海外矿山并购项目层面风险评价

项目层面风险是我国海外矿山并购的决定性风险因素之一。在现有研究基础上,对海外矿山并购项目层面的主要风险因素进行了识别,将矿床开采技术条件、地质资源条件等反映矿山生产特征的指标纳入评价指标体系中,使得指标体系更具针对性且更完善。构建了一套包括4个一级指标和11个二级指标的风险评价指标体系;利用TFN-RS方法综合了主客观赋权的双重优势以确定各评价指标的组合权重;基于云理论和物元理论,建立了海外矿山并购项目层面风险评价的云物元模型,运用MATLAB编程计算出各个评价指标的风险等级隶属度,提高了风险模糊性和不确定性的评价精度。使用本方法以中国有色矿业集团有限公司并购赞比亚卢安夏铜矿项目为例,进行项目层面风险评价,结果显示：该项目风险等级为“低”,但外部建设条件风险为“一般”,经济效益条件风险为“较低”。该项目的基础设施和工程地质条件不足,是项目层面风险的主要来源。     

紫金矿业集团的海外投资

紫金矿业是中国最大的黄金生产商,第二大矿产铜生产商,目前在海外多个国家和地区拥有处于生产、建设及可行性研究阶段的矿山及投资项目。清晰的海外投资发展战略,全面的风险控制,谨慎的并购流程,精细的本土化运营使得紫金矿业成为中国矿业企业"走出去"最成功的企业之一。     

并购海外矿山在技术尽职调查阶段的项目估值及风险揭示

本文介绍了并购海外矿山技术尽职调查的思路与方法,以海外某大型铜矿并购技术尽职调查为例,通过露天境界三维模型优化软件作为技术手段,估算多情景下的项目价值作为企业决策依据,通过估值分析揭示了标的技术性风险并评估风险及其对项目估值的影响,为走出去的资源企业并购海外矿山项目提供了坚实基础。     

浅析非矿山企业并购生产矿山的风险

当前政府加大矿产资源整合,鼓励上下游企业联合重组,提高产业集中度。对于矿产资源依赖很大的钢铁企业而言,现阶段参与矿山资源并购是难得的一次机遇。矿山并购是一项复杂的系统工程,专业化要求极高,由于矿业自身的行业特点,如对风险的任何忽视、轻视,都有可能招致项目最后的失败。针对矿山并购中可能存在的技术及行业风险进行详细分析,同时提出相应的预防措施,从而有效规避非矿山企业在并购生产矿山时的风险。     

地勘单位海外项目投资风险控制方法研究

<正>成果介绍1战略意义:世界矿产资源是丰富的,却分布极不均衡。在巨大的产能面前,中国将长期处于资源紧缺的局面,国有企事业单位海外发展战略亦是国家战略发展的需要,自2000年以来,华勘就尝试"走出去"发展战略,从最初提供勘查服务到拥有自己的矿权再到成功开发矿山和控股上市公司,足迹遍布40多个国家,通过对国有企事业单位海外发展可能存在的风险分析研究,做好评估风险,规避风险和预防风险发生,     

浅述如何稳妥实施“走出去”的资源战略

我国人均占有资源的相对不足,已影响到了国家经济发展和战略安全.本文系统地分析了在国家"走出去"资源战略的号召下,我国企业参与海外资源并购的现状和特点以及存在的问题.通过总结收购北美一家上市矿山企业的亲身体会,对我国企业实施海外资源收购提出了一些建议.     

中国矿业企业海外并购面临的主要风险及应对策略

从资源、经济和国家安全等角度考虑,中国矿业企业"走出去"进行海外并购确实是大势所趋。数据显示,近几年中国矿业企业海外并购的步伐加快,但总的来看成功的案例不多。通过对近几年中国矿业企业海外并购的案例分析和亲身实践,全面梳理总结了海外并购的主要风险、决定因素和应对策略,旨在与同领域有志之士共同学习、交流和研讨。     

铝矿资源海外开发战略选区风险评价

对所投资区域的风险进行评价是进行海外铝矿资源开发的基础性工作,首先,对铝矿资源海外开发战略选区面临的主要风险进行了识别,构建了评价指标体系,并用Delphi法确定权重;将云理论引入到物元理论中,建立了基于云物元理论的铝矿资源海外开发战略选区风险评价模型,并进行了案例应用,利用Matlab软件编程计算了各风险等级的隶属度.研究结果表明:澳大利亚和美国处于“低”风险状态;巴西、印度、圭亚那、哈萨克斯坦处于“较低”风险状态;越南、苏里南和俄罗斯处于“一般”风险状态;几内亚、牙买加、希腊处于“较高”风险状态;委瑞内拉处于“高”风险状态.     

