Energy,environmental and economic comparison of different powertrain/fuel options using well-to-wheels assessment,energy and external costs – European market analysis

The well-to-wheels assessment is widely used in the automotive sector to analyze the efficiency and competitiveness of different powertrain/fuel options. The paper proposes a global index that takes into account both the energy and environmental aspects on an uniform basis, through the assignment of the costs associated to the energy and to the pollutant emissions. The European market is analyzed and other pollutants (NO_x, PM and SO_x) are added to the traditional well-to-wheels evaluations (energy and GHG). The proposed well-to-wheels global index offers a useful place-list that takes into account both energy and environmental aspects and, at the current market conditions, it results that the energy cost prevails (70–85%) over the environmental costs, and among the analyzed external costs, the main contribution is due to the GHG emissions. Natural gas-derived fuels seem to be the most promising. The global index for battery electric vehicle from a European mix are closely linked to the driving range. Conventional biofuels are very critical at present, while significant improvement of the well-to-wheels global index is foreseen for when new generation biofuels will be mature (2030 forecast). In short, even though the proposed global index is not an exhaustive index, it could be a useful tool for decision makers.     

The impact of international GHG trading regimes on penetration of new energy technologies and feasibility to implement EU Energy and Climate Package targets

The EU's new energy and environment policy - agreed by government leaders in their Council meeting in March 2007 - established a political agenda to tackle three core energy objectives: sustainability, economic competitiveness and security of supply. A triad of specific policies addresses these challenges: first, the 20/20/20 targets of the EU; then, the Second Strategic Energy Review of the European Commission; and finally, plans to liberalise energy markets. The European Union's ‘20/20/20′ targets for 2020: reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% comparing with 1990 level (to become a 30% reduction if other major global economies join), increase the share of renewables in the final energy consumption to 20% and to achieve 20% improvement in energy efficiency compared to the level in 2020 if existing trends were to continue.The aim of the paper is to analyse the feasibility of EU to implement 20/20/20 targets under the various international GHG trading regimes. GHG trading regimes were addressed by developing 10 energy scenarios until 2020 for EU by applying several energy modelling tools ranging from top down partial equilibrium to detailed technology based bottom up models.     

External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios

This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, and CO₂ from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24–55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9–26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%.     

Review of wind energy use in Algeria

Most scientists now agree that human-induced global climate change poses a serious threat to both society and the Earth's ecosystems. Renewable energy holds the key to future prosperity and a healthy global environment and is considered as a promising way to solve the problem of environmental pollution such as major environmental accidents, water pollution, maritime pollution, land use and sitting impact, radiation and radioactivity, solid waste disposal, hazardous air pollutants, ambient air quality (CO, CO₂, SO_x, NO_x effluent gas emissions), acid rain, stratospheric ozone depletion, and global warming (GHG). Solar, wind and hydrogen power can be considered as potential renewable energy sources in Algeria. The share of renewable energy sources in Algeria primary energy supply is relatively low compared with European countries, though the trends of development are positive. One of the main strategic priorities of New Energy Algeria (NEAL) which is Algeria's renewable energy agency (government, Sonelgaz and Sonatrach), is striving to achieve a share of renewable energy sources in primary energy supply of 10–12% by 2010. IEA projects that the fastest growing sources of energy will be supplied by renewables. Much of this capacity will be installed in developing nations where solar and wind electric power is already competitive. Clearly, the nation that can capture a leadership position has potential for substantial economic returns. The article presents a review of the present wind energy situation and assessed potential of wind energy sources in Algeria in particular the southwest region of Algeria (Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf).     

Assessment of externalities related to global and local air pollutants with the NEEDS-TIMES Italy model

This work is aimed to illustrate the potentiality of the multi-region NEEDS-TIMES modelling platform, in the economic evaluation of the environmental damages due to air pollution. In particular the effects of external costs on the least-cost optimised energy system configuration were analysed in a national case study with the NEEDS-TIMES Italy model, considering the externalities related to local and global air pollutants (NO_x, SO₂, VOC, particulates and GHGs). Different scenarios were compared to emphasise the role of external costs in the achievement of strategic environmental targets. The main results obtained are discussed, focusing on the changes in energy fuel mix as well as in local air pollutants and GHG emissions, highlighting the main conclusions in terms of policy strategies.     

