情景分析法应用于能源需求与碳排放预测

能源是关系到国计民生的重要资源,国家日益倡导节能减排,能源需求预测与规划已成为了一个地区重要的任务。本文以全国十强县之一—江阴作为代表,应用情景分析法,预测2011～2020年能源需求与碳排放,以此反映我国经济发达县市能源需求和碳排放趋势。     

中国能源温室气体排放与可持续发展

全球气候变化对经济社会的可持续发展带来严重挑战。影响温室气体排放的因素主要有经济增长、人口、能源消费强度、能源结构等。预计中国2005～2020年GDP年均增长率为8.0%～8.6%。基准情景下,中国2050年能源需求总量达到66.19×108t标煤,人均能源消费量4.4t标煤,CO2排放量117.3×108t,能源消费弹性系数0.42,2020年CO2排放强度比2005年下降43%～48%;减排情景下,中国2050年能源消费量50.4×108t标煤,人均能源消费量3.5t标煤左右,CO2排放量70.7×108t,人均CO2排放量4.8t左右,能源消费弹性系数0.32,2020年CO2排放强度比2005年下降48%～52%,若能实现减排情景,则意味着中国已做到了低碳经济;而从可预见的技术条件以及清洁能源和可再生能源利用的规模来看,实现低碳情景难度很大。中国正处于工业化中期的发展阶段,能源需求增加是客观存在的,应力争转变经济增长方式,优化产业与产品结构,减少与控制高耗能产品出口,提高非化石能源比重和能源利用效率。发展中国家在应对全球气候变化行动中应制定中、短期目标与长期目标。中、短期目标即相对减排,中国政府制定的2020年CO2排放强度相对2005年降低40%～45%的约束性目标就属于相对减排;长期目标指的是当发展中国家实现工业化后,若全球技术发展迅猛,这时发展中国家温室气体的总量控制与减排才有可能做到。     

广州市碳排放达峰值分析

本文对城市达峰值的规律以及峰值研究方法进行了梳理,研究广州市碳排放峰值时先对广州市碳排放影响因素进行分解分析,随后基于相关规划对广州市的碳排放峰值进行了情景分析。结果表明,经济增长和人口规模是促进广州市碳排放的两个主要因素。经济增长是最重要的影响因素,未来人口增长将不会是碳排放增长的主要影响因素。产业结构、能源强度和碳排放系数都是减缓广州市碳排放的影响因素,其中能源强度的减排贡献度最大。未来广州市能源消费总量将持续增加,在高经济增速的情况下,广州市至2030年仍未达到碳排放峰值;在较低经济增速的情况下,广州市在2020年左右便可实现碳排放峰值。要实现碳排放达峰,必须引导合理的能源消费需求,加大节能力度;加快产业转型,大力发展低碳技术;大力发展天然气和新能源。
关键词：能源消费量;碳排放;峰值目标;广州市     

低碳经济背景下山东省“十二五”期间经济社会发展情景研究

发展以低能耗、低污染、低排放为特征的低碳经济,是山东省落实科学发展观、推进生态文明建设的必然选择。山东省人均碳排放明显高于全国平均水平,且两者之差几乎逐年增大。通过对山东省人均碳排放与人均GDP、能源强度、产业结构、城市化水平、对外贸易开放度的协整分析,分析结果表明碳排放与各因素之间存在长期均衡关系。另外,从碳排放的驱动因素出发,依据山东省已有的主要规划和中长期目标,以及关于未来经济趋势的分析,设置了基准、强化低碳经济、粗放型经济三种不同的发展情景对山东省"十二五"期间碳排放的演变趋势分析。研究表明2015年碳排放总量的取值区间约为31023.77×104~34461.88×104t,碳排放强度将在2010年0.63t/万元GDP的基础上降低9.98%~18.96%,山东省在采取积极减排措施的情况下基本可以实现碳排放强度降低18%的目标。提出了相关对策建议:优化能源结构,加大技术投入;调整产业结构,转变增长方式;完善政策机制,构建绿色贸易体系。     

中国民航碳排放的历史特征及未来趋势预测

中国民航面临日益严峻的节能减排压力,亟需开展行业碳排放预测相关研究。从1990~2016年来看,总体上我国民航业的碳排放年增长率低于周转量年增长率,吨公里燃油消耗呈稳步下降趋势;但2010年后出现了碳排放增长率高于周转量增长率的情况,吨公里油耗略有上升。由于我国民航燃油效率已经处于较高水平,提升空间不大,未来将在一定程度上影响减排潜力。利用kaya模型和LMDI分解法分析中国民航碳排放的主要驱动因素和贡献率,并设定8种排放情景预测民航未来的碳排放量。结果表明,在影响民航碳排放的运输规模效应、能源强度效应、运输结构效应、能源替代效应等因素中,能源强度效应是抑制碳排放增长的主要因素,而运输规模效应则是促进碳排放增长的主导因素,运输规模增长将继续推动我国民航碳排放的增长,而依靠能源强度下降实现行业减排的潜力将越来越小;替代能源尚未发挥作用且未来发展趋势不明朗。根据预测,中国民航碳排放量2020年将达到1.32×108~1.35×108t,2035年的碳排放量是2020年的1.9~2.6倍,2050年的碳排放量是2020年的1.6~3.9倍。     

2010～2020年我国能源和电力发展前景分析

本文对我国2015及2020年能源、电力消费以及碳排放强度进行高中低三种情景分析。结果表明,中方案和低方案能够实现到2020年非化石能源消费占一次能源消费比重达到15%的目标,而高方案要实现该目标,必须将人均能源消费弹性系数降至0.6左右;2020年,低碳能源发电量比例有望提高至29%～43%,核电装机比例能达到5%左右;在2010～2015年期间,清洁能源发电装机增量将首次超过煤电装机增量。     

2020年我国能源电力消费及碳排放强度情景分析

在工业化和现代化的进程中,无论是总量还是人均,我国能源和电力消费都将快速增长,且用电量的增速更快于能源消费。我国低碳经济的发展应以不断降低碳排放强度为目标,从优化产业结构和优化能源消费结构2方面同时着手实施,情景分析表明,我国2020年碳排放强度有望比2007年降低33%～37%。     

基于STIRPAT模型的陕西省工业碳排放量预测和情景分析

构建STIRPAT模型,定量分析陕西省工业碳排放量与工业经济规模、人均工业增加值、能源强度和能源结构之间的关系。通过岭回归分析后发现,工业经济规模、人均工业增加值、单位工业增加值能耗和原煤消费比每变化1%,陕西省工业碳排放量将发生0.231%,0.148%,0.561%和2.242%的变化。确定预测模型,设置8种不同的发展情景,分析陕西省工业碳排放量的发展趋势。结果表明,保持经济适度增长、能源强度下降和能源结构优化,能够控制陕西省工业碳排放量增长。     

四川省“十二五”节能目标对碳排放强度的贡献分析

基于四川省"十二五"期间单位GDP能耗下降目标,通过假设不同的发展情景建立了节能目标对碳排放强度的贡献分析模型,并以"十一五"期间四川省经济和能耗数据为基础,求得不同情景下碳排放强度降幅和二氧化碳累积减排量。结果表明,在单位GDP能耗下降16%的目标下,"十二五"期间四川省碳排放强度降幅为14.17%～22.43%,二氧化碳累积减排量为2.04×108～3.26×108t。同时控制煤炭、石油消费及增加天然气、水电等优质能源的消费比例是四川省实现"十二五"碳排放强度下降目标的有效途径。     

国际可再生能源新闻

综合类欧盟发布2050年实现减排目标"能源路线图"2011年12月15日,欧盟委员会在布鲁塞尔发布"2050能源路线图",即实现欧盟到2050年碳排放量比1990年下降80%～95%这一目标的具体路径。据欧委会介绍,欧盟将通过四种路径的组合来实现这一目标:提高能源利用效率、发展可再生     

Universalization of access to modern energy services in Tibetan rural households—Renewable energy's exploitation,utilization, and policy analysis

There are still more than 30% of the Tibetan administrative villages without power, and about 40% farmers there are suffering from a serious shortage of firewood. Tibet is abundant in the deposits of hydropower, geothermal, and solar energy. The practical ways to solve the universal service of Tibetan rural energy are researched in the paper. We find that there are two main objectives of the universal access to energy in Tibetan rural areas. One is to meet the demand of electricity consumption and daily energy consumption of the farmers and herdsmen without power, initially solve energy poverty, realize the equitable access to energy, and ensure the early access to modern civilization. The other is to guarantee the provision of energy required in Tibet's rural economic development and urbanization. Their accomplishment depends on the responsibilities’ definition and implementation in the universal service of energy by the central and local governments, and on the establishment of a universal service mechanism of energy. The conflict between the need of energy development in the agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet and its insufficient financial resources cannot be solved without the support and assistance from the central government and other developed provinces in China.     

World transport energy demand modelling : Methodology and elasticities

This paper presents the International Energy Agency's (IEA) approach of modelling transport energy demand. Fuel demand, which is not a demand per se, is derived, whenever possible, from the economic activity in the transport sector and not estimated directly, ie using one equation or (simultaneous) equation system. In general, the transport models employ a ‘two-step-approach’: in the first step, transport activity, the sector's relevant energy service, is estimated econometrically. In the second step, the transport activity projections are then combined with estimates of efficiency improvements, car turnover rates and diesel/gasoline penetration assumptions in order to arrive at projections of fuel demand. The principal advantages of this approach are that the relevant energy services are modelled and that, for model simulation, efficiency improvements can be dealt with explicitly. The effectiveness of economic instruments is a function of the reaction of consumers (and businesses) to income and price changes. An in-depth understanding of income and price elasticities of transport demand and transport energy demand is important in order to be able to assess the effectiveness of policies considered. The paper also shows the underlying long-term income and price elasticities for OECD and non-OECD regions.     

“十二五”节能服务产业发展前景与趋势

《国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》明确宣布国家将重点培育和发展节能环保产业等七大战略性新兴产业,而节能服务产业属于节能环保产业范畴,被寄予引领整个节能环保产业发展的厚望。加快推行合同能源管理、加快发展节能服务产业是"十二五"加快经济转型的战略选择和迫切要求。我国现有的节能服务产业发展支持政策可归结为法律法规支持、行政规章支持、专项财政支持以及规划引导和工程推动等4类,这些政策的制定和施行为"十二五"期间我国节能服务产业的快速发展营造了较好的政策环境。"十二五"期间,我国节能服务市场需求的驱动力来自市场驱动和政策驱动两个方面,全社会对节能服务的市场需求巨大。届时节能服务公司数量将经历一个先增后减的过程,"十二五"后期全国公司数量将为1500家左右,有大型企业背景的节能服务公司可能带来不公平竞争,跨国公司或将成为我国节能服务市场重要的竞争参与者;节能服务市场的开发将主要集中在工业领域,同时在建筑领域业务活动将有所加强,东、中、西部节能服务市场开发的差距将缩小,节能服务市场将进一步细分。     

Biomass for energy, food and materials in an industrial society of 10 billion people

In this paper we analyse the requirements of bioproductive land in a future industrial society of 10 billion people, with an average per capita economic standard comparable to that of the industrialized countries of today. Despite significantly more efficient technology, lowering demand for both energy and material per service delivered, requirement for food and material alone will call for a heavily increased demand for bioproductive land for use in agriculture and forestry. Large areas of short rotation energy plantations may be biophysically possible, but will clearly compete for available bioproductive land with agriculture and silviculture, as well as with preservation of the world's biodiversity. Therefore, the notion that there exists large areas of surplus or degraded land, which, without coming in conflict with food production and preservation of biodiversity, can be used for large energy plantations has not fully taken into account possible increased demand for bioproductive land from global industrialization and the raising of the global average economic standard.     

Economic analysis of passive houses and low-energy houses compared with standard houses

As the energy demand used for space heating accounts for 78% of EU15 household delivered energy consumption, significant reductions in energy demand can be achieved by promoting low-energy buildings. Our study investigates three building types: the standard house, the low-energy house and the passive house. As more far-reaching measures concerning energy savings usually lead to higher investments, the aim of our study is to perform an economic analysis in order to determine the economic viability of the three building types.     

Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model

China's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion had increased with an annual growth rate of 4.36% since 1980, hitting 1 GtC in 2003. The global climate change issue is becoming more and more important and hence to be the fourth challenge for China's future energy development, following energy supply shortages, energy security, and local environmental protection. This paper used three MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) family models, that is, MARKAL, MARKAL-ED (MARKAL with elastic demand), and MARKAL-MACRO, to study China energy system's carbon mitigation strategies and corresponding impacts on the economy. The models’ structures and the economic feedback formulations used in MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL-ED are briefly described. The endogenous demands in MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL-ED enable them to partly satisfy carbon abatement constraints via energy service demand reductions, and the reduction levels for the 30 demand sectors from these two kinds of models for given carbon emission constraints are presented and compared. The impact of carbon mitigation on social welfare from MARKAL and MARKAL-ED, and on GDP, investment and consumption from MARKAL-MACRO are evaluated. The changes in both final and primary energy mix, changes in technology development, as well as marginal abatement costs for given carbon constraints from the three models, are analyzed.     

The demand for energy in the UK: A general equilibrium analysis

Previous research into the demand for energy has treated economic activity as an explanatory variable. However, economic theory suggests that economic activity is not independent of energy prices and energy demand. We explore the two-way causality between energy demand and economic activity in the context of a macroeconometric model of the UK economy. Inter alia this study suggests that the demand for energy is more price elastic in general equilibrium than it is under the more conventional assumptions of partial equilibrium.     

非晶合金变压器及其节能效果

随着我国经济建设的高速发展,能源供应越来越紧张,特别是电力供需矛盾更显突出,因此抓好节能节电产品的推广应用是当前经济建设中不容忽视的一环。文章介绍了非晶合金变压器的概况及其节能效果,指出它比传统的硅钢片变压器可降低70％～80％的空载损耗。     

新一轮电改下电力辅助服务市场机制及储能参与辅助服务的经济性研究

  [目的]  新能源并网的大规模提升导致电网系统调峰调频的需求增加,如何完善电力辅助服务市场机制引起广泛关注。而且随着储能电池技术的日趋成熟及储能系统自身的优势,储能联合其他类型能源参与辅助服务的经济效益如何成为关注热点。  [方法]  重点介绍了我国电力辅助服务市场的发展历程,并结合2018年上半年各区域辅助服务市场相关数据分析了不同区域参与辅助服务的特点,对电改形势下的辅助服务市场机制作了进一步预测分析;同时介绍了储能参与辅助服务的市场前景及补贴政策。  [结果]  通过市场机制和补贴政策的梳理,明确了储能参与辅助服务市场的巨大前景。  [结论]  以火电联合储能参与AGC调频的实例验证了储能参与辅助服务具有良好的经济性,为相关投资者提供决策支撑。     

Recent estimates of energy efficiency potential in the USA

Understanding the potential for reducing energy demand through increased end-use energy efficiency can inform energy and climate policy decisions. However, if potential estimates are vastly different, they engender controversial debates, clouding the usefulness of energy efficiency in shaping a clean energy future. A substantive question thus arises: is there a general consensus on the potential estimates? To answer this question, this paper reviews recent studies of US national and regional energy efficiency potential in buildings and industry. Although these studies are based on differing assumptions, methods, and data, they suggest technically possible reductions of ~25–40 % in electricity demand and ~30 % in natural gas demand in 2020 and economic reductions of ~10–25 % in electricity demand and ~20 % in natural gas demand in 2020. These estimates imply that electricity growth from 2009 to 2020 ranges from turning US electricity demand growth negative, to reducing it to a growth rate of ~0.3 %/year (compared to ~1 % baseline growth).