Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Revisited evidences

In this paper, an attempt is being made to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of Bangladesh using the vector error correction specified Granger causality test to search their short-run, long-run and joint causal relationships for the period of 1971–2008. Empirical findings reveal that there is a short-run unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita GDP without feedback. The presence of a positive short-run causality explains that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic activity in Bangladesh. Likewise, results from joint causality exhibit the same as in short-run. By contrast, long-run results show a bi-directional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. These findings can provide essential policy insights to design immediate and long-term growth prospect for Bangladesh keeping in mind its present planned growth strategy and dismal power and energy sector.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth: a time series experience for 17 African countries

While the availability of electricity by itself is not a panacea for the economic and social problems facing Africa, the supply of electricity is nevertheless believed to be a necessary requirement for Africa's economic and social development. This paper tests the long-run and causal relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for 17 African countries for the period 1971–2001 using a newly developed cointegration test proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) and using a modified version of the Granger causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The advantage of using these two approaches is that they both avoid the pre-testing bias associated with conventional unit root and cointegration tests. The empirical evidence shows that there was a long-run relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita for only 9 countries and Granger causality for only 12 countries. For 6 countries there was a positive uni-directional causality running from real GDP per capita to electricity consumption per capita; an opposite causality for 3 countries and bi-directional causality for the remaining 3 countries. The result should, however, be interpreted with care as electricity consumption accounts for less than 4% of total energy consumption in Africa and only grid-supplied electricity is taken into account.     

电力消费与经济发展关系国际实证分析——基于长期历史数据的考察

实证分析表明,不论以市场汇率法还是以购买力平价法表示,从长期视角审视,英国、美国、日本人均电力消费与人均GDP的长期历史趋势呈现出快速增长和慢速增长两个不同的阶段,韩国仍然处于快速增长的第一阶段,而且定量分析表明人均电力消费与人均GDP在这两个阶段都具有较高的线性拟合优度;英国、美国、日本电力强度的长期历史趋势呈现倒"V"形模式,韩国电力强度仍然处于倒"V"形的上升阶段;电力消费长期趋势的转变与这些国家经济结构的调整有着重要联系。     

Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models

The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model.The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population.A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to −0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to −0.24 and −0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values.In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models.A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of ±1% for the best case and ±11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account.     

Economic growth and electricity consumption in Cote d'Ivoire: Evidence from time series analysis

This paper examines the causal relationship between the electric power industry and the economic growth of Cote d'Ivoire. Using the data from 1971 to 2008, a test was conducted for the cointegration and Granger causality within an error correction model. Results from these tests reveal a bidirectional causality between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP. A unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to industry value added appears in the short run. Economic growth is found to have great effects on electricity consumption and a reverse causality from electricity to economic growth may also appear. In the long run, there is a unidirectional causality between electricity and both GDP and industry value added. From these findings, we conclude that the country will be energy dependent in the long run and must therefore secure the production network from shortfalls to ensure a sustainable development path. Accordingly, government should adopt policies aimed at increasing the investment in the sector by stepping up electricity production from existing and new energy sources.     

Electricity demand,GDP and employment: evidence from Italy

This paper applies time series methodologies to examine the causal relationship among electricity demand, real per capita GDP and total labor force for Italy from 1970 to 2009. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is reported, before discussing the data and introducing the econometric techniques used. The results of estimation indicate that one cointegrating relationship exists among these variables. This equilibrium relation implies that, in the long-run, GDP and labor force are correlated negatively, as well as GDP and electricity. Moreover, there is a bi-directional Granger causality flow between real per capita GDP and electricity demand; while labor force does not Grangercause neither real per capita GDP nor electricity demand. This implies that electricity demand and economic growth are jointly determined at the same time for the Italian case. The forecast error variance decomposition shows that forecast errors in real per capita GDP are mainly caused by the uncertainty in GDP itself, while forecast errors in labor force are mainly resulted from the labor force itself, although aggregate income and electricity are important, too.     