Evaluation of ecological impacts of synthetic natural gas from wood used in current heating and car systems

A promising option to substitute fossil energy carriers by renewables is the production of synthetic natural gas (SNG) from wood, as this results in a flexible energy carrier usable via existing infrastructure in gas boilers or passenger cars. The comprehensive life cycle-based ecological impact of SNG is investigated and compared with standard fuels delivering the same service (natural gas, fuel oil, petrol/diesel, and wood chips). Life cycle impact assessment methodologies and external costs from airborne emissions provide measures of overall damage. The results indicate that the SNG system has the best ecological performance if the consumption of fossil resources is strongly weighted. Otherwise natural gas performs best, as its supply chain is energy-efficient and its use produces relatively low emissions. Wood systems are by far the best in terms of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), where SNG emits about twice as much as the wood chips system. The main negative aspects of the SNG system are NO_x and particulate emissions and the relatively low total energy conversion efficiency resulting from the additional processing to transform wood to gas. Direct wood combustion has a better ecological score when highly efficient particulate filters are installed. SNG performs better than oil derivatives with all the evaluation methods used. External costs for SNG are the lowest as long as GHG are valued high. SNG should preferably be used in cars, as the reduction of overall ecological impacts and external costs when substituting oil-based fuels is larger for current cars than for heating systems.     

Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model

The Global MARKAL-Model (GMM), a multi-regional “bottom-up” partial equilibrium model of the global energy system with endogenous technological learning, is used to address impacts of internalisation of external costs from power production. This modelling approach imposes additional charges on electricity generation, which reflect the costs of environmental and health damages from local pollutants (SO₂, NO_x) and climate change, wastes, occupational health, risk of accidents, noise and other burdens. Technologies allowing abatement of pollutants emitted from power plants are rapidly introduced into the energy system, for example, desulphurisation, NO_x removal, and CO₂ scrubbers. The modelling results indicate substantial changes in the electricity production system in favour of natural gas combined cycle, nuclear power and renewables induced by internalisation of external costs and also efficiency loss due to the use of scrubbers. Structural changes and fuel switching in the electricity sector result in significant reduction of emissions of both local pollution and CO₂ over the modelled time period. Strong decarbonisation impact of internalising local externalities suggests that ancillary benefits can be expected from policies directly addressing other issues then CO₂ mitigation. Finally, the detailed analysis of the total generation cost of different technologies points out that inclusion of external cost in the price of electricity increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources and fossil power plants with emission control.     

Reduction in greenhouse gas and other emissions from ship engines: Current trends and future options

The impact of ship emission reductions can be maximised by considering climate, health and environmental effects simultaneously and using solutions fitting into existing marine engines and infrastructure. Several options available enable selecting optimum solutions for different ships, routes and regions. Carbon-neutral fuels, including low-carbon and carbon-negative fuels, from biogenic or non-biogenic origin (biomass, waste, renewable hydrogen) could resemble current marine fuels (diesel-type, methane and methanol). The carbon-neutrality of fuels depends on their Well-to-Wake (WtW) emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) including carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide emissions (N₂O). Additionally, non-gaseous black carbon (BC) emissions have high global warming potential (GWP). Exhaust emissions which are harmful to health or the environment need to be equally removed using emission control achieved by fuel, engine or exhaust aftertreatment technologies. Harmful emission species include nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur oxides (SO_x), ammonia (NH₃), formaldehyde, particle mass (PM) and number emissions (PN). Particles may carry polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals, which cause serious adverse health issues. Carbon-neutral fuels are typically sulphur-free enabling negligible SO_x emissions and efficient exhaust aftertreatment technologies, such as particle filtration. The combinations of carbon-neutral drop-in fuels and efficient emission control technologies would enable (near-)zero-emission shipping and these could be adaptable in the short- to mid-term. Substantial savings in external costs on society caused by ship emissions give arguments for regulations, policies and investments needed to support this development.     

Reduction of electricity use in Swedish industry and its impact on national power supply and European CO2 emissions