中国企业投资开发海外铜矿资源现状及建议

我国铜生产企业铜矿自给率逐年下降,海外收购资源步伐加快,我国企业通过收购资源企业、参加国外政府项目招标、与国外公司联合开发、租赁国外铜矿企业等方式,在国外获取铜矿。其中有失败,也有成功,如果能有效的避免海外投资风险,我国企业将在海外走的更远。     

中国矿业企业海外并购的发展历程和推动因素

从矿业大国向矿业强国转变,中国矿业行业必须"走出去"。本文回顾梳理了中国矿业企业海外资源并购之路的四个发展阶段和并购浪潮兴起的主要动机,重点关注了其中独具中国特色的推动因素,就矿业企业在海外并购决策时应如何更好地平衡公司利益与国家利益提出思考。     

基于VIKOR法的铀资源海外投资项目风险评价研究

结合当前海外矿产资源开发项目具有投资周期长、风险种类多的实际情况,建立了铀资源海外投资项目风险评价指标体系,并运用AHP和VIKOR算法构建了铀资源海外投资项目风险评价模型。运用该模型对4个铀资源海外投资方案进行择优选择,通过计算群体效益值、个别遗憾值和利益比率对备选投资方案进行比较并排序。研究结果表明：运用VIKOR算法对铀资源海外投资项目进行风险评价具有有效性和可操作性。     

Rare Earth: Production,Trade and Demand

Rare earth resources mining, processing, export for last 5 years in China and global market demand of rare earth have been reviewed in present paper. Being major provider of rare earth products in global market, rare earth industry in China has been much developed along with her economy development in recent years. The fast growth of rare earth industry caused a lot of problems including pollution, environment protection, etc. Chinese government has to take series measures, both economic and administrative, to restrict export of rare earth products in order to guarantee to meet needs for domestic market. Moreover, some rare earth plants, which could not meet requests of environment protection, or whose pollution is still serious, have to be closed completely. As a result of this, price of rare earth is rising up along with the cost of production and overhead. More important is that the impact, both mental and practical, has been resulted for importers and oversea end-users. There are two “domino effects” mainly: one is that some of new oversea rare earth deposits start to mine and some closed old deposits are re-mining again for making up the deficiency of rare earth in the market, another is that some of oversea end-users with their enterprises are urged to move into China.     

稀土市场回顾及对我国稀土产业发展的建议

对2009~2015年的稀土市场情况进行回顾,结果表明稀土价格分别经历了2009~2011年初处于上升阶段、2011年1季度~2012年3季度处于暴涨暴跌阶段和2012年3季度~2015年末处于下降并持续低位徘徊阶段;稀土价格走势最具波动区间段是2010年第3季度~2013年第1季度,价格呈现倒“V”型态势,在2011年3季度,大部分稀土价格达到2009年的10~15倍;2011年后,稀土价格持续下降,导致大部分产品出口量与创汇额变化呈负相关,如氧化镧从2011年到2014年,出口量增加244.57 %,创汇额却下降80.01 %;2011~2014年稀土出口配额使用率较低,2012年仅为48.33 %,配额制形同虚设.分析表明我国稀土市场持续疲软主要在于我国稀土缺乏定价权和对市场掌控能力偏弱.通过稀土市场情况分析及稀土开发存在的现实困境,提出包括尽快出台资源税和环境税负改革,加快大集团区域化管控稀土资源;促进稀土集团尽快解决现存问题;加快储备政策制定与落实等4方面的建议,为国家对稀土市场的宏观调控建言献策.      

基于ISM和ANP的废弃稀土矿山治理效果影响因素分析

为系统了解关键因素对废弃稀土矿山治理效果的影响机理,从自然禀赋、矿业活动、环境污染、土地资源脆弱程度、景观生态、治理工程、管理技术和政策响应8个方面构建了废弃稀土矿山治理效果影响因素指标体系.基于解释结构模型(ISM)和网络层次分析模型(ANP),研究各指标间的相互影响关系,找到影响废弃稀土矿山治理效果的主要因素,为今...     

