Economic growth,energy conservation and emissions reduction: A comparative analysis based on panel data for 8 Asian-Pacific countries

This study was conducted to evaluate the causality between energy consumption, GDP growth and carbon emissions for eight Asia-Pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data. The results indicate that there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables. Additionally, causality from energy consumption to CO₂ emissions was observed generally, but there were some opposite relationships also. Parameter estimations of the panel data model indicate that there are great differences in the carbon emissions, the efficiencies of energy use, carbon emissions of unit GDP and unit energy consumption between developed and developing countries. The base carbon emissions, per capita energy consumption and efficiency of energy use in developing countries are far lower than in developed countries; however, the CO₂ emissions per unit of energy use is higher. Although developing countries may reduce their CO₂ emission per unit energy use, total energy consumption will rise rapidly with economic development. Thus, developing countries must determine how to undergo economic growth while conserving energy and reducing emissions. To respond to global climate change, it is necessary to develop innovative technology for energy use, transform the energy structure and conduct the clean development mechanism.     

Regional energy resource development and energy security under CO2 emission constraint in the greater Mekong sub-region countries (GMS)

The paper evaluates effects of energy resource development within the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) on energy supply mix, energy system cost, energy security and environment during 2000–2035. A MARKAL-based integrated energy system model of the five GMS countries was developed to examine benefits of regional energy resource development for meeting the energy demand of these countries. The study found that an unrestricted energy resource development and trade within the region would reduce the total-regional energy systems cost by 18% and would abate the total CO₂ emission by 5% as compared to the base case. All the five countries except Myanmar would benefit from the expansion of regional energy resource integration in terms of lower energy systems costs and better environmental qualities. An imposition of CO₂ emission reduction constraint by 5% on each of the study countries from that of the corresponding emissions under the unrestricted energy resource development in the GMS is found to improve energy security, reduce energy import and fossil fuels dependences and increase volume of power trade within the region. The total energy system cost under the joint CO₂ emission reduction strategy would be less costly than that under the individual emission targets set for each country.     

Significance of CO2-free hydrogen globally and for Japan using a long-term global energy system analysis

In this paper, the significance of CO₂-free hydrogen is discussed using a long-term global energy system. The energy demand–supply system including CO₂-free hydrogen was assumed, though there are still large uncertainties as to whether a global CO₂-free hydrogen energy system will be deployed. System analysis was conducted using the global and long-term intertemporal optimization energy model GRAPE under severe CO₂ emission constraints. Applied global CO₂ constraints for 2050 were a 50% reduction from 1990 levels. CO₂ constraints accounting for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in each region were also considered. A variety of energy resources and technologies were considered in this model. Hydrogen can be produced from low-grade coal or natural gas with CO₂ capture and electricity from renewable energy. The hydrogen CIF (cost, insurance, and freight) price for Japan was about 3.2 cents/MJ in 2030. Hydrogen demand technologies considered in this paper are hydrogen-fired power plants, direct combustion, combined heat and power (fuel cells, gas engines, and gas turbines), fuel cell vehicles, and hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles. The majority of CO₂-free hydrogen was deployed in the transportation sector. CO₂-free hydrogen was utilized in the power sector, where deployment of other zero emission technology has some constraints. From an economic viewpoint, CO₂-free hydrogen can reduce the global energy system cost. From the viewpoint of a localized region, such as Japan, deployment of CO₂-free hydrogen can improve energy security and environmental indicators.     

A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District,Shanghai, China

To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40–45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO₂ emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO₂ emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component of the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO₂ emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO₂ emissions of this scenario were 66.1 Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district.     

Grey forecasting model for CO2 emissions: A Taiwan study

Among the various greenhouse gases associated with climate change, CO₂ is the most frequently implicated in global warming. The latest data from Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) shows that the coal-fired power plant in Taichung, Taiwan emitted 39.7 million tons of CO₂ in 2007 – the highest of any power plant in the world. Based on statistics from Energy International Administration, the annual CO₂ emissions in Taiwan have increased 42% from 1997 until 2006. Taiwan has limited natural resources and relies heavily on imports to meet its energy needs, and the government must take serious measures control energy consumption to reduce CO₂ emissions. Because the latest data was from 2009, this study applied the grey forecasting model to estimate future CO₂ emissions in Taiwan from 2010 until 2012. Forecasts of CO₂ emissions in this study show that the average residual error of the GM(1,1) was below 10%. Overall, the GM(1,1) predicted further increases in CO₂ emissions over the next 3 years. Although Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations and is not bound by the Kyoto Protocol, the findings of this study provide a valuable reference with which the Taiwanese government could formulate measures to reduce CO₂ emissions by curbing the unnecessary the consumption of energy.     