The relationship between energy demand and real GDP growth rate: The role of price asymmetries and spatial externalities within 34 countries across the globe

The aim of this paper is to empirically explore the relationship between energy demand and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and to investigate the role of regional externalities on per capita Final Energy Consumption (FEC) in 34 countries during the period from 2005 to 2013. The paper utilizes a Dynamic Panel Generalized Method of Moments (DPGGM) approach and spatial econometric techniques in order to analyse the effect of real GDP growth rate on FEC through an Error Correction Model (ECM) and to examine clustered patterns of energy consumption. The results show that a) the demand is elastic both in the industrial and the household/services sectors, b) electricity and natural gas are demand substitutes, c) the relationship between real GDP growth rate and per capita energy consumption exhibits an inverted U-shape for all the sample countries under scrutiny (34 countries, Eurozone and EU28), but not for all the employed sectors of the economy, d) price (electricity and gas) and GDP growth asymmetries are supported from the employed parametric tests, and, e) distance does not affect per capita FEC, but economic neighbours have a strong positive effect.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth: Exploring panel-specific differences

In this paper, we examine the long- and short-run dynamics between electricity consumption and economic activities, using panel data of per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of 160 countries for the period of 1980–2010, accounting for the degree of electricity dependence and the level of urbanization. Furthermore, in order to capture the differences in this relationship, the full sample is divided into various subsamples based on countries' income levels, regional locations and OECD memberships. This framework is argued and found to be appropriate since the causal links and inferences arising therefrom differ considerably among the subsamples, which led us to conclude that the electricity-growth nexus is highly sensitive to regional differences, countries' income levels, urbanization rates and supply risks.     

从18个城市看我国人均能耗和单位GDP能耗水平

以“清洁能源行动”18个试点示范城市为案例,探讨我国城市人均能耗和单位GDP能耗水平,分析影响我国城市人均能耗和单位GDP能耗水平的关键因素,主要有城市能源消费总量、人均GDP水平、第二产业比重和农村人口比例等。与世界平均水平相比,我国目前人均能耗和单位GDP能耗还有很大差距,节能降耗和发展新能源技术尤为重要。     

On the convergence in China's provincial per capita energy consumption: New evidence from a spatial econometric analysis

The rapid increase in per capita energy consumption is likely to be an important factor affecting the sustainable development of China's economy. In this study, the convergence of per capita energy consumption, which is an important inherent characteristic of China's energy consumption, is investigated using panel data for the period 1994–2014 for 30 Chinese provinces. To control for the potential spatial dependence in energy consumption per capita and introduce dynamics, appropriate spatial dynamic econometric models are employed. The empirical results indicate that there are both absolute and conditional β-convergences in per capita energy consumption across provinces. In addition, there is also evidence for an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita energy consumption and per capita GDP. Therefore, per capita energy consumption would increase when economic development is relatively low. However, per capita energy consumption may decrease after a threshold level of economic development is reached. Among the factors that potential influence provincial energy consumption, the ratio of secondary industry value-added to GDP and the spatial correlation of energy consumptions in neighboring provinces are positively related to energy consumption per capita, while population density and per capita foreign direct investment do not affect energy consumption per capita significantly.     

Electricity consumption and economic development: Are countries converging to a common trend?

This paper studies the dynamic behavior of electricity consumption with special emphasis on their convergence patterns. Individual electricity indicators are modeled by allowing for apparent heterogeneous transitions. Log t convergence test results indicate that all 109 countries converge to a common stochastic trend for electricity intensity while per capita electricity consumption is better explained by a multiple-component model. In the case of 24 advanced economies, there is a strong tendency towards a common component for both indicators. The application of clustering algorithm confirms the presence of club convergence for per capita electricity consumption. In terms of clustering pattern, per capita electricity consumption appears to be remarkably similar to per capita income, widely used measure of economic development.     

Does increasing energy or electricity consumption improve quality of life in industrial nations?

Among the world's nations, per capita energy and electricity consumption is highly correlated with diverse indicators of quality of life. This is often interpreted to mean that additional energy and electricity consumption causes improvements in life quality. Prior analyses of cross-sectional data question this interpretation for industrial nations that already have high per capita energy consumption. The present analysis with longitudinal data shows that among industrial nations, increases in per capita energy and electricity consumption over the past three decades are not associated with corresponding improvements in quality of life.     

Multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption,exports and GDP: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption, exports and gross domestic product (GDP) for a panel of Middle Eastern countries. We find that for the panel as a whole there are statistically significant feedback effects between these variables. A 1 per cent increase in electricity consumption increases GDP by 0.04 per cent, a 1 per cent increase in exports increases GDP by 0.17 per cent and a 1 per cent increase in GDP generates a 0.95 per cent increase in electricity consumption. The policy implications are that for the panel as a whole these countries should invest in electricity infrastructure and step up electricity conservation policies to avoid a reduction in electricity consumption adversely affecting economic growth. Further policy implications are that for the panel as a whole promoting exports, particularly non-oil exports, is a means to promote economic growth and that expansion of exports can be realized without having adverse effects on energy conservation policies.     

