Analysis of the importance of structural change in non-energy intensive industry for prospective modelling: The French case

A large number of studies have been conducted on the contribution of technological progress and structural change to the evolution of aggregate energy intensity in the industrial sector. However, no analyses have been done to examine theses changes in the non-energy intensive industry in France. We analyzed their importance in French industry with respect to their energy intensity, energy costs, value added, labour and the diffusion of production sites by using data at the 3-digit level with 236 sectors. Using a new decomposition method that gives no residual, this paper attempted to examine, over 10 years from 1996 to 2005, the changes that occurred in an area that has been neglected in energy analysis. We found that structural change had an overwhelming effect on the decline of aggregate energy intensity. Furthermore, we found that the higher the level of sector disaggregation, the more significant the changes that can be attributed to structural change, due to the homogeneity of this industrial group. The results of our study show that it is important to take into account the effects of structural change in “bottom-up” modelling exercises so as to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting for policy-makers and scientists.     

Identifying energy inefficient industries vulnerable to trade dependence of energy sources

Korea has transformed itself from a developing country to an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member country and a donor for developing nations. It has ranked among the world’s top 10 energy-consuming countries. Its industrial sector depends heavily on the utilization of fossil fuels and consumes more than 45% of national energy expenditure. Plausible concerns about industrial energy inefficiency can upset the structural dependence of the whole Korean industry on the energy sector. Using Korea’s industrial input–output data from 2010 to 2012, this research conducts a simulation analysis on trade suspension resulting from shocks provided by each of the six energy industries. This study investigates the propagation of these shocks across 160 industries. We found that the petroleum, electricity, and town gas industries are the most influential energy industries in terms of diffusion of trade shocks to other industries, and the number of propagation steps of energy shocks decreases over time due to the industries’ unimproved energy inefficiency. Therefore, governments need to address this interdependence within energy sectors and between energy and non-energy industries, with integrated policies for energy efficiency and contingency plans.     

Understanding industrial energy use: Physical energy intensity changes in Indian manufacturing sector

This study develops and examines physical energy intensity indicators in five industrial sub-sectors—iron and steel, aluminum, textiles, paper, and cement—and investigates mitigation options for energy related CO₂ emissions (during 1991–2005). Decomposition analysis has been employed to separate the structural effect (share of different products in the sector) from pure intensity effect (efficiency increase through technical improvement) for each industry. The results show that the combined effect (considering both structural and intensity effects together) on both iron and steel and paper and pulp industries is negative while it is positive for aluminum and textiles. The intensity effect for all the industries, barring textiles, is negative showing improvement in energy efficiency; iron and steel in particular, has seen a decrease of 134 PJ in energy consumption owing to improvements in efficiency. However, energy intensity in textiles has risen by 47 PJ due to increased mechanization. Structural effect is positive in aluminum and iron and steel industries indicating a movement towards higher energy-intensive products. In the case of aluminum, positive structural effect dominates over negative intensive effect whereas negative intensive effect dominates iron and steel industry. The paper helps in designing policies for improving productivity and reduce energy consumption in India's manufacturing sector.     

Myth of energy competitiveness in energy producing countries : Comparative analysis between Indonesia and Japan

This paper examines the relative comparative advantage, focusing on energy prices, of an energy producing developing country (Indonesia) and a non-energy producing developed country (Japan). For energy producing developing countries, it is strategically important to increase the competitiveness of energy dependent industries, and encourage the development of value-added industries. Much work has been done on relative advantage analysis, but the effects of the energy price formation mechanisms on price competitiveness have not been analysed. In this paper a comprehensive approach, using production and cost functions and synchronized price formation by means of principal component analysis, is introduced.     

Analysis on energy intensive industries under Taiwan's climate change policy

This study addresses the planning and implementation of energy, industry, and carbon economy policies concerning the development of the Taiwan's energy intensive industries from perspective of climate change. As a newly industrialized country, Taiwan attaches greater importance to the development of green energy and low-carbon industries, in cooperation with global pressure for carbon reduction due to climate changes, through energy and industrial conferences. Thus, in the past year the Taiwanese government constructed four laws concerning energy and carbon reduction in order to drive the green energy industry; furthermore, it plans to reduce current carbon emission benchmarks. Nevertheless, statistical analysis found that in the last decade, energy intensive industries have presented structural unbalance regarding energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, energy intensity, contributions to the GDP, and product value. Industries in the industrial sector have high energy consumption, high carbon emissions, and increase total domestic consumption and carbon emissions, which have disproportionate contributions to industrial added value; nevertheless, the government continues to approve investments for such energy intensive industries, and results in continuous increases in energy consumption and carbon emissions. This contradictory phenomenon indicates that newly industrialized countries rely on a manufacturing economic structure, which is difficult to adjust and violates the trends of a global low-carbon economy. Hence, the government must examine and adjust such unbalanced industrial structures, where such adjustments are executed in a fair and just manner, and encourage the development of high value-added measures for low-carbon manufacturing and service sectors to become equal with competitors in a global economy.     

