Uncertain R&D,backstop technology and GHGs stabilization

This paper analyses optimal investments in innovation when dealing with a stringent climate target and with the uncertain effectiveness of R&D. The innovation needed to achieve the deep cut in emissions is modeled by a backstop carbon-free technology whose cost depends on R&D investments. To better represent the process of technological progress, we assume that R&D effectiveness is uncertain. By means of a simple analytical model, we show how accounting for the uncertainty that characterizes technological advancement yields higher investments in innovation and lower policy costs. We then confirm the results via a numerical analysis performed with a stochastic version of WITCH, an energy–economy–climate model. The results stress the importance of a correct specification of the technological change process in economy–climate models.     

R&D of the ground-coupled heat pump technology in China

The ground-coupled heat pump (GCHP) systems have been identified as one of the best sustainable energy technologies for space heating and cooling in residential and commercial buildings. In this paper, research on and development of the GCHP technology in China are summarized. New models are presented for efficient thermal analysis of ground heat exchangers, of which one- and two-dimensional solid cylindrical source models and their analytical solutions are devised to deal with pile ground heat exchangers. Analytical solutions are also derived for vertical and inclined finite line source models as well as for a groundwater advection model. Explicit solutions of a quasi-three-dimensional model can be used to better evaluate the thermal resistance inside boreholes. Studies on hybrid GCHP systems and the thermal response test in China are also commented.     

Clean technology R&D and innovation in emerging countries—Experience from China

This paper touches upon two key issues related to clean technology deployment in emerging countries: what is the life cycle of R&D and innovation? And where does the R&D funding come from? The paper holds that the innovation climate, system and process in emerging countries do not follow the same trajectory as those in developed countries. Crafting an innovation model that is adapted to the needs and conditions of emerging countries thus is critical. Through revealing the four phases of an innovation life cycle in emerging countries, the paper highlights the dominant role of the public sector in clean technology R&D.     

The politics and policy of energy system transformation—explaining the German diffusion of renewable energy technology

To arrest climate change, a transition to a low-carbon economy must take place quite rapidly, within a century at most. Thus, the rate of diffusion of new technologies such as those for the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources becomes a central issue. This article explores the reasons for the particularly rapid spread of two such technologies in Germany, wind turbines and solar cells. We trace this diffusion to the nature of the policy instruments employed and to the political process which led to the adoption of these instruments. The analysis demonstrates how the regulatory framework is formed in a ‘battle over institutions’ where the German parliament, informed and supported by an advocacy coalition of growing strength, backed support policies for renewables sourced electricity against often reluctant governments and the opposition from nuclear and coal interests. It also demonstrates that this major political and environmental achievement carries a modest price if we consider total costs to society, i.e. including both subsidies to coal and the negative external economies of coal.     

A model-based assessment of the impact of revitalised R&D investments on the European power sector

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of enhanced research and development (R&D) efforts for a set of low-carbon power technologies on the development of the European energy sector. It applies a methodology using the concept of Two-Factor-Learning, which quantitatively links trends in technology cost to both accumulated R&D investments and production volumes. The impacts of the latter on the energy sector are then simulated in a consistent manner with the POLES global energy model. On this basis, it compares the total system costs of an assumed increase in worldwide R&D investments that for the EU are in line with proposals made in its European Strategic Energy Technology Plan to a baseline development. It finds that an increase in research efforts at a global level will contribute to reducing the costs of currently less mature low-carbon technologies, thus accelerating their market entry. When comparing two scenarios that both fulfil the EU's 2020 energy and climate objectives and differing only in their R&D investment levels, the reduced technology costs allow EU support policies for renewables and carbon values to be reduced, and the cumulative (discounted) benefit of the accelerated research efforts is positive in the long term.     

Public R&D and commercialization of energy-efficient technology: A case study of Japanese projects

Are public R&D programs really effective in developing innovative technologies? How many technologies developed in these programs have been successfully commercialized? What are the key factors for successful commercialization and diffusion in the market? This paper tries to answer these questions by examining the Japanese experience of public R&D in demand-side energy efficiency, focusing on two major projects conducted in the 1980s and 1990s. It is found that of the 34 technologies developed in the two projects, only seven have been commercialized so far, four of those seven have only a very limited number of installations, and only one has a growing market. The results show that, while public R&D investments have a high risk of failure, they can bring new technologies to the market after a certain lead time. In addition, several factors resulting in the success or failure of commercialization/diffusion are identified, such as long-term R&D support by the government, a marketing strategy to respond to and influence market demand, and combination of R&D and deployment policy.     

Decision frameworks and the investment in R&D

In this paper we provide an overview of decision frameworks aimed at crafting an energy technology Research & Development portfolio, based on the results of three large expert elicitation studies and a large scale energy-economic model. We introduce importance sampling as a technique for integrating elicitation data and large IAMs into decision making under uncertainty models. We show that it is important to include both parts of this equation – the prospects for technological advancement and the interactions of the technologies in and with the economy. We find that investment in energy technology R&D is important even in the absence of climate policy. We illustrate the value of considering dynamic two-stage sequential decision models under uncertainty for identifying alternatives with option value. Finally, we consider two frameworks that incorporate ambiguity aversion. We suggest that these results may be best used to guide future research aimed at improving the set of elicitation data.     

