关于中国电价问题的探讨

中国电力工业与发达国家电力工业的最大差别是电价,发展中国家和传统的社会主义国家都以大大低于成本的价格出售电力。发达的市场经济国家实行市场定价,电价较高,发展中国家是政府定价,定价较低。电价改革是电力体制改革的前提条件。与发达国家比较,我国生活电价严重偏低,我国工业电价低于OECD大多数国家,OECD大多数国家生活电价都高于工业电价,而我国生活电价还低于工业电价,所以我国生活电价严重偏低。为改变我国居民电价严重偏低的问题,我国自2008年开始研究实行阶梯电价。由于中国目前的电价严重偏低,中国电力工业因长期维持低电价而处于高负债和部分企业资不抵债的境地。国外电力投资商撤离中国,民营电力投资商撤离电力工业,五大电力集团煤电企业严重亏损,煤电新增装机容量不断减少。为此加快电价的市场化改革势在必行。     

我国居民电力消费影响因素的协整研究

针对实施阶梯电价前考虑电价及收入水平等因素对居民用电需求的影响、对设计阶梯式分档电价及各档电价的电量划分问题,采用向量误差修正模型定量研究了我国1985～2008年的居民电力消费影响因素.结果表明,居民人均收入和替代能源价格对居民电力消费有正向作用;我国居民的电力需求缺乏价格弹性,为充分发挥阶梯电价确保居民基本生活用电需求和抑制电力高消费的作用,实施时应拉大备档价差或增加电量的分档数.     

我国售电侧放开改革下的电价套餐定价策略探索

在我国售电侧放开改革纵深发展的背景下,提出了基于组合定价的电价套餐定价关键过程,基于用户选择权和用户价值,构建了基于当前价值、潜在价值和信用状况的电力用户细分指标体系,并从套餐标识维度、产品维度和价格维度界定了电价套餐信息模型。     

基于电力市场环境的储能电站运营策略研究

随着我国能源结构转型步伐的加快,储能作为一种新业态在提高电网电能质量、消纳、调频和电力可靠性等方面起着关键性作用。然而,我国电力市场并不完善,如何最大化储能电站的收益是电力市场环境下投资、运营亟需解决的重要问题。本文研究储能电站参与电力市场的优化运行策略。从我国电力市场建设政策方面分析储能参与电力市场的可行性;基于调频服务补偿机制,建立了储能电站参与价格套利服务和调频服务市场的优化模型。通过算例,分析当前分时电价机制下本文提出的组合服务运营策略能够显著提升储能电站的投资经济性,具有较好的应用前景。     

基于电力市场交易规则的最优用能策略研究

在电力市场开放的条件下,园区用户的综合能源优化可通过参与电力市场购电的方式进一步优化用能曲线,从而达到电力市场环境下的智慧用能。相较于峰谷平电价,电力市场中的实时电价与多个因素相关,包括长期签约电量、日前电价、日前申报用电曲线及实时用电量。该文研究重点是如何综合考虑各个因素对实时电价的影响,并对用户的用能曲线进行最优化平移,达到用户在电力市场环境下的用电经济性最优。基于山东省某一园区用户的用电曲线进行了电力市场环境下的不同用能曲线平移策略分析,并比较了不同用能策略可节约的成本空间。     

基于有偏t分布ARMAX模型的短期电价预测

基于正态分布假设的时间序列分析模型不能有效地处理电价的有偏厚尾性,在对电力市场现货电价的影响因素和波动规律综合分析的基础上,提出了一种基于有偏学生t分布ARMAX模型的短期电价预测方法.该方法可同时考虑电价分布的有偏厚尾性、多重周期性及其与负荷之间的非线性相关性.对PJM电力市场历史数据的算例研究表明,该方法计算量小,待估参数少.     

基于有偏t分布ARIVIAX模型的短期电价预测

基于正态分布假设的时间序列分析模型不能有效地处理电价的有偏厚尾性,在对电力市场现货电价的影响因素和波动规律综合分析的基础上,提出了一种基于有偏学生t分布ARMAX模型的短期电价预测方法。该方法可同时考虑电价分布的有偏厚尾性、多重周期性及其与负荷之间的非线性相关性。对PJM电力市场历史数据的算例研究表明,该方法计算量小,待估参数少。     

如何应对当前我国电力供应不足的问题

2003年我国经济增长速度将7.8～8.3%,全社会用电量需求增长也将达11～13%。本文分析了当前我国电力供需紧张的主要原因,电网负荷率降低使得可发电量有余、可供电力不足。为了解决当前电力供应不足的问题,本文提出采用需求侧管理的办法,通过拉大峰谷电价,推出尖峰电价及可中断负荷等措施,降低1000万kW的高峰负荷,缓解电力供应紧张的局面。     

