An interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for greenhouse gas mitigation in energy systems under uncertainty

In this study, an interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (IFSP) model is developed for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction management under uncertainties. In the IFSP model, methods of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) are introduced into an integer programming framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions over a multi-stage context. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion during the planning horizon. The developed model is applied to a case of planning GHG-emission mitigation, demonstrating that IFSP is applicable to reflecting complexities of multi-uncertainty, dynamic and interactive energy management systems, and capable of addressing the problem of GHG-emission reduction. A number of scenarios corresponding to different GHG-emission mitigation levels are examined; the results suggest that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating plans for energy resource/electricity allocation and capacity expansion and help decision makers identify desired GHG mitigation policies under various economic costs and environmental requirements.     

A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM

This paper aims to test the ETSAP²-TIAM global energy system model and to try out how far it can go towards a global 100% renewable energy system with the existing model database. This will show where limits in global resources are met and where limits in the data fed to the model until now are met.     

State renewable energy electricity policies: An empirical evaluation of effectiveness

Over the past decade, state governments have emerged as US energy policy leaders. Across the country, states are adopting policy instruments aimed at carbon mitigation and renewable energy deployment. One of the most prevalent and innovative policy instruments is a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), which seeks to increase the share of renewable energy electrification in the electricity market. This analysis evaluates the effectiveness of state energy programs with an empirical investigation of the linkage between state RPS policy implementation and the percentage of renewable energy electricity generation across states. We use a variant of a standard fixed effects model, referred to as a fixed effects vector decomposition, with state-level data from 1998 to 2006. Results indicate that RPS implementation is not a significant predictor of the percentage of renewable energy generation out of the total generation mix, yet for each additional year that a state has an RPS policy, they are found to increase the total amount of renewable energy generation. These findings reveal a potentially significant shortcoming of RPS policies. Political institutions, natural resource endowments, deregulation, gross state product per capita, electricity use per person, electricity price, and the presence of regional RPS policies are also found to be significantly related to renewable energy deployment.     

Economic modelling of price support mechanisms for renewable energy: Case study on Ireland

The Irish Government is considering its future targets, policy and programmes for renewable energy for the period beyond 2005. This follows a review in 2003 of policy options that identified a number of different measures to stimulate increased deployment of renewable energy generation capacity. This paper expands this review with an economic analysis of renewable energy price support mechanisms in the Irish electricity generation sector. The focus is on three primary price support mechanisms quota obligations, feed in tariffs and competitive tender schemes. The Green-X computer model is utilised to characterise the RES-E potential and costs in Ireland up until, and including, 2020. The results from this dynamic software tool are used to compare the different support mechanisms in terms of total costs to society and the average premium costs relative to the market price for electricity. The results indicate that in achieving a 20% RES-E proportion of gross electricity consumption by 2020, a tender scheme provides the least costs to society over the period 2006–2020 but only in case there is limited or no strategic bidding. Considering, however, strategic bidding, a feed-in tariff can be the more efficient solution. Between the other two support mechanisms, the total costs to society are highest for feed-in-tariffs (FIT) until 2013, at which point the costs for the quota system begin to rise rapidly and overtake FIT in 2014–2020. The paper also provides a sensitivity analysis of the support mechanism calculations by varying default parameters such as the interim (2010) target, the assumed investment risk levels and the amount of biomass co-firing. This analysis shows that a 2010 target of 15% rather than 13.2% generates lower costs for society over the whole period 2006–2020, but higher costs for the RES-E strategy over the period 2006–2010.     

Overview of energy consumption and GHG mitigation technologies in the building sector of Japan

This paper outlines the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission trends in the residential and commercial sectors in Japan. The results showed that the increase in residential energy consumption in Japan is mainly caused by the widespread use of heating equipment, hot water supply apparatus, and other household electrical appliances. On the other hand, it was indicated that the increase in commercial energy use is mainly due to the increase of the floor area of buildings, particularly hotels, hospitals, and department stores. The paper also describes political measures to promote energy conservation, including the building energy conservation standard, Comprehensive Assessment System for Building Environmental Efficiency, top runner programs, financial incentives, and the dissemination of the Cool Biz concept. Finally, the projections of CO₂ emissions until 2050 are presented.

The potential for greenhouse gases mitigation in household sector of Iran: cases of price reform/efficiency improvement and scenario for 2000–2010

Iran's demographic profile is sharply youth oriented and this upcoming generation's needs for employment and housing, coupled with low-energy efficiency vectors and consumption patterns, has created a constant rise in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions in the residential sector. Improved energy efficiency as a national policy lynchpin for demand reduction and GHGs mitigation, has become commonplace. OPEC countries however, Iran included, suffer an obvious lack of consumer incentive because of low fuel prices. This study evaluates the twin impacts of price reform and efficiency programs on energy carriers’ consumption and GHGs mitigation in the Iranian housing sector. For this purpose, the demand functions for energy carriers, has been developed by econometrics process models.     

