供一种有效的解决方案.     

考虑执行器性能退化的控制系统剩余寿命预测方法

工程控制系统在运行过程中,由于内外部应力的综合作用以及外部环境等的影响,其部件性能将逐渐退化,最终会导致控制系统失效.然而,由于控制系统中闭环反馈的作用,系统的输出残差可能仍在较小范围内变动,使得早期性能退化这种微小故障难以被检测到,呈现隐含退化的特点.现有文献中,针对此类在闭环反馈控制作用下部件存在隐含退化过程的控制系统剩余寿命（Remaining useful lifetime,RUL）预测问题,鲜有研究.为此,本文针对一类仅考虑执行器性能退化的确定闭环控制系统,提出一种基于解析模型的剩余寿命预测方法.该方法首先基于权值优选粒子滤波算法,利用系统的监测数据在线估计出执行器的隐含退化量,然后在每一个预测时刻通过蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo,MC）仿真计算得到合理的失效阈值,建立基于该失效阈值的系统失效判断准则,最后将隐含退化量的估计值代入退化模型中外推出剩余寿命分布.惯性平台稳定回路控制系统的仿真实验结果验证了该方法的可行性、有效性.     

基于PVC-CAE的轴承剩余寿命预测方法

轴承由于在制造、安装以及工况上的不同,退化过程有很大差异,在轴承的剩余使用寿命预测中,特征的轴承个体差异会直接影响到后续模型的训练难度和预测精度。为了在提取特征时减小轴承的个体差异性,提出了一种并行方差约束卷积自编码(parallel variance constrained convolutional auto-encode, PVC-CAE)的轴承退化特征提取模型。具体方法是在卷积自编码的框架内定义并行方差约束,通过改进卷积自编码的损失函数,搭建出PVC-CAE模型。PVC-CAE模型可以有效地降低同标签特征的轴承个体差异性,提升预测精度。预测流程为：先用PVC-CAE模型在频域信号内提取特征,再用LSTM网络预测。通过PRONOSTIA实验平台所获取的实验数据集以及西安交大轴承数据集对所提方法进行了验证,同时与另外三种方法进行对比,实验结果表明,所提方法在轴承剩余使用寿命预测中取得了较好的结果,并且在不同的工况下具有一定的泛化性。     

基于并行双向时间卷积网络和双向长短期记忆网络的轴承剩余使用寿命预测方法

在基于深度学习的轴承剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测方法中,时间卷积网络(TCN)忽略了振动数据中未来时间信息的重要性,长短期记忆网络(LSTM)难以有效地学习振动数据的长时间序列特征.针对以上问题,提出一种基于并行双向时间卷积网络(Bi-TCN)和双向长短期记忆网络(Bi-LSTM)的轴承RUL预测方法.首先,对多传感器数据进行归一化处理,并将每个传感器数据进行通道合并,实现多传感器数据的高效融合;然后,采用Bi-TCN和Bi-LSTM构建并行的双分支特征学习网络,其中Bi-TCN提取数据的双向长时间序列特征, Bi-LSTM提取数据的时间相关特征;同时,设计一种特征融合注意力机制,该机制分别计算Bi-TCN和Bi-LSTM的输出权重,以实现两种网络输出特征的自适应加权融合;最后,融合特征通过全连接层并输出轴承RUL的预测结果.利用西安交通大学轴承数据集和PHM 2012轴承数据集进行RUL预测实验,实验结果表明,与其他先进的预测方法相比,所提出方法可以准确预测更多类型轴承的RUL,同时具有更低的预测误差.     

基于深度时序特征迁移的轴承剩余寿命预测方法

不同工况下轴承退化数据分布不一致导致深度学习等方法对剩余寿命预测效果有限,而已有迁移学习预测方法未能充分挖掘不同工况退化序列的内在趋势性,为此,提出一种基于深度时序特征迁移的轴承剩余寿命预测方法.首先,提出一种深度时序特征融合的健康指标构建模型,利用时间卷积网络挖掘退化趋势的内在时序特征,得到源域多轴承的健康指标;然后...     