Decreased energy use is crucial for achieving sustainable energy solutions. This paper presents current and possible future electricity use in Swedish industry. Non-heavy lines of business (e.g. food, vehicles) that use one-third of the electricity in Swedish industry are analysed in detail. Most electricity is used in the support processes pumping and ventilation, and manufacturing by decomposition. Energy conservation can take place through e.g. more efficient light fittings and switching off ventilation during night and weekends. By energy-carrier switching, electricity used for heat production is replaced by e.g. fuel. Taking technically possible demand-side measures in the whole lines of business, according to energy audits in a set of factories, means a 35% demand reduction. A systems analysis of power production, trade, demand and conservation was made using the MODEST energy system optimisation model, which uses linear programming and considers the time-dependent impact on demand for days, weeks and seasons. Electricity that is replaced by district heating from a combined heat and power (CHP) plant has a dual impact on the electricity system through reduced demand and increased electricity generation. Reduced electricity consumption and enhanced cogeneration in Sweden enables increased electricity export, which displaces coal-fired condensing plants in the European electricity market and helps to reduce European CO₂ emissions. Within the European emission trading system, those electricity conservation measures should be taken that are more cost-efficient than other ways of reducing CO₂ emissions. The demand-side measures turn net electricity imports into net export and reduce annual operation costs and net CO₂ emissions due to covering Swedish electricity demand by 200 million euros and 6 Mtonne, respectively. With estimated electricity conservation in the whole of Swedish industry, net electricity exports would be larger and net CO₂ emissions would be even smaller.     

Role of energy efficiency standards in reducing CO2 emissions in Germany: An assessment with TIMES

Energy efficiency is widely viewed as an important element of energy and environmental policy. Applying the TIMES model, this paper examines the impacts of additional efficiency improvement measures (as prescribed by the ACROPOLIS project) over the baseline, at the level of individual sectors level as well as in a combined implementation, on the German energy system in terms of energy savings, technological development, emissions and costs. Implementing efficiency measures in all sectors together, CO₂ reduction is possible through substitution of conventional gas or oil boilers by condensing gas boilers especially in single family houses, shifting from petrol to diesel vehicles in private transport, increased use of electric vehicles, gas combined cycle power plants and CHP (combined heat and power production) etc. At a sectoral level, the residential sector offers double benefits of CO₂ reduction and cost savings. In the transport sector, on the other hand, CO₂ reduction is the most expensive, using bio-fuels and methanol to achieve the efficiency targets.     

The analysis of renewable energy policies for the Taiwan Penghu island administrative region

Taiwan dependents on thermal power for 70% of its total energy supply. The high consumption of fossil fuel increases the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and consequently causes global warming and climate change. Thus, Taiwan has proposed new regulations and measures such as “The Framework for Sustainable Energy Policy - An Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Action Plan“and” The Master Plan of Energy Conservation and Carbon Mitigation” for domestic carbon reduction. These regulations indicate that the urgency to promote renewable energy to the public to achieve sizable reduction of CO₂ emissions. The objective of this paper is to develop a cost-benefit evaluation methodology based on system dynamics (SD) modelling for any given administrative region to evaluate renewable energy policies. This research develops specific SD models with causal feedback loops to assess the effectiveness of policies and the corresponding benefits for solar energy carbon reduction. The solar energy applications on Taiwan's largest island, Penghu, are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The SD approaches and the evaluation of the results serve as a reference to promote solar energy in the other regions with reduced costs and reliability.     

Monetary value of the environmental and health externalities associated with production of ethanol from biomass feedstocks

This research is aimed at monetizing the life cycle environmental and health externalities associated with production of ethanol from corn, corn stover, switchgrass, and forest residue. The results of this study reveal current average external costs for the production of 1 l of ethanol ranged from $0.07 for forest residue to $0.57 for ethanol production from corn. Among the various feedstocks, the external costs of PM₁₀, NO_X, and PM_2.5 are among the greatest contributors to these costs. The combustion of fossil fuels in upstream fertilizer and energy production processes is the primary source of these emissions and their costs, especially for corn ethanol. The combined costs of emissions associated with the production and use of nitrogen fertilizer also contribute substantially to the net external costs. For cellulosic ethanol production, the combustion of waste lignin to generate heat and power helps to keep the external costs lower than corn ethanol. Credits both for the biogenic carbon combustion and displacement of grid electricity by exporting excess electricity substantially negate many of the emissions and external costs. External costs associated with greenhouse gas emissions were not significant. However, adding estimates of indirect GHG emissions from land use changes would nearly double corn ethanol cost estimates.     