Retrospective and prospective decomposition analysis of Chinese manufacturing energy use and policy implications

AimsThe industrial sector dominates the China's total energy consumption, accounting for about 70% of energy use in 2010. Hence, this study aims to investigate the development path of China's industrial sector which will greatly affect future energy demand and dynamics of not only China, but the entire world.ScopeThis study analyzes energy use and the economic structure of the Chinese manufacturing sector. The retrospective (1995–2010) and prospective (2010–2020) decomposition analyses are conducted for manufacturing sectors in order to show how different factors (production growth, structural change, and energy intensity change) influenced industrial energy use trends in China over the last 15 years and how they will do so up to 2020.ConclusionsThe forward looking (prospective) decomposition analyses are conducted for three different scenarios. The scenario analysis indicates that if China wants to realize structural change in the manufacturing sector by shifting from energy-intensive and polluting industries to less energy-intensive industries, the value added average annual growth rates (AAGRs) to 2015 and 2020 should be more in line with those shown in scenario 3. The assumed value added AAGRs for scenario 3 are relatively realistic and are informed by possible growth that is foreseen for each subsector.     

我国高耗能产业出口对能源价值的影响分析

我国工业生产耗电量占全社会用电量的70%以上,而其中高耗能工业对电能消耗的影响最大。由于国内外市场需求的拉动等原因,近年来高耗能工业在我国得到了快速发展。在我国能源环境紧张、能源价格偏低的情况下,高耗能产品出口间接带走的电能对我国能源市场影响重大,本文对我国高耗能产业出口对能源价值的影响进行了定性与定量分析,在此基础上,提出了节能降耗的措施建议。     

Rebound and disinvestment effects in refined oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector

In this paper, we use an energy–economy–environment computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Scottish economy to examine the impacts of an exogenous increase in energy augmenting technological progress in the domestic commercial Transport sector on the supply and use of energy. We focus our analysis on Scottish refined oil, as the main type of energy input used in commercial transport activity. We find that a 5% increase in energy efficiency in the commercial Transport sector leads to rebound effects in the use of oil-based energy commodities in all time periods, in the target sector and at the economy-wide level. However, our results also suggest that such an efficiency improvement may cause a contraction in capacity in the Scottish refined oil supply sector. This ‘disinvestment effect’ acts as a constraint on the size of rebound effects. However, the magnitude of rebound effects and presence of the disinvestment effect in the simulations conducted here are sensitive to the specification of key elasticities of substitution in the nested production function for the target sector, particularly the substitutability of energy for non-energy intermediate inputs to production.     

Lost carbon emissions: the role of non-manufacturing “other industries” and refining in industrial energy use and carbon emissions in IEA countries

We present a review of trends in energy use and output in branches of industry not often studied in detail: petroleum refining and what we call the other industries — agriculture, mining, and construction. From a sample of IEA countries we analyze eight with the most complete data from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s. We carry out a decomposition analysis of changes in energy use and carbon emissions in the “other industries” sector. We also review briefly the impact of including refining in the evolution of manufacturing energy use, usually studied without refining. Despite many data problems, we present our results as a way of enticing others to study these important “lost” sectors more carefully. We have five basic findings. First, “other industries” tends to be a minor consumer of energy in many countries, but in some, particularly Denmark, the US, and Australia, mining or agriculture can be a major sector too large to be overlooked. Second, refining is an extremely energy intensive industry which despite a relatively low share of value added consumes as much as 20% of final energy use in manufacturing. Third, as a result of a slower decline in the carbon-intensity of these industries vis-à-vis the manufacturing industries, their share of industrial emissions has been rising. Fourth, for other industries variation in per capita output plays a relatively small role in differentiating per capita carbon emissions compared to the impact of subsectoral energy intensities. Finally, including this energy in CO₂ calculations has little impact on overall trends, but does change the magnitude of emissions in most countries significantly. Clearly, these industries provide important opportunities for searching for carbon emissions reductions.     

The measurement of the energy intensity of manufacturing industries: a principal components analysis

Energy intensity is the ratio of energy use to output. Most industries deal with several energy sources and outputs. This leads to the usual difficulties of aggregating heterogeneous inputs and outputs. We apply principal components analysis to assess the information derived from six energy intensity indicators. We use two measures of total energy use (thermal and economic) and three measures of industry output (value added, value of production, and value of shipments). The data come from manufacturing industries in Québec, Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia from 1976 to 1996. We find that the variation of the six energy intensity indicators that is accounted for by the first principal component is quite large. However, depending on how variables are measured, there may be significant differences in the assessment of the evolution of energy intensity for some industries. There are no particular patterns in this respect. This makes difficult the identification of benchmarks that could be used to assess future performance.     

Energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in Swedish manufacturing industries

This paper analyses the trends in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions as a result of energy efficiency improvements in Swedish manufacturing industries between 1993 and 2008. Using data at the two-digit level, the performance of this sector is studied in terms of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, energy efficiency measured as energy intensity, value of production, fuel sources, energy prices and energy taxes. It was found that energy consumption, energy intensity and CO₂ emission intensity, measured as production values, have decreased significantly in the Swedish manufacturing industries during the period studied. The results of the decomposition analysis show that output growth has not required higher energy consumption, leading to a reduction in both energy and CO₂ emission intensities. The role of structural changes has been minor, and the trends of energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions have been similar during the sample period. A stochastic frontier model was used to determine possible factors that may have influenced these trends. The results demonstrate that high energy prices, energy taxes, investments and electricity consumption have influenced the reduction of energy and CO₂ emission intensities, indicating that Sweden has applied an adequate and effective energy policy. The study confirms that it is possible to achieve economic growth and sustainable development whilst also reducing the pressure on resources and energy consumption and promoting the shift towards a low-carbon economy.     

Analysing energy intensity trends and decoupling of growth from energy use in Indian manufacturing industries during 1973–1974 to 2011–2012

This paper has two research objectives: first, it derives and analyses energy intensity trends for seven energy intensive manufacturing industries and the aggregate manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973–1974 to 2011–2012 and compares the same with best practice benchmarks. Second, based on Index Decomposition Analysis, it studies the extent to which the energy efficiency has contributed in the decoupling of industrial activity growth from growth in energy use. The study finds faster decline in energy intensity in all the seven industries during the recent years (1998–1999 to 2011–2012). Aluminium, cement and fertilizer industries are found to operate close to the global best-practice energy intensities with transformational changes in process technology. Iron and steel and pulp and paper are found to be lagging behind with only incremental transformation in technology in place. The decomposition results show that activity growth is the major driver of growth in energy demand with marginal impact coming from structural change. However, declining energy intensity has been able to neutralize a major portion of the growing energy demand resulting in decoupling trends, especially in recent years, with more energy efficiency-related voluntary and mandatory policies in place).     

Estimates of energy and non-energy elasticities in selected Asian manufacturing sectors: Policy implications

This paper presents the results of a study of the demand elasticities for energy and non-energy inputs in the food processing and textile industries in Bangladesh, the Philippines and Thailand. Estimates of substitution elasticities in production were derived by fitting data to a translog cost function for the period 1970–1980 for Bangladesh, 1970–1978 for the Philippines, and 1974–1977 for Thailand. The results varied according to the industries studied and across countries. They were compared with those of several developing and industrialized countries, and substitutability among inputs was found to be greater in the manufacturing sector of the developing countries studies than in those of industrialized countries. The generally high elasticities between labour and energy have implications for relative input pricing and use in developing countries.     

Tracking industrial energy efficiency trends using index decomposition analysis

Index decomposition analysis (IDA) has been widely used to track economy-wide and sectoral energy efficiency trends. An integral part of this application is identifying the drivers of energy use for the energy consuming sector studied. In the case of industry, a monetary activity indicator such as value added is often taken as the driver. With the availability of physical production data for some industry subsectors, such as in tonnes or cubic meters, effort has been made by researchers to incorporate physical activity indicators in order to produce results that can better capture energy efficiency trends. We review and consolidate two different approaches to incorporating physical activity indicators in industrial energy studies using IDA. Based on their underlying concept, they are referred to as the intensity refactorization (IR) approach and the activity revaluation (AR) approach. We refine the AR approach, and compare the AR, IR, and the conventional monetary-based IDA approaches. Numerical examples and recommendations are presented.     

The threshold effects of energy efficiency on the elasticity of substitution between energy and non-energy factors

Considerable efforts have been made to estimate the relationship between energy and non-energy inputs in the production process. However, it remains controversial whether energy and non-energy inputs are complements or substitutes. Empirical analysis is conflicting on this issue. This study seeks to explore an alternative way to explain these conflicting results by examining the issue from the perspective of energy efficiency. This study is based on time series data for capital, labor, and energy from 28 Chinese provinces, covering 1985 to 2012. The results show that capital and energy are substitutes in all of the provinces, whereas labor and energy are complements in most of the provinces. Using the threshold effect model, we discover evidence of a threshold point based on the amount of energy efficiency activity in a province. This point separates the substitution behavior of provinces between energy and non-energy inputs. Low-energy efficiency provinces do not substitute as readily as high-energy efficiency provinces. The findings imply that the energy-saving technologies should be applied in provinces with comparatively higher energy intensity because they have more energy conservation potential.     

