多Agent自动协商的公平性研究

为了能够快速、高效地进行Agent协商,构建一个优化的多Agent协商模型。在这个模型的基础上,提出了一个基于协商各方公平性的协商学习算法。算法采用基于满意度的思想评估协商对手的提议,根据对方Agent协商历史及本次协商交互信息,通过在线学习机制预测对方Agent协商策略,动态得出协商妥协度并向对方提出还价提议。最后,通过买卖协商仿真实验验证了该算法的收敛性,表明基于该算法的模型工作的高效性、公平性。     

An integrated QFD and FMEA approach to identify risky components of products

Identifying risk components is crucial to improve product quality. Failure mode and effects analysis as a useful risk assessment method has become a prevalent application in product design. However, the critical data, which contain failure causality relationships (FCRs) between failure modes, importance correlations among risk factors, and customer requirements of the product component, are not considered. This study develops an integrated approach for identifying risky components considering customer requirements and FCRs. First, a quality function deployment is established to characterize the customer requirements under fuzzy assessment semantics. Second, the FCRs between and within the product components are characterized by a directed network model. In this network, the failure modes are modelled as vertices, and the causality relationships between the failure modes are modelled as directed edges. The values of the directed edges are characterized by weighted risk priority numbers, and the weight of risk factors is optimized by a nonlinear programming model. Then, the interactive relationships among failure modes between and within product components are characterized by the internal failure effect and external failure effect. Finally, a real-world case application of wheel loader is conducted to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of the proposed approach. The results have shown that the proposed method is more effective in identifying risk components.     

Trends in computer use in collective bargaining

A survey of union and management negotiators was conducted to characterize the use of computers and other information technology (IT) in collective bargaining activities. Software use, data sources, and attitudes toward the use of computers by both types of negotiators were examined and compared. Results suggest that while, computer use is extensive among both labor and management negotiators, programs in use are generally limited to spreadsheets and database management systems. Negotiators tend to use computers primarily to generate contract packages and conduct cost-benefit analyses. Concerns regarding Information used in decision-making are consistent with those posed in the information systems literature.     

The impact of media on how positive,negative, and neutral communicated affect influence unilateral concessions during negotiations

In the online environment, audio and instant messaging (IM) media are quite commonly used by people to communicate with each other and make offers as they negotiate. While we know much about how IM and audio differ, we know very little about how offers that are favorable to the recipient (termed unilateral concessions) are affected by what and how people communicate over these media. The purpose of this study is twofold – (1) to examine how such concessions are influenced by communication that is either neutral, or positive, or negative in affect; and (2) to determine how the use of IM, relative to the use of audio, influences the effects of these types of communication on unilateral concessions. We develop a research model based on prosocial theory, which suggests that negotiators using audio are predisposed to interpret their partners’ motivations and behaviors in a positive (prosocial) light while negotiators using IM are predisposed to interpret their partners’ motivations and behaviors in a negative (competitive) light. We manipulate the use of IM and audio in anexperiment designed to test predictions based on this theory. Our work provides theoretical and empirical support for the idea that communications other than concessions (such as positive, neutral, and negative affect) can lead to more or less self-sacrifice depending on the medium employed, and thereby motivate negotiators to make greater or fewer unilateral concessions. Specifically, we found that (1) positive affect comments can increase unilateral concession independent of the medium used by negotiators; (2) neutral affect comments can increase unilateral concession when negotiators use audio, but have little impact when they use IM; and (3) negative affect comments can decrease unilateral concession when negotiators use audio, but can increase unilateral concession when they use IM. These results provide insights to researchers and practical guidance for negotiators.     

基于模糊的电子商务谈判模型及其仿真

主要是从模糊的角度来讨论谈判者对对方报价的接受度,采用隶属值来表示这个接受度.考虑了不同的谈判条款对谈判者的影响权重不同,采用组合的方法来考虑多条款谈判中的让步问题,建立并应用模型解决了一个电子商务谈判的实例,并且用Swarm仿真对此实例进行了仿真研究.结果表明,此模型比传统的谈判模型更加符合现实谈判.     

