Spanish energy roadmap to 2020: Socioeconomic implications of renewable targets

The European Union has established challenging targets for the share of renewable energies to be achieved by 2020; for Spain, 20% of the final energy consumption must be from renewable sources at such time. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the consequences for the electricity sector (in terms of excess cost of electricity, investment requirements, land occupation, CO₂ emissions and overcapacity of conventional power) of several possibilities to comply with the desired targets. Scenarios are created from different hypotheses for energy demand, biofuel share in final energy in transport, contribution of renewables for heating and cooling, renewable electricity generation (generation mix, deployment rate, learning curves, land availability) and conventional power generation (lifetime of current installations, committed deployment, fossil fuel costs and CO₂ emissions cost). A key input in the estimations presented is the technical potential and the cost of electricity from renewable sources, which have been estimated in previous, detailed studies by the present authors using a methodology based on a GIS (Geographical Information System) and high resolution meteorological data. Depending on the scenario, the attainment of the targets will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity from 19% to 37% with respect to 2007.     

Long-term CO2 emissions reduction target and scenarios of power sector in Taiwan

This study analyses a series of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions abatement scenarios of the power sector in Taiwan according to the Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines, which was released by Executive Yuan in June 2008. The MARKAL-MACRO energy model was adopted to evaluate economic impacts and optimal energy deployment for CO₂ emissions reduction scenarios. This study includes analyses of life extension of nuclear power plant, the construction of new nuclear power units, commercialized timing of fossil fuel power plants with CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technology and two alternative flexible trajectories of CO₂ emissions constraints. The CO₂ emissions reduction target in reference reduction scenario is back to 70% of 2000 levels in 2050. The two alternative flexible scenarios, Rt4 and Rt5, are back to 70% of 2005 and 80% of 2005 levels in 2050. The results show that nuclear power plants and CCS technology will further lower the marginal cost of CO₂ emissions reduction. Gross domestic product (GDP) loss rate in reference reduction scenario is 16.9% in 2050, but 8.9% and 6.4% in Rt4 and Rt5, respectively. This study shows the economic impacts in achieving Taiwan's CO₂ emissions mitigation targets and reveals feasible CO₂ emissions reduction strategies for the power sector.     

Interactions and implications of renewable and climate change policy on UK energy scenarios

As a response to the twin challenges of climate change mitigation and energy security, the UK government has set a groundbreaking target of reducing the UK’s economy-wide carbon emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. A second key UK energy policy is to increase the share of final energy consumption from renewables sources to 15% by 2020, as part of the wider EU Renewable Directive. The UK’s principle mechanisms to meet this renewable target are the Renewable Obligation (RO) in the electricity sector, the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO), and most recently the Renewable Heat Programme (RHP) for buildings. This study quantifies a range of policies, energy pathways, and sectoral trade-offs when combining mid- and long-term UK renewables and CO₂ reduction policies. Stringent renewable policies are the binding constraints through 2020. Furthermore, the interactions between RO, RTFO, and RHP policies drive trade-offs between low carbon electricity, bio-fuels, high efficiency natural gas, and demand reductions as well as resulting 2020 welfare costs. In the longer term, CO₂ reduction constraints drive the costs and characteristics of the UK energy system through 2050.     

Status of thermal power generation in India—Perspectives on capacity,generation and carbon dioxide emissions

India’s reliance on fossil-fuel based electricity generation has aggravated the problem of high carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, primarily coal, in the country’s energy sector. The objective of this paper is to analyze thermal power generation in India for a four-year period and determine the net generation from thermal power stations and the total and specific CO₂ emissions. The installed generating capacity, net generation and CO₂ emissions figures for the plants have been compared and large generators, large emitters, fuel types and also plant vintage have been identified. Specific emissions and dates of commissioning of plants have been taken into account for assessing whether specific plants need to be modernized. The focus is to find out areas and stations which are contributing more to the total emissions from all thermal power generating stations in the country and identify the overall trends that are emerging.     