A framework for evaluating the socioeconomic impacts of commercializing new energy technologies with an application to the on-site fuel cell energy system

In this paper, we present a general framework for assessing the societal impacts of new technologies. Such impacts can be broadly classified as economic development impacts, environmental impacts, and “other” societal impacts. We discuss the steps involved in a public sector cost-benefit analysis, starting with impact identification, and then proceeding to impact analysis, impact valuation, and ultimately to the determination of the net public sector benefits of the energy technology under study. This process is illustrated by applying it to the assessment of the dollar value of net potential benefits likely to accure to the public sector from commercialization of the on-site fuel energy system. Our analysis indicates that the potential benefits from dispersed deployment of the fuel cell make it a desirable source of energy, given the national energy priorities. Commercialization will result in substantial savings to consumers, in more efficient utilization of the nation's energy and non-energy resources, and in an ameliorative effect on the environment.     

Dealing with barriers to energy efficiency and SMEs: Some empirical evidences

This paper aims at providing an identification and an analysis of the most relevant barriers to energy efficiency that limit a widespread implementation of the Best Available Technologies and Practices (BAT/Ps) through the investigation of 128 non-energy intensive manufacturing Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in Northern Italy. The study, starting from the existing literature, performs an investigation of the operational difficulties occurring when it has been decided to undertake the process of investing resources in energy efficiency interventions. The most perceived barriers have been analyzed with respect to several important characteristics (among others, sector and firm’s size). This examination shows also that very much attention should be paid to avoid bundling together SMEs of different sizes and sectors, since different behaviors with respect to the perception of the barriers can be observed. The analysis of the sample presents some interesting trends considering the perception of the barriers with respect to previous experience of the enterprises on energy efficiency. The paper also explores, through a preliminary analysis, the correlations among questions in order to understand the dynamics and the possible effects of a given barrier with respect to others. Several suggestions for future research in this important area have been provided.     

The additional benefits of energy efficiency investments—a systematic literature review and a framework for categorisation

Investments in industrial energy efficiency are essential for meeting future energy needs. Nevertheless, the industrial sector’s current efforts in energy efficiency investments are insufficient. Additional benefits of energy efficiency investments have been suggested to improve the financial attractiveness of energy efficiency investments. Yet, previous research indicates that not all benefits are included when investment opportunities are evaluated, leading to an underestimation of what a firm will gain from the investment. Additionally, previous research lacks conceptual frameworks for describing these additional benefits at an early stage in the investment process. Moreover, various benefit terms are found in currently existing research, but there are a lack of definitions and distinctions attributed to these terms. Therefore, this paper provides a systematic review on the benefit terms of energy efficiency investments, establishes non-energy benefits as the term most relevant for such investments and provides a new definition of the concept. Further, a new framework for categorising non-energy benefits to enable them to be included during the investment process is developed, in which the level of quantifiability and time frame of the non-energy benefits are taken into account. Including non-energy benefits in the investment process can make energy efficiency investments more attractive and increase their priority against other investments. Moreover, non-energy benefits can reinforce drivers as well as counterbalance known barriers to energy efficiency investments. Acknowledging non-energy benefits can thus contribute to an increased adoption level for energy efficiency investments.     

Trends in passenger transport energy use in South Korea

Having a clear understanding of transport energy use trends is crucial to identifying opportunities and challenges for efficient energy use for the transport sector. To this date, however, no detailed analysis has been conducted with regard to rapidly growing passenger transport energy use in South Korea. Using bottom-up data developed from a variety of recent sources, we described the trends of transport activity, energy use, and CO₂ emissions from South Korea’s transport sector since 1986 with a particular focus on its passenger transport. By decomposing the trends in passenger transport energy use into activity, modal structure, and energy intensity, we showed that while travel activity has been the major driver of the increase in passenger transport energy use in South Korea, the increase was to some extent offset by the recent favorable structural shift toward bus travel and away from car travel. We also demonstrated that while bus travel has become less energy intensive since the Asian Financial Crisis, car travel has become increasingly energy intensive.     

Information spillover dynamics of the energy futures market sector: A novel common factor approach

We investigate sector level information spillovers from energy to other futures market sectors using a novel conditionally heteroscedastic common factor (CHCF). CHCF represents common trends of macroeconomic influences on futures markets. We find that energy sector has the highest degree of commonality compared to other sectors. Conditional correlations between energy and non-energy sectors are highly persistent. The volatility spillover from the energy sector is prominent compared with mean and extreme market risk spillovers. Extreme risk spillovers from the energy to other sectors have an asymmetric effect. Shocks to energy futures have a significant potential impact on other markets during crises.