Using biomass for climate change mitigation and oil use reduction

In this paper, we examine how an increased use of biomass could efficiently meet Swedish energy policy goals of reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and oil use. In particular, we examine the trade-offs inherent when biomass use is intended to pursue multiple objectives. We set up four scenarios in which up to 400 PJ/year of additional biomass is prioritised to reduce CO₂ emissions, reduce oil use, simultaneously reduce both CO₂ emission and oil use, or to produce ethanol to replace gasoline. Technologies analysed for using the biomass include the production of electricity, heat, and transport fuels, and also as construction materials and other products. We find that optimising biomass use for a single objective (either CO₂ emission reduction or oil use reduction) results in high fulfilment of that single objective (17.4 Tg C/year and 350 PJ oil/year, respectively), at a monetary cost of 130–330 million €/year, but with low fulfilment of the other objective. A careful selection of biomass uses for combined benefits results in reductions of 12.6 Tg C/year and 230 PJ oil/year (72% and 67%, respectively, of the reductions achieved in the scenarios with single objectives), with a monetary benefit of 45 million €/year. Prioritising for ethanol production gives the lowest CO₂ emissions reduction, intermediate oil use reduction, and the highest monetary cost.     

Future production and utilisation of biomass in Sweden: Potentials and CO2 mitigation

Swedish biomass production potential could be increased significantly if new production methods, such as optimised fertilisation, were to be used. Optimised fertilisation on 25% of Swedish forest land and the use of stem wood could almost double the biomass potential from forestry compared with no fertilisation, as both logging residues and large quantities of excess stem wood not needed for industrial purposes could be used for energy purposes. Together with energy crops and straw from agriculture, the total Swedish biomass potential would be about 230 TWh/yr or half the current Swedish energy supply if the demand for stem wood for building and industrial purposes were the same as today. The new production methods are assumed not to cause any significant negative impact on the local environment. The cost of utilising stem wood produced with optimised fertilisation for energy purposes has not been analysed and needs further investigation. Besides replacing fossil fuels and, thus, reducing current Swedish CO₂ emissions by about 65%, this amount of biomass is enough to produce electricity equivalent to 20% of current power production. Biomass-based electricity is produced preferably through co-generation using district heating systems in densely populated regions, and pulp industries in forest regions. Alcohols for transportation and stand-alone power production are preferably produced in less densely populated regions with excess biomass. A high intensity in biomass production would reduce biomass transportation demands. There are uncertainties regarding the future demand for stem wood for building and industrial purposes, the amount of arable land available for energy crop production and future yields. These factors will influence Swedish biomass potential and earlier estimates of the potential vary from 15 to 125 TWh/yr.     

The role of biomass in US industrial interfuel substitution

The role of biomass in US industrial interfuel substitution in the industrial sector has typically been analyzed using data for the four traditional fuels of coal, oil, electricity and natural gas. However, the use of biomass as an industrial fuel in the US has grown, and now exceeds that of coal. Using data from 1960 to 2011, interfuel substitution in the US industrial sector is modeled with a dynamic linear logit model which includes biomass alongside the other four traditional fuels. Adding biomass to the model reduces somewhat the estimated own-price and cross-price elasticities for the other four fuels, while revealing that biomass and natural gas are substitute fuels. This implies that previous studies excluding biomass may have overestimated the potential for interfuel substitution, giving policy makers an inaccurate impression of the ability of carbon taxes or other environmental regulation to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.     

The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics

Economics is an unavoidable decision-making tool in the field of climate policy. At the same time, traditional economics is being challenged both empirically and theoretically by scholars in different fields. Its non-neutrality in dealing with climate-related issues—which is illustrated by the controversy over the “no-regret potential”—would thus call for an opening of economics to insights from other disciplines. Within that context, we show that an evolutionary-inspired line of thought coupled with a systemic and historical perspective of technological change provides a very insightful alternative to traditional economics. More particularly, it follows from that framework that the picture of the climate challenge ahead looks very different from what traditional economic analyses would suggest. For instance, the lock-in process makes it unlikely that traditional cost-efficient measures (such as carbon taxation or tradable emission rights) will be sufficient to bring about the required radical changes in the field of energy as they fail to address structural barriers highlighted in our approach.     

Effects of biochemical composition on hydrogen production by biomass gasification

Gasification of cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin and three types of real biomass was conducted using an updraft fixed-bed reactor to investigate the effects of temperature (in the range of 920–1220 °C) on the yield and chemical composition of the produced syngas. The experimental results showed that the gasification products of cellulose and hemicellulose were similar to each other, but they were different from those of lignin; it is likely due to the difference in volatile compounds. Cellulose and hemicellulose can be gasified more rapidly producing more CO and CH₄ and less H₂ and CO₂ than lignin, and the real biomass fell in between. Biomass with more lignin produced more hydrogen than others. These differences were resulted from the relative amount of lignin, hemicellulose, and cellulose in the biomass. Linear superposition method was used to simulate the gasification characteristics of real biomass and it showed a certain linear correlation between the simulation and experimental data.     