基于多周期GARCH-M模型的短期电价预测

电价的分布特性是电力市场风险管理和电力金融产品定价的重要依据。建立了一个采用虚拟变量和正弦函数来刻画现货电价序列多周期性特征的GARCH-M模型。该模型易于定阶、待估参数少,可同时处理电价序列的趋势变化、多周期、异方差及其与负荷之间的非线性相关性,具有一定的实用价值。对PJM电力市场历史数据的分析表明,电价分布的异方差和负荷的平方对电价均值具有显著的影响,电价序列具有周、半月、月、季、半年等多重周期和明显的波动集聚性。     

扭曲的电价

中国电价如同乱麻一般缠绕在电力改革的巨轮上。几乎尽人皆知定价弊政来自于审批怪力,但为何打破壁垒回到常识会如此艰难？国内电力市场化改革12年来,电力市场虽然出现了很大的改观,但距电价改革的目标相距甚远。当年,政府提出电价改革的基本思路是：在稳步推进电力体制及电力市场改革的基础上,建立清晰的、分环节的（上网电价、输电电价、配电电价和终端销售电价）电价体系和相应的电价形成机制。同时,     

节能、绿色、公平负担型电价实施研究

我国现行目录电价结构是在1976年国家颁布的《电热价格》基础上形成的。随着我国经济高速发展,能源和电力发展的供需矛盾越来越紧张,资源和环境的压力日益加大;现行电价机制的不合理性已经明显显现,改革现行电价机制是我国电力体制改革的根本措施之一。建议电价改革的原则为:从需求侧着手;客观地反映供电成本包括环境污染的外部成本,谁污染,谁承担;鼓励节能、制裁浪费;为新能源和可再生能源发电提供公平竞争环境和市场发展空间;公平承担、适度向低收入人群倾斜;考虑中西部经济发展水平和收入的差距,对西部给予政策倾斜和优惠。     

On-grid electricity tariffs in China: Development,reform and prospects

With the introduction of market-oriented measures in China's power sector in the mid-1980s, electricity sale prices to the grid companies—on-grid electricity tariffs—became the focus of the energy industry, thus affecting all related stakeholders, including fuel suppliers, power generators and end-use consumers. A number of changes have gradually been undertaken in terms of electricity tariff settings and their implementation to address specific requirements of the expansion of the power industry at each stage of its development. On-grid electricity tariffs had been used as a key lever to attract investment in power generation at an early stage of reform and then to encourage competition in the power industry. In response to the rising concerns about environmental protection and the promotion of clean energy utilisation, tariffs have progressively been developed for renewable electricity generation, which has contributed to massive expansion of the renewable power industry in China. This paper reviews key milestones of the development of on-grid electricity tariffs in China, examines the tariff-setting mechanisms of coal-fired power plants and renewable power generation, analyses the factors associated with the adjustments of the tariff levels and discusses the options for further reform and more effective electricity pricing.     

Does a small difference make a difference? Impact of feed-in tariff on renewable power generation in China

This study investigates the effectiveness of regionally differentiated feed-in tariffs (FIT) for the development of renewable energy in China. By using a spatial regression discontinuity design, we estimate the impacts of regionally differentiated FITs on the outcome indicators of wind and solar power generation, such as utilization rate, installed capacity, power generation, and hours of operation. Our findings show that FIT implementation plays an important role in promoting renewable energy development. A small difference in the tariff rate leads to statistically significant differences in outcome indicators among regions. Our results suggest that regionally differentiated FITs might help mitigate the overproduction of wind electricity in regions with abundant wind resources but low electricity demand. In addition, we conclude that enlarged tariff gap among regions can lead to greater impact on increasing installations of renewable power generation facilities in resource-poor regions.     

德国分布式电源的发展经验及其启示

德国是世界上分布式电源发展的典范,尤其是在发展用户侧光伏发电系统方面积累了丰富的经验。德国强调立法的科学性和可操作性,借助灵活的上网电价机制,兼顾各方利益,充分调动各方积极性,同时通过简单便捷的管理流程、明确严格的并网技术标准,依托配电网和大电网建设,实现光伏发电的积极、有序、可持续发展。我国分布式电源并网管理整体来看已走在世界前列,但仍需在政策体系和管理机制上进一步优化。建议我国应借鉴德国经验,将中长期发展目标与年度计划有效衔接,采用灵活的上网电价调整机制,根据装机规模合理调整上网电价;加快建立适应分布式电源的项目全过程管理机制;加快分布式电源标准体系建设,保障公共电网安全稳定;借鉴德国的三量双价制:电网企业利用既有网络、技术和服务优势,负责上、下网电量和系统发电量的计量,政府给予自用电量电价补贴,鼓励合理确定项目装机容量或通过储能装置提高自用电量;加快推进智能电网建设。     