The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania,Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach

The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between energy and economic growth in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania from 1980 to 2006 by employing energy use per capita, electric power consumption per capita and real GDP per capita variables. To examine this linkage, we use the two-step procedure from the Engle and Granger model: In first step, we explore the long-run relationships between the variables by using recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Secondly, we employ a dynamic vector error correction (VEC) model to test causal relationships between variables. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between energy use per capita and real GDP per capita and evidence of two-way (bidirectional) strong Granger causality between these variables only in Hungary. On the other hand, the ARDL bounds test results show that there is no a unique long-term or equilibrium relationship between energy consumption variables and real GDP per capita in Albania, Bulgaria and Romania. In other words, no cointegration exists between these variables in these three countries. The econometric analysis suggests that any causal relationships within dynamic error correction model for Albania, Bulgaria and Romania cannot be estimated.     

Is per capita electricity consumption stationary? Time series evidence from OECD countries

This study examines the stationary properties of per capita electricity consumption in which the endogenously determined break points are incorporated in 23 high income OECD countries by using annual data over 1960-2005 period. We utilize Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root test that endogenously determines structural breaks in level and/or trend. We find that 21 country series reject the unit root null hypothesis at the 5% significance level, except for 2 country series. Thus, our empirical findings provide significant evidence that per capita electricity consumption is stationary in almost all countries considered in the study. The stationarity of per capita electricity consumption indicates that it should be possible for the series to forecast future movements in the energy consumption based on the past behaviors of the series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results of the unit root test with multiple structural breaks.     

Energy consumption-economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in China

This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based dynamic OLS to re-investigate the co-movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland China from 1985 to 2007. The empirical results show that there is a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption variables. Furthermore, we investigate two cross-regional groups, namely the east China and west China groups, and get more important results and implications. In the long-term, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0.48–0.50% and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0.41–0.43% in China. The economic growth in east China is energy-dependent to a great extent, and the income elasticity of energy consumption in east China is over 2 times that of the west China. At present, China is subject to tremendous pressures for mitigating climate change issues. It is possible that the GDP per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions would be controlled in a range from 0.2 to 0.3 by the great effort.     

ENERGY AND GDP

Understanding of the role of energy use at the national level requires the understanding of the relationship of energy use to economic activity and social well-being. Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in a country in one year. There is a close relationship between energy supply, energy consumption, and GDP, which indicates the economic development of a country. The living standard of a country is often measured by the per capita GDP. This article presents the evaluations and future projections of energy and energy resources of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The total primary energy supply, total final energy consumption, and energy intensities for supply and consumption are analysed. The energy data for all OECD countries are presented and analyses of the differences in energy and GDP ratios are conducted at an aggregate level by examining differences in the factors that affect the energy intensities. To provide accurate projections for the future, new correlations are developed between average GDP, total primary energy supply, total final consumption, total per capita primary energy supply, total per capita final consumption and total OECD population. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey

This paper examines the long run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption and employment ratio in Turkey by using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results for Turkey over the period 1968–2005 suggest an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at 5% significance level in Turkey. The estimated income elasticity of carbon emissions per capita is ?0.606 and the income elasticity of energy consumption per capita is 1.375. Results for the existence and direction of Granger causality show that neither carbon emissions per capita nor energy consumption per capita cause real GDP per capita, but employment ratio causes real GDP per capita in the short run. In addition, EKC hypothesis at causal framework by using a linear logarithmic model is not valid in Turkish case. The overall results indicates that energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of Turkey.     

Use of ecological footprinting to explore alternative domestic energy and electricity policy scenarios in an Irish city-region

The purpose of this paper is to measure the ecological footprint (EF) of energy and electricity consumption by the residents of an Irish city-region, in terms of the land area required to sequester carbon emissions from energy and electricity consumption and to support energy infrastructure and development. The EF was also used to analyse the impact of potential scenarios and policies and results were compared with the business as usual (BAU) projection in order to identify the optimal policy measure. It was found that the total EF for domestic energy and electricity consumption by Limerick residents increased by 7% from 0.125 global hectares (gha) per capita in 1996 to 0.134 gha per capita in 2002.     

Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries

This study applies the panel stationarity test developed by [Carrion-i-Silvestre et al 2005. Breaking the panels: An application to GDP per capita. Econometrics Journal 8, 159–175] to examine the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for a panel of 13 Pacific Island countries over the period 1980–2005. This test has the advantage that it allows for multiple structural breaks at unknown dates that can differ across countries and can account for all forms of cross-sectional correlation between countries. The conclusion from the study is that energy consumption per capita in approximately 60% of countries is stationary and that energy consumption per capita for the panel as a whole is stationary. The study offers several suggestions for modelling energy consumption and policy-making in the Pacific Islands.