Greenhouse gas emission reduction perspectives in the Baltic States in frames of EU energy and climate policy

The goal of this paper is to estimate the perspectives of the Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on meeting the new European Union climate commitments, i.e., to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% to the year 2020 in comparison with 1990. This ambitious target could be reached based on other EU climate and energy package commitments: increase of the share of renewables and improvement of energy efficiency as tools for fulfilling the GHG emissions reduction target.The paper gives an overview on the current situation and future plans of the Baltic States in the field of energy efficiency, consumption of renewables and reduction of GHG emissions.     

Cost efficient utilisation of biomass in the German energy system in the context of energy and environmental policies

The possible uses of biomass for energy provision are manifold. Gaseous, liquid and solid bioenergy carriers can be alternatively converted into heat, power or transport fuel. The contribution of the different utilisation pathways to environmental political targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction and energy political targets for the future share of renewable energy vary accordingly to their techno-economic characteristics. The aim of the presented study is to assess the different biomass options against the background of energy and environmental political targets based on a system analytical approach for the future German energy sector. The results show that heat generation and to a lower extent combined heat and power (CHP) production from solid biomass like wood and straw are the most cost effective ways to contribute to the emission reduction targets. The use of energy crops in fermentation biogas plants (maize) and for production of 1st generation transportation fuels, like biodiesel from rapeseed and ethanol from grain or sugar beet, are less favourable. Optimisation potentials lie in a switch to the production of 2nd generation biofuels and the enhanced use of either biomass residues or low production intensive energy crops.     

Interactions between measures for the support of electricity from renewable energy sources and CO2 mitigation

As Europe wants to move towards a secure, sustainable and competitive energy market, it has taken action, amongst other, to support electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) and to mitigate CO₂ emissions. This paper first qualitatively discusses price- and quantity-based measures for RES-E deployment as well as CO₂ mitigation. Next, a simulation model is developed to quantitatively discuss the effects of a tradable green certificate system, a premium mechanism, a tradable CO₂ allowance system and a CO₂ tax on both RES-E deployment and CO₂ mitigation. A three-regional model implementation representing the Benelux, France and Germany is used. In a first step of simulations, all measures are implemented separately. In a second step, combinations of both RES-E supporting and CO₂ mitigating measures are simulated and discussed. Significant indirect effects are demonstrated, especially for RES-E supporting measures on the reduction of CO₂ emissions. Interactions between different measures show that the price level of quantity-based measures can be strongly influenced.     

Fossil energy savings and GHG mitigation potentials of ethanol as a gasoline substitute in Thailand

One of the Thai government's measures to promote ethanol use is excise tax exemption, making gasohol cheaper than gasoline. The policy in favour of biofuels is being supported by their contribution to fossil energy savings and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. An analysis of energy balance (EnB), GHG balance and GHG abatement cost has been done to evaluate molasses-based ethanol (MoE) in Thailand. A positive EnB of 19.2 MJ/L implies that MoE is a good substitute for gasoline, effective in fossil energy savings. GHG balance assessment based on the baseline scenario shows that emissions are most likely to increase with the substitution. Scenarios using biogas captured from spent wash treatment and rice husk to substitute coal used in ethanol conversion give encouraging results in improving the GHG balance. However, the higher price of MoE over gasoline currently has resulted in high GHG abatement costs, even under the best-case scenario. Compared to the many other climate strategies relevant to Thailand, MoE is much less cost effective. Governed by the rule of supply and demand, a strong fluctuation in molasses price is considered the main cause of volatile MoE price. Once supplies are stable, the trend of price drops would make MoE a reasonable option for national climate policy.     

Estimating the potential CO2 mitigation from agricultural energy efficiency in the United States

Energy efficiency in agriculture is an underanalyzed aspect of a potential climate change mitigation strategy. According to the Fourth Assessment Report, experts report only medium agreement and medium evidence that energy efficiency can provide substantial reductions (Smith et al. 2007). This paper estimates the CO₂ mitigation potential achievable through improvements in energy efficiency in the US agriculture sector. The data are presented in three formats: the cost data or break-even points of each technology, a marginal abatement supply curve expressed in terms of reduction in energy use by fuel category, and a marginal abatement supply curve expressed in terms of CO₂ emission reductions by fuel category. The largest sources of energy use in the sector were identified as motors used in irrigation systems or other pumping operations; farm machinery such as tractors used in daily farm operations; and space conditioning, such as HVAC systems for livestock and crop-drying systems.