Electricity consumption and CO2 capture potential in Spain

In this paper, different electricity demand scenarios for Spain are presented. Population, income per capita, energy intensity and the contribution of electricity to the total energy demand have been taken into account in the calculations. Technological role of different generation technologies, i.e. coal, nuclear, renewable, combined cycle (CC), combined heat and power (CHP) and carbon capture and storage (CCS), are examined in the form of scenarios up to 2050. Nine future scenarios corresponding to three electrical demands and three options for new capacity: minimum cost of electricity, minimum CO₂ emissions and a criterion with a compromise between CO₂ and cost (CO₂-cost criterion) have been proposed. Calculations show reduction in CO₂ emissions from 2020 to 2030, reaching a maximum CO₂ emission reduction of 90% in 2050 in an efficiency scenario with CCS and renewables. The contribution of CCS from 2030 is important with percentage values of electricity production around 22–28% in 2050. The cost of electricity (COE) increases up to 25% in 2030, and then this value remains approximately constant or decreases slightly.     

Modelling the UK residential energy sector under long-term decarbonisation scenarios: Comparison between energy systems and sectoral modelling approaches

The UK government has set a groundbreaking target of a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 2050. Scenario and modelling assessment of this stringent target consistently finds that all sectors need to contribute to emissions reductions. The UK residential sector accounts for around 30% of the total final energy use and more than one-quarter of CO₂ emissions. This paper focuses on modelling of the residential sector in a system wide energy–economy models (UK MARKAL) and key UK sectoral housing stock models. The UK residential energy demand and CO₂ emission from the both approaches are compared. In an energy system with 60% economy-wide CO₂ reductions, the residential sector plays a commensurate role. Energy systems analysis finds this reduction is primarily driven by energy systems interactions notably decarbonisation of the power sector combined with increased appliance efficiency. The stock models find alternate decarbonisation pathways based on assumptions related to the future building stock and behavioural changes. The paper concludes with a discussion on the assumptions and drivers of emission reductions in different models of the residential energy sector.     

Multi-objective optimization model for sustainable Indonesian electricity system: Analysis of economic,environment, and adequacy of energy sources

This paper presents a multi-objective optimization model for a long-term generation mix in Indonesia. The objective of this work is to assess the economic, environment, and adequacy of local energy sources. The model includes two competing objective functions to seek the lowest cost of generation and the lowest CO₂ emissions while considering technology diffusion. The scenarios include the use of fossil reserves with or without the constraints of the reserve to production ratio and exports. The results indicate that Indonesia should develop all renewable energy and requires imported coal and natural gas. If all fossil resources were upgraded to reserves, electricity demand in 2050 could be met by domestic energy sources. The maximum share of renewable energy that can be achieved in 2050 is 33% with and 80% without technology diffusion. The least cost optimization produces lower generation costs than the least CO₂ emissions, as well as the combined scenario. Total CO₂ emissions in 2050 are five to six times as large as current emissions. The least CO₂ emissions scenario can reduce almost half of the CO₂ emissions of the least cost scenario by 2050. The proposed multi-objective optimization model leads some optimal solutions for a more sustainable electricity system.     

A model for the development of a power production system in Greece,Part II: Where RES meet EU targets

This paper studies the electricity production system of the Greek Interconnected Electric System using a development model created with the software package WASP-IV. The period of study is from 2009 till 2030. It consists of three scenarios using three different criteria: energy, environmental, and economic. The three scenarios are the Renewable Energy Source (RES), the lignite–RES, and the natural gas–RES. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is carried out for annual growth rate of electricity consumption and load demand. It is considered that there are no other energy sources beyond those already in use (lignite, oil, natural gas, biomass, solar, wind, and hydropower), no CO₂ capture policies are implemented, and electricity production from RES meets targets of the European Union in 2020. The present paper completes the study started with the paper “A model for the development of a power production system in Greece, Part I: RES do not meet EU targets”. It is shown that with regard to fossil fuels, the use of natural gas is the best choice. The use of RES, though environmentally friendly, is an expensive solution.     

A missing link? The case of Norway and Sweden: Does increased renewable energy production impact domestic greenhouse gas emissions?

