基于抢修时间的震后最优路径选择算法及GIS实现

针对震后最优路径选择相关算法的局限性和复杂性,在对城市道路系统抗震性预测的基础上,从道路抢修时间出发,提出一种改进的城市震后最优路径选择算法。运用地理信息系统（GIS）技术和数据库相关知识,以重庆邮电大学道路系统为例,设计和开发了城市震后最优路径分析系统。该系统可以有效地为救援力量快速到达救援现场,运输伤员、物资等提供合理的动态最优路径。     

基于移动互联网和物联网的防灾信息系统设计

信息化是提升灾害防治水平的有效手段之一,本文针对水利,地质等自然灾害防治部门,结合当前防灾的信息化建设需求,基于3G、移动互联网和物联网技术,设计了智慧防灾信息化系统,该系统以应急防灾的智能化调度、协同指挥、综合发布和群测群防为切入点,结合灾害应急和防治的业务流程,提供智能化信息交互和信息发布平台,在灾情管理、灾害应对、应急调度和评估反馈等各项工作中发挥重要作用,提升防灾减灾的科学性和主动性。     

地震灾害医疗应急救援推演研究*

将BP神经网络应用到对震后灾情的预测问题中,利用BP神经网络对汶川地震震后数据进行推演,采用神经网络估计模型分别对震后受伤人员数量和医疗物资医务人员需求进行预测。最后给出对地震应急救援具有重要指导意义的震后需求数据的估算方法,并且在对震后灾情评估以及医疗物资需求预测等问题的充分研究基础上,开发了基于GIS的地震医疗应急救援系统(EMERS)。     

基于GIS的安徽省地震应急快速反应系统及数据库建设

地震应急快速反应系统是地震部门防震减灾工作的重要环节,该文通过对安徽省地震应急快速反应系统及数据库建设的经验总结,介绍了系统设计与实现的思路、对重点技术和功能进行了论述。     

高分辨率遥感影像中道路震害信息的识别方法

大地震之后,紧急救援物资运输迫切需要了解灾区道路的震害信息,然而当前对遥感影像中道路的震害信息提取大多是基于像素的,提取的精度普遍不高。提出了一种面向对象的道路震害信息提取方法,通过综合利用道路的多种影像特征及震前GIS矢量道路相结合来提取道路,然后依据提取道路的完整程度来识别道路震害信息。采用汶川灾区的遥感影像为例进行了实验,与目视判读的结果比较后证明该方法有效改善了信息提取的速度和精度。     

Integration of super-pixel segmentation and deep-learning methods for evaluating earthquake-damaged buildings using single-phase remote sensing imagery

ABSTRACT

Rapid identification of post-earthquake collapsed buildings can be used to conduct immediate damage assessments (scope and extent), which could potentially be conducive to the formulation of emergency response strategies. Up to the present, the assessments of earthquake damage are mainly achieved through artificial field investigations, which are time-consuming and cannot meet the urgent requirements of quick-response emergency relief allocation. In this research study, an intelligent assessment method based on deep-learning, super-pixel segmentation, and mathematical morphology was proposed to evaluate the damage degrees of earthquake-damaged buildings. This method firstly utilized the Deeplab v2 neural network to obtain the initial damaged building areas. Then, the simple linear iterative cluster (SLIC) method was employed to segment the test images so as to accurately extract the area boundaries of the earthquake-damaged buildings. Next, the images subdivided by SLIC can be merged according to the initial damaged building areas identified by Deeplab v2 neural network. Finally, a mathematical morphological method was introduced to eliminate the background noise. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed algorithm was superior to others in both convergent speed and accuracy. Besides, its parameter selection was flexible and easily realized which was of great significance to earthquake damage assessments and provided valuable guidance for the formulation of future emergency response plans after earthquake events.     

基于遥感影像不透水层估算的震后城区损坏面积评估

地震灾害评估对于抗震救灾具有重要的现实意义,传统的灾害评估方法大多基于震后实地的统计数据进行,在数据获取的现势性和灾害评估效率方面存在问题,针对这一不足,结合遥感数据的特点,提出了一种基于遥感不透水层估算的地震灾后城区损坏面积评估方法。该方法首先对地震前后玉树地区的两幅中分辨率遥感影像进行预处理,然后基于V-I-S模型,利用线性光谱混合分析方法,分别对地震前后震区遥感影像进行端元提取,获得不透水层的丰度图,最后通过计算地震前后不透水层像元个数,进行地震灾后城区损坏面积的评估。通过精度分析可以看出:该方法可以快速及时地获〖JP3〗取城市区域建筑物、公路等重要地物的宏观损坏面积情况,为灾后重建和震后决策提供了一定的依据。     