Analysing the interactions between renewable energy promotion and energy efficiency support schemes: The impact of different instruments and design elements

CO₂ emissions reduction, renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency are three main energy/environmental goals, particularly in Europe. Their relevance has led to the implementation of support schemes in these realms. Their coexistence may lead to overlaps, synergies and conflicts between them. The aim of this paper is to analyse the interactions between energy efficiency measures and renewable energy promotion, whereas previous analyses have focused on the interactions between emissions trading schemes (ETS) and energy efficiency measures and ETS and renewable energy promotion schemes. Furthermore, the analysis in this paper transcends the “certificate” debate (i.e., tradable green and white certificates) and considers other instruments, particularly feed-in tariffs for renewable electricity. The goal is to identify positive and negative interactions between energy efficiency and renewable electricity promotion and to assess whether the choice of specific instruments and design elements within those instruments affects the results of the interactions.     

Rice straw as a renewable energy source in India, Thailand, and the Philippines: Overall potential and limitations for energy contribution and greenhouse gas mitigation

Rice is a widely grown crop in the South and South-East Asia that leaves substantial quantity of straw in the field. The aim of this paper is to assess the quantity of rice straw produced, estimate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions based on its current uses, and assess its possible energy potential and related GHG emissions mitigation potential. Updated statistics on rough rice production are used in this study in combination with the literature values on Straw-to-Grain Ratio (SGR) to quantify the amount of rice straw produced in the three countries of focus. It is estimated that 97.19, 21.86, and 10.68 Mt of rice straw residue are produced in India, Thailand, and the Philippines, respectively.In India, 23% of rice straw residue produced is surplus and is either left in the field as uncollected or to a large extent open-field burnt. About 48% of this residue produced is subjected to open-field burning in Thailand, and in the Philippines it is 95%. The GHG emissions contribution through open-field burning of rice straw in India, Thailand, and the Philippines are 0.05%, 0.18%, and 0.56%, and the mitigated GHG emissions when generated electricity is used would be 0.75%, 1.81%, and 4.31%, respectively, when compared to the total country GHG emissions.     

The role of nuclear energy in Lithuania under various post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes

The article aims to evaluate the potential role of nuclear energy in Lithuania under various post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes. Seeking to achieve this target the analysis of possible energy sector development scenarios in Lithuania was performed and CO₂ emission projections for these scenarios were developed. The analysis of post-Kyoto climate change mitigation architectures was performed and the requirements of these possible climate change mitigation regimes for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in Lithuania were assessed. Based on these assessments the potential role of new nuclear power in Lithuania was identified under various future climate change mitigation regimes.     

Fostering a renewable energy technology industry: An international comparison of wind industry policy support mechanisms

This article examines the importance of national and sub-national policies in supporting the development of successful global wind turbine manufacturing companies. We explore the motivations behind establishing a local wind power industry, and the paths that different countries have taken to develop indigenous large wind turbine manufacturing industries within their borders. This is done through a cross-country comparison of the policy support mechanisms that have been employed to directly and indirectly promote wind technology manufacturing in 12 countries. We find that in many instances there is a clear relationship between a manufacturer's success in its home country market and its eventual success in the global wind power market. Whether new wind turbine manufacturing entrants are able to succeed will likely depend in part on the utilization of their turbines in their own domestic market, which in turn will be influenced by the annual size and stability of that market. Consequently, policies that support a sizable, stable market for wind power, in conjunction with policies that specifically provide incentives for wind power technology to be manufactured locally, are most likely to result in the establishment of an internationally competitive wind industry.     

Analysis of change in electric energy cost with using renewable energy sources in Gökceada, Turkey: An island example

In this study, electric requirement of Gökceada, the biggest island of Turkey is analyzed that how can it be supplied with renewable energy sources. In order to consider the optimal system configuration of hybrid or non-hybrid renewable energy system, the HOMER program is used. At relevant studies which are done about renewable energy sources, it is seen that cost analysis are done according to annual average values. But in this study, HOMER program is used in order to make the system which is generated with computer, as real as possible. On the other studies, it is found out that various changes which are occurred in the year cannot be added to the system. With HOMER; the effect of values which vary by the time like electric load, wind speed and solar radiation, is considered and than the electric system are modelled. For each of these data, 8760 values are formed in HOMER. HOMER cannot model transient changes which is smaller than 1 h. However; it is expressed that, hourly data are sufficient in order to analyze the system like this. In this study; systems which are composed of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, auxiliary tools are modelled with considered various scenarios. Grid connection or diesel generators for backup power are also modelled. Values of components which form the renewable system of Gökceada, are determined by the simulations. The excess energy which occurs when the energy source is bigger than the load, can be sold to the grid and so, the cost of energy can be reduced. According to the simulation results; it is seen that, energy costs of wind energy systems are lower for Gökceada. It is revealed that wind energy is advantageous in Gökceada especially with grid sales according to the grid connected scenario.     

