The forest products industry at an energy/climate crossroads

Transformational energy and climate policies are being debated worldwide that could have significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. Because woody biomass can produce alternative transportation fuels, low-carbon electricity, and numerous other “green” products in addition to traditional paper and lumber commodities, the future use of forest resources is highly uncertain. Using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), this paper assesses the future of the forest products industry under three possible U.S. policy scenarios: (1) a national renewable electricity standard, (2) a national policy of carbon constraints, and (3) incentives for industrial energy efficiency. In addition, we discuss how these policy scenarios might interface with the recently strengthened U.S. renewable fuels standards. The principal focus is on how forest products including residues might be utilized under different policy scenarios, and what such market shifts might mean for electricity and biomass prices, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results underscore the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and climate policies in order to moderate electricity and biomass price escalation while strengthening energy security and reducing CO₂ emissions.     

Modeling price-driven interactions between wood bioenergy and global wood product markets

Higher and more volatile liquid fossil fuel prices have had profound effects on international energy and wood product markets. Understanding this evolving economic and technological landscape requires economic models that capture the interconnections between energy markets and wood product markets, and can be used to forecast the impact of alternative policy and market incentives. The need for such an analytic framework is underscored by the consensus that efficiently produced wood bioenergy could provide many climate benefits compared to fossil-fuel intensive substitutes.A model is presented for analysis of how increased use of wood bioenergy, in the forms of fuelwood, cellulosic ethanol from woody biomass, and electricity produced from wood, might interact with global markets for wood products; liquid, solid, and gaseous fuels; and electricity produced from other sources. It links U.S. energy markets with wood product markets and endogenizes the demand for wood bioenergy with price-driven market clearing mechanisms. Projections made with the model point to a substantial increase in demand for woody cellulosic ethanol in the U.S. for the next 30 years if oil prices remain high.     

Sustainability of energy production and use in Iran

The issue of oil and gas policies in Iran is rather complex. In the present investigation, it is aimed to formulate plans for increasing the capacity of the country's energy production. Analysis of energy consumption pattern over last decades is indicative of inefficient usage. The low energy prices in Iran do not reflect economic costs. Further distortions exist in the tariff structures of most energy sources and in their relative prices. It is recognized that price reform is a key policy element for promotion of energy conservation and fuel substitution with renewable energies. Mitigation policies in the energy sector are crucial to Iran's overall policies. Emission of greenhouse gases can be reduced from 752,156 to 560,791 Gg CO₂ equivalents in 2010 by implementing the policies proposed for the energy sub-sectors. Enhancing energy efficiency, including combined cycle power generation, has proved to be the most economic option for greenhouse gases reduction in energy sector. Iran's energy consumption pattern is unsustainable and consumption oriented.     

Integration properties of disaggregated solar,geothermal and biomass energy consumption in the U.S.

This paper investigates the integration properties of disaggregated solar, geothermal and biomass energy consumption in the U.S. The analysis is performed for the 1989–2009 period and covers all sectors which use these types of energy, i.e., transportation, residence, industrial, electric power and commercial. The results suggest that there are differences in the order of integration depending on both the type of energy and the sector involved. Moreover, the inclusion of structural breaks traced from the regulatory changes for these energy types seem to affect the order of integration for each series.     

Consumers' perceptions regarding tradeoffs between food and fuel expenditures: A case study of U.S. and Belgian fuel users

Biofuels have been suggested as a sustainable alternative to fossil-based fuels, but when produced with inputs traditionally used as food and feed grain, the production of biofuels has contributed to price increases in the food sector. In the fall of 2006, a survey was administered to compare consumer perceptions regarding the tradeoff between renewable fuels and food in the United States (U.S.) (n = 242) and Belgium (n = 363). Results show that respondents in both countries prefer lower food prices to lower fuel prices (67.6% in the U.S. and 78.9% in Belgium). A logit model was estimated to determine which variables impacted whether a consumer favored policies that lower fuel prices at the cost of higher food prices. While the sample of Belgian respondents appeared to realize that lower fuel prices eventually had to come at the cost of higher food prices, the sample of U.S. respondents felt domestic agriculture could provide some low-cost, environmentally friendly alternatives with little impact on food prices. Accessible public transportation in Belgium acted as an important fuel saving strategy in that country and led respondents to emphasize food price decreases over fuel price decreases. Also, respondents with heightened awareness towards the environment recognized that the expansion of renewable fuels may need to come at the cost of higher food prices. These attitudes were similar in both countries. Finally, in both countries older respondents placed more importance on lower food prices than lower fuel prices.     