Subsidy programs on diffusion of solar water heaters: Taiwan’s experience

Financial incentives are essentially one of the key factors influencing diffusion of solar water heaters in many countries. Two subsidy programs were initiated by the government of Taiwan in 1986 (1986–1991) and 2000 (2000–present), respectively. Those long-term national programs are considered to be the driving force on local market expansion. In 2008, the regional subsidy programs for solar water heaters were announced by Kaohsiung city and Kiemen county, which resulted in the growth in sales. A revised subsidy was also initiated by the government of Taiwan in 2009. The subsidy is 50% more. However, the tremendous enlargement of market size with a high-level ratio of subsidy over total installation cost might result in a negative impact on a sustainable SWH industry and long-term development of the local market, which is associated with system design and post-installation service. This paper aims to address the relative efficiency and pitfalls of those national and regional programs.     

浅析摩托车新品开发

本文根据市场发展规律和摩托车技术的不断进步，解析了摩托车新品开发的过程。     

Accounting for quality: Issues with modeling the impact of R&D on economic growth and carbon emissions in developing economies

The literature on climate policy modeling has paid scant attention to the important role that R&D is already playing in industrializing countries such as China, where R&D investments are targeting not only productivity improvements but also enhancements in the quality and variety of products. We focus here on the effects of quality-enhancing innovation on energy use and GHG emissions in developing countries. We construct an analytical model to show that efficiency-improving and quality-enhancing R&D have opposing influences on energy and emission intensities, with the efficiency-improving R&D having an attenuating effect and quality-enhancing R&D having an amplifying effect. We find that the balance of these opposing forces depends on the elasticity of upstream output with respect to efficiency-improving R&D, the elasticity of downstream output with respect to upstream quality-enhancing R&D occurring upstream, and the relative shares of emissions-intensive inputs in the costs of production of upstream versus downstream industries. We employ a computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation of the Chinese economy to illustrate the difficulties that arise in incorporating these results into models for climate policy analysis, and we offer a simple remedy.     

In-depth analysis on R&D investment and strategy on PV in South Korea

Photovoltaics (PV) is an eco-friendly and green technology, as a renewable energy source, with the aim of minimizing carbon dioxide emission into the atmosphere. The Korean government has financed various domestic installations as well as research and development (R&D) programs to enter and develop a lead in the worldwide PV market. In this study, R&D investments in the area of PV are analyzed in terms of the respective ministry, performer, research characteristics, PV materials and output levels in detail. The Korean government in the Fiscal year (FY) 2010 provided $178 million dollars from R&D funds for PV development. 74% of the R&D funds in the context of PV has been invested by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy (MKE). Expenditures for R&D programs in terms of PV are mainly funded by small-medium companies (40%), and the portion of the R&D investment in crystalline silicon solar cells is the highest in terms of materials. In spite of the high levels of R&D investment in PV, the output for commercialization was relatively lower compared to the R&D input in FY 2009–2010. With these results, we suggested to develop various solutions to improve the R&D investment efficiency for PV technology in Korea.     

Real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme

This paper aims to perform a real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme. Strategic value of thermonuclear fusion technology is estimated here based on the expected cash flows from construction and operation of fusion power plants and the real options value arising due to managerial flexibility and the underlying uncertainty. First, a basic investment option model of Black–Scholes type is being considered. Then, a fuzzy compound real R&D option model is elaborated, which reflects in a better way the multi-stage nature of the programme and takes into account the imprecision of information as one of the components of the overall programme uncertainty. Two different strategies are compared: “Baseline” corresponding to a relatively moderate pace of fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment activities vs. “Accelerated” strategy, which assumes a rapid demonstration and massive deployment of fusion. The conclusions are drawn from the model calculations regarding the strategic value of fusion energy R&D and the advantages of accelerated development path.     

Hydrogen market penetration feasibility assessment: Mobility and natural gas markets in the US,Europe, China and Japan

Making it possible to bridge between different sectors thanks to its versatility, hydrogen is a promising enabler for a multi-sectorial decarbonisation. The remaining question is how feasible it is to substitute the current carbonized technologies already prevailing in the markets by new low-carbon hydrogen systems that can be more expensive today and by which timeframe hydrogen can reach the required competitiveness.The market entry feasibility in the transport and natural gas sectors is assessed for USA, Europe, Japan, and China, and for different timeframes (up to 2040). According to the results, the most promising market in the four regions is hydrogen for mobility. This market even presents a potential room for taxation in the medium term. In contrast, blending with natural gas struggles to reach competitiveness. Both industrial and political efforts are required in the two markets in order to lower the costs and prepare a suitable market penetration environment.     