A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems

This paper includes a review of the different computer tools that can be used to analyse the integration of renewable energy. Initially 68 tools were considered, but 37 were included in the final analysis which was carried out in collaboration with the tool developers or recommended points of contact. The results in this paper provide the information necessary to identify a suitable energy tool for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy-systems under different objectives. It is evident from this paper that there is no energy tool that addresses all issues related to integrating renewable energy, but instead the ‘ideal’ energy tool is highly dependent on the specific objectives that must be fulfilled. The typical applications for the 37 tools reviewed (from analysing single-building systems to national energy-systems), combined with numerous other factors such as the energy-sectors considered, technologies accounted for, time parameters used, tool availability, and previous studies, will alter the perception of the ‘ideal’ energy tool. In conclusion, this paper provides the information necessary to direct the decision-maker towards a suitable energy tool for an analysis that must be completed.     

Three options to calculate the percentage renewable energy: An example for a EU policy debate

The European Commission proposed a renewable energy directive with binding targets for the percentage renewable energy, usually calculated with the primary energy method. This method has the disadvantage that for hydro and wind electricity production is counted, whereas for thermal electricity the higher input to power plants is counted. Therefore, the Commission looked for an alternative: the final energy method. Also this method has disadvantages. Firstly, electricity consumption is weighed equally to fuel consumption for heat and transport, neglecting higher primary energy demand for electricity. Secondly, non-energy consumption of energy commodities is neglected, artificially raising the percentage renewable energy. Therefore, I introduce a simple substitution method, which measures renewable energy by comparison with hypothetical equivalent conventional energy. Calculations for EU-27 show that the method strongly affects the contributions of different sectors (electricity, heat and transport), sources and countries. Concluding, any credible calculation method should reflect the trade off between conventional and renewable primary energy. A simple substitution method fulfills this condition, contrary to the primary and final energy method. Using these biased methods may result in policies that are inefficient in terms of saving conventional fuels and avoiding CO₂ emissions, the main underlying goals of the proposed directive.     

Climate change mitigation with integration of renewable energy resources in the electricity grid of New South Wales,Australia

The implementation of climate change mitigation strategies may significantly affect the current practices for electricity network operation. Increasing penetration of renewable energy generation technologies into electricity networks is one of the key mitigation strategies to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Additional climate change mitigation strategies can also contribute to emission reduction thereby supplementing the renewable energy generation participation, which may be limited due to technical constraints of the network. In this paper, the penetration requirements for different renewable energy generation resources are assessed while concurrently examining other mitigation strategies to reduce overall emissions from electricity networks and meet requisite targets. The impacts of climate change mitigation strategies on the demand and generation mix are considered for facilitating the penetration of renewable generation. New climate change mitigation indices namely change in average demand, change in peak demand, generation flexibility and generation mix have been proposed to measure the level of emission reduction by incorporating different mitigation strategies. The marginal emissions associated with the individual generation technologies in the state of New South Wales (NSW) are modelled and the total emissions associated with the electricity grid of NSW are evaluated.     

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and energy balances of sugarcane ethanol production in Mexico

The purpose of this work was to estimate GHG emissions and energy balances for the future expansion of sugarcane ethanol fuel production in Mexico with one current and four possible future modalities. We used the life cycle methodology that is recommended by the European Renewable Energy Directive (RED), which distinguished the following five system phases: direct Land Use Change (LUC); crop production; biomass transport to industry; industrial processing; and ethanol transport to admixture plants. Key variables affecting total GHG emissions and fossil energy used in ethanol production were LUC emissions, crop fertilization rates, the proportion of sugarcane areas that are burned to facilitate harvest, fossil fuels used in the industrial phase, and the method for allocation of emissions to co-products. The lower emissions and higher energy ratios that were observed in the present Brazilian case were mainly due to the lesser amount of fertilizers applied, also were due to the shorter distance of sugarcane transport, and to the smaller proportion of sugarcane areas that were burned to facilitate manual harvest. The resulting modality with the lowest emissions of equivalent carbon dioxide (CO_2e) was ethanol produced from direct juice and generating surplus electricity with 36.8 kgCO_2e/GJ_ethanol. This was achieved using bagasse as the only fuel source to satisfy industrial phase needs for electricity and steam. Mexican emissions were higher than those calculated for Brazil (27.5 kgCO_2e/GJ_ethanol) among all modalities. The Mexican modality with the highest ratio of renewable/fossil energy was also ethanol from sugarcane juice generating surplus electricity with 4.8 GJ_ethanol/GJ_fossil.