Top down strategy for renewable energy investment: Conceptual framework and implementation

Electricity market is undergoing a tremendous transformation throughout the world. A drastic reduction of carbon emission cannot be realized if renewable energy resources are not increased in share of generation mix. Currently, most of the traditional mechanisms, including regulatory policies, fiscal incentives and public financing, are initiated from and heavily relied on policymakers and governments. However, not only these schemes do not necessarily align with business interests of investors, but also the motivations for renewable energy developments are always initiated by governments. In order to realize the full potential of renewable energy investment, an innovative approach is necessary to motivate investors and lessen government expenditures.In this paper, we present a top down strategy for renewable energy investment. The proposed approach is a three-step framework. By applying the approach, renewable energy global market leaders and trends will be identified and analyzed that included: (1) economics and renewable energy policy, (2) specific renewable energy sectors that presents the most attractive investment opportunity, (3) and finally the most promising renewable energy investment vehicles for investors. Other stakeholders can also use the developed framework, such as consumers and policymakers, to make socio-economic decisions and assess renewable energy investments.     

The impact of state policy on deployment and cost of solar photovoltaic technology in the U.S.: A sector-specific empirical analysis

Using a panel database for 27 programs in 16 U.S. states over 1998–2009, we assess the impact of 12 state-level policies on the cost and deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies for two sectors defined by system sizes: residential (<10 kW) and commercial (10−100 kW). We first examine the impact of policies on the deployment of solar PV. We show that cash incentives increase the deployment of commercial systems. We also show that interconnection standards potentially promote the deployment of residential systems, whereas property tax incentives potentially foster the deployment of commercial systems. We next examine the impact of policies on the cost of solar PV, and show that the key policies have different effects on costs. The cost of residential systems declines faster if there are cash or property tax incentives in place, whereas the presence of interconnection standards potentially accelerates the decline in commercial system costs. Further, states with a renewable portfolio standard see residential system costs potentially declining slower than states without such a policy. As solar PV is at the brink of becoming cost competitive, our findings assist regulators in fine-tuning their set of support tools.     

德国新能源和可再生能源立法模式及其对我国的启示

在欧盟新能源和可再生能源立法的强力推动下,德国针对电力、交通和供热供冷等不同领域进行新能源和可再生能源立法,其中电力领域的立法进行得尤为深入;德国制定的2020年交通领域可再生能源利用目标为17%;2020年可再生能源在供热领域最终能源消费总额中的比例将达到14%。在出台各种法律的同时,德国还制定出新能源和可再生能源法规,典型例子是海上风电和生物质发电。德国新能源和可再生能源相关法律法规健全,其中电力和燃气产业、节能和能效以及气候变化三大领域的法律法规尤为重要。作为一个对化石能源有着巨大需求的国家,德国的二氧化碳减排进行得卓有成效,2007年较之于1990年,二氧化碳排放总量下降17.5%,人均二氧化碳排放量下降19%,一次能源供应和经济产出的碳排放强度分别下降10.9%和37.2%。同时还带动了欧盟的二氧化碳减排。相比于德国,我国新能源和可再生能源电力立法存在明显缺陷,一是缺乏深度,二是缺乏定力,三是缺乏耐心。德国新能源和可再生能源立法模式给予我国的启示是:能源立法应从小处做起,不应避重就轻,能源立法应一揽子化。     

我国交通运输行业能源消费和排放与典型国家的比较

交通运输行业作为能源消费增长最快的行业领域之一,对建设节约型社会战略的实施具有重要的影响。机动化水平的快速提高在消费大量燃油的同时也产生大量的污染排放物。本文依据相关统计资料,对比分析了中国与美国、日本在交通运输领域的能源消费与主要污染物排放水平,并分析了由于中国相关统计原因造成的能耗数据的差异。结合未来经济社会持续快速增长带动运输需求的快速持续增长的趋势,借鉴美国、日本等发达国家的发展趋势与经验教训,对未来中国交通运输业能源消费与减排进行了趋势性判断分析。     

Financing investments in renewable energy : the impacts of policy design

The costs of electric power projects utilizing renewable energy technologies (RETs) are highly sensitive to financing terms. Consequently, as the electricity industry is restructured and new renewables policies are created, it is important for policymakers to consider the impacts of renewables policy design on RET financing. This paper reviews the power plant financing process for renewable energy projects, estimates the impact of financing terms on levelized energy costs, and provides insights to policymakers on the important nexus between renewables policy design and financing. We review five case studies of renewable energy policies, and find that one of the key reasons that RET policies are not more effective is that project development and financing processes are frequently ignored or misunderstood when designing and implementing renewable energy policies. The case studies specifically show that policies that do not provide long-term stability or that have negative secondary impacts on investment decisions will increase financing costs, sometimes dramatically reducing the effectiveness of the program. Within U.S. electricity restructuring proceedings, new renewable energy policies are being created, and restructuring itself is changing the way RETs are financed. As these new policies are created and implemented, it is essential that policymakers acknowledge the financing difficulties faced by renewables developers and pay special attention to the impacts of renewables policy design on financing. As shown in this paper, a renewables policy that is carefully designed can reduce renewable energy costs dramatically by providing revenue certainty that will, in turn, reduce financing risk premiums.     