Evaluation of energy saving potential in China's cement industry using the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model and the technology promotion policy analysis

Much of China's cement industry still uses outdated kilns and other inefficient technologies, which are obstacles to improving energy efficiency. Huge improvements in energy consumption intensity can be made by improving this technology. To evaluate the potential for energy-saving and CO₂ emissions reduction in China's cement industry between 2010 and 2020, a model was developed based on the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Three scenarios (S1, S2 and S3) were developed to describe future technology policy measures in relation to the development of the cement industry. Results show that scenario S3 would realize the potential for CO₂ emissions mitigation of 361.0 million tons, accounting for 25.24% of the predicted emissions, with an additional energy saving potential of 39.0 million tons of coal equivalent by 2020. Technology promotion and industrial structure adjustment are the main measures that can lead to energy savings. Structural adjustment is the most important approach to reduce the CO₂ emissions from the cement industry; the resulting potential for CO₂ emissions reduction will be increasingly large, even exceeding 50% after 2016.     

Analysis of the impact of electricity grid interconnection between Korea and Japan—Feasibility study for energy network in Northeast Asia

This study analyzes the impact of an electricity grid interconnection between Korea and Japan on their energy systems. Both countries seriously consider energy security as the most important policy issue because of a lack of domestic energy resources. In addition, public concern for the environment is recently rising up in response to the global warming. Electricity grid interconnection has strong potential to cope with such complicated problems cost-effectively. We have developed the interconnection model, which includes the electricity grid interconnection between the electricity sectors of Korea and Japan, considering both technological and economic efficiency. The result of the study reveals the significant cost-effectiveness of the interconnection, in particular, under stringent condition such as nuclear phase-out in Japan and CO₂ emission target in Korea and Japan. In the case that Japan's nuclear power plants will be phased out, the interconnection attains further cost reduction of constructing substitutive thermal power plants. On the other hand, when Korea and Japan set a joint CO₂ emission target, it achieves the emission target more efficiently than they reduce the emission individually.     

Energy conservation for international dry bulk carriers via vessel speed reduction

This study uses an activity-based method to investigate the fuel consumption and corresponding CO₂ emissions of Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize dry bulk carriers. The emission and energy reductions are estimated for speed reductions of 10%, 20%, and 30%. The CATCH (cost of averting a tonne of CO₂—eq heating) model is applied to evaluate the cost efficiency of speed reduction. Results show that speed reductions of 10%, 20%, and 30% reduce fuel consumption by 27.1%, 48.8%, and 60.3% and CO₂ emissions by 19%, 36%, and 51%, respectively. Speed reduction leads to emission reductions, with greater reductions for larger ships. CATCH values are positive, indicating that reducing speed increases cost. Line C3 of Capesize is used to determine the optimal ship number and operational speed under energy conservation. The minimum number of vessels in service is 9, with an average operational speed of 14.53 knots and one port call per week. If speed is reduced by 10%, 20%, and 30%, one, two, and four additional ships are needed, respectively.     

Comparison of fuel economies of high efficiency diesel and hydrogen engines powering a compact car with a flywheel based kinetic energy recovery systems

Coupling of small turbocharged high efficiency diesel engines with flywheel based kinetic energy recovery systems is the best option now available to reduce fuel energy usage and reduce green house gas (GHG) emissions. The paper describes engine and vehicle models to generate engine brake specific fuel consumption maps and compute vehicle fuel economies over driving cycles, and applies these models to evaluate the benefits of a H₂ICEs developed with the direct injection jet ignition engine concept to further reduce the fuel energy usage of a compact car equipped with a with a flywheel based kinetic energy recovery systems. The car equipped with a 1.2 L TDI Diesel engine and KERS consumes 25 g/km of fuel producing 79.2 g/km of CO₂ using 1.09 MJ/km of fuel energy. These CO₂ and fuel energy values are more than 10% better than those of today’s best hybrid electric vehicle. The car equipped with a 1.6 L DI-JI H₂ICE engine consumes 8.3 g/km of fuel, corresponding to only 0.99 MJ/km of fuel energy.     