基于改进CNN-LSTM的飞控系统剩余寿命预测

数据驱动的剩余寿命（remaining useful life,RUL）预测是复杂系统健康管理的重点研究内容,然而数据集的缺乏制约了不同系统上RUL预测的研究。针对这一问题,以飞控系统为例,提出一种仿真模型和数据混合驱动的RUL预测方法。该方法通过模型仿真提供充足的故障数据,并结合改进CNN-LSTM网络实现高质量的故障信息提取。首先对系统及其故障模式建立仿真模型,利用蒙特卡罗方法生成随机故障时间序列并依次注入故障,根据仿真响应和失效阈值确定序列的寿命标签,即可生成包含多组随机序列的系统失效数据集;其次利用长短时记忆网络（long short-term memory,LSTM）提取系统状态参数时间序列的故障信息,结合一维卷积神经网络（1D-CNN）提取不同状态参数之间的关联特征,从而形成时序-空间相结合的剩余寿命预测网络。充分的实验结果证明了所提方法对不同系统均能帮助达到动态和准确的剩余寿命预测。     

基于卷积注意力长短时记忆网络的轴承寿命预测方法EI北大核心CSCD

传统的滚动轴承寿命预测方法缺乏明确的学习机制,无法有效识别不同时序特征之间的差异并突出重要特征,影响其预测精度.为克服上述缺点,本文提出了一种基于卷积注意力长短时记忆网络(CAN-LSTM)的剩余使用寿命预测模型.该模型主要由两部分组成:前端为卷积注意力网络(CAN),学习通道和时间维度中的深层故障特征,提高特征的表征能力;后端为改进LSTM网络,基于退化特征对轴承进行寿命预测.归一化健康指标至[0,1]区间内,得到相同的失效阈值;使用五点平滑法对预测结果进行处理,实现预测结果的输出;利用留一法对轴承全寿命试验数据进行验证,测试模型的准确性和适应性.试验结果表明:所提模型的平均均方根误差和平均绝对值误差比仅用CNN模型预测值低54.12%和59.05%,比仅用LSTM模型预测值低39.06%和43.42%,比卷积长短时记忆网络(CNN-LSTM)低20.41%和25.86%.     

大数据下数模联动的随机退化设备剩余寿命预测技术

面向大数据背景下随机退化设备剩余寿命(Remaining useful life, RUL)预测的现实需求, 结合随机退化设备监测大数据特点及剩余寿命预测不确定性量化这一核心问题, 深入分析了机理模型与数据混合驱动的剩余寿命预测技术、基于机器学习的剩余寿命预测技术、统计数据驱动的剩余寿命预测技术以及机器学习和统计数据驱动相结合的剩余寿命预测技术的基本研究思想和发展动态, 剖析了当前研究存在的局限性和共性难题. 针对存在的局限性和共性难题, 以多源传感监测大数据下剩余寿命预测问题为例, 提出了一种数模联动的大数据下随机退化设备剩余寿命预测解决思路, 并通过航空发动机多源监测数据初步验证了该思路的可行性和有效性. 最后, 借鉴数模联动思路, 综合考虑机器学习方法和统计数据驱动方法的优势, 紧紧扭住大数据背景下随机退化设备剩余寿命预测不确定性量化问题, 提出了大数据背景下深度学习与随机退化建模交互联动、监测大数据与剩余寿命及其预测不确定性映射机制、非理想大数据下的剩余寿命预测等亟待解决的关键科学问题.     