Analysis of policies to reduce oil consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from the US transportation sector

Even as the US debates an economy-wide CO₂ cap-and-trade policy the transportation sector remains a significant oil security and climate change concern. Transportation alone consumes the majority of the US’s imported oil and produces a third of total US Greenhouse-Gas (GHG) emissions. This study examines different sector-specific policy scenarios for reducing GHG emissions and oil consumption in the US transportation sector under economy-wide CO₂ prices. The 2009 version of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a general equilibrium model of US energy markets, enables quantitative estimates of the impact of economy-wide CO₂ prices and various transportation-specific policy options. We analyze fuel taxes, continued increases in fuel economy standards, and purchase tax credits for new vehicle purchases, as well as the impacts of combining these policies. All policy scenarios modeled fail to meet the Obama administration’s goal of reducing GHG emissions 14% below 2005 levels by 2020. Purchase tax credits are expensive and ineffective at reducing emissions, while the largest reductions in GHG emissions result from increasing the cost of driving, thereby damping growth in vehicle miles traveled.     

Energy efficiency and carbon trading potential in Malaysia

The damage inflicted by global warming is happening far faster than any experts have predicted or anticipated. Since the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997 to fight global warming through reducing global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission, the world climate pattern has worsened at an accelerated rate beyond expectation. While developed countries sanctioned by the protocol are committed to achieve their GHG emission targets, developing nations play similar roles on a voluntary basis. Since almost all of the GHGs emissions come from energy sector, it is obvious that energy policy and related regulatory frameworks play imperative roles in realizing the Kyoto Protocol objectives. With carbon dioxide (CO₂) touted as the main remedy in the GHGs emissions, it is only reasonable that carbon trading becomes the essential element in the Protocol. Recently a milestone is marked in the Kyoto Protocol with the 2009 Climate Summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, with all participating countries further committed themselves in fulfilling the protocol's obligations before the commitment period due in 2012. It is worthwhile to review the various energy efficiency efforts and carbon trading potential in Malaysia, a country which although does not bear any obligation, has ratified and lauded the cause of the protocol. Malaysia as a developing nation is seen as a direct beneficiary from carbon trading and in this paper, how the country energy policies have evolved over the years with concerted efforts from the government to minimize its carbon footprint through numerous energy efficiency implementations are discussed in length. The impact from the 2009 Climate Summit on Malaysia is also briefed.     

Energy conservation on Nova Scotia farms: Baseline energy data

Direct energy use is a small but essential component of the farm greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. Improvements in energy efficiency and renewable energy can help reduce farm operating costs, improve air quality and reduce GHG emission levels. Energy conservation is especially important in Nova Scotia (NS), Canada, where fossil fuels, particularly coal, remain the primary source of electrical generation. Responses from mail surveys were used to establish baseline data on a cross-section of NS farms with respect to direct energy costs and usage to demonstrate differences in farm type and size. A 32% (N=224) response rate was achieved. Based on this survey, the average energy bill for a NS farm in 2004 was $11,228, with most (61.7%) of their energy cost attributable to the purchase of petroleum products. Almost all farmers (96.4%) indicated that their energy cost was a primary concern. Farmers identified the operation of vehicles and mobile equipment, as well as lighting and heating as having the greatest energy requirements in their operations. Energy usage varied with farm type and size. NS farms consumed 1.2 petajoules of energy equivalent to 127 kilotonnes of CO₂ with 52.7% of emissions from electricity use in 2004.     

Life cycle GHG assessment of fossil fuel power plants with carbon capture and storage

The evaluation of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from power generation with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a critical factor in energy and policy analysis. The current paper examines life cycle emissions from three types of fossil-fuel-based power plants, namely supercritical pulverized coal (super-PC), natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), with and without CCS. Results show that, for a 90% CO₂ capture efficiency, life cycle GHG emissions are reduced by 75–84% depending on what technology is used. With GHG emissions less than 170 g/kWh, IGCC technology is found to be favorable to NGCC with CCS. Sensitivity analysis reveals that, for coal power plants, varying the CO₂ capture efficiency and the coal transport distance has a more pronounced effect on life cycle GHG emissions than changing the length of CO₂ transport pipeline. Finally, it is concluded from the current study that while the global warming potential is reduced when MEA-based CO₂ capture is employed, the increase in other air pollutants such as NO_x and NH₃ leads to higher eutrophication and acidification potentials.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?