The introduction and expansion of biomass use in Swedish district heating systems

District heating satisfies about 60% of the heat demand in Swedish buildings. Today, more than two thirds of the heat supply to the district heating systems is based on biomass and waste, and biomass alone accounts for about half of the heat supply. The purpose of this paper is to present the Swedish experiences of introducing and expanding the use of biomass in the district heating systems and to identify the main drivers behind this development. Our five research questions and the corresponding conclusions consider the driving forces from energy policy tools and local initiatives, the biomass prices, the established infrastructures in forestry and district heating, the technology paths for biomass conversion, and finally the future challenge of competing uses of biomass.     

A review on biomass based hydrogen production technologies

Hydrogen is a renewable energy carrier that is one of the most competent fuel options for the future. The majority of hydrogen is currently produced from fossil fuels and their derivatives. These technologies have a negative impact on the environment. Furthermore, these resources are rapidly diminishing. Recent research has focused on environmentally friendly and pollution-free alternatives to fossil fuels. The advancement of bio-hydrogen technology as a development of new sustainable and environmentally friendly energy technologies was examined in this paper. Key chemical derivatives of biomass such as alcohols, glycerol, methane-based reforming for hydrogen generation was briefly addressed. Biological techniques for producing hydrogen are an appealing and viable alternative. For bio-hydrogen production, these key biological processes, including fermentative, enzymatic, and biocatalyst, were also explored. This paper also looks at current developments in the generation of hydrogen from biomass. Pretreatment, reactor configuration, and elements of genetic engineering were also briefly covered. Bio-H₂ production has two major challenges: a poor yield of hydrogen and a high manufacturing cost. The cost, benefits, and drawbacks of different hydrogen generation techniques were depicted. Finally, this article discussed the promise of biohydrogen as a clean alternative, as well as the areas in which additional study is needed to make the hydrogen economy a reality.     

Update of indicators for climate change mitigation in Greece

This paper analyses the factors affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Greece, (i.e. the drivers of pressures on climate change), using environmental indicators related to energy, demographics and economic growth. The analysis is based on the data of 2008 and considers types of fuel and sectors. The Kaya identity is used to identify the relationship between drivers and pressures, using annual time series data of National GHG emissions, population, energy consumption and gross domestic product. The analysis shows that over the period 2000–2008, GHG emissions show a slight variation, but they are almost stabilised, with a total increase of 1.6%. Despite the economic growth over that period, this stabilisation may be considered as a combination of reductions in the energy intensity of GDP and the carbon intensity of energy, which are affected by improvements in energy efficiency and introduction of “cleaner” fuels, such as natural gas and renewables in the energy mixture of the country.     

The impact of climate change on the European energy system

Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented.Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe.There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts.     

Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields

There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a "food first" approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO(2) on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161?EJ?y(-1), depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply.     

The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change

Within 5 years, China's CO₂ emissions have nearly doubled, and China may already be the world's largest emitter of CO₂. Evidence suggests that exports could be a main cause for the rise in Chinese CO₂ emissions; however, no systematic study has analyzed this issue, especially over time. We find that in 2005, around one-third of Chinese emissions (1700 Mt CO₂) were due to production of exports, and this proportion has risen from 12% (230 Mt) in 1987 and only 21% (760 Mt) as recently as 2002. It is likely that consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. A majority of these emissions have largely escaped the scrutiny of arguments over “carbon leakage” due to the current, narrow definition of leakage. Climate policies which would make the developed world responsible for China's export emissions have both benefits and costs, and must be carefully designed to achieve political consensus and equity. Whoever is responsible for these emissions, China's rapidly expanding infrastructure and inefficient coal-powered electricity system need urgent attention.     

The economics of climate change and the theory of discounting

This paper confronts the theory of discounting with climate change economics. Standard discounting would give long-term damages a very low present value. On the other hand, low discount rates would imply more sacrifices for present generations, although future generations may be richer. And using multiple rates would lead to economic inefficiencies. The paper first shows that arguments favouring a low or zero discount rate in general are weak, even from an ethical point of view. It goes on by considering different arguments in favour of discount rates decreasing over time, and by recalling the argument that non-reproducible environmental assets should be given a value growing over time. Through the example of climate change, it finally shows that the latter argument not only implies that the costs of damages associated to climate change should not be underestimated, but also reinforce the legitimacy of using decreasing discount rates.     

Assessment of potential biomass energy production in China towards 2030 and 2050

The objective of this paper is to provide a more detailed picture of potential biomass energy production in the Chinese energy system towards 2030 and 2050. Biomass for bioenergy feedstocks comes from five sources, which are agricultural crop residues, forest residues and industrial wood waste, energy crops and woody crops, animal manure, and municipal solid waste. The potential biomass production is predicted based on the resource availability. In the process of identifying biomass resources production, assumptions are made regarding arable land, marginal land, crops yields, forest growth rate, and meat consumption and waste production. Four scenarios were designed to describe the potential biomass energy production to elaborate the role of biomass energy in the Chinese energy system in 2030. The assessment shows that under certain restrictions on land availability, the maximum potential biomass energy productions are estimated to be 18,833 and 24,901?PJ in 2030 and 2050.     