A novel deep convolutional neural network-bootstrap integrated method for RUL prediction of rolling bearing

In this study, a novel deep convolutional neural network-bootstrap-based integrated prognostic approach for the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of rolling bearing is developed. The proposed architecture includes two main parts: 1) a deep convolutional neural network–multilayer perceptron (i.e., DCNN–MLP) dual network is utilized to simultaneously extract informative representations hidden in both time series-based and image-based features and to predict the RUL of bearings, and 2) the proposed dual network is embedded into the bootstrap-based implementation framework to quantify the RUL prediction interval. Unlike other deep-learning-based prognostic approaches, the proposed DCNN-bootstrap integrated method has two innovative features: 1) both 1D time series-based and 2D image-based features of bearings, which can multi-dimensionally characterize the degradation of bearings, are comprehensively leveraged by the proposed dual network, and 2) the RUL prediction interval can be effectively quantified without relying on the bearing’s physical or statistical prior information based on bootstrap implementation paradigm. The proposed approach is experimentally validated with two case studies on rolling element bearings, and comparisons with other state-of-the-art techniques are also presented. Subsequently, our code will be open sourced.     

Remaining useful life prediction of bearing based on stacked autoencoder and recurrent neural network

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction play a crucial part in bearing maintenance, which directly affects the production efficiency and safety of equipment. Moreover, the accuracy of the prediction model is constrained by the feature extraction process and full life data of bearings. In this paper, the life prediction method of faulty rolling bearing with limited data is presented including degradation state model and RUL prediction model. In order to obtain health indication (HI) without human interference in the degradation state modeling stage, the bottleneck structure of Stacked Autoencoder (SAE) is utilized to fuse the four selected features into one HI using Intelligent Maintenance Systems (IMS) bearing dataset as training sample. In RUL prediction model, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is carried out to establish the model with Standard deviation (Std) input and HI training label. In order to solve the problem of large training error caused by insufficient data in the failure stage of bearing acceleration test, the third-order spline curve interpolation is utilized to enhance the data points. Through parameter analysis, the RMSE and MAE of the test set on the prediction model are 0.032582 and 0.024038, respectively. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the proposed method is further validated by dataset from Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) with different bearing fault degrees. The analysis indicates that the RUL prediction of bearing fault data is consistent with the size of artificial added faults, that is,the more severe the fault the shorter the time of remaining life. The results validate that the proposed method can effectively extract the bearing health state by incorporating feature fusion and establish accurately prediction model for bearing remaining life.     

A novel deep learning scheme for multi-condition remaining useful life prediction of rolling element bearings

The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of a rolling element bearing is important for more reasonable maintenance of machinery and equipment. Generally, the information of a failure can hardly be acquired in advance while running and the degradation process varies in terms of different faults. Thus, fault identification is indispensable for a multi-condition RUL prediction, where, however, the fault identification and RUL prediction are separated in most studies. A new hybrid scheme is proposed in this paper for the multi-condition RUL prediction of rolling element bearings. The proposed scheme contains both classification and regression, where the 2D-DCNN based classifier and predictors are built concerning typical fault conditions of a bearing. For the online prediction, the raw signals are spanned in the time-frequency domain and then transferred into images as the input of the scheme. The classifier is used to monitor the vibration of rolling bearings for online fault recognition and excite the corresponding predictor for RUL prediction once a fault is detected. The output from the predictor is amended by the proposed adaptive delay correction method as the final prediction results. A demonstration is performed based on the XJTU-SY datasets and the results are compared with those from the state-of-the-art methods, which proves the superiority of the proposed scheme in improving the accuracy and linearity of RUL prediction. The time cost of the proposed online prediction scheme is also investigated and the results indicate high time effectiveness.     

基于并联CNN-SE-Bi-LSTM的轴承剩余使用寿命预测

滚动轴承作为一种机械标准件,广泛应用于各类旋转机械设备,其健康状况对机器设备的正常运行至关重要,掌握其剩余使用寿命(RUL)可以更好地保证生产活动安全有效的进行.针对目前基于深度学习的机器RUL预测方法普遍存在:a)预测性能很大程度依赖手工特征设计;b)模型不能够充分提取数据中的有用特征;c)学习过程中没有明确考虑多传感器数据等缺点,提出了一种新的深度预测网络——并联多个带有压缩激励机制的卷积神经网络和双向长短期记忆网络集成网络(CNN-SE-Bi-LSTM),用于设备的RUL预测.在该预测网络中,不同传感器采集的监测数据直接作为预测网络的输入.然后,在改进的压缩激励卷积网络(CNN-SE-Net)提取空间特征的基础上进一步通过双向长短期记忆网络(Bi-LSTM)提取时序特征,建立起多个独立的可以自动从输入数据中学习高级表示的RU L预测模型分支.最后,将各独立分支学习到的特征通过全连接层并联获得最终的RU L预测模型.通过滚动轴承加速退化实验的数据,验证了所提网络的有效性并与现有的一些改进算法进行了对比实验.结果表明,面对原始多传感器数据,该算法能够自适应地提供准确的RU L预测结果,且预测表现优于现有一些预测方法.     