This article examines how the EU׳s RES directive¹ will impact domestic greenhouse gas emissions in Norway and Sweden by 2020. The directive aims for a higher RES share in the energy consumption mix, and Norway and Sweden have established a common electricity certificate scheme to help achieve these RES goals. In terms of how these two national RES plans will impact domestic emissions by 2020, factors such as nuclear power, consumption changes and the energy balance must be considered. The most practical approach to evaluate the plans’ impact on emissions is to focus on changes in carbon-based consumption within the three directive sectors.The Norwegian RES action plan will not affect domestic emissions unless the electricity surplus generated by the certificate market is used to phase out fossil fuels in domestic sectors beyond the scope of the RES directive. The use of electricity to phase out fossil fuel consumption in the offshore sector would substantially reduce Norwegian emissions figures. The Swedish plan would positively impact Swedish greenhouse gas emissions; however, this impact is limited, primarily because a substantial increase in energy consumption is expected.     

Energy efficiency,CO2 emission performance and technology gaps in fossil fuel electricity generation in Korea: A meta-frontier non-radial directional distance functionanalysis

This paper proposes a meta-frontier non-radial directional distance function to model energy and CO₂ emission performance in electricity generation. This approach allows for the consideration of the group heterogeneity of electricity generation, non-radial slacks, and undesirable outputs simultaneously. We extend several standardized indices to measure total-factor energy efficiency, CO₂ emission performance, and technology gaps in electricity generation. We estimate the potential reductions in energy use and CO₂ emissions under different technology assumptions. We conduct an empirical analysis of fossil fuel electricity generation in Korea by using the proposed approach. The results indicate that coal-fired power plants show higher levels of total-factor energy efficiency and CO₂ emission performance than oil-fired ones. Under the meta-frontier technology assumption, coal-fired power plants show a smaller technology gap than oil-fired ones. This suggests that the Korean government should promote technological innovation to reduce technology gaps for oil-fired plants, thereby improving energy and CO₂ emission performance and meeting emission reduction targets in the electricity generation industry.     

Decarbonizing Europe's power sector by 2050 — Analyzing the economic implications of alternative decarbonization pathways

The European Union aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80–95% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. The transition towards a low-carbon economy implies the almost complete decarbonization of Europe's power sector, which could be achieved along various pathways. In this paper, we evaluate the economic implications of alternative energy policies for Europe's power sector by applying a linear dynamic electricity system optimization model in over 36 scenarios. We find that the costs of decarbonizing Europe's power sector by 2050 vary between 139 and 633 bn €₂₀₁₀, which corresponds to an increase of between 11% and 44% compared to the total system costs when no CO₂ reduction targets are implemented. In line with economic theory, the decarbonization of Europe's power sector is achieved at minimal costs under a stand-alone CO₂ reduction target, which ensures competition between all low-carbon technologies. If, however, renewable energies are exempted from competition via supplementary renewable energy (RES-E) targets or if investments in new nuclear and CCS power plants are politically restricted, the costs of decarbonization significantly rise. Moreover, we find that the excess costs of supplementary RES-E targets depend on the acceptance of alternative low carbon technologies. For example, given a complete nuclear phase-out in Europe by 2050 and politically implemented restrictions on the application of CCS to conventional power plants, supplementary RES-E targets are redundant. While in such a scenario the overall costs of decarbonization are comparatively high, the excess costs of supplementary RES-E targets are close to zero.     

Hybrid modelling of long-term carbon reduction scenarios for the UK

This paper summarizes the development of a new hybrid MARKAL–Macro (M–M) energy system model for the UK. This hybrid model maintains the technological and sectoral detail of a bottom-up optimisation approach with aggregated energy demand endogeneity and GDP impacts from a single sector neoclassical growth model. The UK M–M model was developed for underpinning analysis of the UK's groundbreaking mandatory long-term − 60% carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction target. Hybrid modelling illustrates that long-term UK CO₂ emission reductions are feasible. However, there are endemic uncertainties, notably a trade-off between behavioural and technological decarbonisation options with resultant energy system impacts in the requirements for zero-carbon electricity. UK M–M model sensitivity runs further illustrate the range of energy system interactions including the deployment of the UK's limited CO₂ storage capacity, alternate timing of power vs. transport sectoral reductions, the relative ease of switching between electricity generation portfolios, and substitution opportunities between natural gas and coal. The macro-economic cost impacts range from 0.3% to 1.5% reduction in UK GDP by 2050, with higher cost estimates strongly influenced by pessimistic assessments of future low-carbon technologies. However cost impacts from the UK M–M model are likely to be in the lower range for stringent CO₂ reduction pathways as the simplicity of the reduced form macro-linkage omits competitiveness and transitional impacts on the UK economy.     