An interval 2-Tuple linguistic Fine-Kinney model for risk analysis based on extended ORESTE method with cumulative prospect theory

The risk assessment is one of the most significant procedures for identifying, preventing, and controlling Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks. One of many kinds of techniques for OHS risk assessment is based on the Fine-Kinney model. Most of the Fine-Kinney-based risk assessment approaches can consider the relative importance degree of risk parameters. Nevertheless, the current Fine-Kinney-based risk assessment approaches do not have abilities to capture the reference dependence effects and detailed relationships among hazards. In addition, these approaches overlook the influence of the deviation of risk evaluation information. To overcome these limitations, in this paper, an improved Fine-Kinney model is proposed for OHS risk assessment by integrating the weighted power average (WPA) operator, ORESTE (Organísation, rangement et Synthèse de données relarionnelles (in French)) method, and cumulative prospect theory. First, the interval 2-Tuple linguistic variables are adopted to transform linguistic risk information into quantitative risk rating information. Then, an extended WPA operator is proposed to fuse the risk evaluation information from decision-makers, in which an optimization model is constructed to determine the weights of decision-makers. Next, an extended ORESTE method based on cumulative prospect theory and interval 2-Tuple linguistic variables is incorporated into the Fine-Kinney model to prioritize OHS risk. After that, the OHS risk assessment of the automobile components manufacturing process is presented to test the applicability and rationality of the improved Fine-Kinney model. After that, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to further illustrate the proposed model. Finally, the comparative analyses between the proposed risk assessment approach and other Fine-Kinney models are led to illustrating its effectiveness and advantages.     

Risk assessment model selection in construction industry

Construction industry faces a lot of inherent uncertainties and issues. As this industry is plagued by risk, risk management is an important part of the decision-making process of these companies.Risk assessment is the critical procedure of risk management. Despite many scholars and practitioners recognizing the risk assessment models in projects, insufficient attention has been paid by researchers to select the suitable risk assessment model. In general, many factors affect this problem which adheres to uncertain and imprecise data and usually several people are involved in the selection process. Using the fuzzy TOPSIS method, this study provides a rational and systematic process for developing the best model under each of the selection criteria. Decision criteria are obtained from the nominal group technique (NGT). The proposed method can discriminate successfully and clearly among risk assessment methods. The proposed approach is demonstrated using a real case involving an Iranian construction corporation.     

A methodology for applying students' interactive task performance scores from a multimedia-based performance assessment in a Bayesian Network

Computer-based simulations are increasingly being used in educational assessment. In most cases, the simulation-based assessment (SBA) is used for formative assessment, which can be defined as assessment for learning, but as research on the topic continues to grow, possibilities for summative assessment, which can be defined as assessment of learning, are also emerging. The current study contributes to research on the latter category of assessment. In this article, we present a methodology for scoring the interactive and complex behavior of students in a specific type of SBA, namely, a Multimedia-based Performance Assessment (MBPA), which is used for a summative assessment purpose. The MBPA is used to assess the knowledge, skills, and abilities of confined space guard (CSG) students. A CSG supervises operations that are carried out in a confined space (e.g., a tank or silo). We address two specific challenges in this article: the evidence identification challenge (i.e., scoring interactive task performance), and the evidence accumulation challenge (i.e., accumulating scores in a psychometric model). Using expert ratings on the essence and difficulty of actions in the MBPA, we answer the first challenge by demonstrating that interactive task performance in MBPA can be scored. Furthermore, we answer the second challenge by recoding the expert ratings in conditional probability tables that can be used in a Bayesian Network (a psychometric model for reasoning under uncertainty and complexity). Finally, we validate and illustrate the presented methodology through the analysis of the response data of 57 confined space guard students who performed in the MBPA.     

Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the nations of the world have pledged to limit warming to no more than 2 °C above preindustrial levels. However, negotiators and policymakers lack the capability to assess the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction proposals offered by the parties on warming and the climate. The climate is a complex dynamical system driven by multiple feedback processes, accumulations, time delays and nonlinearities, but research shows poor understanding of these processes is widespread, even among highly educated people with strong technical backgrounds. Existing climate models are opaque to policymakers and too slow to be effective either in the fast-paced context of policy making or as learning environments to help improve people's understanding of climate dynamics. Here we describe C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support), a transparent, intuitive policy simulation model that provides policymakers, negotiators, educators, businesses, the media, and the public with the ability to explore, for themselves, the likely consequences of GHG emissions policies. The model runs on an ordinary laptop in seconds, offers an intuitive interface and has been carefully grounded in the best available science. We describe the need for such tools, the structure of the model, and calibration to climate data and state of the art general circulation models. We also describe how C-ROADS is being used by officials and policymakers in key UNFCCC parties, including the United States, China and the United Nations.     