基于AHP和GIS技术的兰州市应急避难场所减灾能力评价

城市防灾减灾已经成为城市安全研究的关键问题。作为城市防灾减灾的重要场所和有效途径,应急避难场所在降低城市灾害风险、提高城市灾害韧性方面正发挥着越来越重要的作用。在对兰州市应急避难场所进行调研的基础上,将兰州市地质、医院、消防、人口、道路等信息以GIS为数据存储和处理平台构建数据集。再结合层次分析法从安全性、通达性、有效性和保障性4个层面构建一套应急避难场所减灾能力评价指标体系。通过评价分析得到兰州市15个应急避难场所中,4个减灾能力为一级,8个二级,3个三级。其中城关区应急避难场所的综合减灾能力最好。     

基于多源地震空间数据信息系统集成研究

将基于多源地震空间数据思想应用在地震灾害信息系统集成的主要功能及系统结构中,并就建立多源地震空间数据信息系统集成做了初步探讨,详细论述了多源地震空间信息集成系统的构建方案。该集成系统融合了各个地震子课题的研究成果与各自的优点,这对于全面掌握一定范围内可能的地震灾害分布,预测和预报可能的地震灾害,快速及时的对地震灾害进行防护和处理,最终保障社会的安全有着极为重要的作用。     

Incorporation of BIM-based probabilistic non-structural damage assessment into agent-based post-earthquake evacuation simulation

Earthquakes can cause severe damage to structural and non-structural elements of buildings; consequently, they pose high risks to human lives. To mitigate such risks, attention has been paid to enhancing the indoor environment for increased building safety. Yet little effort has been made to assess a building occupants' evacuation behaviors in response to damage to the indoor environment. This paper addresses this issue with a novel simulation framework that couples human behaviors with changes to the indoor building environment during post-earthquake evacuation. In particular, we present a building information modelling (BIM)-based prototype that simulates seismic damage to the non-structural indoor elements and visualizes its impacts on evacuation using a color-coded heat map. The simulated damage is then used as input to an agent-based model for post-earthquake evacuation. Using a probabilistic method to assess the non-structural elements' damage states, we are able to evaluate the impact of indoor damage on the evacuation process. We performed a trial of our prototype for a hypothetical earthquake in an educational building. The results revealed how the average evacuation time would increase as the earthquake intensity increases (from 38.6 s for the no-damage scenario to 122.9 for the highest-damage scenario). The proposed prototype has the potential to be joined with other tools, such as finite-element-based simulation, to incorporate structural analysis as well. Planners and designers can explicitly use our model's output to analyze the post-earthquake evacuation with the indoor non-structural damage to assess different building design geometries that increase the chances of a suitable evacuation process.     

An immersive virtual reality serious game to enhance earthquake behavioral responses and post-earthquake evacuation preparedness in buildings

Enhancing the earthquake behavioral responses and post-earthquake evacuation preparedness of building occupants is beneficial to increasing their chances of survival and reducing casualties after the mainshock of an earthquake. Traditionally, training approaches such as seminars, posters, videos or drills are applied to enhance preparedness. However, they are not highly engaging and have limited sensory capabilities to mimic life-threatening scenarios for the purpose of training potential participants. Immersive Virtual Reality (IVR) and Serious Games (SG) as innovative digital technologies can be used to create training tools to overcome these limitations. In this study, we propose an IVR SG-based training system to improve earthquake behavioral responses and post-earthquake evacuation preparedness. Auckland City Hospital was chosen as a case study to test our IVR SG training system. A set of training objectives based on best evacuation practice has been identified and embedded into several training scenarios of the IVR SG. Hospital staff (healthcare and administrative professionals) and visitors were recruited as participants to be exposed to these training scenarios. Participants’ preparedness has been measured along two dimensions: 1) Knowledge about best evacuation practice; 2) Self-efficacy in dealing with earthquake emergencies. Assessment results showed that there was a significant knowledge and self-efficacy increase after the training. In addition, participants acknowledged that it was easy, helpful, and engaging to learn best evacuation practice knowledge through the IVR SG training system.     

基于GIS的应急物资调运信息系统研究*

针对应急物流的特点和需求,本文提出了一种基于GIS的应急物资调运信息系统,并对系统的总体结构、工作流程和基本功能模块进行了分析。最后,系统仿真证明了该系统通过基于灾害风险系数和GIS的动态优化路径选择方法,较好地满足了应急物资调运的时效性需求。     

地震灾害下应急物流系统绩效评价

针对地震灾害下应急物流系统(ELS)绩效评价的问题,以地震灾害下的应急物流系统为研究对象,首先建立了ELS运作模型,并对该运作模型进行了分析;然后构建了地震灾害下应急物流系统绩效评价指标体系,并在上述基础上建立了基于BP神经网络的评价模型;最后将该评价方法应用于实例,验证了该评价方法的科学性和实用性。     

地震波形浏览Android应用的研制

基于Android系统开发地震波形浏览应用,实现了通过智能手机和移动互联网实时查看地震连续波形和事件波形,调用百度地图查看震中地理位置信息和震中附近历史地震信息的功能,提高了地震应急响应的速度,为地震科研人员随时随地了解地震信息提供了很好的平台。     

Pre-positioning disaster response facilities at safe locations: An evaluation of deterministic and stochastic modeling approaches

Choosing the locations of disaster response facilities for the storage of emergency supplies is critical to the quality of service provided post-occurrence of a large scale emergency like an earthquake. In this paper, we provide two location models that explicitly take into consideration the impact a disaster can have on the disaster response facilities and the population centers in surrounding areas. The first model is a deterministic model that incorporates distance-dependent damages to disaster response facilities and population centers. The second model is a stochastic programming model that extends the first by directly considering the damage intensity as a random variable. For this second model we also develop a novel solution method based on Benders Decomposition that is generalizable to other 2-stage stochastic programming problems. We provide a detailed case study using large-scale emergencies caused by an earthquake in California to demonstrate the performance of these new models. We find that the locations suggested by the stochastic model in this paper significantly reduce the expected cost of providing supplies when one considers the damage a disaster causes to the disaster response facilities and areas near it. We also demonstrate that the cost advantage of the stochastic model over the deterministic model is especially large when only a few facilities can be placed. Thus, the value of the stochastic model is particularly great in realistic, budget-constrained situations.     

The Increasing Cost of Disasters in Developed Countries: A Challenge to Local Planning and Government

The number and severity of disasters have increased in recent decades. Developed countries are not immune from this trend. Their governments and insurance industries are now being required to cope with rapidly increasing and unanticipated disaster expenditures. In some cases, disaster related claims have increased by more than a full order of magnitude in just a decade. It is important for local planners and governments to understand the general trend of disaster impacts in order to respond to them. To illustrate these trends, the increase in number and financial impact of the last decade of disasters in Canada are reviewed in this article along with some discussion of the impact on government and the insurance industry. In spite of the increasing impact of emergencies and disasters, Canadian local municipal governments have, in general, invested very little in emergency mitigation planning. Many municipalities have no emergency plans at all. Where plans exist, many only address a small range of possible threats, and many do not include any mitigation aspects. Emergency mitigation planning at the local municipal level is critical for effective mitigation and response. We review the general institutional context for local disaster and emergency planning in Canada, concluding that planners have sufficient tools available to begin to address the challenge. Political will and professional interest now is required to make the necessary advances.     

Integrating Information Technology into International Crisis Management and Policy

Decision processes in disaster environments pose a special challenge to rational problem solving. The urgency, complexity and uncertainty of disaster environments test the limits of human capacity for seeking, processing and disseminating information to support coordinated action. Current information technology offers a means of extending human problem solving capacity through an interactive, intelligent, spatial information system, if it is supported by a parallel organizational system designed to facilitate coordinated action. A preliminary model of organizational problem solving is proposed, focusing on the global problem of seismic risk. The model relies on the function of information technology to reduce uncertainty by increasing the timeliness and accuracy of information to disaster managers, thereby improving coordination in organizational performance. The model links information technology to organizational structure in ways that create feedback channels, improve organizational learning and increase capacity to correct organizational mistakes. The model is presented in terms of structuring technical and organizational conditions to support improved capacity for organizational problem solving in communities vulnerable to seismic risk. Illustrative data from a series of seven earthquake disasters demonstrate an evolving receptiveness to the integration of information technology into international crisis policy and practice.     

Advancing post-earthquake structural evaluations via sequential regression-based predictive mean matching for enhanced forecasting in the context of missing data

After an earthquake, every damaged building needs to be properly evaluated in order to determine its capacity to withstand aftershocks as well as to assess safety for occupants to return. These evaluations are time-sensitive as the quicker they are completed, the less costly the disaster will be in terms of lives and dollars lost. In this direction, there is often not sufficient time or resources to acquire all information regarding the structure to do a high-level structural analysis. The post-earthquake damage survey data may be incomplete and contain missing values, which delays the analytical procedure or even makes structural evaluation impossible. This paper proposes a novel multiple imputation (MI) approach to address the missing data problem by filling in each missing value with multiple realistic, valid candidates, accounting for the uncertainty of missing data. The proposed method, called sequential regression-based predictive mean matching (SRB-PMM), utilizes Bayesian parameter estimation to consecutively infer the model parameters for variables with missing values, conditional based on the fully observed and imputed variables. Given the model parameters, a hybrid approach integrating PMM with a cross-validation algorithm is developed to obtain the most plausible imputed data set. Two examples are carried out to validate the usefulness of the SRB-PMM approach based on a database including 262 reinforced concrete (RC) column specimens subjected to earthquake loads. The results from both examples suggest that the proposed SRB-PMM approach is an effective means to handle missing data problems prominent in post-earthquake structural evaluations.     

应用3S技术的突发灾害应急决策系统研究

针对突发灾害日益加剧的严峻形势,研究构建了一个应用3S技术的突发灾害应急决策支持系统。利用本系统可以进行数据的采集,专题图的分层显示,可视化专题查询,突发灾害的监测预警,灾情的评估与模拟,辅助应急决策和信息发布,为科学应对各种突发灾害事件提供了一个高效的途径。对系统的总体结构、构成系统的各功能模块以及数据库的建立等方面进行了设计研究与探讨。