Impact of the German nuclear phase-out on Europe's electricity generation—A comprehensive study

The combination of the ambitious German greenhouse gas reduction goals in the power sector and the nuclear phase-out raises many questions concerning the operational security of the German electricity generation system. This paper focusses on the technical feasibility (electricity generation and transmission) and CO₂-impact of the German nuclear phase-out on the short term (2012–2022).A detailed electricity generation simulation model is employed, including the German transmission grid and its international connections. A range of different conventional and renewable energy sources (RES) scenarios is considered. Results are presented for the change in generation mix, on the flows on the transmission network and on operational reliability issues.The scenario analysis shows that nuclear generation will be replaced mainly by coal- and lignite-based generation. This increases the CO₂-intensity of the German electricity sector. Furthermore, the results indicate that the German electricity export will decrease and under certain circumstances, the system becomes infeasible. Keeping some nuclear power plants online, would mitigate these effects. The amount of electricity generated from RES is shown to be the main driver for grid congestion.     

Electricity savings and CO2 emissions reduction in buildings sector: How important the network losses are in the calculation?

The increase of CO₂ emissions and the emerging climate change are the most serious environmental problems nowadays and limit economic development. This increase is mainly attributed to the growing world population and the related growth in energy demand, which results in the vast consumption of fossil fuels in the power generation sector. Significant actions for the implementation of energy saving measures have been adopted worldwide for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. CO₂ calculators have been developed to evaluate the effectiveness of these measures, relating energy to CO₂ emissions. These calculators include in most cases the entire power system. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the role of the electricity networks' losses in the actual CO₂ reduction potential, following the implementation of energy saving measures, in relation to the network's voltage level in which the infrastructure is connected. Buildings are representative due to their volume and to different voltage levels of power supply. The work presented was conducted in the framework of the Intelligent Energy Europe Programme entitled Bottom Up to Kyoto (BUtK), as a part of an evaluation of the CO₂ emissions' reduction potential through energy savings measures in 6 municipalities of EU's New Member States.     

Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model

The Global MARKAL-Model (GMM), a multi-regional “bottom-up” partial equilibrium model of the global energy system with endogenous technological learning, is used to address impacts of internalisation of external costs from power production. This modelling approach imposes additional charges on electricity generation, which reflect the costs of environmental and health damages from local pollutants (SO₂, NO_x) and climate change, wastes, occupational health, risk of accidents, noise and other burdens. Technologies allowing abatement of pollutants emitted from power plants are rapidly introduced into the energy system, for example, desulphurisation, NO_x removal, and CO₂ scrubbers. The modelling results indicate substantial changes in the electricity production system in favour of natural gas combined cycle, nuclear power and renewables induced by internalisation of external costs and also efficiency loss due to the use of scrubbers. Structural changes and fuel switching in the electricity sector result in significant reduction of emissions of both local pollution and CO₂ over the modelled time period. Strong decarbonisation impact of internalising local externalities suggests that ancillary benefits can be expected from policies directly addressing other issues then CO₂ mitigation. Finally, the detailed analysis of the total generation cost of different technologies points out that inclusion of external cost in the price of electricity increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources and fossil power plants with emission control.     