Renewable energy in the Lithuanian heating sector

The paper analyses the role of renewable energy sources (RES) in the Lithuanian heating sector and the existing support measures. RES consumption has been continuously growing in Lithuania. During the period of 2000–2009, RES used for heat production in the district heating sector increased more than 4 times. Wood and wood products have been the most widely used RES for heat production (RES-H). The lower prices were one of the main reasons which motivated district heating companies to switch fuel to biomass. At the same time subsidies, soft loans, EU Structural Funds for 2007–2013 and some fiscal measures, which are currently available for RES-H promotion, also have some impact on the increase of RES consumption. However, seeking to achieve a 23% national RES target, additional support measures are essential. A qualitative analysis based on the selected set of criteria and consultation with stakeholders showed that energy policy package for RES promotion in the Lithuanian heating sector could encompass the following measures: tax relieves (differentiated VAT and personal income tax breaks), subsidies, soft loans, standardization, support for research, development and demonstration. These measures are market-oriented and meet cost efficiency and low transaction costs criteria.     

Transforming shortcomings into opportunities: Can market incentives solve Lebanon's energy crisis?

Over the past decades Lebanon's energy sector has been largely ignored and this has led to high economic and environmental costs. The sector is characterized by electricity poverty, an expanding and mainly unregulated transport sector and a lack of energy savings spanning through all sectors of the economy. Recently, the Government of Lebanon has committed to increase the share of renewable energy to 10% of the total energy supply by 2013 and to 12% by the year 2020; it also aims at reducing energy consumption by 6% by the year 2013. This paper aims at contributing to the formulation of a more comprehensive energy strategy for Lebanon by analyzing the recent changes in policy direction and by recommending legal, regulatory and policy measures in order to transform current shortcomings into opportunities allowing the country to become a regional ‘success story’ in the deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency.     

Survey of Western U.S. electric utility resource plans

We review long-term electric utility plans representing ~90% of generation within the Western U.S. and Canadian provinces. We address what utility planners assume about future growth of electricity demand and supply; what types of risk they consider in their long-term resource planning; and the consistency in which they report resource planning-related data. The region is anticipated to grow by 2% annually by 2020 – before Demand Side Management. About two-thirds of the utilities that provided an annual energy forecast also reported energy efficiency savings projections; in aggregate, they anticipate an average 6.4% reduction in energy and 8.6% reduction in peak demand by 2020. New natural gas-fired and renewable generation will replace retiring coal plants. Although some utilities anticipate new coal-fired plants, most are planning for steady growth in renewable generation over the next two decades. Most planned solar capacity will come online before 2020, with most wind expansion after 2020. Fuel mix is expected to remain ~55% of total generation. Planners consider a wide range of risks but focus on future demand, fuel prices, and the possibility of GHG regulations. Data collection and reporting inconsistencies within and across electric utility resource plans lead to recommendations on policies to address this issue.     

欧盟可再生能源发展到2010年将达到12%

欧盟可再生能源发展到2010年将占到总能源消费量的12%。为了确保其目标的实现,他们将目标按行业分解到各成员国,并要求各成员国制定相应的政策和措施保证其目标的实现。本文分析了欧盟实现该目标的可能性,介绍了欧洲可再生能源产业界在欧盟目标的基础上发布的2020年产业发展目标。     

The outlook for renewable energy in Navarre: An economic profile

This paper describes the outlook and development of renewable energy in Navarre (Spain), which has become one of the leading regions in renewables over the last 10 years. This paper focuses its attention on the key features of the energy policy in Navarre, where there has emerged a dynamic enterprise sector. This sector has enormously increased its employment rates in the region. The success of renewable energy in Navarre is the result of the joint impact of decisive institutional support, industrial initiatives and consensus among social agents with regard to renewables. Tax incentives and local investment programs designed to break down the reluctance of local authorities and a campaign to obtain public support have, moreover, proven more efficient than the prior feed-in tariffs scheme, designed to develop the renewable energy sector and create international companies within it. The paper culminates in a detailed prognosis based on the SRN2003 survey of employment and installed power, which covers the majority of the firms operating in the Navarre renewables sector. Findings, however, suggest that the future of the sector in Navarre could be held back by the shortage of trained workers. This article might serve as a pertinent example for the deployment of renewables at regional level worldwide.     