Remaining useful life prediction of bearings by a new reinforced memory GRU network

The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of bearings has great significance in the predictive maintenance of mechanical equipment. Owing to the difficulty of collecting abundant lifecycle datasets with correct labels, it is quite necessary to explore a prediction method with high precision and robustness in the case of small samples. It follows that a novel RUL prediction approach is put forward to overcome this problem. First, for reducing the man-made interference and the demand for expert knowledge, an unsupervised health indicator (HI) is constructed by Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD), which is named as KLD-based HI. Then because of the rapid forgetting of historical trend information in the current RNN-based prediction models, a novel reinforced memory gated recurrent unit (RMGRU) network is proposed by reusing the state information at the previous moment. According to the constructed KLD-based HI vector, the unknown HIs are successively predicted by RMGRU until the predicted HI value exceeds the failure threshold, and then RUL is calculated. The contrast experiment on IEEE 2012PHM bearing datasets shows the superiority of the bearing RUL prediction approach based on RMGRU over the classical time series forecasting methods. It can be concluded that this method has great application potential in bearing RUL prediction.     

基于改进SAE和双向LSTM的滚动轴承RUL预测方法

针对稀疏自动编码器(Sparse auto encoder, SAE)采用sigmoid激活函数容易造成梯度消失的问题, 用一种新的Tan函数替代原有的sigmoid函数; 针对SAE采用Kullback-Leibler (KL) 散度进行稀疏性约束在回归预测方面的局限性, 以dropout机制替代KL散度实现网络的稀疏性. 利用改进SAE对滚动轴承振动信号进行无监督深层特征自适应提取, 无需人工设计标签进行有监督微调. 同时, 考虑到滚动轴承剩余使用寿命(Remaining useful life, RUL)预测方法一般仅考虑过去信息而忽略未来信息, 引入双向长短时记忆网络(Bi-directional long short-term memory, Bi-LSTM)构建滚动轴承RUL的预测模型. 在2个轴承数据集上的实验结果均表明, 所提基于改进SAE和Bi-LSTM的滚动轴承RUL预测方法不仅可以提高模型的收敛速度而且具有较低的预测误差.     

基于无监督深度模型迁移的滚动轴承寿命预测方法

针对实际中某种工况滚动轴承带标签振动数据获取困难, 健康指标难以构建及寿命预测误差大的问题, 提出一种基于无监督深度模型迁移的滚动轴承剩余使用寿命(Remaining useful life, RUL)预测方法. 该方法首先对滚动轴承全寿命周期振动数据提取均方根(Root mean square, RMS)特征, 并引入新的自下而上(Bottom-up, BUP)时间序列分割算法将特征序列分割为正常期、退化期和衰退期3种状态; 对振动信号经快速傅里叶(Fast Fourier transform, FFT)变换后的幅值序列进行状态信息标记, 并将其输入到新增卷积层的全卷积神经网络(Full convolutional neural network, FCN)中, 提取深层特征, 得到预训练模型; 提出将预训练模型的梯度作为一种“特征”与传统预训练模型特征一起参与目标域网络训练过程, 从而得到状态识别模型; 利用状态概率估计法结合状态识别模型建立滚动轴承寿命预测模型. 实验验证所提方法无需构建健康指标, 可实现无监督条件下不同工况滚动轴承剩余寿命预测, 并获得较好的效果.