基于累积效应的网络脆弱性扩散分析方法

网络脆弱性评估是一种主动防范技术,意在攻击发生之前对安全态势进行分析进而制定防御措施,但传统的定量分析模型不能对实体间动态交互关系有很好的展现,而且大都不能得出风险扩散的全局化结果。将脆弱性扩散过程类比于社会网络中影响力传播过程,提出了基于累积效应的网络脆弱性扩散分析方法,定义的脆弱性扩散分析模型给出了细粒度级的主体关系结构,利用攻击效果累积特性提出的分析算法可以更准确地刻画脆弱性扩散规则,保证更好的影响范围。最后对该模型和算法进行了实例验证,在模型描述简洁性、分析结果准确性、安全建议合理性等方面的横向比较分析,验证了模型在评估结果直观性和制定成本最小安全措施等方面的优势。     

Toward an integrated model for designing assessment systems: An analysis of the current status of computer-based assessments in science

Drawing upon an integrated model proposed by Bennett and Bejar (1998), this review study examined how 66 computer-based science assessments (CBSAs) in basic science and medicine took advantage of advanced technologies. The model regarded a CBSA as an integrated system, included several assessment components (e.g., assessment purpose, measured construct, test and task design, examinee interface, and scoring procedure), and emphasized the interplay among these components. Accordingly, this study systematically analyzed the item presentations of interactive multimedia, the constructs measured, the response formats in formative and summative assessments, the scoring procedures, the adaptive test activities administrated based on the algorithms related to the item response theory (IRT) and other rules beyond IRT, and the strategies for the automatic provision of informative hints and feedbacks in the CBSAs. Our analysis revealed that although only 19 out of 66 assessments took advantage of dynamic and interactive media for item presentations, CBSAs with these media could measure integrated understanding of science phenomena and complex problem-solving skills. However, we also found that limitations in automated scoring may lead to infrequent use of the automated provision of hints and feedbacks with open-ended and extended responses. These findings suggest the interrelatedness of the assessment components, and thus we argue that designers should repeatedly consider the relationships between components of CBSAs to ensure the validity of the assessments. Finally, we also indicate the issues for future research in computer-based assessments.     

Comparative risk assessment primer

Comparative risk assessment (CRA) is both an analytical process and a methodology for prioritizing environmental problems. It is a useful tool for managers and planners at all levels of government. A personal computer (PC) DOS-based Comparative Risk Assessment Primer has been developed to train and assist those involved in environmental policy formation, and to serve as a detailed information source for persons interested in environmental risk and risk assessment. The primer provides: definitions of key terms; an overview of risk and risk assessment; a breakdown of the CRA methodology; an overview of risk management; summaries of 36 CRA projects; glossary; bibliography; and a listing of environmental information contacts. It is an interactive software program that incorporates text, line drawings and digitized imagery. Supplemental information accessible through hypertext links imbedded in the text passages and on select graphics provides on-line help and more detailed information for interested users.     

移动环境下神经功能评价多通道交互模型

随着平板电脑、智能手机、智能手表等智能移动设备的普及,利用便携的智能移动设备随时随地进行健康评价受到了国内外学者的广泛关注.人机交互特有的多通道、交互式、人机协同的计算能够有效地提高移动环境下神经功能评价的准确度.然而,目前很少有研究对人机交互在这一应用场景上发挥的作用进行过充分讨论,更没有形成统一的多通道交互模型.为此,首先分析了目前移动设备上主流的神经功能评价方法,归纳总结出了一套适用该应用场景的交互原语和交互任务.然后,在此基础上提出了移动环境下神经功能评价多通道人机交互模型——MINA（multimodal human-computer interaction model for nerve function assessment in mobile environment),并对该模型的移动医学评价和多通道融合特点进行了分析.最后,依据此模型给出神经系统疾病检测的应用实例.实践证明,MINA能够较好地指导交互式神经功能评价应用的设计和开发,多通道融合的方式能够有效地提高医学评价的准确度.     