Oil price uncertainty and U.S. employment growth

This paper studies the effects of oil price changes on U.S. aggregate and sectoral employment growth in the presence of time-varying oil price uncertainty. We estimate a bivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR model using U.S. monthly data of oil prices and employment growth for the period 1974 m2:2018 m11. Based on the results, we show that an increase in oil prices reduces total employment growth and that in most private sectors, but the public sector is largely unaffected. The effects on employment growth in various ”hub” sectors are also different. Furthermore, employment growths at both aggregate and disaggregate levels respond asymmetrically to positive and negative oil price shocks, which could possibly be attributed to oil price uncertainty. This asymmetric impact is more evident when the model is estimated on the entire sample than on the 1970s sample, implying that the role of oil price uncertainty in accounting for variations in employment growth can differ over time. These findings underline the empirical relevance of oil price uncertainty for the U.S. labor market dynamics.     

U.S. state policies for renewable energy: Context and effectiveness

Over the past decade, state policies on renewable energy have been on the rise in the U.S., providing states with various options for encouraging the generation of renewable electricity. Two promising policies, the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and the Mandatory Green Power Option (MGPO), have been implemented in many states but the evidence about their effectiveness is mixed. In this paper, we argue that recognizing the natural, social, and policy context under which MGPO and RPS are adopted is necessary in order to measure their true effectiveness. This is because the context rather than the policy might lead to positive outcomes and there is the possibility for sample bias. When controlling for the context in which the policies are implemented, we find that RPS has a negative impact on investments in renewable capacity. However, we find that investor-owned utilities seem to respond more positively to RPS mandates than publicly owned utilities. By contrast, MGPO appears to have a significant effect on installed renewable capacity for all utilities regardless of the context in which it is implemented.     

A review of energy in Rwanda

During the last two decades, Rwanda has experienced an energy crisis mostly due to lack of investment in the energy sector. With the growing of the population and increasing industrialization in urban areas, energy provided by existing hydro and thermal power plants has been increasingly scarce with high energy costs, and energy instability. Furthermore, as wood fuel is the most important source of energy in Rwanda, the enduring dependence on it and fossil fuel consumption as well, will continue to impact on the process of environmental degradation. Rwanda is rich with abundant renewable energy resources such as methane gas in Lake Kivu, solar, biomass, geothermal; and wind energy resource is currently being explored. Recently, the Government has given priority to the extension of its national electrical grid through development of hydro power generation projects, and to rural energy through development of alternative energy projects for rural areas where access to national grid is still difficult. This paper presents a review of existing energy resources and energy applications in Rwanda. Recent developments on renewable energy are also presented.     

Economic analysis of sector coupling business models: Application on green hydrogen use cases

Sector coupling will play a key role in the future energy system to realise greenhouse gas emission reductions. A major factor will be green hydrogen based on renewable energies to defossilise consumption sectors. Related business models of power to gas are not yet implemented on the market. However, given the urgency of the change, this is essential.This paper investigates hydrogen business models under current market conditions of high power prices, no existing market for green hydrogen and the given regulatory framework with no levies for green hydrogen production in the German market. For this purpose, an open-source business model evaluation tool for sector coupling, which enables a simple and generic evaluation of sector coupling business models including production and possible transportation infrastructure, is developed and applied. Furthermore, the impact of changes of the input parameters like power prices and the influence of regulatory changes on profitability are assessed.The results show that X-to-power business cases can be already profitable due to high power prices on the wholesale market. However, power-to-X business models like hydrogen production still have negative net present values and the net present value is worsened when infrastructure for hydrogen transportation is considered. Key parameters for the negative result are investment costs and low hydrogen prices. Nevertheless, it must be considered that higher hydrogen prices have a negative impact on the X-to-power business model. To allow for profitable business cases, the market conditions need to be adjusted to ensure sufficiently high prices for green hydrogen. Furthermore, subsidies on investment or operational and maintenance costs can support the integration of power-to-X into the market. Transportation infrastructure has a significant impact on profitability. Given these facts, it is necessary to create the required framework conditions to ensure the realisation of sector coupling.     

Distributed power generation: A case study of small scale PV power plant in Greece

In recent years, energy systems have been undergoing a development trend characterised by privatisation of the most important energy sectors (electricity and natural gas) that has turned former monopolies into free-market competitors. Furthermore, community awareness of environmental impact caused by large conventional power plants is growing, together with a greater interest in distributed-generation (DG) technologies based upon renewable energy sources (RES) and cogeneration. In this context, renewable energy technologies are emerging as potentially strong competitors for more widespread use. Despite the remarkable progress attained over the past decades, RES have not yet been fully integrated into the power sector. Some RES-technologies have already achieved a significant market share. The industry is now quite mature, although far from having developed its global potential.