The effects of environmental sustainability and R&D on corporate risk-taking: International evidence

In this paper, we ask an important question: can firm-level environmentally sustainable practices and research and development (R&D) intensity individually and jointly affect corporate risk-taking? Using firm-level data from 41 countries spanning 2002–2013, we find environmentally sustainable practices and R&D intensity enhance the risk-taking of firms. Voluntary sustainable practices generate a positive and significant effect on corporate risk-taking. We also find that country-level determinants play a complementary role. Firms operating in countries with better intellectual property rights protection and overall infrastructure benefit more from environment-friendly practices and R&D intensity. Further, we find that ESI has a positive effect on risk taking in countries with higher CO₂ emissions per capita, energy usages per capita and more stringent environmental policies. These results are robust after correcting for potential endogeneity, alternative measures of R&D intensity or ESI score. Overall, our findings provide key insights on policy recommendations at the national and international levels.     

生物质能利用技术的经济性分析

对国内生物质能利用技术的现状进行了简要介绍和分类，以经济评价为基础，对生物质直接燃烧、户用沼气池、生物质气化发电、大中型养殖场沼气工程和垃圾发电等生物质能技术进行了综合分析，提出了根据地方实际，发展不同生物质能技术的建议。     

The impact of government subsidies and enterprises’ R&D investment: A panel data study from renewable energy in China

In this research, we aim to understand the influence of government subsidies on enterprises’ research and development (R&D) investment behavior, particularly in China’s renewable energy sector. We are also interested in examining how the attributes of enterprise ownership act as a moderating variable for the relationship between government subsidies and R&D investment behavior. Three classical panel data analysis models including the pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) model, the fixed effect model and the random effect model are employed. We find that government subsidies have a significant crowding out influence on enterprises’ R&D investment behavior and that the influence is further moderated by the attributes of enterprise ownership. Moreover, a panel threshold regression model is used to demonstrate how the influence of government subsidies on enterprises’ R&D investment behavior will change when government subsidies increase. Two thresholds, 0.6% and 10.1%, are identified. We recommend that relevant government departments should motivate enterprise R&D investment behavioral intention by increasing subsidies within a certain range. Different attributes of enterprise ownership should also be considered as part of policy reform and re-structuring relating to government subsidies.     

Engineering,institutions, and the public interest: Evaluating product quality in the Kenyan solar photovoltaics industry

Solar sales in Kenya are among the highest per capita among developing countries. While this commercial success makes the Kenya market a global leader, product quality problems have been a persistent concern. In this paper, we report performance test results from 2004 to 2005 for five brands of amorphous silicon (a-Si) photovoltaic (PV) modules sold in the Kenya market. Three of the five brands performed well, but two performed well below their advertised levels. These results support previous work indicating that high-quality a-Si PV modules are a good economic value. The presence of the low performing brands, however, confirms a need for market institutions that ensure the quality of all products sold in the market. Prior work from 1999 indicated a similar quality pattern among brands. This confirms the persistent nature of the problem, and the need for vigilant, long-term approaches to quality assurance for solar markets in Kenya and elsewhere. Following the release of our 2004/2005 test results in Kenya, the Kenya Bureau of Standards moved to implement and enforce performance standards for both amorphous and crystalline silicon PV modules. This appears to represent a positive step towards the institutionalization of quality assurance for products in the Kenya solar market.     

A strategy and protocol to increase diffusion of energy related innovations into the mainstream of housing associations

To reduce human causes of global warming, large scale implementation of innovative products that save energy is necessary. Innovative products first reach the early market actors who are driven by a visionary attitude. Hereafter, the products must reach the much larger mainstream market whose actors are driven by a pragmatic attitude. Many innovations, however, only appeal to the visionary early market and do not meet the more pragmatic needs of the mainstream. For that reason, innovations often fall in a “chasm” between the early market and the mainstream and fail to reach the mainstream. We developed a strategy and a protocol to aid governmental agencies in influencing the mainstream members of housing associations to adopt energy conservation innovations. Our method is an adaptation of an existing marketing method and applicable to other target groups. The first step in crossing this chasm is to find a niche segment in the mainstream as the starting point for winning the rest of the mainstream. By surveying the target group and analyzing the data, we identified 29 housing associations (234 interviewed) that belong to this niche segment. Identifying the niche segment and its determinants of behaviour is part of our 4-step protocol that leads to adapting the innovative product to meet the needs of the niche and setting up a marketing plan to win the rest of the mainstream.     

The effects of expert selection,elicitation design,and R&D assumptions on experts' estimates of the future costs of photovoltaics

Expert elicitations of future energy technology costs can improve energy policy design by explicitly characterizing uncertainty. However, the recent proliferation of expert elicitation studies raises questions about the reliability and comparability of the results. In this paper, we standardize disparate expert elicitation data from five EU and US studies, involving 65 experts, of the future costs of photovoltaics (PV) and evaluate the impact of expert and study characteristics on the elicited metrics. The results for PV suggest that in-person elicitations are associated with more optimistic 2030 PV cost estimates and in some models with a larger range of uncertainty than online elicitations. Unlike in previous results on nuclear power, expert affiliation type and nationality do not affect central estimates. Some specifications suggest that EU experts are more optimistic about breakthroughs, but they are also less confident in that they provide larger ranges of estimates than do US experts. Higher R&D investment is associated with lower future costs. Rather than increasing confidence, high R&D increases uncertainty about future costs, mainly because it improves the base case (low cost) outcomes more than it improves the worst case (high cost) outcomes.