An integrated Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) Analysis of miscanthus biomass production in France: Socio-economic and climate change consequences

Several European policies have been designed over the last decades to address the challenge of climate change and several measures have been put in place to accelerate the development and deployment of cost-effective low carbon technologies. The domestic nature of the resource and its great potential availability in Europe make biomass conversion technologies relevant mitigation options to be considered. In this context, the project “Logistics for Energy Crops Biomass (LogistEC)” aims to develop new or improve technologies of biomass logistics chain. In this project, the sustainability of different types of biomass is analysed in terms of environmental, economic and social impacts, based on the supply chain of two existing plants. The objective of this paper is to present the main results obtained in the socio-economic analysis of the French case and its climate change consequences. The Input-Output Analysis (IOA) has been seen as the most appropriate method to estimate these impacts using a Multiregional Input-Output Table from the World Input-Output Database project. Socio-economic effects have been estimated in terms of additional economic activity, added value and job creation. By extending the IOA with environmental accounts, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have also been estimated. Additionally, the most stimulated sectors have been identified. Results highlight the importance of biomass at a national level.     

Interactions between energy security and climate change: A focus on developing countries

We briefly consider the tensions between climate change and energy security policy imperatives, and highlight some concepts that may bring additional clarity to decision-making at the nexus of the two areas. We focus on developing countries and use the case of the Medupi supercritical coal plant in South Africa. The justification for the plant's construction stemmed from an Integrated Resource Planning process informed by South Africa's national utility. Often, as in the case of South Africa, there are tensions not easily captured in quantitative algorithms between, inter alia, a lack of access to electricity by millions of people (and associated welfare losses) and greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation. It is difficult to identify any formal processes that have prioritised climate change considerations over those of energy access. Thus, it becomes imperative to have a clear understanding of the consequences of this reality when considering power system expansion. We find that the processes often employed do not provide an entirely satisfactory precedent for future planning analyses, and the justifications do not adequately reflect the complexity of the decision space. Finally, we highlight some options by which these tools might be enhanced in areas including explicit and formal consideration of risk.     

The impact of climate change on the electricity market: A review

Climate change will impact electricity markets through both electricity demand and supply. This paper reviews the research on this topic. Whereas there is much that remains unknown or uncertain, research over the last few years has significantly advanced our knowledge. In general, higher temperatures are expected to raise electricity demand for cooling, decrease demand for heating, and to reduce electricity production from thermal power plants. The effect of climate change on the supply of electricity from non-thermal sources shows great geographical variability due to differences in expected changes to temperature and precipitation. Whereas the research frontier has advanced significantly in the last few years, there still remains a significant need for more research in order to better understand the effects of climate change on the electricity market. Four significant gaps in the current research are regional studies of demand side impacts for Africa, Asia, the Caribbean and Latin America, the effects of extreme weather events on electricity generation, transmission and demand, changes to the adoption rate of air conditioning, and finally, our understanding of the sensitivity of thermal power supply to changes in air and water temperatures.     

Effort sharing in ambitious,global climate change mitigation scenarios

The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either ‐10%$‐10\%$ or ‐50%$‐50\%$ from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system.     

Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model

This paper analyzes the long-term relationships between hydropower generation and climate factors (precipitation), hydropower generation capacity (installed capacity of hydropower station) to quantify the vulnerability of renewable energy production in China for the case of hydropower generation. Furthermore, this study applies Grey forecasting model to forecast precipitation in different provinces, and then sets up different scenarios for precipitation based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios and results from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate projections for Impacts Studies) model. The most important result found in this research is the increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions and the main hydropower generation provinces of China to climate change. Other main empirical results reveal that the impacts of climate change on the supply of hydropower generation in China will be noteworthy for the society. Different scenarios have different effects on hydropower generation, of which A2 scenario (pessimistic, high emission) has the largest. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of every province are distinctly different, of which the Southwest part has the higher vulnerability than the average level while the central part lower.     

Energy substitution in cotton production in the USA

The paper investigates the nature and extent of the substitution of energy for other inputs in the production of cotton in the USA. The specific inputs considered, in addition to energy, are labour, nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, pesticides and water. The results show that input use is responsive to variations in own prices and that some limited substitution does occur between energy, labour and nitrogen fertilizer.     

Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy

Definitions of fossil fuel reserves and resources and assessed stock data are reviewed and clarified. Semantics explain a large stake of conflict between advocate and critical voices on peak oil. From a holistic sources–sinks perspective, limited carrying capacity of atmospheric sinks, not absolute scarcity in oil resources, will impose tight constraints on oil use. Eventually observed peaks in oil production in nearby years will result from politically imposed limits on carbon emissions, and not be caused by physical lack of oil resources. Peak-oil belief induces passive climate policy attitudes when suggesting carbon dioxide emissions will peak naturally linked to dwindling oil supplies. Active policies for reducing emissions and use of fossil fuels will also encompass higher energy end-use prices. Revenues obtained from higher levies on oil use can support financing energy efficiency and renewable energy options. But when oil producers charge the higher prices they can pump new oil for many decades, postponing peak oil to occur while extending carbon lock-in.