A cost-effective approach to testing

A method for assessing the differential risk of failure among a system's modules is proposed. The procedure has three components: external-risk assessment, module exposure, and module-failure likelihood. External-risk assessment is a consideration of the system's environment, almost independent of the software's details. To estimate module exposure, the model relates individual modules and their potential faults to the external-failure modes and their economic consequences by reverse-engineering the specifications and analyzing each module's expected use. To estimate failure likelihood, the method uses a reliability model. The method constitutes theoretical foundation for the cost-effective development of software that attempts to reduce the risk of failure. Managers can use the failure-risk estimates to better determine how much testing effort can be economically justified     

基于DEMATEL和VIKOR的服务外包风险评估

服务外包风险评估是企业供应商管理的重要依据。传统风险评估方法FMEA没有考虑风险模式间的相互影响关系,模糊DEMATEL方法用来分析风险模式的净影响度,进而修正其初始评估的严重度。针对传统FMEA方法将风险因子简单相乘的缺陷,采用模糊VIKOR方法对风险模式的严重度、发生频率和难检度进行综合评估。传统模糊VIKOR计算过程中需要进行模糊数的反模糊化处理,造成信息的损失,相对偏好关系分析引入模糊VIKOR计算解决这一问题。以某公司服务外包风险评估为例,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

Random fuzzy multi-objective linear programming: Optimization of possibilistic value at risk (pVaR)

This paper considers multiobjective linear programming problems (MOLPP) where random fuzzy variables are contained in objective functions and constraints. A new decision making model optimizing possibilistic value at risk (pVaR) is proposed by incorporating the concept of value at risk (VaR) into possibility theory. It is shown that the original MOLPPs involving random fuzzy variables are transformed into deterministic problems. An interactive algorithm is presented to derive a satisficing solution for a decision maker (DM) from among a set of Pareto optimal solutions. Each Pareto optimal solution that is a candidate of the satisficing solution is exactly obtained by using convex programming techniques. A simple numerical example is provided to show the applicability of the proposed methodology to real-world problems with multiple objectives in uncertain environments.     

A comprehensive decision-making model for risk management of supply chain

Risk management of a supply chain (SC) has a great influence on the stability of dynamic cooperation among SC partners and hence very important for the performance of the SC operations as a whole. A suitable decision-making model is the cornerstone for the efficiency of SC risk management. We propose in this paper a decision-making model based on the internal triggering and interactive mechanisms in an SC risk system, which takes into account dual cycles, the operational process cycle (OPC) and the product life cycle (PLC). We explore the inter-relationship among the two cycles, SC organizational performance factors (OPF) and available risk operational practice (ROP), as well as the risk managerial elements in OPC and PLC. In particular, three types of relationship, bilateral, unilateral and inter-circulative ones, are analyzed and verified. We build this dynamic relation into SC risk managerial logic and design a corresponding decision-making path. Based on the analytic network process (ANP), a methodology is designed for an optimal selection of risk management methods and tools. A numerical example is provided as an operational guideline for how to apply it to tailor operational tactics in SC risk management. The results verify that this strategic decision model is a feasible access to the suitable risk operational tactics for practitioners.     

The gravity multiple server location problem

Models for locating facilities and service providers to serve a set of demand points are proposed. The number of facilities is unknown, however, there is a given number of servers to be distributed among the facilities. Each facility acts as an M/M/k queuing system. The objective function is the minimization of the combined travel time and the waiting time at the facility for all customers. The distribution of demand among the facilities is governed by the gravity rule. Two models are proposed: a stationary one and an interactive one. In the stationary model it is assumed that customers do not consider the waiting time at the facility in their facility selection decision. In the interactive model we assume that customers know the expected waiting time at the facility and consider it in their facility selection decision. The interactive model is more complicated because the allocation of the demand among the facilities depends on the demand itself. The models are analyzed and three heuristic solution algorithms are proposed. The algorithms were tested on a set of problems with up to 1000 demand points and 20 servers.     

信息系统安全评估的交互式群决策模型及实现

在分析信息系统安全方案评估方法缺陷的基础上,提出一种多轮交互式评估方法,以解决结构化较差和不完全信息的信息系统安全评估中多人决策问题。每个群成员对方案属性两两比较得到的转换为评价矩阵,通过多轮交互过程评价、选择、排序逐步形成群体理想解,最终得到群体一致的各方案的最终群体排序,并通过实例验证了方法的有效性和可行性,为信息系统安全方案的选优提供了一种有效的方法。     

基于FPP的网络安全风险量化评估研究

针对风险评估过程的不确定性,本文提出了一种基于模糊偏好规划法的网络安全风险综合评估模型。利用层次分析法确定各种风险因素相对重要性的评价区间,应用模糊偏好规划法处理风险因素的相对有效性量化评估,增强了评估准确性。通过评估实例分析可知,该模型可以方便地应用于网络安全风险评估,实验结果符合实际。