Global rare earth resources and scenarios of future rare earth industry

It is known to all that China is abundant in rare earth resources.But rare earth deposits are really not that rare in the earth crust.In the five continents,i.e.Asia,Europe,Australia,North and South America,and Africa,there are about thirty four countries found to have rare earth deposits;Brazil might surpass China and rank the first in rare earth deposits.At present,investment in rare earth production was surged,there have been about 200 projects,and the total production for 25 of them would be more than 170 thousand tons after 2015,a multi-supply system on rare earths is being established worldwide.Cautions on the investment of rare earth production are involved.     

某稀土冶炼厂及周边环境土壤中放射性核素分布特征与风险评价

为查明某稀土冶炼厂及周边环境土壤中放射性核素污染程度及危害,分析某稀土冶炼厂及其周边土壤中~(238)U、~(232)Th、~(226)Ra和~(40)K的分布特征,采用地质累积指数法、内梅罗污染指数法,健康风险评价等方法对研究区土壤放射性核素进行了研究。结果表明,4种放射性核素浓度范围分别为~(238)U 50.73～6 275.00、~(232)Th 131.00～3 581.00、~(226)Ra 45.63～5 952.00、~(40)K 59.90～1 065.00Bq/kg。由于自然淋滤和渗漏作用,随深度增加,~(238)U、~(232)Th、~(226)Ra和~(40)K浓度呈减小趋势。地质累积指数法表明,4、5号采样点~(238)U、~(232)Th和~(226)Ra为主要污染核素,其评价指数分别为(3.14、2.81、1.16)、(5.19、3.13、4.91),属重度、极重度污染。内梅罗综合污染指数法表明,4号和5号采样点属于极重度污染。健康风险评价模型分析表明,经口摄取途径健康风险较大,高于人体接受范围,吸入摄取途径健康风险在可接受范围内。某稀土冶炼厂周边土壤环境对人体具有一定的健康风险。     

Proposal of the partial logarithm of stability constant (PLSC) and its application to rare earth diethylenetriamine-N,N,N′,N′,N″,-pentaacetic acid (DTPA) complexes

The purpose of this article is to propose the idea of “a partial stability constant” for the complex formation of polyamine polyacetic acids with tripositive rare earth ion. Each coordinating group has its own characteristic stability constant,i.e.,“the partial stability constant” and simple numerical addition can be used among the partial logarithm of the stability constant (PLSC), for explanation of the total stability constants. The structures of the rare earth－diethylenetriamine-N,N,N′,N′,N″-pentaacetic acid (DTPA) complexes in aqueous solution has been discussed from the point of PLSC.     

Predicting Profit Performance for Selecting Candidate International Construction Projects

International projects are inherently exposed to unpredictable and complicated risk scenarios. To minimize possible losses due to these risk exposures, construction firms have their own procedures or basic tools for selecting potential projects, but they are usually based on the experience and knowledge of the firm’s engineers and decision makers that are often very subjective and lack scientific basis. This paper presents a quantitative profit prediction model for the early stage of an international project as a systematic risk-screening tool that involves the processes of defining, analyzing, and evaluating various profit-influencing risk variables. Various successful and unsuccessful international project cases with respect to profit levels are collected. Then, a scale-based profit prediction model to select candidate overseas projects is developed through factor analysis and a multiple regression analysis. Finally, this paper provides implications for global project management and lessons learned from case studies to improve profitability for international projects.     

Risks in Chinese Construction Market—Contractors’ Perspective

With China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Chinese construction market will be increasingly open and finally become part of the international market. Because of different social and economic systems, as well as different historical and cultural backgrounds, contractors are likely to encounter different risks in different markets. Based on questionnaires and case studies, this paper adopts an importance evaluation index and makes an importance evaluation of various risks encountered by Chinese contractors when contracting for projects in Chinese markets. This paper also makes comparisons between and analyses of the research findings and related available investigation results. The Cox–Stuart trend increase test method is applied in the current research, the results indicating that the variance corresponding to the importance index value tends to increase as the risk event importance decreases. This tendency shows that those investigated tend towards unanimity in terms of higher importance risk events. This paper also examines the reliability of the questionnaires by means of Cronbach’s Alpha Coefficient. The research shows that the main risk currently encountered by Chinese contractors in domestic markets includes owner’s irregular behavior and government departments’ interference in construction markets. China’s accession to the WTO has provided greater opportunities for international contractors to enter the Chinese construction market. Therefore the research results described in this paper can provide valuable data enabling international contractors to gain a better understanding of the potential risks in the environment of the Chinese construction market.