Evaluation of lifecycle CO2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century under various nuclear scenarios

The status and prospects of the development of Japanese nuclear power are controversial and uncertain. Many deem that nuclear power can play key roles in both supplying energy and abating CO₂ emissions; however, due to severe nuclear accidents, public acceptance of nuclear power in Japan has not been fully obtained. Moreover, deregulation and liberalization of the electricity market impose pressure on large Japanese electric power companies with regard to both the operation of nuclear power plants and the development of the nuclear fuel cycle. Long-term Japanese CO₂ reduction strategies up to 2100 are of environmental concern and are socially demanded under the circumstances described above. Taking these factors into account, we set the following two objectives for this study. One is to estimate lifecycle CO₂ (LCCO₂) emissions from Japanese nuclear power, and the other is to evaluate CO₂ emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century by quantifying the relationship between LCCO₂ emissions and scenarios for the adoption of nuclear power. In the pursuit of the above objectives, we first create four scenarios of Japanese adoption of nuclear power, that range from nuclear power promotion to phase-out. Next, we formulate four scenarios describing the mix of the total electricity supply in Japan till the year 2100 corresponding to each of these nuclear power scenarios. CO₂ emissions from the electric power sector in Japan till the year 2100 are estimated by summing those generated by each respective electric power technology and LCCO₂ emission intensity. The LCCO₂ emission intensity of nuclear power for both light water reactors (LWR) and fast breeder reactors (FBR) includes the uranium fuel production chain, facility construction/operation/decommission, and spent fuel processing/disposal. From our investigations, we conclude that the promotion of nuclear power is clearly a strong option for reducing CO₂ emissions by the electric power sector. The introduction of FBR has the effect of further reducing CO₂ emissions in the nuclear power sector. Meeting energy demand and reducing CO₂ emissions while phasing out nuclear power appears challenging given its importance in the Japanese energy supply.     

Renewable energy and its impact on thermal generation

Electricity production from renewable sources generally displaces thermal generation, which leads to lower CO₂ emissions in the power sector. However, the intermittent nature of many renewable technologies in combination with less residual demand leads to greater inefficiencies in the operation of existing fossil power plants. This inefficiency translates into a higher rate of emissions relative to output. In this paper we focus on Italian power installations between 2005 and 2014. Using panel econometrics, we show that a 10% increase in photovoltaics and wind infeed has reduced yearly CO₂ emissions of the average thermal installation by about 2% while the average plants emissions relative to its output have increased by about 0.3%.     

Carbon capture and storage potential in coal-fired plant in Malaysia—A review

Secure, reliable and affordable energy supplies are necessary for sustainable economic growth, but increases in associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and the associated risk of climate change are a cause of major concern. Experts have projected that the CO₂ emissions related to the energy sector will increase 130% by 2050 in the absence of new policies or supply constraints as a result of increased fossil fuel usage. To address this issue will require an energy technology revolution involving greater energy efficiency, increased renewable energies and nuclear power, and the near-decarbonisation of fossil fuel-based power generation. Nonetheless, fossil fuel usage is expected to continue to dominate global energy supply. The only technology available to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from large-scale fossil fuel usage is carbon capture and storage (CCS), an essential part of the portfolio of technologies that is needed to achieve deep global emission reductions. However, CCS technology faces numerous issues and challenges before it can be successfully deployed. With Malaysia has recently pledged a 40% carbon reduction by 2020 in the Copenhagen 2009 Climate Summit, CCS technology is seen as a viable option in order to achieve its target. Thus, this paper studies the potential and feasibility of coal-fired power plant with CCS technology in Malaysia which includes the choices of coal plants and types of capture technologies possible for implementation.     

Estimating the electricity prices,generation costs and CO2 emissions of large scale wind energy exports from Ireland to Great Britain

The share of wind generation in the Irish and British electricity markets is set to increase by 2020 due to renewable energy (RE) targets. The United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland have set ambitious targets which require 30% and 40% of electricity demand to come from RE, mainly wind, by 2020, respectively. Ireland has sufficient indigenous onshore wind energy resources to exceed the RE target, while the UK faces uncertainty in achieving its target. A possible solution for the UK is to import RE directly from large scale onshore and offshore wind energy projects in Ireland; this possibility has recently been explored by both governments but is currently on hold. Thus, the aim of this paper is to estimate the effects of large scale wind energy in the Irish and British electricity markets in terms of wholesale system marginal prices, total generation costs and CO₂ emissions. The results indicate when the large scale Irish-based wind energy projects are connected directly to the UK there is a decrease of 0.6% and 2% in the Irish and British wholesale system marginal prices under the UK National Grid slow progression scenario, respectively.