德国《可再生能源法》2014年最新改革解析及启示

德国政府计划于2014年对可再生能源支持政策进行全面改革,此次改革仍保留了《可再生能源法2012》的整体架构,重点是要控制非水电可再生能源的补贴成本。采取的主要措施包括控制风电、光伏和生物质发电年度装机容量增长目标,补贴重点侧重更加经济有效的可再生能源类型(即陆上风电和光伏),上网电价递减率与年度新增装机容量挂钩的灵活限额机制,调整上网电价递减周期等。同时通过直接营销和拍卖等市场机制,让可再生能源更加融入市场。这标志着德国可再生能源的发展进入到引导投资和重点扶持的新阶段。建议借鉴德国《可再生能源法》完善我国可再生能源支持政策,包括针对不同可再生能源的技术特点制定完善的、自适应的上网电价模型,顺应技术发展规律实行"老机老电价、新机新电价"的电价调整机制,不断提高补贴手段的市场化和有效性等。     

绿色电力营销 可再生能源发展的市场动力

本文从分析中国可再生能源发展的障碍入手,指出现有电力销售机制及电价形成机制是可再生电力发展的瓶颈,也使得目前中国旨在促进可再生能源扩大规模、降低成本的政策无法得到有效的实施。根据迈克尔·波特的竞争战略理论,采用绿色电力营销的标歧立异战略,能帮助可再生能源发电产业在一定细分市场内建立相对于传统电力的竞争优势,同时也可克服现有电力销售机制的局限。一方面可再生电力与普通电力的差价由自愿购买的用户承担,避免每上一个可再生能源项目就需要提高全网电价的做法,是对现有体制的创新,同时也大大降低交易成本;另一方面差价取决于用户的支付意愿,差价越低,用户的支付意愿越高,市场越大;差价越高,支付意愿越低,市场越小,有利于形成竞争局面,促使可再生能源发电厂商降低发电成本。本文建议应当鼓励北京、上海等大城市的电力公司率先启动绿色电力营销计划,并为绿色电力营销创造良好的市场环境。     

Analysis of wind power generation operation management risk in China

The Chinese government has made an important effort to diversify the country's energy mix and exploit different sources of renewable energy. Although China's installed wind power capacity has undergone a dramatic expansion over the past six years, the electricity generated from wind power has not increased as expected. Meanwhile, operational risks, such as high generation cost, mismatch between capacity and generation, intermittent wind power generation, power grid construction lag, deficient policy, and operation mechanism, have become increasingly prominent. If not controlled, these risks will negatively affect wind power development in China. Therefore, this paper established a quantitative analysis model of wind power operation management risk from two aspects, feed-in tariff and grid electricity (electricity being connected to the grid), based on an analysis of wind power operation management risk in China. Moreover, this study quantitatively assessed the risk of the operational management of a wind farm in Inner Mongolia. Finally, corresponding risk control strategies for the healthy development of wind power generation in China were proposed.     

Cost and optimal feed-in tariff for small scale photovoltaic systems in China

China has recently become a dominant player in the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry, producing more than one-third of the global supply of solar cells in 2008. However, as of 2008, less than 1% of global installations were based in China. Recently, the government has stated its grand ambitions of expanding the share of electricity derived from solar power. As part of this initiative, policy makers are currently in the process of drafting a feed-in tariff policy to support the development of the solar energy market. In this paper, we aim to calculate what the level of such a tariff should be. We develop a closed form equation for the cost of PV, and use forecasts on prices of solar systems to derive an optimal feed-in tariff, including a digression rate. The focus is on the potential of residential and small scale commercial solar PV installations. We show that the cost of small scale PV in China has decreased rapidly during the period 2005–2009. Our analysis also shows that optimal feed-in tariffs vary widely between regions within China, and that grid parity could be reached in large parts of the country depending on the expected escalation in electricity prices.     

Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis

The feed-in tariff policy is widely used to promote the development of renewable energy. China also adopts feed-in tariff policy to attract greater investment in solar photovoltaic power generation. This study employs real options method to assess the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs in 30 provinces of China. The uncertainties in CO₂ price and investment cost are considered. A method that integrates the backward dynamic programming algorithm and Least-Squares Monte Carlo method is used to solve the model. The results demonstrate that the feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh. On this basis, we find that the levels of sub-regional feed-in tariff announced in 2013 are no longer appropriate and should be adjusted as soon as possible. We have also identified the implications of technological progress and carbon emission trading schemes, as well as the importance of strengthening electricity transmission. It has been suggested that the Chinese government takes diverse measures, including increasing research and development investment, establishing and improving a nationwide carbon emission trading scheme and accelerating the construction of electricity-transmission infrastructure, to reduce the required feed-in tariff and promote the development of solar photovoltaic power generation.     

关于当前电力改革的思考——如何积极稳妥地推进电力体制改革

本文阐述了电力体制改革的目的是促进电力工业的发展的基本观点,探讨了根据我国国情进路行电力体制改革的必要,提出了鼓励创新走自己改革之路,同时阐明了电价改革是电力体制改革的核心内容。文章对当前改革的迫切任务作了探讨,认为首要任务是立法,必须补上先立法后改革这一课;在实行厂网分开过程中,要特别强调电力系统的统一规划和电网的统一调度,以实现电力资源的优化配置与利用,保证供电安全。