Global overview of industrial energy intensity

Given the need to reduce the CO₂ emissions coming from the manufacturing sector, it is important, for planning purposes, to know which countries and which manufacturing sub-sectors have the greatest potential for reducing energy use. Using data from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the authors estimate trends in global decoupling of energy use and manufacturing value added, compare energy-use intensity in six country groups and estimate the potential for reducing energy use and CO₂ emissions under two scenarios and compare selected sub-sector energy intensity and estimate the potential for reducing energy use CO₂ emissions. The comparison of energy intensities across country groups and among countries suggests that there still remains significant potential to reduce energy use and associated CO₂ emissions. The analysis of four sub-sectors in developing and transition economies also shows similar but varied potential for reducing energy use and associated CO₂ emissions.     

Assessment of CO2 emissions and its reduction potential in the Korean petroleum refining industry using energy-environment models

We assessed potential future CO₂ reduction in the Korean petroleum refining industry by investigating five new technologies for energy savings and CO₂ mitigation using a hybrid SD-LEAP model: crude oil distillation units (CDU), vacuum distillation units (VDU), light gas-oil hydro-desulfurization units (LGO HDS), and the vacuum residue hydro-desulfurization (VR HDS) process. The current and future demand for refining industry products in Korea was estimated using the SD model. The required crude oil input amounts are expected to increase from 139 million tons in 2008 to 154 million tons in 2030 in the baseline scenario. The current and future productivity of the petroleum refining industry was predicted, and this prediction was substituted into the LEAP model which analyzed energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from the refining processes in the BAU scenario. We expect that new technology and alternative scenarios will reduce CO₂ emissions by 0.048% and 0.065% in the national and industrial sectors, respectively.     

India’s energy needs and low carbon options

India’s aspiration for economic growth has consequences for energy growth and CO₂ emissions. This paper examines India’s need for energy with 20 year perspectives. From an earlier paper by K. Parikh et al. (2009), demand scenario are examined from the supply perspectives ranging from coal, hydrocarbon, nuclear, hydrogen, hydro and other renewable etc. None of these are substantial and India will have to rely on imports. The need for energy has to be reduced by a drive for energy efficiency and renewable energy. Government programmes for the above are also commented upon. Though India’s CO₂ emissions are unlikely to grow very much due to energy scarcity and energy mix the article examines the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions and the associated costs involved in various options. It finds that 30% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2030 is feasible but would involve additional costs. The most promising option is to reduce energy demand by various measures to increase energy use efficiency in production and consumption.     

External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios

This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, and CO₂ from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24–55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9–26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%.     

Green energies and the environment

Globally, buildings are responsible for approximately 40% of the total world annual energy consumption. Most of this energy is for the provision of lighting, heating, cooling, and air conditioning. Increasing awareness of the environmental impact of CO₂ and NO_x emissions and CFCs triggered a renewed interest in environmentally friendly cooling, and heating technologies. Under the 1997 Montreal Protocol, governments agreed to phase out chemicals used as refrigerants that have the potential to destroy stratospheric ozone. It was therefore considered desirable to reduce energy consumption and decrease the rate of depletion of world energy reserves and pollution of the environment. This article discusses a comprehensive review of energy sources, environment and sustainable development. This includes all the renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency systems, energy conservation scenarios, energy savings and other mitigation measures necessary to reduce climate change.     