In June 2015, China announced its post-2020 reduction targets, its central element being the intention to peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 or earlier. China has implemented several policies to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study provides emission projections for China up to 2030 given current policies and a selected set of enhanced policies, and compares the results with projected CO₂ emission trajectories that are consistent with the announced target for 2030. The projections are based on existing scenarios and energy system and land use model calculations. We project that the 2030 CO₂ emission level consistent with a peak in CO₂ emissions by 2030 ranges from 11.3 to 11.8 GtCO₂. The corresponding total GHG emission level ranges from 13.5 to 14.0 GtCO₂e in 2030. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets, as our projected total GHG emission level under current policies ranges from 14.7 to 15.4 GtCO₂e by 2030. However, an illustrative set of enhancement policy measures, all of which are related to national priorities, leads to projected GHG emission levels from 13.1 to 13.7 GtCO₂e by 2030 – and thus below the levels necessary for peaking CO₂ emissions before 2030.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from Spanish motorway transport: Key aspects and mitigation solutions

The current increasing importance of road transport in the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has led to the adoption of diverse policies for the mitigation of global warming. These policies focus in two directions, depending on whether they involve the reduction of emissions or the mitigation through carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestration. In this paper, the Tier 3 methodology from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme and the Environment Agency (EMEP/EEA) was applied to determine the evolution of Spanish motorway GHG emissions in the period 2005–2010. According to the results, though the average daily traffic (ADT) is the major parameter, the average fleet age and vehicle size also affect the level of emissions. Data analysis also revealed a clear connection between the decrease in European trade volume during the financial crisis and the GHG release, despite its temporary character. Among the three improvement scenarios evaluated, reduced speed limit seems the most direct measure while the consequences of afforestation strongly depend on the traffic density of the stretch of the motorway considered. Finally, technological improvement requires a drastic change in the fleet to obtain substantial decrease. The combination of different policies would allow a more robust strategy with lower GHG emissions.     

Modeling of current and future energyintensity and greenhouse gas emissions ofthe Lebanese industrial sector: assessmentof mitigation options

Greenhouse gas emissions in Lebanon mainly come from energy activities, which are responsible for 85% of all CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from energy use in manufacturing industries and construction represent 24% of the total emissions of the energy sector. Lebanese manufacturers' accounted for 39.15 million gigajoules of fuel consumption for heat and power generation in 1994, including both fuel used directly and fuel burned remotely to generate electricity used in the sector. In addition to being processed by combustion, CO₂ is generated in calcining of carbonates in the manufacture of cement, iron and glass. Electricity, the most expensive form of energy, represented 25.87% of all fuel used for heat and power. Residual fuel oil and diesel, which are used mainly in direct combustion processes, represent 26.85 and 26.55% of all energy use by industry, respectively. Scenarios for future energy use and CO₂ emissions are developed for the industrial sector in Lebanon. The development of the baseline scenario relied on available data on major plants' outputs, and on reported amounts of fuels used by the industrial sector as a whole. Energy use in industry and the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Lebanon are projected in baseline scenarios that reflect technologies, activities and practices that are likely to evolve from the base year 1994 to year 2040. Mitigation work targets a 15% of CO₂ emissions from the baseline scenario by year 2005 and a 20–30% reduction of CO₂ emissions by year 2040. The mitigation options selected for analysis are screened on the basis of GHG emissions and expert judgement on the viability of their wide-scale implementation and economic benefits. Using macroeconomic assessment and energy price assumptions, the final estimates of potential GHG emissions and reduction costs of various mitigation scenarios are calculated. The results show that the use of efficient electric motors, efficient boilers and furnaces with fuel switching from fuel oil to natural gas has the largest impact on GHG emissions at a levelized annual cost that ranges from −20 to −5 US$/tonne of CO₂ reduced. The negative costs are indicative of direct savings obtained in energy cost for those mitigation options.     

Impact assessment of road fleet transitions on emissions: The case study of a medium European size country

This paper aims to examine the impacts of fleet composition changes on emission due to the introduction of different road transportation policies in a medium size European country (Portugal) applying an ex-post analysis (e.g. policies based on fuel pricing, car scraping, car taxation). A baseline scenario was compared with a counterfactual scenario in order to understand what would occur in the absence of the introduction of those policies. For each scenario, four approaches were assessed using economic effects and/or human health costs. HC, CO, NO_x, PM and CO₂ emissions from passenger cars and light duty vehicles were evaluated. The results show high statistical significance (p≤0.05) between CO emissions and different vehicle features as vehicle age, fuel type and engine classes. The same pattern was observed between the average vehicle age and HC, NO_x and PM. After the implementation of road traffic policies, the average emission factors of the fleet decreased 28–62% for HC, CO, NO_x, PM and 20–39% for CO₂. However, if a counterfactual scenario would be implemented, the reduction would be 20–80% and 26–55% higher, respectively. The results demonstrates that although were recorded some benefits, the fleet characteristics distribution were more environmental friendly in 2001 than in 2011.