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Changes in smoking prevalence in Ukraine in 2001-5

Objectives

To analyse trends in smoking prevalence in Ukraine from three surveys conducted in 2001–5, and to explore correlates of observed changes, in order to estimate the stage of tobacco epidemic in Ukraine.

Design

Repeated national interview surveys in Ukraine in 2001, 2002 and 2005.

Main outcome measure

Prevalence of current smoking among the population aged ⩾15 years.

Results

The age‐standardised prevalence of current smoking in Ukrainian men was 54.8% in 2001 and 66.8% in 2005. Among Ukrainian women, prevalence increased from 11.5% in 2001 to 20.0% in 2005. ORs for yearly increase in prevalence were estimated as 1.164 (95% CI 1.111 to 1.220) for men and 1.187 (1.124 to 1.253) for women, which implies that, on average, 3–4% of men and 1.5–2% of women living in Ukraine join the smoking population each year.

Conclusions

In Ukraine, smoking prevalence is increasing in most population groups. Among men, the medium deprivation group with secondary education has the highest smoking prevalence. Among women, while the most educated, young and those living in larger cities are the leading group for tobacco use, other groups are also increasing their tobacco use. Tobacco promotion efforts appear to have been significantly more effective in Ukraine than smoking control efforts. The decrease in real cigarette prices in Ukraine in 2001–5 could be the main factor explaining the recent growth in smoking prevalence.Ukraine is a large eastern European country with high smoking prevalence. Tobacco products are widely available at very low prices, and the transnational tobacco industry is extremely successful in promoting its products and lobbying for its interests in the legislative field. Advocacy of tobacco control has only recently achieved some success in the legislative field, with the first tobacco control law being adopted in late 2005. Ukraine ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in 2006, but there is still much cause for concern regarding the enforcement and effectiveness of the adopted legislative measures. Unfortunately, the government is not yet involved in nationwide surveillance of the tobacco problem, and the available data have mostly been gathered with funding from foreign donors. Several attempts have been made to measure the extent of the tobacco epidemic in the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU).^{1,2,3,4,5,6,7} Most of these studies have shown rather high smoking prevalence among men (50–70%) and comparatively low prevalence among women (5–20%). Most countries in the FSU have similar smoking rates, while certain trends are shown to be related to the differences in how the transnational tobacco industry succeeds in every national tobacco market.⁶ Unfortunately, few studies have been published showing trends in smoking prevalence in the FSU.⁷ In Ukraine, two studies^3,4 provided point estimates of smoking prevalence.The aim of this study was to analyse trends in smoking prevalence in Ukraine, on the basis of three surveys conducted in 2001–5, and to explore correlates of observed changes in order to estimate the stage of the tobacco epidemic in Ukraine.