Indicators for industrial energy efficiency in India

India accounts for 4.5% of industrial energy use worldwide. This share is projected to increase as the economy expands rapidly. The level of industrial energy efficiency in India varies widely. Certain sectors, such as cement, are relatively efficient, while others, such as pulp and paper, are relatively inefficient. Future energy efficiency efforts should focus on direct reduced iron, pulp and paper and small-scale cement kilns because the potentials for improvement are important in both percentage and absolute terms. Under business as usual, industrial energy use is projected to rise faster than total final energy use. A strong focus on energy efficiency can reduce this growth, but CO₂ emissions will still rise substantially. If more substantial CO₂ emissions reductions are to be achieved then energy efficiency will need to be combined with measures that reduce the carbon intensity of the industrial fuel mix.     

Contribution to emission reduction of CO2 and SO2 by household biogas construction in rural China

Rural household biogas construction is a key program of renewable energy construction in China, which can partly help to reduce the problem of global warming.This article uses the international commonly used calculation of emission reduction to analyze the quantity of reduction in CO₂ and SO₂ emissions, which is resulting from the substitution of household biogas in place of traditional biomass energy and coal during the period from 1996 to 2003. The result shows that such substitution can reduce the discharge of CO₂ by 397.6–4193.9 thousand tons and SO₂ by 21.3–62.0 thousand tons annually. This article then predicts the amount of reduction in CO₂ and SO₂ emissions that would occur in 2010, 2020 and 2050 with the substitution of biogas energy instead of traditional energy sources in rural areas. All of these prove that rural biogas construction is an effective means of reducing the emission of greenhouse and other harmful gases into the atmosphere.     

Grey relation performance correlations among economics,energy use and carbon dioxide emission in Taiwan

This study explores the inter-relationships among economy, energy and CO₂ emissions of 37 industrial sectors in Taiwan in order to provide insight regarding sustainable development policy making. Grey relation analysis was used to analyse the productivity, aggregate energy consumption, and the use of fuel mix (electricity, coal, oil and gas) in relation to CO₂ emission changes. An innovative evaluative index system was devised to explore grey relation grades among economics, energy and environmental quality. Results indicate that a rapid increase in electricity generation during the past 10 years is the main reason for CO₂ emission increase in Taiwan. The largest CO₂ emitting sectors include iron and steel, transportation, petrochemical materials, commerce and other services. Therefore, it is important to reduce the energy intensity of these sectors by energy conservation, efficiency improvement and adjustment of industrial structure towards high value-added products and services. Economic growth for all industries has a more significant influence, than does total energy consumption, on CO₂ emission increase in Taiwan. It is also important to decouple the energy consumption and production to reduce the impacts of CO₂ on economic growth. Furthermore, most of the sectors examined had increased CO₂ emissions, except for machinery and road transportation. For high energy intensive and CO₂ intensive industries, governmental policies for CO₂ mitigation should be directed towards low carbon fuels as well as towards enhancement of the demand side management mechanism, without loss of the nation's competitiveness.     

The status of energy conservation in Taiwan's cement industry

The cement industry represents one of the most energy intensive sectors in Taiwan. Energy audits are the direct tools which are employed to help reduce energy consumption. The objectives of energy audits are to establish energy audit systems, provide on-site energy audit service and reduce production cost. This study summarized the energy savings implemented in Taiwan's cement industry; the data were obtained from the on-line Energy Declaration System in 2010. The total implemented energy savings amounted to 68,512 kilo liter of crude oil equivalent (KLOE). The energy audit group audited seven Taiwanese cement plants in 2011 and revealed an energy saving potential of 2571.6 MWh of electricity and 1002.8 KLOE of thermal energy. The total potential energy saving was 1708.5 KL of crude oil equivalent (KLOE), equivalent to a 4560 t reduction in CO₂ emissions, representing the annual CO₂ absorption capacity of a 122 ha forest plantation.     

The 2 °C scenario—A sustainable world energy perspective

A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO₂ emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 °C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO₂ emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%.     

Impacts of CO2 emission constraints on technology selection and energy resources for power generation in Bangladesh

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction target and carbon tax on future technologies selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector during 2005–2035. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future energy demand without importing energy. However, alternative policies on CO₂ emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon taxes directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based and clean renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the cumulative CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–20% and carbon tax of 2500 Taka/ton, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of 39–65% and 37%, respectively, compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 4.5–22.3% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon tax 2500 Taka/ton scenarios and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario.